Bitcoin Illiquid Supply Hits An All-Time High

South Park

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Quote from: GreenStox on December 01, 2023, 03:56:25 AM

but I think those who hold for a long period of more than 5 years do not have dependents or are already very rich and do not need their money in the near future.
but most of them will buy and sell when they make a profit because they may need the money, or their goal is only to make a profit and is not tied to a long time.

Or maybe just maybe they are just prudent investors that know what they are doing and they are investing what they can afford to lose in this market, while they still keep some cash in reserve in the case a rainy day comes and they do not have to sell their bitcoin at a bad moment, besides while some of their coins may seem to not move at all, they could still hold many more coins on other addresses and they may have cashed out some of those coins before.

GreenStox

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but I think those who hold for a long period of more than 5 years do not have dependents or are already very rich and do not need their money in the near future.
but most of them will buy and sell when they make a profit because they may need the money, or their goal is only to make a profit and is not tied to a long time.

Lucius

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Quote from: Kensure on November 23, 2023, 05:00:30 PM

~snip~
I vividly recall the November 2022 FTX crisis when Bitcoin's price plummeted, critics predicted its demise, and the media celebrated prematurely.

Do you remember what happened before that, that is, didn't we have another crisis that was actually the beginning and cause of the BTC price losing more than 50% of its value? Do Kwon started and Bankman finished, and millions who trusted them lost tens of billions of $.

Quote from: Kensure on November 23, 2023, 05:00:30 PM

Yet, none of this affected Bitcoin holders.They held firm and even increased their holdings over the next year.

I would not agree, because many lost a lot of money due to the above, and due to the economic crisis, many were forced to sell what they had kept for a long time. I think I won't be wrong if I say that the biggest holders are some very powerful people who have millions of BTC in their possession, and they can afford not to sell for a very long time.

Quote from: Kensure on November 23, 2023, 05:00:30 PM

The lesson is clear
Conviction matters. Accumulating and holding onto a scarce asset, regardless of volatility, can yield rewards. Looking ahead, with factors like the halving, potential policy changes, and a potential Bitcoin ETF approval, the next 18-24 months promise excitement. The world is slowly realizing the power of a dedicated group accumulating a scarce asset. it's an intriguing time for Bitcoin. Cheers to what lies ahead. Cheesy

I would agree that a lot of excitement awaits us in the next two years, and although we all hope for positive surprises, let's not forget about black swans, because they appear when you least expect them. As for the world and their understanding, if they haven't understood from 2009 until today, it is unlikely that they will understand in the near future.

hugeblack

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As people realize the value of Bitcoin and that there is an opportunity to increase the price, the majority will tend to choose the option of spending paper money first instead of Bitcoin, as people tend to keep expensive things. It is just like women love gold and spend it only when necessary and not when they want to buy more things, but at some point. You will find yourself wanting to sell.
Therefore, the people who do not sell at next ATH are the ones who look at the value of Bitcoin in the long term and not now, because by all standards, now is a bad time to sell unless you are forced.

Yamane_Keto

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They did not do so either because:

1) Whoever bought may have bought at a price less than $40,000, and therefore, after two years, he is still at a loss.
2) Buy at the bottom and know that the price can still rise.
3) He believes that the price will rise sharply soon.

The common denominator between all these groups is the belief that the price will rise, and this belief will be strengthened as the price of Bitcoin increases from 30,000 to 40,000 to 50,000 during the next 6 months.

YUriy1991

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Well, from what you said in that matter, maybe some people see it a bit strange about the 70% accumulation of Bitcoin which hasn't moved for more than a year as you wrote and several main media also said the same thing but, apart from that, the majority of Bitcoin holders has a still strong long-term belief in Bitcoin's value growth potential. Safe.

Just today we have started reading positive news about the increase in BTC prices after the recent decline. Just wait for bigger action regarding ETF approval later. But, whatever happens, be alert to fomo and also pay attention because price reversals can occur at any time
@ajiz138 say.

ajiz138

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Quote from: Kensure on November 23, 2023, 05:00:30 PM

I vividly recall the November 2022 FTX crisis when Bitcoin's price plummeted, critics predicted its demise, and the media celebrated prematurely.

Critics did not like bitcoin so they celebrated the destruction of bitcoin at that time but not long ago bitcoin rose again and confused those who were anti bitcoin.

They only like fiat that can control public money, usually government people.

Quote from: Kensure on November 23, 2023, 05:00:30 PM

The lesson is clear
Conviction matters. Accumulating and holding onto a scarce asset, regardless of volatility, can yield rewards. Looking ahead, with factors like the halving, potential policy changes, and a potential Bitcoin ETF approval, the next 18-24 months promise excitement. The world is slowly realizing the power of a dedicated group accumulating a scarce asset. it's an intriguing time for Bitcoin. Cheers to what lies ahead. Cheesy

Not only belief as long as you HODL bitcoin must have fundamentals, strategies, how to overcome FUD and much more, of course people with a strong mentality in any resistance to HODL bitcoin can get through it, now there is a lot of news to look forward to of course with the approval of ETFs, halving that will arrive soon, continuing with other positive news that causes prices to soar and the possibility of a new ATH being a record again.

Davidvictorson

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Quote from: adaseb on November 23, 2023, 11:46:50 PM

Another reason why this is happening is because people no longer trust CEX after FTX scandal. The chart shows the illiquid supply greater than 1 year and you can see it went up because last November people withdrew all their coins from exchanges and put them in self custody.

Even if you weren’t part of FTX, the fear would of caused you anyways to self custody and get a hardware wallet. So this chart is not surprising. It will be more interesting what happens when price goes higher and if the supply will drop.

You are very correct adaseb. So many bitcoiners don't want to fall victim to another FTX scandal type. Another reason for this occurrence is that nobody wants to be the pizza guy by selling their bitcoins too early. The result of which the OP has already said, an increase in the number of Bitcoins not moving. We expect a bull run and also expect that the price may be between 80k - 100k therefore nobody wants to sell at 37k now when they could sell at 80k -100k then.

South Park

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Quote from: pinggoki on November 25, 2023, 02:50:54 AM

Quote from: adaseb on November 23, 2023, 11:46:50 PM

Another reason why this is happening is because people no longer trust CEX after FTX scandal. The chart shows the illiquid supply greater than 1 year and you can see it went up because last November people withdrew all their coins from exchanges and put them in self custody.

Even if you weren’t part of FTX, the fear would of caused you anyways to self custody and get a hardware wallet. So this chart is not surprising. It will be more interesting what happens when price goes higher and if the supply will drop.

Should've done this at the time of Mt. Gox but no, people give CEX a chance and now they're embroiled in lawsuit and are trying to chase SBF. It's a good thing that a lot of people are learning that it's never safe to do what they previously do and that as long as it's not their keys then it's really not their coins. Of course you will still be affected and influenced by the scandal even if you aren't part of it because if that can happen to a big CEX like FTX then you know it's also going to happen to other CEX out there. I totally agree with you about how interesting it's going to be when the prices breaks the current resistance and continues to go higher, one thing is sure to happen though, miners are going to be making bank.

While it seems the lesson has been learned and holders are now preferring to keep their coins in self-custody, most likely this is temporary, and there are three reasons why I believe this is the case, short term memory, convenience and believing this could not possibly happen to them, then I really believe that as time passes and the price of bitcoin keeps increasing we will see more and more holders keeping their coins at exchanges as they choose to believe that what happened to the FTX exchange cannot possibly happen again.

pinggoki

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Quote from: adaseb on November 23, 2023, 11:46:50 PM

Another reason why this is happening is because people no longer trust CEX after FTX scandal. The chart shows the illiquid supply greater than 1 year and you can see it went up because last November people withdrew all their coins from exchanges and put them in self custody.

Even if you weren’t part of FTX, the fear would of caused you anyways to self custody and get a hardware wallet. So this chart is not surprising. It will be more interesting what happens when price goes higher and if the supply will drop.

Should've done this at the time of Mt. Gox but no, people give CEX a chance and now they're embroiled in lawsuit and are trying to chase SBF. It's a good thing that a lot of people are learning that it's never safe to do what they previously do and that as long as it's not their keys then it's really not their coins. Of course you will still be affected and influenced by the scandal even if you aren't part of it because if that can happen to a big CEX like FTX then you know it's also going to happen to other CEX out there. I totally agree with you about how interesting it's going to be when the prices breaks the current resistance and continues to go higher, one thing is sure to happen though, miners are going to be making bank.

rat03gopoh

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Quote from: Kensure on November 23, 2023, 05:00:30 PM

The accumulation of 70% of Bitcoin remaining stationary for over a year is a significant milestone. Just think despite Bitcoin's rise from $15,700 to around $37,000 in the last 12 months, a vast majority hasn't budged. I vividly recall the November 2022 FTX crisis when Bitcoin's price plummeted, critics predicted its demise, and the media celebrated prematurely.

Holders of 70% of bitcoin seem to realize that it is better to HODL without worries, rather than getting involved in centralized service bullshit schemes. Besides, I remember what CZ said after the FTX crash more or less: "Your keys your coins". This is a scary statement for a centralized business owner but it seems to have changed the way of thinking of many people who are looking for the safe way.

BreachOfEuphoria

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Quote from: Kensure on November 23, 2023, 05:00:30 PM

The lesson is clear
Conviction matters. Accumulating and holding onto a scarce asset, regardless of volatility, can yield rewards. Looking ahead, with factors like the halving, potential policy changes, and a potential Bitcoin ETF approval, the next 18-24 months promise excitement. The world is slowly realizing the power of a dedicated group accumulating a scarce asset. it's an intriguing time for Bitcoin. Cheers to what lies ahead. Cheesy

Well written

I very much agree with you, conviction matters. Bitcoin has indeed proven it's long term potential.

STT

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We're seen exchanges crash and burn before, allocations that should have been held securely and 100% were not. So whats the news 2022, more of the same idiot attitude apparently so I figure to some it was always a possible maybe this big exchange could fall apart. Prior lessons are that BTC isnt standing ontop of the infrastructure and centralization of a privately owned company, thats not how it works. Some recognize and trade on that and obviously there is a factor of fear that can propagate regardless to every part of the market but yea many know it was a chance to buy on the unpopularity and weakness. This entire year has been a slow grind, 2017 did also start off dull as heck I try not to forget the pattern even if we never repeat 1:1 moves.

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Quote from: Kensure on November 23, 2023, 05:00:30 PM

Just think despite Bitcoin's rise from $15,700 to around $37,000 in the last 12 months, a vast majority hasn't budged. I vividly recall the November 2022 FTX crisis when Bitcoin's price plummeted, critics predicted its demise, and the media celebrated prematurely.

More and more bitcoins have been moving into the hands of stable holders who recognize the long term potential and are not moved by the short term actions either in the positive or negative.

FTX crisis is not the first of its kind and will not be the last, so the effects of it not is majirtly to move people away from centralized platforms not away from Bitcoin.

The market is evolving with time and so will the market price.

Sim_card

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I know that a lot of people wasn't happy when FTX crashed pulled bitcoin price to 15k+ and those who are weak hands would have panic and sold, but the strong hand who already knows that it will be a temporary dip, was able to make wise decisions by taking advantage of the dip to buy in bitcoin at discount. Most investors that were able to pass through that period and the hodli till now will be very happy with their patience for not selling because the have made good profits. It is better that you don't just rely on the profit but also keep on stashing your bitcoin portfolio to increased the size and hodli.

el kaka22

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This is basically just a way to prove that bitcoin is at a all time high expectation at the moment. All these people bought and holding bitcoin because they believe that they could make insane profit in the next year or two, that's the proof. I mean why would this many people, would hold this much bitcoin, if they didn't think that it would go up a lot. I think it's quite crucial information because it also proves that we are going to have what we think we will. I mean I think it will go up a lot in the next year, maybe even for two years, and I do not have any data to back that up, it may not go up too, we do not know.

However, at least I can show this data and say that there are plenty of people like me who expect the same thing as well, that's a good benefit because if I am wrong then a lot of people are wrong too, and if I am right then we all did the right thing. That's a good comradery type of thing or whatever you call that, we are doing something or at least expecting something as a whole community.

Ojima-ojo

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Each time there is a Bitcoin price discount is an opportunity to buy and that is when you have the most discount on your Bitcoin purchased price.

Vas is that many think that Bitcoin should or will act in a particular direction for a long time, this is not true and at the same time highly bad approach to speculating the price of Bitcoin at per time.

But those who bought the dip during the FTX sega are indeed already in high profits and should be thinking of the next face things.

naikturun

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What do you think if they moved simultaneously, would there be a very drastic price spike like a pretty big dump, or would people be happy to buy it?
because bitcoin was released by someone who had quite a large amount.
or an address that has bought bitcoin more than 7 years ago suddenly their wallet moves.
that would be a bit of interesting news.

adaseb

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Another reason why this is happening is because people no longer trust CEX after FTX scandal. The chart shows the illiquid supply greater than 1 year and you can see it went up because last November people withdrew all their coins from exchanges and put them in self custody.

Even if you weren’t part of FTX, the fear would of caused you anyways to self custody and get a hardware wallet. So this chart is not surprising. It will be more interesting what happens when price goes higher and if the supply will drop.

Baofeng

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Quote from: Kensure on November 23, 2023, 05:00:30 PM

The accumulation of 70% of Bitcoin remaining stationary for over a year is a significant milestone. Just think despite Bitcoin's rise from $15,700 to around $37,000 in the last 12 months, a vast majority hasn't budged. I vividly recall the November 2022 FTX crisis when Bitcoin's price plummeted, critics predicted its demise, and the media celebrated prematurely.

Those who celebrated during the crash are those who are anti-bitcoin, on the other hand, smart investors took advantage of that collapse to fatten their wallet. And as I have said previously, we are now 100% in profit in just 12 months. So other assets can give us that huge profit for just holding and buying at that lowest low.

Quote from: Kensure on November 23, 2023, 05:00:30 PM

Yet, none of this affected Bitcoin holders.They held firm and even increased their holdings over the next year. Despite complexities like geopolitics or Fed policy, the basics remain: supply and demand. With stagnant supply and increasing demand, the price is bound to rise. This aligns with Satoshi Nakamoto's insights, buying a scarce asset only drives its price higher.

Those who hold was here for the long run and obviously will not budge even for an inch during that time. And it's good that you mentioned geopolitics because it doesn't have any effect at all to us.

Quote from: Kensure on November 23, 2023, 05:00:30 PM

The lesson is clear
Conviction matters. Accumulating and holding onto a scarce asset, regardless of volatility, can yield rewards. Looking ahead, with factors like the halving, potential policy changes, and a potential Bitcoin ETF approval, the next 18-24 months promise excitement. The world is slowly realizing the power of a dedicated group accumulating a scarce asset. it's an intriguing time for Bitcoin. Cheers to what lies ahead. Cheesy

Yes, not just conviction, that is already a given fact, but we have that kind of mental patience, hard, gritty every week doing DCA and not be tempted to sell any at this point because we are just about to hit the bull run next year.

Kensure

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The accumulation of 70% of Bitcoin remaining stationary for over a year is a significant milestone. Just think despite Bitcoin's rise from $15,700 to around $37,000 in the last 12 months, a vast majority hasn't budged. I vividly recall the November 2022 FTX crisis when Bitcoin's price plummeted, critics predicted its demise, and the media celebrated prematurely.

Yet, none of this affected Bitcoin holders.They held firm and even increased their holdings over the next year. Despite complexities like geopolitics or Fed policy, the basics remain: supply and demand. With stagnant supply and increasing demand, the price is bound to rise. This aligns with Satoshi Nakamoto's insights, buying a scarce asset only drives its price higher.

The lesson is clear
Conviction matters. Accumulating and holding onto a scarce asset, regardless of volatility, can yield rewards. Looking ahead, with factors like the halving, potential policy changes, and a potential Bitcoin ETF approval, the next 18-24 months promise excitement. The world is slowly realizing the power of a dedicated group accumulating a scarce asset. it's an intriguing time for Bitcoin. Cheers to what lies ahead. Cheesy

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