Topic: bitcoin in a supercycle? (Read 271 times)

Judging from this point of view, it gradually taken place as we did see Bitcoin make headlines and became a major topic of discussion during the just concluded US election, The side of Institutional adoption has increased through approval of Bitcoin ETFs, Billionaires are considering Bitcoin a safe heaven, El Salvador and few other countries has considered Bitcoin a legal tender, United has plans on adding Bitcoin on its strategic reserve an will be Buying for number years which will drive price continuously going up.

The problem with getting all coins would also be the fact that if they get all of them, then there is no value to it at all, it's over. This means there needs to be a market for it to go up and down, there needs to be someone buying but also someone selling.

First of all, if retail investors are long term holders and do not sell, then big whales can't buy it all, they would have to realize millions and millions of bitcoin can't be bought, bitcoin satoshi's famous one million, to all burned and gone ones, to all holders, there are millions that they can't buy, and the rest are just on exchanges and if they just buy that, it's still not all the bitcoins in the world for them. Hence, I believe, between needing a buy/sell balance, and also not being able to get all of them technically, they are going to end up with just not doing it because why would they? It is not profitable for them to do something like this, so it is also reasonable that they won't do it.

You mean cycles, right? 

if you are still waffling about trump/musk manipulating the market.. then your still giving them too much attention and still think they affected the market..

musk did not contribute to why the bitcoin market reached $70k in 2021, you just needed to do some math on mining costs to know the planets value-premium window of speculation to know where the market would dry up and top out

i can tell you now, without looking to twitter celebs diary of future intentions.. (no need for a twitter time machine)
that in 2025 will reveal the ATH of the new current cycle(2024-2028)
that in 2027 bitcoin would have revealed its new bottom of this new current cycle(2024-2028)
that in 2028 will see a 2x bull from new bottom leading upto the 2028 halving, and then starting the next cycle a bull slow at first, then accelerating as it approaches 2029 reaching higher amount that the 2024-2028 ATH, and then in 2029 accelerate more leading to a new top ATH, to then begin the bear correction in 2029-2031, finding the next cycles new bottom before 2032

social media/celebrity endorsement may cause temporary price drama, lasting hours to days.. but not contribute to the reason of market cycles
..
if you want to continue insinuating their contributions to the ATH and corrections levels.. how about just stop being subtle about it and plan on admitting your adoration for them and wanting to be their valentines date in 6 weeks, dont forget the lube

bitcoins market is not at the levels it is due to trump/musk 'contributions'..
.. its just trump/musk fangirls that want to give them fake added fame due to adoration/love of the celebs, thinking they need extra credit for things they dont control

much like thinking that trump invented the idea of a bitcoin reserve.. sorry but that idea has been in the pipeline for several years due to a collaborations of 60 countries central banks lobbying international banking regulators.. yep trump didnt patent bitcoin reserves, sorry

..
and if bitcoin does finally break the pattern and supercycles outside its inherent/intrinsic economics.. it wont be trump/musk. it would be the international central banks/regulators contributing/manipulating

the only new in bitcoin is how the new ath was hit even before the halving took place when previously the ath has always been reached after the halving event this unusual event led people to think that this cycle would be different from the previous ones and i guess you could say that it has been different because it has reached newest highs
i wouldn’t put all the credit to trump but he could definitely do something that will impact bitcoin massively as well as the countries all around him

You didn't read my full comment, did you? I specifically used the term "contributed" and not "caused".

You are basically saying the same thing that I said while disagreeing with me!

As I explained before, these things contribute to the trends. But the media is brainwashing people to believe that they caused it. I have a lot of examples. From "bitcoin following US stock market" to the oldest one which is "bitcoin should dump each time a CEX is hacked even if it is an altcoin exchange that has nothing to do with bitcoin".

That's exactly the trick Musk used. He didn't cause the rise nor the drop in the second phase of his market manipulation. The price was already rising and then he started making positive statements and the media mass spread it. He did contribute to the rise that way but never caused it. Same with the drop.

But the only thing that matters is that market reacts to these things. Bitcoin was already up 370% from the beginning of 2023 and 75% from the beginning of 2024 when Trump started using the word bitcoin in his campaign then price went up another 25% after that. But today many people believe that Trump is the reason for "THE Rise" without looking at the facts or the charts! But you have to remember that these people don't exist in a vacuum, they participate in the market.
Next time the same people who believed it will react harder to any meaningless but positive looking statement by the convicted felon in the Oval office and price may go up 40% that time.
And the next time and the next time... each time more people believing it (because they can see the trend) and reacting.

But how long before he changes tactic? Maybe some day we wake up and see he has tweeted something like "Bitcoin is an environmental disaster that is wasting electricity causing the problems" and the same idiots who will have grown in numbers mass panic sell and bitcoin crashes 80% just because US national electric grid is having problems due to high energy prices that cause shortage which have nothing to do with bitcoin...

That is how market manipulation works without spending a dime...

No one who is knowledgeable about the market will think that there is a perpetual bull run and bear market will cease to exist because of someone ordering something about using it to be reserved currency. Even the fiat enter bull and bear market because it is the natural flow of any market especially in a free market are.

As far as I know, super cycles happen on bull run or a cycle that it has broken that 4 year pattern that we have. So far none of it fit, yeah we are in the bull run season, however, we still haven't seen a huge spike in the prices.

But if this happens, even if we thought that we are in the bear market, the price will still continue to grow or there will be no massive dumps. So for now, this is all speculation and personally, I do not think that this is going to happen in the future. At least the pattern is not going to break because of the halving.

I would have preferred you using the word bitcoin market instead of circle because this is what we have in the bitcoin circles, the breakout, hype, correction and accumulation and they are the four major circles we have in bitcoin, but the bull and bear are just the market trends and pattern in which we use to know the kind of season, position and market strategy we are or we are to use.

I think that we will ultimately end in a supercycle. How?

Maybe you've noticed that both bull and bear markets are not as brutal as they used to be. In 2013 bitcoin would go from $100 to 1100 and then crash to $180, so it would lose over 80% of it's market price, but in 2021 it only went from under $20k to 69k and then back to 16k, so it was more of a 75% loss than 85 that it did in 2014/15. This time the upside is expected to be much smaller from the last ATH, probably only 2x to around $150k, but if a bear market comes we won't see a 70% crash. Less upside potential also means less downside pressure.

Maybe it will happen in the next cycle, maybe 2 cycles from now, but we'll see a more steady growth followed by minor 20% corrections in the bear market. It's only a matter of time.
Bad side of this is that you will no longer be able to put a few bucks in and get 10x in a few years. Your last chance for that was in Covid when we crashed to $4k.

Institutions grabbing almost all coins is never possible that’s why the manipulation will take time or never happen as people think it will be, but there is one thing that institutions coming into bitcoin will do which is create the hype when they need too. So should the US get in by using it as reserve this will create hype and could break the cycle if you ask me, if we could remember the market was in bullish mode when ETF approval was on the horizon then and this even made the market to pump to a new all time high which never happens before halving event, so things like this can cause huge hype which can lead to investors selling or buying but the institutions do not have the manipulation right to do anything except the investors do what they want with their funds

The bear and bull cycles will be in the Bitcoin market because it has become a characteristic of bitcoin for a long time and will not be lost even though the US uses Bitcoin as their reserve currency or reserve assets, but only the affluctuation may not be so volatile like 2022 after the bullish season is complete, the price The lowest will increase and the highest price will increase but to return to the top we will not get 5x or more if it really happens to Bitcoin which is adopted by the world government.

The bottom line is if a super cycle exists, what will be next?

After a normal bull market in a normal cycle, there is a correction like 80% or 70% from ATH. Now with a super cycle and consequently a super correction, what will be deep that correction?

Deeper than -80%, something like -90% or more like shitcoins' deaths, not shitcoins' correction. I really don't want to see a super cycle as I expect super correction after that.

I did not know the concept of supercycle completely but I just read an article (https://capital.com/commodity-supercycle-explained) which was helping although it was not related to BTC but BTC is also a commodity not in a way of Iron, Silver, Copper, Gold but with time the features of BTC will be the same. I am not sure if ETF companies give dividens to their shareholders on BTC ETF if they did people will prefer to have a share.

Point is the adoption of BTC as in ETFs and in other governments has really made BTC big but not that big yet that it can step into a supercycle normally according to the article supercycle can exist for 10 to 20 years but they can be short as well. If BTC supercycle is real and can happen then I think I should keep my $10 in BTC and should not book profit from it haha. Well if that's the case then at the end of the supercycle we will see wonders like 2008 haha as it was also a super cycle due to China industrializations from 2001 to 2008.

WRONG

the 2021 market price was the standard market cycle of the ATH season

secondly. musk published his interest in bitcoin december 2020.. but it was MEDIA that found the SEC filing and it was MEDIA that published his interest publicly..
and it was then idiots that have no clue about bitcoin economics that wondered why bitcoin was a bull in 2021.. and so they asserted it must be musk

many idiots think trump is the cause of this seasons rise from $50k-$100k.. but everyone (including you) knew years ago about the cycles.. and that the halving of 2024 and ATH pattern of 2025 being a bull season.. and that pattern was a known thing even before trumps first presidency 8 years ago, and no the early 2024 rise from $25k-$50k was not "ETF caused".. it was the very well known halving cause

I think they will approve it, if SEC can accept ETF, Trump should able to accept Bitcoin reserves, although we're talking about different person/institution, at least both of them are centralized parties.

Accepting Bitcoin reserves only make the banks allowed to buy Bitcoin at certain percentage, but they're not forced to own Bitcoin. So, there's a possibility if they accept Bitcoin reserves, but they didn't own any single satoshi.

We might be expecting too much from that. The trend is happening, but plans to make Bitcoin a national reserve are just that plans until they actually materialize. honestly, it’s easy to talk about it, but getting it approved by Congress is a whole different story.

And it seems we forgot that Trump hasn’t even taken office yet, and once he does, there will still be plenty of other priorities for him to handle. We can’t be sure if he’ll make his Bitcoin plans a top priority right away, so let's wait and see how this goes.

It all depends on how clearly every party gets what Bitcoin can bring to them and what they should start doing to achieve it.
For now, it is mostly talks and dust being spilled all over the space, with much of the anticipation being held for 2025.
And we are in to see what would happen in the end, bullish or very bullish - it would all be good in the end.

Obviously we will not be able to confirm whether it has been a supercycle or not until it has already ended, in 2028. But it does make more sense now than in the last cycle, which I first heard Dan Held talk about it, and he said that in the last cycle there might have been one. As we know, nothing could be further from the truth, but I think his prediction, like many others that have been made, was a bit like the .com bubble crash, in which many people invested a lot of money seeing that the Internet was the future, but they did it about 15 years too soon. Seeing that with bitcoin everything is going faster we can draw an analogy and say that bitcoin was expected 4 years before, which will most likely happen this cycle.

If there is state and institutional adoption of this cycle it is quite likely that the cycles as we knew them before will not be repeated and the dips or low parts of the cycle will not be so pronounced.

That is true but not the only way to manipulate the market. Need I remind you of "Shenanigans of Musk"™? When bitcoin was rising, he basically started advertising it and contributed to that rise. Afterward when the rise stopped and the correction began, he took a U-turn and did the exact opposite and started spreading FUD and contributed to deepening the crash.
He did that market manipulation by only moving his mouth and his fingers on keyboard without having to trade on a CEX.

A couple of months ago when Trump was running his mouth, many people got hyped up and so many attribute the breaking of $70k resistance to his campaign promises.

Do you really think Trump as the felon president in office and Musk as his "sidekick" would have less influence to manipulate the market?

based on the range of mining costs(electric price variant) across the planet. bitcoin only ever bubbled into over valued peaks in 2011
the 2013 rise was due to ASIC causing a big jump in mining costs compared to GPU and since then the peaks and bottoms stayed within their cycle/period range of mining cost differences top to bottom
2017-19 was again a ATH and subsequent correction within the range of underlying costs, as was the 2021-23

other coins however such as ethereum are way way way above their inherent range and being held at a inflated bubble due to bitcoins arbitrage opportunities and it hasnt just burst(but should have) when switching to PoS. its slowly leaking air and changing from a 1:12 peg to a 1:30 peg, so its 'pop'/burst is slow flattening, so in short bitcoin traders are manipulating the 'intrinsic' value of ethereum and breaking known economic logic expected of ethereum over the last 4 years
so we might see institutional investors start to break bitcoins economic logic and intrinsic values, though the insights of the ETF inception has not broke bitcoins economic logic...   ...   yet


many keep thinking US" "trump".. but all 60+ countries involved in the bank of international settlements have a opportunity as of january 2025 to start jumping into crypto. but as already stated in other post, it would only impact or manipulate the market price if they trade on public CEX's.. however even the ETF's have tried hard to only trade via OTC and darkpool swaps which shows institutional investors with big collateral/capital try to avoid shooting slef in the foot, avoid causing a bubble that breaks the normal economic range potential of bitcoins inherent value-premium range

So the next one should be green.
Obviously.
Patience will lead us through it.
 

A full market cycle has bear and bull year but history shows some great news that in each cycle, there are more green years than red years. People feel like there are two bearish years in each cycle but there is one red year that is followed by a next green year. This year is considered as bearish but in fact it is green, you can see the chart. However, in this humble green year, fud exists and some fiasco happens so it makes people think it is more like a bearish year.

https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

I think it makes more sense to define a cycle as the duo of bull and bear market. Meaning it starts by price going up slowly and eventually price goin way above the intrinsic value (aka in a bubble) followed by the bubble bursting which is the indication of the start of the bear market where price keeps going down until it goes way below the intrinsic value (aka a reverse bubble) which will then burst and enter a new cycle.

Will it be a supercycle if US starts getting into bitcoin more than before? I think it will be but in the sense that we will see increase volatility with bigger bubbles and more catastrophic crashes because there is a high chance they'll manipulate the hell out of the bitcoin market to make as big a profit as they can so that they can cover a tiny portion of their ever increasing budget deficit...

alot of people using actual data are suggesting a ~$350k top ATH this coming year then recovery below $100k(but above $50k) in 2026-7
as the natural inherent cycle pattern
however lets not give trump any merit if bitcoin breaks out of its inherent pattern and just goes bull$hit crazy above its natural expected high

its actually the world banks collectively that as of january 2025 have to start auditing/accounting and publishing their crypto holdings and being allowed 2-5% of their reserves to be in volatile crypto like bitcoin.. so lets not make it a trump thing when its actually been a international bank decision made over the last 3 years(research: BIS) to start being able to hold 2-5% of reserves as crypto as of january 2025

so yes this can push bitcoin higher, but only if the countries treasurers use public CEX for their coin purchases and not darkpools/OTC's

bitcoins inherent natural economics shouldnt see bitcoins lows going back down to the $20k level ever again unless there is a major bug causing hashrate and trust loss of bitcoins economics. but at the top end we may not see $400k+ unless the international banks highly speculate and overly pump on the public exchanges.. which i dont see them wanting to shoot self in the foot pushing the price too high too fast

I think Bitcoin will likely continue its natural bull and bear cycles, as market sentiment and external factors like regulations and adoption still play major roles. The idea of a supercycle sounds exciting, but expecting Bitcoin to avoid downturns entirely feels overly optimistic. Even with growing interest and potential policy changes, corrections are part of any market.

Who said bitcoin will never dip? There is no currency or volitile asset in the world that just keeps going up in price without any moment of pull backs and corrections, even if the USA declare in early 2025 declare that Bitcoin will be used as reserve currency for the country, the price of bitcoin will definitely jump on that news, people will become more confident in the future growth of bitcoin and want to invest heavily on it, but this does not mean that the price will never experience any form of decline anymore from time to time, remember that it's not only the US that is holding or will be holding bitcoin, there are several bodies and entities holding bitcoins too, and any of this bodies and or entities can decide to sell their position at any time, which may cause the price of bitcoin to go down a bit, depending on how large the position being sold is.

So at the moment, I don't believe in anything known as a supercycle, bitcoin, as well as the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem have just two seasons, and that's the bull and bear seasons.

While searching for the definition of a "Bitcoin supercycle", I tried to read this article that I saw, and here's a portion of it: LINK
I'll try to explain some of it (coming from not an expert one )
1. Increased liquidity in the market - I can't say if there's an increase of liquidity in the market, but if there's anybody who can share some data here then that would be helpful, but if there's an increase in liquidity, that might be a factor towards a potential supercycle.
2. Favorable market and geopolitical conditions - I guess there's no need to explain this one. Trump winning, which is a pro-crypto, him putting pro-crypto officials as well, and the market seems favorable as well.
3. Strong performance in TradFi Markets - we've seen many traditional finance markets that are coming into crypto. There are many financial institutions coming into the crypto space already.
4. Rising demand for BTC and crypto - Well, I guess we are seeing a rising demand with the institutions coming.

Whatever the case is, we might see a Bitcoin supercycle in the future, or maybe we might see it in the next 2-3 years.

Gold is a reserve currency, and the value goes up and down. Long-term, it looks as if the value goes up, but that's just inflation on fiat currency which means gold more or less keeps it's value while the dollar and euro are forever dropping. Bitcoin is still increasing in value faster than inflation, and I expect that to continue for a while. Which, in my opinion, means Bitcoin's value is still going up, and it will probably take a few decades for it to reach an equilibrium like gold has had for centuries. After that, I still expect ups and downs, but in the long-run, Bitcoin will more or less reach a stable value where it's price will follow inflation. Kinda like gold now. But at a much higher price than it currently has.

How would institutions be able to grab all the coins, though?
Don't see it happening as for now.
And I don't see them at the helm of the cycles anytime soon.

Bitcoin reserve doesn't make people can't sell their coins, so it's still not yet possible having Bitcoin reserve will ends Bitcoin 4 years cycle. It's only happen when the institutions can own almost all Bitcoin, this will make them able to do whatever they like, they can manipulate the cycle. In Bitcoin 4 years cycle, the bull run start after halving and bear season start after bull run. If they won most of coins, they can swap the cycle or create their own cycle in order to trick the public.

In short - there should be stability at place and agreement upon many bullish factors that would result in such an outcome.
Otherwise, it may just be a usual change of cycles and that would be it, without something groundbreaking.

Just like the name implies; bear season. A bear season is a period when there is a continuous drop in the price of bitcoin either within a short period of time or for a longer period of time depending on the factor that will prompt it's action. If Donald Trump makes bitcoin a strategic reserve currency, there will certainly be a bear season at some point but it won't last for so long again as it normally does in some bear season. This is because the value of bitcoin will increase and some investors who are hodlers will be looking for any DIP opportunity for them to buy and add to their portfolio so definitely, if the market is experiencing a downtrend for sometime, it will still return back again because their will be active investors who are ready to monitor the activities in the market just like normal traders does.

The bear season is not gone but it will not be rational as it used to be but rather it will be irregular.

About bitcoin supercycle, this is what Gracy Chen said in one of the articles on Cointelegraph which I read and I agree to. She said that for bitcoin Supercycle to happen, there should be ease with which traditional finance and the crypto market connect, and not just in the U.S but in many countries around the world. This connection will make increase mainstream adoption. Additional, something else I also agree on which she mentioned is that bitcoin should receive the same recognition and treatment just as stocks and gold from governments around the world. People should be able to buy, hold, and trade bitcoin without any limits, that what it implies. If these conditions are right then we are in to see a bitcoin Supercycle happen.

bitcoin naturally goes through cycles two being the bull and the bear cycles. these two cycles can't be any different: bull cycle are associated with price growth and influx of investors while bear cycle are associated with falling prices and overall loss of confidence from investors. due to bitcoin's volatility it is always expected for bear cycle to happen consequently after a bull cycle.

for every bull cycle, someone is always expecting for the bear cycle to be stopped or to not happen anymore but that is only wishful thinking. bear cycle can't be stopped by anyone or anything but due to many countries taking interest in bitcoin recently particularly the usa is it now appropriate to think that bitcoin is in a supercycle which means it will most likely not follow the past cycles and continue to show high prices for the next few years?

many are expecting that when trump orders bitcoin to be a reserve currency, bitcoin's bear cycles will stop.

i personally do not believe this to happen at the very least we will see some changes of course like maybe the bear cycle would not show very low prices but to think that the price of bitcoin will never dip over the next few years is too optimistic in my opinion. what about you? do you also believe in this supercycle that bitcoin might be in? or do you think bitcoin will just continue to follow its previous cycles?