Topic: Bitcoin in a triangle - Watch it closely (Read 726 times)

It will take alot to break this declining trend from past months but if it breaks then I look for confirmation of the break and a more certain rise from that point.   The market likes to fake a breakout before then coming back in and resuming, maybe traders like to short and see it as a high risk reward scenario to do so.

The March 2017 trend I have literally drawn and left there since about last summer, maybe Autumn but not interfered this year because I figure its most accurate not to retrospect a view.   The way I drew that at that point is now overhead, maybe over the top of the June peak price


The point is there is no certainties but we can at least measure the high tide mark to the negative and positive trends and avoid some losses from predictable waves in the market

yes indeed, it hold pretty well at $5.9k.
too bad I was somewhat  busy and didn't manage to scoop up cheap BTC at that time
I always misses a good opportunity to buy "good" price bitcoin

any chance we will see sub $5k within a month or two?
preev is currently showing $6,615 lets see if it goes up or down later today or tomorrow  

The previous support at 5.9k hold quite well and confirm that 5.9k is really a strong support.

BTC is currently hitting two resistances : the FIB one at 6.6k and the one formed by the top of the descending channel (between aqua and purple lines)



If we break the channel upward, the next stop will be at 6.8k FIB resistance and then at the 7.2k FIB which may be coupled with the red resistance line from the big triangle we are since December.
If 7200$ is broken it will may end the downtrend that we face since the beginning of the year but we are not here yet!

If we don't break the current resistance, BTC will go back to 6.4k support.

IMO, i don't think that BTC will break 6.6k today but i would love to be wrong

I hope that $5,9k will hold as strong as we thought but I'm a bit worry and not so sure about it   
it did bounce back up slightly today but it looks like we are going to break support again within a week or two

this retest that I am afraid of it has tendency to break the support
I got a feeling this support won't hold long and we will see $5k soon
lets hope it turns the other way around and rises up back to $7k or more before the end of july

I forget to update previously in this post but i did on my french post here where I stated that if the support at 6.4k don't hold we can go to 5,9k. And here we are...

BTC is actually in a descending channel (between the aqua and purple lines) and we are currently on a strong support at 5.9k which set the bottom of the big descending triangle between the light green and the red lines. BTC previoulsy tested 2 times this support in the past.

This 5.9k support could hold (unless we get a bad news) and i think we may have sideways mouvement this weekend before a small bounce on the beginning of the week and then a retest of the 5.9k support. But the sell pressure remains very high so it may break even without any catalyst.
The next support below are at 5.7k, 5,5k and 4.9-5k

I do not understand why there are so many fudders in here , i do not think that the price will drop even more, it is more than stable at the mometn and it is safe to invest

I dont know if hits double top on resistance but basing on the rsi its going on down trend or price decrease. Ascending triangle do signifies market reversal but the thing happen after this thread being posted seems like the opposite one. Touching support on long term trend scales doesnt signifies anytime a trend reversal but still theres a possibility.We might even hit up below 6k price.

now the triangle in main post seems got broken by this recent dip , sometimes in crypto market chart are useless , dip from 7400 is totally unexpected . it mostly happened bcoz of FUD of hack and investigation of price manipulation , big investors tried to load dip and create panic with help of such news and then re-enter at low price .

Loss of momentum I thought was one signal.   Not absolute or perfectly clear but it encountered resistance probably on a few peoples screens.   One of them held alot of BTC and thought it'd be worth a sell, for all I know they are buying it back as we speak

I've been following the blue line on this chart as a momentum measure, whether we bullish or bearish from the last time we were at this price in early April.     Right now I'd just call it a reset, nothing more complicated then that

I hope it stops now to be honest, it’s always nice to add little bits to your stash during drops but I really don’t want to see us go below 6k. It causes panic & then weak hands dump & it gets even fucking worse.

I don't think there is such a simple explanation of the drop...

IMHO it's much more plausible that it's just a few longs being closed at the same time. Remember that some investors entered heavily during the first drop and I wouldn't dare imagine what they're doing right now. Looking for logical and easy answers isn't a solution. If you could get such answers then everyone could predict what will happen.

But here we seem to be go for another down then...

Today we the bottom line (pink one)n of the triangle described previously was broken downward and the fall was steep!



First support around 6600 second around 6400.

This break was initiated due to this news : https://cointelegraph.com/news/all-of-top-100-cryptocurrencies-see-red-amidst-cftc-price-manipulation-probe

is this mean there are 2 possible low entry points before the end of May?
first is this coming week (3rd week of May) for ~$7700
second is the following week after that (4th week of May) for ~$7200
then it will slowly rise up and test the first resistance around 2nd week of June at ~$8,700
so I should buy around that low time/price and then sell back for some profit in June?

I don't have a lot of available time for crypto lately but I will just update a few lines and FIB resistance just to see how it will go.
I will try to explain later the following graph

how do you draw the red and purple lines? they don't seem based on any precise high or low points
are you sure 7.7-7.9k will be the next support? I'm seeing support line is gradually uprising from $6.7k to $7.1k
If I draw lines on the lows, it pointed towards possible $7.1k as the next triangle crosspoint sometime in third week of may

edit: ahh... after seeing old images, I just realized those red and purple lines was drawn from way older high/low points

Bitcoin is yet to test $8900 resistance to confirm the bull cycle. With Bitcoin making higher highs and lower lows, I expect it to breach $8900 zone this time instead of going back again to test $7700 zone. Bitcoin is successfully making up to $8k+ levels even after the sudden pump.

Sorry I don't have a lot of spare time lately to update this feed but here are some news :
BTC is currently struggling with a FIB resistance around 8,4 - 8,6k (blue dashed horizontal line)

If it doesn't succeed to past it, BTC will go to the previous FIB support at 7.7-7.9k in order to gather some new strengths.
IF it succeed in breaking this resistance, we will witness the test of the Red line which will be determinant for the future of BTC price for the next weeks. if the red line is broken upward this will send a strong signal and may put an end of the bearish trend we have seen lately.

I was planning to buy some but wasn't able to do so because rel life activities in the last couple days
@TomCrypto would you draw some more lines and triangles for us
I'm curious what direction the chart will move, after a price spike usually there will be a correction

It did, and it got a lot of people quite excited including me lol. Reversal perhaps? Though i've no intentions of moving my btcs, it's just nice to see some positive movements after a long while of seeing red

BTC just broke the black channel Upward and it was a nice candle (1200$ in a matter of a few minutes!!!)

You are reading the charts correctly
If BTC doesn't break this channel upward, the next strong support is around 5.9k-6k. But the support doesn't hold we are ready to go to 4.7k-5k.
If we break the channel upward, BTC will have a lot of resistance to overcome (7.4k then 7.9k but also the red line)

what I am seeing is that the next checkpoint is around ~$5900 price level
and if we can't break (to bounce back) that level then we are going down to $5k or worse $4k?
am I right? or I'm reading those lines and triangles incorrectly

BTC is still inside the descending channel between the two black lines.

Yesterday it touched the top of the channel but didn't break the resistance and therefore BTC price felt below 7k again.
We have to keep watching this descending channel and the target remains the same :

• If BTC stays in this black channel, we will go to the next FIB support at 6k and to the bottom of the triangle (green line).
  
• If we break the channel upward BTC may try to go to the upper part of the triangle

Thanks for putting up with such information . It is quite a relief to know that bitcoin follows the same pattern through out the year nd at the end it is expected and apparently supposed to rise and give some positivist price values . But the  concern is the longevity of the period that would be be for bitcoin because if the period ifs long there will be more time taken to rise again.

After breaking the previous triangle, bitcoin felt from 7,8k to 6,4k


We can now see the formation of a descending channel (two black lines) in which BTC is stucked for the moment.
I have also added to my chart the complete triangle between the green and red lines.
If BTC stays in this black channel, we will go to the next FIB support at 6k and to the bottom of the triangle (green line).
If we break the channel upward BTC may try to go to the upper part of the triangle.

Therefore watch this channel as well as this triangle to place our order accordingly.
Good luck

this is practically the same words throughout the entire activity of each user with a crypto currency. No one wants to sell at a cheap price and everyone is trying to keep Bitcoin in their wallets, waiting for better prospects in the future. But will these prospects be better, no one can give a guarantee.

Two days ago we broke  the triangle and confirmated with the daily candle. I hope you took your trade accordingly

We experienced then a drop from 8k to 7,4k where stand the next support between 7.5k - 7.0k.
We will now see if this support hold or not. If it doesn't hold we may go to the next strong support around 6k.
If the current support hold, we may try to renter the triangle, but it will be hard and may take a good news on cryptoworld to do it!

Good luck

The bitcoin price is fluctuates often and it seems like a triangle. It's good analysis and it will help to the traders .We have to use the fluctuations to buy and sell bitcoin in trading.Now the price is start to fluctuate to lower value, you may consider this to buy some bitcoin. Suppose you have any bitcoin, just hold it to avoid the loss at dip.

We are currently testing the bottom of the triangle.
Next Hours/day are crucial!

Watch it if it break the purple line and confirmed it on the close of the daily bar below the line!

For me, it will keep going up during the next hours until it touches $9300 at last.. but i do not think that it will go higher than that.

And if it starts to go down, it will be probably be touching $6500, or maybe less, but no one knows what the hell is really gonna happen with it.

You'd also see that the price of bitcoin last year at this time was being crashed /bitcoin was in a bear market at that moment. But soon after April, prices started to rise and it rose for a long period of time. There's a lot of crazy speculation out there on this. The price of bitcoin is less likely to crash more worse than what it is right now. So I'd just say that hold your beer and get your shit together, and you'd be good to go.

We need to stay above $8700 which is where the middle of the triangle is, below that is danger zone, and below the resistance line is panic mode, I think we'll see a lot of people unloading once again and the bear market will continue, which is where the smart money will start looking forward to racking tons of coins.

Wall Street is watching and they want Bitcoin back to $1800 so they can be a major holder, and im sure there are many noobs willing to give them their coins before we go $100,000+ in the next few years.

I really like what others do when making this analysis that can actually be useful to someone, expecting more bitcoin to go higher and people prefer it with real bitcoin action.

If you pay attention to my post, all that mentioned opinions is about cryptocurrencies. Let's imagine you recognize any coin that value goes down and invest. Later i gone to sell 100 Bitcoin worth coin on market and the price go to make dip of dip.

Regarding Forex, trillion USD worth daily volume turns and you need money as much as Rockfeller in order to make pump-dump. Things doesn't work in cryptos like in Forex. 

First of all, go to school learn basics of technical analysis and come back when you feel ready. Gaps not only happen between Friday and Monday, there are situations like slippage on orderbook that creates gaps on charts. Big guys don't come to post on this form and care about your opinion form. Let's consider the fact you are not big guy with 1000 Bitcoin and any amount of Bitcoin can by pass any tecnical analyse, if you know what i'm talking about.

Yes only technical analysis wouldn't help fully to predict the market.A lot of outward factors do have more influence over bitcoin price.Infact FUDs play a vital role in deciding the market fate.

Nice observation OP. I am noticing this art now though I use to look at the chart but it never occur to me. Well, it's not on our night or power to make the price of bitcoin to reset falling below the purple. Sometimes, we might not even do anything and the price of BTC goes either  up or down. Lets hope that more people will invest in bitcoin, then we might see a growth in the price.

I beg to differ, in crypto world where there are so many FUDs, scams, and etc...
the one we can use is "trusted" data: historical price charts, trade volumes and trends

He did make prediction. watch the market, he said it will steadily go up with support around $7k
it means buying at $7k was a good buy and it stilll will if we ever go down again and support hold makes it bounce
you can place sell order at slightly below $9k to get some profit

and if it breaks $7k then it has a chance to go below... down to the next bottom (support) $6k
so place your buy order around $6k to catch the opportunity if it is really happening
when and how much each of us sell or buy will form the charts and trends,
you react accordingly to whatever movements in the next 2-3 weeks

Indeed, TA works far better on Top 20 coins. On lower coins, users having an important portion of the coin are able to manipulate market and it can completly destroy any TA.


Indeed it's hard to predict the market but the analysis I proposed at the beginning of my post can give you some information for your trade.
For example if the triangle breaks downward, it may be a good time to short or to sell your position.
If it breaks upward, to buy or to long bitcoin could be a good strategy.
You could also tries to trade inside the triangle. By adding RSI and MACD you could for example buy at the bottom of the triangle and sell at the top but this is riskier because it could broke down or up.

TA works and can be of great help. But like every tools in trading, nothing is perfect.

Believe it or not, but technical analysis works. Why? Because many traders use it and therefore it's kind of a self fulfilling prophecy.
It's no woodoo or magic. Just a few thousand people recognizing the same patterns, and that's why it works.
TA works best on high liquidity top 20 coins imo.
The lower you look at the list on coinmarketcap, the more of a gamble TA becomes.

While these technical analysis are always nice to see, I wonder what the real benefit is by doing this. It is not a way to predict the market, because as the OP has stated in his post, we will or go down to +/- 7k or go up again depending on the market.

I really appreciate the analysis you make in which there are still many people who think about it and want to share, instead of looking for profit only in mind, it is very useful for some people and for the future it may be more mature to appreciate what has been made.
would not be poor if I knew the analysis they made might be useful to me in the future in trading.

Good observation and I appreciate your time and data collected for identifying this graph. Yes you are correct almost, people who are in trading could use your information wisely to buy or sell who don't have any other graphs to identify when and where to buy Bitcoin. I personally think that in April mid Bitcoin would rise to $12k according to the trend it follows. Lets wait and watch her movement. 

Can you enlighten as what gaps are you talking about in his technical analysis? It's funny how people think that only money can drive prices up and down in the cryptocurrency market where TA existed on price charts since it was first introduce. TA also involves psychology as it is the one who translates how the market will go by understanding different human actions, and that includes how the money is flowing in and out of Bitcoin. And Yes  even guys with Big money can be detected via Technical Analysis.

If I apply your thinking to Forex the same can be said to it too, any guy who has "money" can make the technical side of the chart useless, so why do technical analysis in the first place? When you can be poor and a noob forever?

As I stated above, Technical Analysis is just a part concerning price forecasting in crypto.
And there is many ways to perform TA : you can try to search patterns in the price (triangle, double bottom, double top, head&shoulder, Cup and handle, channel, pennant, diamond...), find some repetition of a scheme (fractals), use indicators (MACD, RSI, ADX,....) , use some Fibonacci mathematical tools (in term of price level, of time period,...) ,... There is a lot you can do and you can always find something that will support your price prediction.

In addition to TA, in order to try to do more accurate price forecast you have to take into account market sentiment (how the crypto enthusiasts will react to the market will depend on their confidence into the market, on the news on mainstream media, crypto media, twitter, influencer....) as well as fundamental analysis (how solid is a crypto project, does the team is capable on delivering, marketing, finance, token economy, ...) .
Those three tools must be combined to allow better understanding of what is driving the price.

But as always, those three tools are not perfect, and you are not away of one unexpected move from several whales or some price manipulation. "Shit Happens"
Never take someone investing advice blindly without doing your own due diligence that the main advice I can give in trading.

For my experience, Technical analysis in crypto is stronger than in forex market. Indeed, more people in the crypto world seems to have knowledge of TA and they try to follow some pattern. In forex it works also but I find it less effective. On the other end, fundamental analysis is less efficient in crypto than in forex (when you see so much scam project having huge market cap there is a problem!). Market sentiment seems to work equally on forex and Crypto for me.

But all this talk is my own opinion, and some will agree some won't and that's the beauty of the thing I’m just sharing my thoughts with you. I may be wrong, I may be right. Let's talk about it, this forum is a good place to do it.

Concerning the 5700 double bottom, I could just say that this will be a strong support if we ever break down the purple line (and confirm it by the closing of a daily candle under). But as I say "shit happens" and if for example we are near this support and that a very bad news is spreaded in all media (Banning of crypto from some countries, big hack on some exchange...) then we can go below 5700$. That's why, we have to use the three tools : TA, FA and Market sentiment

Good trading to all of you

Nice, simple, to the point. Stretch out that triangle (zoom in on the end) though and you see that the purple line has already been broken several times these few months, so I suppose it does mean good news in the sense that even when support breaks, there's still enough strength in Bitcoin to move back higher. We saw post G20 of 9k and the mid-8000s support, will be curious if Monday still manages to hold these levels or break past 9k and aim for the big old 10 again.

The technical analysis is not necessary in cryptos, someone with money can by pass the price analysis, so technical side of chart is useless. I checked your analiysis but there are gaps that did't included. To me, don't be tired. If you are good at technical analysis, you should be busy with Forex.

umm... that's why we called it technical analysis! it's based on historical data to predict the possible outcomes

there's no definite wrong or right in trading markets, you can only try to make your best guess of future price
you do it with whatever tools you choose depending which kind of analyst you are
a technical analyst believes all those things you said have been reflected on the price charts

here's some good information from wikipedia and investopedia
click on the quote links to read the whole article on the source site

People like to draw graphs to illustrate their theories. But I think it's unnecessary. Chart shows the price behaviour of bitcoin but this is not amenable to theory. Bitcoin does not have a classical value and therefore its price has an artificial origin. How can this be analyzed? No one knows that today have come up with whales.

I don't like your vision as it's completely based on analyzing the graph.
Remember that you are dealing here with a brand new asset that is being completely controlled by huge speculators, those guys do what they want and they don't look at the graph before to get an approval.
Basing your decisions on graph analyzing only is wrong, and you should be considering the status of the market, regulators, hype level and etc to get an accurate vision.

I have a chart with a triangle on it too, but my trendline starts a bit earlier than yours does. In fact it starts about when Bitcoin was first listed on Mt Gox. I had to overlay Mt Gox early charts with later ones for Binfinex to get a long enough time line, but getting back to the point, my triangles low shows we could hit about $2,500 before breaking the real long-term trendline.

Thank you for this analysis and I think it would help some of us that buy bitcoin above  $10,000 to keep hope that our break even level will be breaking very soon. This channel is going to last until we break the upper resistance level which is going to put us on the part of bullish trends we have been having thus.

If I understand it correctly, this means we won't see a price dip below $7500 again
and dropping below $6000 is even less likey to happen?
how do you predict the possible outcomes based on this technical?
do I read news and try guessing the movement, or watch the trade volume and weigh its direction

Using this is triangle for technical analysis indeed was good. What makes market unpredictable besides what was said in the OP is the unpredictability of bitcoin market itself. I somehow predicted that bitcoin will rise some time after block halving but I have never predicted it to go up to 15,000$+ and this time, I am speculating that we will see unpredictable prices in the next coming months. Such as an unbelievable dump or pump.

Yeah I've been monitoring that line, it's a pretty nice one with many coincidences, so there is still hope that we are not in a bear market, but if we aren't able to stay above it, do you believe that $5700 double bottom will hold? some people say double bottoms are too rare in bitcoin, so who knows, maybe we go below $5700. This is good news for anyone wanting to accumulate more BTC long term in any case, but I would rather not see it happen, or maybe I do.. im not sure. I want more BTC than I want more USD so it could be good news.

Indeed you can create a lot of triangle indeed But you have to find the lines that pass through several top/bottom to have an effeicient triangle.
I used this triangle since february on tradingview and it was perfect to predict the top of march 05 and the dip of 18 march.
But Technical Analysis is not always perfect ;p It's just a part of the trading process with fondamental analysis and market sentiment.

Correct me if I'm mistaken but can you not draw a triangle on every chart by connecting the highs and lows? I agree with almost all of the analysis but that's just my thought, I'd be happy to be proven wrong or educated on this and what the basis behind it is.

Even if it's hard to wait, for the moment this is the less risky move to do in my opinion (except if you are a day trader of course).
As you said JanpriX, the odds are strong that we will retest the bottom of the triangle very soon. Let's see what's happen and if what we will need to buy : Lambo or Kleenex !

Thanks for putting this out. It appears that almost all of the traders that publish their TA come into this conclusion and we could say that this is the market psychology for now. We've seen this support be tested a couple of times and it held its ground well in the past. The question for now is will this also hold in the coming days/weeks if we test it again (and it is most likely to happen)? We are also hitting new lower highs week by week producing a downward trend for BTC. The 3-week period that you provided will be very important for the market to decide if we will have the next huge run or be at the forest of despair in the coming months. 

Despite all the Bad/Good/Fake News Bitcoin is still in this triangle where the bottom purple line started one year ago in march 2017 (touched 4 times since) and the top red line started in December (touched 3 times since)



Two days ago, BTC hit the 8.85k coupled with the 9k level who acted like a strong resistance.

For now on, BTC could go retest the bottom of the triangle by touching the purple line.
If the purple line is broken we will have a great chance to go to the next support : 7k and then 5.9-6k.

But if we bounce we will go back to try to break the 8.85-9k resistance. If BTC manage to test this resistance we will witness a test of the next resistance at 10k (round number resistance) near the top of the triangle.
If it broke up we will go to the next fib resistance around 11k

This triangle will play out in the next 3 weeks, so i advised you to watch it closely and to put our order accordingly.


Update 26/03/2018 at 16:31 GMT:

We are currently testing the bottom of the triangle.
Next Hours/day are crucial!

Watch it if it break the purple line and confirmed it on the close of the daily bar below the line!




Update 29/03/2018 at 13:59 GMT:

Two days ago we broke  the triangle and confirmated with the daily candle.

We experienced then a drop from 8k to 7,4k where stand the next support between 7.5k - 7.0k.
We will now see if this support hold or not. If it doesn't hold we may go to the next strong support around 6k.
If the current support hold, we may try to renter the triangle, but it will be hard and may take a good news on cryptoworld to do it!

Good luck


Update 05/04/2018 at 14:20 GMT:

After breaking the previous triangle, bitcoin felt from 7,8k to 6,4k


We can now see the formation of a descending channel (two black lines) in which BTC is stucked for the moment.
I have also added to my chart the complete triangle between the green and red lines.
If BTC stays in this black channel, we will go to the next FIB support at 6k and to the bottom of the triangle (green line).
If we break the channel upward BTC may try to go to the upper part of the triangle.

Therefore watch this channel as well as this triangle to place our order accordingly.
Good luck


Update 09/04/2018 at 13:00 GMT:

BTC is still inside the descending channel between the two black lines.

Yesterday it touched the top of the channel but didn't break the resistance and therefore BTC price felt below 7k again.
We have to keep watching this descending channel and the target remains the same :

• If BTC stays in this black channel, we will go to the next FIB support at 6k and to the bottom of the triangle (green line).
  
• If we break the channel upward BTC may try to go to the upper part of the triangle

Update 20/04/2018 at 14:00 GMT:

BTC is currently struggling with a FIB resistance around 8,4 - 8,6k (blue dashed horizontal line)

If it doesn't succeed to past it, BTC will go to the previous FIB support at 7.7-7.9k in order to gather some new strengths.
IF it succeed in breaking this resistance, we will witness the test of the Red line which will be determinant for the future of BTC price for the next weeks. if the red line is broken upward this will send a strong signal and may put an end of the bearish trend we have seen lately.


Update 12/05/2018 at 22:00 GMT:

I don't have a lot of available time for crypto lately but I will just update a few lines and FIB resistance just to see how it will go.
I will try to explain later the following graph





Update 10/06/2018 at 22:00 GMT:

Today we the bottom line (pink one)n of the triangle described previously was broken downward and the fall was steep!



First support around 6600 second around 6400.

This break was initiated due to this news : https://cointelegraph.com/news/all-of-top-100-cryptocurrencies-see-red-amidst-cftc-price-manipulation-probe



Update 11/06/2018 at 20:00 GMT:

If I dezoomed my BTC chart I have also this "Baseline" in purple that form "kinda" an ascending channel. I Hope we won't go touch the purple line but this remains a possibility.




Update 24/06/2018 at 13:17 GMT:
I forget to update previously in this post but i did on my french post here where I stated that if the support at 6.4k don't hold we can go to 5,9k. And here we are...

BTC is actually in a descending channel (between the aqua and purple lines) and we are currently on a strong support at 5.9k which set the bottom of the big descending triangle between the light green and the red lines. BTC previoulsy tested 2 times this support in the past.

This 5.9k support could hold (unless we get a bad news) and i think we may have sideways mouvement this weekend before a small bounce on the beginning of the week and then a retest of the 5.9k support. But the sell pressure remains very high so it may break even without any catalyst.
The next support below are at 5.7k, 5,5k and 4.9-5k



Update 02/07/2018 at 19:07 GMT:
The previous support at 5.9k hold quite well and confirm that 5.9k is really a strong support.

BTC is currently hitting two resistances : the FIB one at 6.6k and the one formed by the top of the descending channel (between aqua and purple lines)



If we break the channel upward, the next stop will be at 6.8k FIB resistance and then at the 7.2k FIB which may be coupled with the red resistance line from the big triangle we are since December.
If 7200$ is broken it will may end the downtrend that we face since the beginning of the year but we are not here yet!

If we don't break the current resistance, BTC will go back to 6.4k support.

IMO, i don't think that BTC will break 6.6k today but i would love to be wrong