Bitcoin in the Event of a Global Economic Crisis

gabmen

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Quote from: exstasie on April 01, 2019, 05:08:14 PM

Quote from: mindrust on April 01, 2019, 03:27:42 PM

They may try to get out of this by creating another WW. It is another option which is always on the table.

I've heard people alluding to this before but I'm skeptical. How would that work exactly? Do you mean it would provide an opportunity to establish a new financial order like Bretton Woods in 1944?

Lol. Another world war would demolish everything that was built after ww2, including bitcoin. You may think that it'll be the same as the previous ww's but i believe the scale of the next one, considering where technology took us in nuclearization, it's not only bitcoin that'll be gone but most of us as well.

exstasie

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Quote from: mindrust on April 01, 2019, 03:27:42 PM

They may try to get out of this by creating another WW. It is another option which is always on the table.

I've heard people alluding to this before but I'm skeptical. How would that work exactly? Do you mean it would provide an opportunity to establish a new financial order like Bretton Woods in 1944?

Bagaji

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I strongly believe that if there will be another global economic meltdown Bitcoin will survive it, although it will feel the negative impact of the meltdown since it is the individual and cooperate organization that holds the crypto currency assets.

mindrust

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on March 31, 2019, 12:13:36 PM

Quote from: mindrust on March 31, 2019, 08:22:58 AM

The Dollar is going to make one last moon shot before it collapses. Just like supernova. Bitcoin will survive no matter what happens but it is not going to moon right away.

The FED prints USD constantly but people still refuse to spend. Actually, most people don't even get that printed money so they can spend. The newly printed money goes to the uber rich people instead.

This is going to blow up so bad but like I said, despite all the money the FED has printed, just because those elites refuse to distribute the money, the dollar liquidity will dry out and it'll moon... and go zero.

there's definitely some logic to what you're saying. but what's the timeline on that? will it coincide with a global economic crisis, or come before/after? i think that'll make a big difference for bitcoin's performance.

looking at the DXY (dollar index), the current chart quite reminds me of the late 90s. it definitely doesn't look ready for a crash yet. the stock market doesn't look ready yet either.

It could be the next year or 5 years later from now. It is a ticking bomb. They are doing anything to delay it, but they are running out of options.

The current monetary system we know actually collapsed completely in 2008. (Some say it was 2001) We are playing the overtime because of FED and its QE's.

They may try to get out of this by creating another WW. It is another option which is always on the table.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on March 30, 2019, 03:42:07 AM

it'll survive no matter what, but how well the price fares is a matter of time.

Agree. The technology is revolutionary and is robust enough such that it will survive a financial crisis--and remember, it was created right at the beginning of one. I've long suspected that bitcoin was a reaction to the housing/banking crisis and that Satoshi is not a single person, but I have no proof of that. It certainly was one hell of a coincidence that a bankless form of money was rolled out right when we almost had all of the banks collapse.

My real concern is not a financial disaster, but one that knocks out either the internet or our power grid. Obviously bitcoin would become extinct very quickly if either of those things occurred. But as long as we have electricity and internet, bitcoin is going to be there.

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Quote from: pinoyden on March 31, 2019, 11:45:28 PM

Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

Crypto pundits believe it's a replacement for fiat and soon to conquer the world financial system.

You mean / they mean the crypto ? Well cryptos are not meant for fiat repalcement . same goes to other payment methods . cryptos primary built is only to provide an alternative espcially for the people that does not want to exploit their privacy .

Well, we cannot completely overrule it because its speculation, as they say, out of every rumor lies the truth, some speculated values for bitcoin has come and gone, speculation is just for us to prepare for the known and the unknown and like you mentioned, crypto may not replace fiat because they all depend on each other, one cannot get crypto without changing fiat to it, crypto will just make it easy for us to be able to handle our fiat currency anonymously.

This cryptocurrency will only be still relevant in case of global crisis because it will assist in protecting the identity of those who will still not be affected by this crisis and help them also secure their funds.

guoyu78

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In the event of global financial crisis, bitcoin participation might be in 2 ways too, it could lead to many people who has stored bitcoin as store of value to start selling off their assets little by little to meet up with their daily needs but the market will still be much in operation because not many people will sell off their assets before the crisis ends.

In the other way round, there will also be many people going into trading to make money, some will look at it this way, if they sell off all their assets to meet up with their personal needs, what they will bank on after the assets finishes. This will push them into also trying to multiply whatever holding they have.

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Quote from: BlackPanda on April 01, 2019, 12:49:51 AM

Investors left and in the end they no longer trusted the government. A bad situation, of course, a lot of hunger, poverty and destruction. I am sad and I hope there won't be anything like this happening. If it is linked, then maybe crypto can be a solution, with a clear investment value so that everyone who was previously restricted can eventually invest freely in the whole world.

Investors never really trusted the government there to begin with. All they did was allow themselves to enjoy certain perks in return for their money, and as you can see, it didn't work out at all. I wonder how many of these investors were forced to leave everything behind out of fear. It's such a horrible situation, but one they have themselves to blame for.

I doubt crypto offers any sort of solution, especially when it comes to the poorest of the poorest. Smart money has various other ways to hedge the risk their governments exposes them to, where crypto represents just a fraction of that. I want to see much higher local volumes in order to see crypto play a more significant role over there.

Cnut237

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I do expect BTC to become a 'safe haven' during times of economic uncertainty. In fact we've seen it happen to an extent already in troubled economies such as Venezuela.
Before it becomes a viable option for most people though, we need: a) easy transfer between fiat and crypto, and b) greater BTC market stability.
I do expect this trend to continue and to grow as crypto markets mature.

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Quote from: pinoyden on March 31, 2019, 11:45:28 PM

Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

Crypto pundits believe it's a replacement for fiat and soon to conquer the world financial system.

You mean / they mean the crypto ? Well cryptos are not meant for fiat repalcement . same goes to other payment methods . cryptos primary built is only to provide an alternative espcially for the people that does not want to exploit their privacy .

in some ways this can be considered a "replacement" though. for example when you were previously paying for something with fiat (credit card,...) now you are paying with bitcoin. so you have replaced them with bitcoin.

what bitcoin is not, is a tool to "kill" all other payment methods and replace them "completely".

olumyd

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Quote

...economic chaos can result from a variety of things that are systemic and not just from a problem.

Indeed economic problems are systematic and despite the origin or size have a characteristic of rippling down to other systems and causing huge problems. As for Venezuela, the effect of the economic downturn has included a rise in emigration which in turn will affect the host country, as such, it will impact the economy of the host country as they were not prepared for it, which in turn will affect the residents as well. As everything is connected, what seems to start as a local problem becomes a global problem if unchecked.

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Quote from: BlackPanda on April 01, 2019, 12:49:51 AM

Quote from: olumyd on March 31, 2019, 08:14:33 AM

I strongly believe the situation in Venezuela is a test tube evidence of what might happen in the event of a wide scale economic depression, but what's unclear at this point is how other cryptocurrencies will fare at that point. While a success story for bitcoin might reflect on crypto as a whole, we may have a new set of problems, new investment vehicles and the risk of being exposed to more fraudulent crypto-related activities, which will in turn ripple back to bitcoin.

This is part of a process, but remember that economic chaos can result from a variety of things that are systemic and not just from a problem. As happened in Venezuela, the country is experiencing a tremendous economic crisis and the wrong problem is on the side of the government. Investors left and in the end they no longer trusted the government. A bad situation, of course, a lot of hunger, poverty and destruction. I am sad and I hope there won't be anything like this happening. If it is linked, then maybe crypto can be a solution, with a clear investment value so that everyone who was previously restricted can eventually invest freely in the whole world.

it is always from a "problem".
sometimes that problem is small and doesn't involve that many aspects of the country/world so the effects of it are small and local but some other times it is too big and involves a lot of aspects and the corruption which usually leads to that exists in economical infrastructure that collapse during the crisis which lead to all the things that follow.

BlackPanda

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Quote from: olumyd on March 31, 2019, 08:14:33 AM

I strongly believe the situation in Venezuela is a test tube evidence of what might happen in the event of a wide scale economic depression, but what's unclear at this point is how other cryptocurrencies will fare at that point. While a success story for bitcoin might reflect on crypto as a whole, we may have a new set of problems, new investment vehicles and the risk of being exposed to more fraudulent crypto-related activities, which will in turn ripple back to bitcoin.

This is part of a process, but remember that economic chaos can result from a variety of things that are systemic and not just from a problem. As happened in Venezuela, the country is experiencing a tremendous economic crisis and the wrong problem is on the side of the government. Investors left and in the end they no longer trusted the government. A bad situation, of course, a lot of hunger, poverty and destruction. I am sad and I hope there won't be anything like this happening. If it is linked, then maybe crypto can be a solution, with a clear investment value so that everyone who was previously restricted can eventually invest freely in the whole world.

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Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

Crypto pundits believe it's a replacement for fiat and soon to conquer the world financial system.

You mean / they mean the crypto ? Well cryptos are not meant for fiat repalcement . same goes to other payment methods . cryptos primary built is only to provide an alternative espcially for the people that does not want to exploit their privacy .

Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

What will happen in the event of another global financial crisis (GFC), as it is speculated that a GFC is meant to cycle in about a decade. According to Bitmex, the next wave of a GFC should truly test Bitcoin as a store of value, and I agree.
Will Bitcoin really survive the next financial holocaust?

Speculated ? Speculation means theres no guarntee or assurance that it will happen therfor lets not take this seriously but if that could really happen i believe bitcoin can survive and wont be directly affected because bitcoins are independent from cash .

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Quote from: sheenshane on March 31, 2019, 06:36:34 PM

Cryptocurrency/Bitcoin will have at least a 5% effect in the Global Economic Crisis. As I have read, there will be a big event where the crisis will go back to the global economy. The U.S is already investigating the trillion worth lending that would cause a big crisis in the world. Bitcoin will be one of the best choices for the tycoons to move their assets besides gold. However, gold is the best option during these kinds of scenarios. Gold is the best investment or asset and Bitcoin is an alternative only. But we will see it soon.

Bitcoin is really helps to reduce the demonetization problem so all the peoples are consider as a gold. Most of the developed countries trying to stop the Bitcoin adoption because this have occupy more revenue in future. Nowadays stablecoins are occupy the good marketcap because some peoples are not expecting the future profit but mostly human beings are always hungry in more money so more than 25% effect in the Global economy crisis.

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Cryptocurrency/Bitcoin will have at least a 5% effect in the Global Economic Crisis. As I have read, there will be a big event where the crisis will go back to the global economy. The U.S is already investigating the trillion worth lending that would cause a big crisis in the world. Bitcoin will be one of the best choices for the tycoons to move their assets besides gold. However, gold is the best option during these kinds of scenarios. Gold is the best investment or asset and Bitcoin is an alternative only. But we will see it soon.

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Not an economist though when it comes to economic crisis but asking if bitcoin will survive with the next crisis, ofcourse it will. Taking as an example for Venezuela, I've read some stories that people there are fleeing from the country itself.

While others who are in bitcoin/alt mining are hiding themselves but it's good to see them that they were able to survive, base on that interview. I can't remember the full interview, I saw it on FB.

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Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

Will Bitcoin really survive the next financial holocaust?

Really? That is your question. If Bitcoin will survive? Bitcoin will be an alternative after the crisis. Right now bitcoin is just an experiment. After the crisis it will be an alternative. Different groups of people will lean to Bitcoin while fighting others for political power.

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The article blames the banks for the previous crisis and says that the risks are now in the area of asset management, but essentially it was the problem the previous time as well. Yeah, banks gave away credits too easily. But what really made the thing way worse where bonds of bonds of bonds! The bubble grew because of the new levels of 'bets' not on the real estate, but on other bets on the real estate.

Quote from: talkbitcoin on March 30, 2019, 04:28:19 AM

i still don't understand why some people insist on saying or believing that bitcoin was created to "replace" fiat! bitcoin is the alternative not the replacement.

Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

Will Bitcoin really survive the next financial holocaust?

since bitcoin is not yet corrupted by the government or the banks and they are responsible for the economic crisis, there is no argument about bitcoin's survival! it is obvious it will survive.

the only question that is worth discussing is whether bitcoin price is going to shoot up to millions because of the crisis or will it not be impacted?

Well, I think that in the long run it's a replacement, because it's a way better alternative. And that's the reason why I'd answer positively to the question you find important. Bitcoin is not like fiat, and fiat can be abandoned after it collapses. The demand for uncontrolled cryptos will obviously grow in that case, and the value will grow, even though it would not make sense to measure it in relation to USD anymore. We'd see that the value has grown from what we'll be able to afford for 1 bitcoin.

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Quote from: mindrust on March 31, 2019, 08:22:58 AM

The Dollar is going to make one last moon shot before it collapses. Just like supernova. Bitcoin will survive no matter what happens but it is not going to moon right away.

The FED prints USD constantly but people still refuse to spend. Actually, most people don't even get that printed money so they can spend. The newly printed money goes to the uber rich people instead.

This is going to blow up so bad but like I said, despite all the money the FED has printed, just because those elites refuse to distribute the money, the dollar liquidity will dry out and it'll moon... and go zero.

there's definitely some logic to what you're saying. but what's the timeline on that? will it coincide with a global economic crisis, or come before/after? i think that'll make a big difference for bitcoin's performance.

looking at the DXY (dollar index), the current chart quite reminds me of the late 90s. it definitely doesn't look ready for a crash yet. the stock market doesn't look ready yet either.

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on March 30, 2019, 03:42:07 AM

it'll survive no matter what, but how well the price fares is a matter of time. if a global financial crisis began tomorrow, i think bitcoin would fall on really hard times. if the crisis begins 20 years from now (after bitcoin has grown exponentially network-wise and matured as an asset class), i think it will hold its value much better. maybe we'll find some middle ground between these two scenarios.

I also believe it will very well survive if a crisis creeps up in 20years time as you have made the analogy. However, my issue about such crisis (if something like warfare), will disturb network facilities but if for just economic crisis, bitcoin will survive because it would have been around the breadth and width of the world.

mindrust

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The Dollar is going to make one last moon shot before it collapses. Just like supernova. Bitcoin will survive no matter what happens but it is not going to moon right away.

The FED prints USD constantly but people still refuse to spend. Actually, most people don't even get that printed money so they can spend. The newly printed money goes to the uber rich people instead.

This is going to blow up so bad but like I said, despite all the money the FED has printed, just because those elites refuse to distribute the money, the dollar liquidity will dry out and it'll moon... and go zero.

BTC will collect what's left from those noobs.

olumyd

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I strongly believe the situation in Venezuela is a test tube evidence of what might happen in the event of a wide scale economic depression, but what's unclear at this point is how other cryptocurrencies will fare at that point. While a success story for bitcoin might reflect on crypto as a whole, we may have a new set of problems, new investment vehicles and the risk of being exposed to more fraudulent crypto-related activities, which will in turn ripple back to bitcoin.

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In the face of a great financial holocaust it is likely that before they think about Bitcoin, they will take refuge in gold shares, gold represents security and a great support, some investors will also go for bitcoin, thus giving a golden opportunity to the technology, that is why at the time of a financial holocaust, you must take necessary precautions, such as the possible failure of electricity and in turn that the Internet service falls, and without internet, the bitcoin would not make sense, I could trade, I think you should have diversification plans in front of these possible problems that may occur.

1Referee

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Quote from: buwaytress on March 30, 2019, 07:42:48 AM

When it comes, I'd rather have Bitcoin than not.

Same here. I am honestly not sure what will happen with Bitcoin when a crisis hits the world in terms of value, but there just isn't a way to hedge against it when you know there is a possibility that everything will go down hard.

I can only try to hedge against my government and its shitty fiat currency that keeps going down in value, and that for me is more than enough protection. Bitcoin is a must have in your portfolio nowadays, but not everyone understands that yet. If people did, Bitcoin would be trading closer to $100,000 by now, so we have more time to accumulate at fair prices.

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Bitcoin might play a bigger roll in certain countries with severe hyper inflation like Venuzuala during a financial crisis and play the complete opposite roll in first world nations like the USA.

Many people assume that everybody will be selling stocks and buying Bitcoin however Bitcoin is known as a highly risk-on asset, and those usually get sold-off during recessions. Also nobody will want to buy BTC when they saw how it went from $20K to $3K very quickly when in fact most stock market crashes never ended this badly before.

Also I don't think we are near a recession. People have been saying this since 2010 that a recession is coming and we had the biggest stock market bull run since 2009.

exstasie

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Quote from: buwaytress on March 30, 2019, 07:42:48 AM

On the other hand, a crisis means economic hardship. It means no jobs. No business. My friends and family, they're not Bitcoiners. They will be hit hard, and therefore, so will I.

Bitcoiners will be hit hard too. They'll be losing their jobs or seeing their businesses decline just like everyone else. They'll be pressured to sell their bitcoins just like others will be pressured to sell their stocks. Very few bitcoiners are filthy rich from investing in the early years. Most are just regular folks who will see their portfolios and savings decline and will need to tighten their belts.

That not only means increased selling pressure for Bitcoin but also a reduction in demand. If people are increasingly worried about being able to pay their rent/mortgage and putting food on the table, that means less disposable income for speculative investments like Bitcoin.

YuginKadoya

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I really think that bitcoin will not be affected that much by the Global Economic Crisis, There might be a downfall for the price but not that ultimate drop because some Fiat losses its value, I really think we can see an intact value of bitcoin I can see that the price is still large compared back then where we can see only a three digit value for bitcoin I really think that is a good opportunity as well for people to know that bitcoin is really a good investment for your future needs and because Cryptocurrency is a separate currency between every fiat out there, But still even though we're gonna have an Economic Crisis Cryptocurrency will not simply replace fiat and in my opinion it will surely gonna stay the same.

justspare

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I think I have mentioned this before but I like talking about it, the money people have and they can use to buy bitcoins will not be available during a GFC and because they do not have that much money than they will not be able to buy bitcoin too much. However at the same time, since dollar will lose value and people will want more money for their bitcoin the price will go up as well. Which means we will see less volume on bitcoin during a GFC however we will see the price going up.

It will create a very volatile bitcoin but it will also have a high price bitcoin. To think that bitcoin will come out of a GFC unharmed at all and even stronger is naive, you need to react to whats happening around you and just be affected less than they were affected which would be more than enough to show bitcoin is truly a great investment option.

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this has been discussed multiple times here before and I still think it is impossible to predict what will happen to bitcoin although I am leaning towards a rise in case of a global economic crisis.

but also I would say, like before, that it can greatly depend on the timing. we have seen how bitcoin has some kind of cycles when it comes to its price. it is always an overly excited big rise followed by another over excited (or depressed) correction before it is repeated again and price ends up at a higher level.
so if the "crisis" occurs during that rise, the price can shoot up to the moon much faster and bigger than a normal time and if it occurs during that downtrend we may see it become faster and bigger.

as for survival, it is obvious that bitcoin will survive in my opinion. it is not something that can be killed just because there some crisis in a sector unrelated to bitcoin as a global currency!

buwaytress

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I feel in two ways about this. On one hand, guys like us in Bitcoin might feel we have a better chance of seeing things go well for us. That's not guaranteed though. End of the day, money flows into bitcoin and if money isn't doing well, it's not flowing.

On the other hand, a crisis means economic hardship. It means no jobs. No business. My friends and family, they're not Bitcoiners. They will be hit hard, and therefore, so will I.

I'm certain we are headed for another crisis, it comes every decade or so, and seems to reverberate globally... So like it or not, we'll be in the thick of it.

When it comes, I'd rather have Bitcoin than not.

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Quote from: talkbitcoin on March 30, 2019, 04:28:19 AM

since bitcoin is not yet corrupted by the government or the banks and they are responsible for the economic crisis, there is no argument about bitcoin's survival! it is obvious it will survive.

the only question that is worth discussing is whether bitcoin price is going to shoot up to millions because of the crisis or will it not be impacted?

As bitcoin falls into the category of alternate investment vehicles, like gold, bitcoin also will remain undisturbed by governments and federal banks forever which may be the enough reason why bitcoin price will fly when people will lose their faith on their government and primary investment vehicles. An economy crisis will happen when money flow is getting affected then people look for securing their saving into alternate opportunities and with 10 years of successful run, I believe bitcoin may satisfy people with its decentralized characteristics.

As per few economists that another global economic crisis may not possible in near future but a slow down may happen as new innovations are lacking to keep money flow intact. Due to negative populations in many developed countries, such slow down is expected and manageable hence bitcoin may not get any chances to prove its strength in near future and may grow on its own ways and pace.

talkbitcoin

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All I know is that I know nothing.

i still don't understand why some people insist on saying or believing that bitcoin was created to "replace" fiat! bitcoin is the alternative not the replacement.

Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

Will Bitcoin really survive the next financial holocaust?

since bitcoin is not yet corrupted by the government or the banks and they are responsible for the economic crisis, there is no argument about bitcoin's survival! it is obvious it will survive.

the only question that is worth discussing is whether bitcoin price is going to shoot up to millions because of the crisis or will it not be impacted?

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: olumyd on March 30, 2019, 01:46:58 AM

What will happen in the event of another global financial crisis (GFC), as it is speculated that a GFC is meant to cycle in about a decade. According to Bitmex, the next wave of a GFC should truly test Bitcoin as a store of value, and I agree.

https://blog.bitmex.com/anatomy-of-the-next-global-financial-crisis/

Will Bitcoin really survive the next financial holocaust?

it'll survive no matter what, but how well the price fares is a matter of time. if a global financial crisis began tomorrow, i think bitcoin would fall on really hard times. if the crisis begins 20 years from now (after bitcoin has grown exponentially network-wise and matured as an asset class), i think it will hold its value much better. maybe we'll find some middle ground between these two scenarios.

the wild card is whether fiat currencies like the USD or EUR maintain confidence through all of this. if they were to collapse, hard money like gold and bitcoin would see a massive influx of investment IMO.

olumyd

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Crypto pundits believe it's a replacement for fiat and soon to conquer the world financial system. Well, there's a fairly stable economy as it is, and since "the epicenter of financial risks have shifted from the banks to asset management industry," it's important to ponder on some reality checks while the digital asset industry is plagued with the bear.

What will happen in the event of another global financial crisis (GFC), as it is speculated that a GFC is meant to cycle in about a decade. According to Bitmex, the next wave of a GFC should truly test Bitcoin as a store of value, and I agree.

https://blog.bitmex.com/anatomy-of-the-next-global-financial-crisis/

Will Bitcoin really survive the next financial holocaust?

Topic: Bitcoin in the Event of a Global Economic Crisis (Read 353 times)