Bitcoin is not anywhere close to a BUBBLE - Altcoins are in a BUBBLE!

d5000

legendary

Activity: 3906

Merit: 6249

Decentralization Maximalist

Quote from: talkbitcoin on May 27, 2017, 04:54:35 AM

but for altcoins there is nothing to use them in. the only usage they have is to be traded so anybody who buys them is either an speculator or a newbie panic seller.

For now, yes. But I don't deny that some altcoins have the potential to have real world use cases in the future.

By the way: My opinion about the topic of this thread has changed a bit. With UASF, UAHF and similar solutions, Bitcoin's leadership is at risk more than ever. If the U*-Solutions make progress, then Bitcoin is definitively overvalued and I think neither of the chains (UASF, UAHF and legacy) will have a price of more than $1000. Some altcoins, like ETH and Ripple (the only two that have really significant usage for now), could then be stabler than Bitcoin.

LFC_Bitcoin

legendary

Activity: 3556

Merit: 9709

#1 VIP Crypto Casino

I hope the OP is right & altcoins are in a bubble, their growth especially ETH has been huge. They need bringing down to earth. Hopefully all the money flows back into bitcoin.

ngin-x

full member

Activity: 308

Merit: 100

If you look at it percentage wise, Bitcoin's growth has been relatively healthy. Sure it can go down a bit in the short term but there are too many bulls behind BTC at the moment and they will drive the price back up.

But I am worried about the altcoins. Each and every altcoin including the ones that nobody would touch with a barge pole has been pumped to high heaven in the last 50 days.

Ethereum has grown nearly 40x in the last few months. How is that sustainable despite all the good fundamentals? Some of the other lesser known alt coins have seen even 100x or 200x growth. I think we are going to come down hard at some point and it will happen so fast that we will have no place to hide Cry

talkbitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1372

Merit: 1032

All I know is that I know nothing.

Quote from: d5000 on May 27, 2017, 12:03:56 AM

OK, the bubble popped now - both in Bitcoin and in altcoins.

If you see Coinmarketcap now, you can see that - like I expected - altcoins have lost more value than Bitcoin in this downward move. For example, BTC as of now lost 11% in the last 24 hours, Ethereum 16% and NEM, ETC and LTC more than 20%, and there are only 5 smaller alts in the top 100 that could increase their price measured in USD. That will probably continue to be the dominant trend in the coming days and weeks, even if there will be, sure, dead cat bounces of descending highs.

it is all about who buys these things.
for bitcoin there will always be a demand from all kinds of different people, investors aka speculators who just want to trade, newbies who want to play at this game of speculation aka panic sellers, many people who find out about this great technology, many who want to spend it as a currency and a lot more.

but for altcoins there is nothing to use them in. the only usage they have is to be traded so anybody who buys them is either an speculator or a newbie panic seller.

when dumping begins panic sellers start in the second phase to shake themselves out and since altcoin market is full of them it will crash much harder and since the demand is never there it crashes even harder.

but with bitcoin as we have seen many times, the dump comes panic sellers create that beautiful big red candle all the way down and on the bottom the whales are ready to greet them with their open buy orders. Cheesy

Slow death

legendary

Activity: 3262

Merit: 1130

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: 2017Bubble on May 21, 2017, 08:37:11 PM

We need to kill ETH first.

ha ha ha ha ha

You told a very good joke.

Quote from: ridery99 on May 27, 2017, 01:55:02 AM

Yes they are, except Litecoin.

Ha ha ha

I agree, LTC is different. Ha ha ha

Quote from: d5000 on May 27, 2017, 12:03:56 AM

OK, the bubble popped now - both in Bitcoin and in altcoins.

If you see Coinmarketcap now, you can see that - like I expected - altcoins have lost more value than Bitcoin in this downward move. For example, BTC as of now lost 11% in the last 24 hours, Ethereum 16% and NEM, ETC and LTC more than 20%, and there are only 5 smaller alts in the top 100 that could increase their price measured in USD. That will probably continue to be the dominant trend in the coming days and weeks, even if there will be, sure, dead cat bounces of descending highs.

In poloniex it's all red

Denker

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1016

Quote from: Catmony on May 26, 2017, 12:47:42 PM

Things have changed a lot these days, bitcoin no longer have huge dominance. This shows people are also interested in alts and this may remain same for next few years, alts price is still very small which can be pumped easily so biggest bubble is on alts not in bitcoin.

95% of the shitcoins is vaporware and will end as penny stocks or completely disappear.
Lot's of people will get burned and learn it the hard way that in the long term Bitcoin is the right coin to pick for a solid value.
But of course you can try to find the needle in that huge altcoin hey stack. That's like buying a lottery ticket.

ridery99

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Yes they are, except Litecoin.

dothebeats

legendary

Activity: 3542

Merit: 1352

Sure the $2700 was a bubble as well and not just the altcoin markets. Bitcoin, though a rather stronger asset ckmpared to alts, is also in a bubble. See how both assets share both trends? Only in the alt market it is a much higher increase/decrease. I don't see that the $2000 market will hold for long, but if it does, then this bubble isn't over yet perhaps.

d5000

legendary

Activity: 3906

Merit: 6249

Decentralization Maximalist

OK, the bubble popped now - both in Bitcoin and in altcoins.

If you see Coinmarketcap now, you can see that - like I expected - altcoins have lost more value than Bitcoin in this downward move. For example, BTC as of now lost 11% in the last 24 hours, Ethereum 16% and NEM, ETC and LTC more than 20%, and there are only 5 smaller alts in the top 100 that could increase their price measured in USD. That will probably continue to be the dominant trend in the coming days and weeks, even if there will be, sure, dead cat bounces of descending highs.

Catmony

hero member

Activity: 854

Merit: 500

Things have changed a lot these days, bitcoin no longer have huge dominance. This shows people are also interested in alts and this may remain same for next few years, alts price is still very small which can be pumped easily so biggest bubble is on alts not in bitcoin.

BitcoinPC

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 500

Quote from: User705 on May 21, 2017, 09:50:35 PM

But last time alt coins collapsed along with bitcoin. Not sure it will be that much different this time. The top is always characterized by stupid alt coin valuations. I mean DOGE is up x10! WTF! June-July Chinese BTC gets released. That will show what's what.

I think only altcoins are tend to go up and down and we need to closely monitor them if we need really trading them. For bitcoins the prices are real ones and there is no bubble. Even though the prices are rising up high but these are all due to the demand and trust which bitcoin has developed over the time. The Bitcoin high prices are making the altcoin rise to such a extent as you mentioned Doge 10x prices and similarly many other altcoins.

AK47-

sr. member

Activity: 644

Merit: 250

If we go by the bitcoin chart. Anybody can say that it is a bubble. Whenever such situations occur in stock or commodity or any other currency as happening with bitcoin at present, they usually end up in tears. There will be correction going to take place that too soon. All the signs are there, from a distorted chart to ridiculous predictions, but for those who believe that Bitcoin really is the future that doesn’t matter. People like me will keep on holding.

Salsifis

newbie

Activity: 4

Merit: 0

Both are in the greatest bubble of their history. However, I think both bubbles are will not pop out too violently and will keep somehow their actual values.

d5000

legendary

Activity: 3906

Merit: 6249

Decentralization Maximalist

Quote from: megashira1 on May 25, 2017, 12:54:46 AM

First all the new $ needs to filter into it via ALTs ..

Not necessarily. Many of the larger altcoins are actually listed on exchanges where they can directly be traded to USD, CNY, JPY or EUR - for example, Kraken.

So there is no need for the panic-sellers to go through Bitcoin when leaving the altcoin ship.

Even if some of them leave the altcoin ship via Bitcoin, that won't increase Bitcoin's USD/EUR/JPY price necessarily. Because some of them - mostly the scared panic-sellers - would directly sell their BTC to fiat and drive down the price even further.

The only hope for Bitcoin is that some altcoin speculators discover the "secure cryptocurrency gold" and invest medium- or long-term in it. But that's not close to being mandatory. If Bitcoin's price goes further down, then it's far more probable that they will sell their coins for fiat.

megashira1

legendary

Activity: 1146

Merit: 1000

Quote from: malami on May 25, 2017, 12:49:36 AM

I think its more accurate to say everything is in a bubble, bitcoin doesn't get a free pass. When the bubble bursts alts will drop lower due to the bigger rise but bitcoin is headed down at some point too. Every single time it goes up so fast people say there is no bubble but it always ends up crashing.

BTC will reach a tipping point but its bubble is at the early stages. First all the new $ needs to filter into it via ALTs ..

malami

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

I think its more accurate to say everything is in a bubble, bitcoin doesn't get a free pass. When the bubble bursts alts will drop lower due to the bigger rise but bitcoin is headed down at some point too. Every single time it goes up so fast people say there is no bubble but it always ends up crashing.

megashira1

legendary

Activity: 1146

Merit: 1000

*yawn*

This trend will continue until BTC reaches $4k

d5000

legendary

Activity: 3906

Merit: 6249

Decentralization Maximalist

Quote from: jubalix on May 21, 2017, 09:37:12 PM

I am not so sure any conventional tradeing system analysis can apply to BTC tech.

I see it as BTC is expanding into the existing money sphere, and there is nothing to stop it.

Yes, I know the "technologic adoption" theory. But that's a long term theory. Here in this thread we are talking about short- and medium-term overheatings (called popularly "bubbles" Wink

). I am also long term bullish on cryptocurrencies in general and Bitcoin in particular (if the Segwit discussion does not ruin its leadership) but I get the impression that the price evolution is overheating, as of now. Obviously, most altcoins are overheating even more. I am really surprised that some coins that have no real usage still grow - the crash will be even harder then.

Apart from that, I cannot see real "mainstream adoption" advances in 2017 so far. The "Japan hype" is probably only a speculative bubble as there is little-to-none growth if you take the number of full nodes in Japan as a measure (around 80, the same as in early April).

Ahab_Hunter_of_BearWhale

member

Activity: 137

Merit: 11

A good point you make comparing BTC's 10x rise in 2013 in 3 months to barely doubling over 3 months recently. When I talk to others, even those that I've recommended investing in btc that have, or lament about not having done so, they often ask is it in a bubble (For non-financey people it's "is the price too high, should I sell?") I tell em that 10k was what many big industry players thought the price might go to in 2013 during the last rise, around there might be where it'd be good to take stock of things during this run, which I think is only getting started. BTC is still tiny, gota not fall into the trap of thinking - it's not likely or less likely to rise, because it has already increased - comparing it to other mkt's it is still a minow.
XRP may keep rising longterm, it offers a unique trust model. Nem, honestly I did a bit of reading and research, not too much admittedly because I really couldn't find anything that unique or interesting about Nem. But then again I dismissed Gamecredits and followed that since launch, ow ow ow ow >.<

User705

legendary

Activity: 896

Merit: 1006

First 100% Liquid Stablecoin Backed by Gold

But last time alt coins collapsed along with bitcoin. Not sure it will be that much different this time. The top is always characterized by stupid alt coin valuations. I mean DOGE is up x10! WTF! June-July Chinese BTC gets released. That will show what's what.

jubalix

legendary

Activity: 2674

Merit: 1029

Quote from: d5000 on May 21, 2017, 02:50:58 PM

Quote from: megashira1 on May 20, 2017, 04:40:43 PM

BITCOIN is not anywhere close to being a bubble. The price has barely even doubled the past 3 months. $1000 - $2000

The past 3 months are only the last "leg" of the current rally.

The actual Bitcoin rally begun in late 2014, at $135, and price has increased about 15 times since then - isn't that spectacular?

There was healthy growth until the halving overheating in mid-2016, then there came the first major correction, then it overheated again in late 2016, when the second correction came which was much sharper but lasted only a few weeks.

According to the Elliot waves theory we are now in the last stage of the rally (wave 5).

I agree with you that altcoins also are in a bubble and that their bubble will most likely pop before Bitcoin's bubble. I see two possible outcomes:

- Bitcoin gets Segwit or another scaling solution relatively soon: Altcoins will lose over 50% (speculation-only coins over 80%) and Bitcoin goes to 3000-5000 USD with the capital that came from alts.
- Bitcoin does not get Segwit (e.g. a failed BIP 148): Bitcoin can continue a bit more, but the bubble will pop most likely before $3000. Altcoins will stagnate and then both bubbles will pop at the same time.

I am not so sure any conventional tradeing system analysis can apply to BTC tech.

I see it as BTC is expanding into the existing money sphere, and there is nothing to stop it.

jubalix

legendary

Activity: 2674

Merit: 1029

Quote from: Junko on May 21, 2017, 08:25:03 PM

In before Bubble Cycle Chart.

When we look back 10 - 20 years from now at the Bitcoin chart history, this rise to $2K will look like hardly a blip. There will be corrections along the way for sure, but yeah, bitcoin is not in a bubble.

This exactly....critical mass has been achieved....its a forgone conclusion at this point....

2017Bubble

full member

Activity: 121

Merit: 100

We need to kill ETH first.

Junko

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1000

In before Bubble Cycle Chart.

When we look back 10 - 20 years from now at the Bitcoin chart history, this rise to $2K will look like hardly a blip. There will be corrections along the way for sure, but yeah, bitcoin is not in a bubble.

btcdevil

legendary

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1027

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on May 20, 2017, 08:48:18 PM

Eh, I'm interested in holding paper money. It's true that bitcoin (currently) is offering a far greater return than cash money, but how long is it going to be before we get a huge correction? If you don't think this price rise has bubble-character, you're out of your mind. I'm hoping we go much higher, but rising too fast just historically isn't good. What goes up must come down--eventually.

What you are telling about the price going down it is correct but their wont be major correction because most of them are ready to buy back on correction. This price rise is due to the country starting to accept bitcoin as currency and started to implement bitcoin as legal in their country

DrGuns4Hands

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 550

We aren't there yet. The people who talk about this is just to alarm others with there investments. Maybe to aware them in there money. But as I was saying, we aren't there yet. It's just a speculation. This thing is to test people if they are going to hold or sell there bitcoin if bitcoin is a bubble.

d5000

legendary

Activity: 3906

Merit: 6249

Decentralization Maximalist

Quote from: megashira1 on May 20, 2017, 04:40:43 PM

BITCOIN is not anywhere close to being a bubble. The price has barely even doubled the past 3 months. $1000 - $2000

The past 3 months are only the last "leg" of the current rally.

The actual Bitcoin rally begun in late 2014, at $135, and price has increased about 15 times since then - isn't that spectacular?

There was healthy growth until the halving overheating in mid-2016, then there came the first major correction, then it overheated again in late 2016, when the second correction came which was much sharper but lasted only a few weeks.

According to the Elliot waves theory we are now in the last stage of the rally (wave 5).

I agree with you that altcoins also are in a bubble and that their bubble will most likely pop before Bitcoin's bubble. I see two possible outcomes:

- Bitcoin gets Segwit or another scaling solution relatively soon: Altcoins will lose over 50% (speculation-only coins over 80%) and Bitcoin goes to 3000-5000 USD with the capital that came from alts.
- Bitcoin does not get Segwit (e.g. a failed BIP 148): Bitcoin can continue a bit more, but the bubble will pop most likely before $3000. Altcoins will stagnate and then both bubbles will pop at the same time.

Denker

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1016

Quote from: talkbitcoin on May 21, 2017, 04:28:40 AM

Quote from: megashira1 on May 20, 2017, 04:40:43 PM

XRP is going to implode. STR is going to implode. NEM is going to implode. DASH is going to implode. ETH is going to implode. And many others...

The Altcoin bubble will collapse sending bitcoin < $4000 before the end of the year.

i doubt that these big coins implode. and that is the worst kind of dump that we can imagine. these are big and have attracted a lot of investors, many of them newbies. and whales are never idiots to cash out all at once and kill the coin right then and there. that is what they do with small coins.

with bigger coins they will start their exit slowly, the price goes on a downward spiral but very slow. it dips then stops, people gain some hope, then it dips again, and same happens until price is crashed without any of the bag holders even noticing.

You call these guys investors??? Really?
I think the term gamblers fits much better.
And I agree with op. Also these tier 1 shitcoins will see a massive correction. There are already lots of guys who are just waiting for the trend reversal to short that stuff heavily!

talkbitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1372

Merit: 1032

All I know is that I know nothing.

Quote from: megashira1 on May 20, 2017, 04:40:43 PM

XRP is going to implode. STR is going to implode. NEM is going to implode. DASH is going to implode. ETH is going to implode. And many others...

The Altcoin bubble will collapse sending bitcoin < $4000 before the end of the year.

i doubt that these big coins implode. and that is the worst kind of dump that we can imagine. these are big and have attracted a lot of investors, many of them newbies. and whales are never idiots to cash out all at once and kill the coin right then and there. that is what they do with small coins.

with bigger coins they will start their exit slowly, the price goes on a downward spiral but very slow. it dips then stops, people gain some hope, then it dips again, and same happens until price is crashed without any of the bag holders even noticing.

Denker

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1016

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on May 20, 2017, 08:48:18 PM

Eh, I'm interested in holding paper money. It's true that bitcoin (currently) is offering a far greater return than cash money, but how long is it going to be before we get a huge correction? If you don't think this price rise has bubble-character, you're out of your mind. I'm hoping we go much higher, but rising too fast just historically isn't good. What goes up must come down--eventually.

Have you realized that Bitcoin constantly corrected on the way up to where we are now?!
This is called healthy growth. Bitcoin was almost 2 years in a bear market and heavily undervalued when it reached the bottom around 160. What you're witnessing now is the long overdue upwards correction!!
Bitcoin will correct downwards in a huge scale when it will enter the bubble phase!But we aren't there yet.
Let it rise to 10k the next 4-6 months and then I agree we will see a major correction down to where we are now!

raven7886

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1041

Quote from: w0lverine on May 20, 2017, 08:14:45 PM

Very well observed. I wonder how the order books looked back then and now.

By 2013, we had only one major exchange hence obviously there were different market behaviors. But now we are having exchanges spread every part of this world and we have government recognized exchanges too. But by considering number of traders then and now and spread of exchanges, I guess there will be no significant differences could be observed in terms of number of trades/volume in one particular exchange.

Quote from: w0lverine on May 20, 2017, 08:14:45 PM

Any support or resistance difference?

Support and resistance do follow market prices with 5% to 15% gap (support and resistance in down and up respectively). These are just physiological levels of traders hence actually not existing anywhere in markets. No significant value here.

cryptodontus

newbie

Activity: 37

Merit: 0

Quote from: kwukduck on May 20, 2017, 05:32:04 PM

Ah yes the strong fundamebtals we have now...
Like the networks inability to process transactions in a reasonable time with reasonable fee.
Oh and those amazing privacy features that are non existent.
Ahh yes and the upcoming hard fork.

Thise are great fundamentals to build a fiat-greedy hype economy on..

I don't think you understand what a "reasonable" fee really is. You are using the word reasonable like it means "insignificant", which is the type of fee you've become accustomed to paying.

Have you tried sending money via Moneygram or Western Union lately (or ever)?

Hard fork isn't going to happen.

All in all, you've been taking the FUD pill.

EDIT (im in newb mode): Should have noticed I was replying to kwuckduck, LMAO

keep on quacking, I'll keep stacking

Herbert2020

legendary

Activity: 1946

Merit: 1137

Quote from: w0lverine on May 20, 2017, 08:14:45 PM

Very well observed. I wonder how the order books looked back then and now. Any support or resistance difference? How about volume?

everything points towards an altcoin pump.
back then the orderbooks were nearly empty with occasional buy walls being placed at strategic prices to prevent hard crashes of the altcoin prices while the pumpers kept on accumulating.
after they were done accumulating shitcoins then the spamvertising campaign started and the pump followed. the orderbooks changed and volume went up (as it always does during pumps).

if you look at the charts they look ridiculous. the volume before the pumping month starts is practically nonexistent.

I Am Hero

member

Activity: 81

Merit: 10

ah it doesn't matter how many times you tell them, they will continue to pour their money into the bubble altcoins and when the whales decided to dump the price they will run back crying.

some people just have to experience the bad stuff to learn.

The Sceptical Chymist

legendary

Activity: 3556

Merit: 7011

Top Crypto Casino

Eh, I'm interested in holding paper money. It's true that bitcoin (currently) is offering a far greater return than cash money, but how long is it going to be before we get a huge correction? If you don't think this price rise has bubble-character, you're out of your mind. I'm hoping we go much higher, but rising too fast just historically isn't good. What goes up must come down--eventually.

w0lverine

jr. member

Activity: 44

Merit: 12

Very well observed. I wonder how the order books looked back then and now. Any support or resistance difference? How about volume?

1Referee

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1427

Quote from: kwukduck on May 20, 2017, 05:32:04 PM

Ah yes the strong fundamebtals we have now...

Fundamentals are strong, you're absolutely right! Wink

Quote from: kwukduck on May 20, 2017, 05:32:04 PM

Like the networks inability to process transactions in a reasonable time with reasonable fee.

Blame miners for choking the network with rubbish transactions to boost their fee income, and blame them directly too for not letting Segwit activate.

Quote from: kwukduck on May 20, 2017, 05:32:04 PM

Oh and those amazing privacy features that are non existent.

Bitcoin was never meant to provide any real anon features, so keep farting.

Quote from: kwukduck on May 20, 2017, 05:32:04 PM

Ahh yes and the upcoming hard fork.

It is and has always been a potential hard fork, and that's really it.

kwukduck

legendary

Activity: 1937

Merit: 1001

Ah yes the strong fundamebtals we have now...
Like the networks inability to process transactions in a reasonable time with reasonable fee.
Oh and those amazing privacy features that are non existent.
Ahh yes and the upcoming hard fork.

Thise are great fundamentals to build a fiat-greedy hype economy on..

ssmc2

legendary

Activity: 2002

Merit: 1040

Word

megashira1

legendary

Activity: 1146

Merit: 1000

BITCOIN is not anywhere close to being a bubble. The price has barely even doubled the past 3 months. $1000 - $2000

Compared to the last bubble, which was artificially imposed and had much weaker fundamentals than now, Bitcoin rose almost 10x in 3 months. $130 - $1330

However, we ARE in the GREATEST ALT BUBBLE of ALL TIME. Alts have collectively risen over 13x from a capitalization of $2.8b to a staggering $36b in 3 months.

When this thing implodes, and it WILL implode, where do you think people are going to run to? BITCOIN of course. And no, people will not be running to fiat because all the fresh blood that got into crypto is looking to STAY in crypto.

Noone is interested in holding paper money.

XRP is going to implode. STR is going to implode. NEM is going to implode. DASH is going to implode. ETH is going to implode. And many others...

The Altcoin bubble will collapse sending bitcoin < $4000 before the end of the year.

Topic: Bitcoin is not anywhere close to a BUBBLE - Altcoins are in a BUBBLE! (Read 2476 times)