Topic: Bitcoin - is the bottom in? (Read 414 times)

All extremes are bad because they do not allow us to see the world as it is, those that are always bearish about bitcoin may have been extremely happy during 2022 as they were thinking they knew everything there was to know about bitcoin due to the negative trend we suffered back then, but so far 2023 is a year that is proving them wrong and they cannot accept this, so they fabricate all kind of excuses so they do not have to admit they are wrong.

that is the main reason why I put this post here because it is our money and it is something we must be concern off, people are easy to say this or that because it is not their money so why they need to concern when they only need post counts but it wont be their reality in life and specially to mention? most of those people are not even a true investors lol.

We are risking with our own money, so I think we need to have realistic thoughts and not be too delusional about an always bullish market. Over-optimism sometimes does more harm than good. I still expect bitcoin to recover this year, but I always have a plan B in case of bitcoin drops again. In addition to the market cycle, we also need to pay attention to world economic developments, this is the main factor in determining the direction of the market. This is the first time bitcoin has experienced an economic crisis, there will most likely be some changes, so always have a backup plan.

The "reason" for 2021 increase was basically halving (means change in supply)? I do not really see any other big reason for it to be like this at all. I know that it is not going to be something simple like that easily, but it should be something that we could enjoy very much so. I know that it is going to be as entertaining as it gets, but that doesn't change the fact that we are going to end up with the same thing over and over again.

Probably we are going to see ATH this year, or the next, but I think we could, maybe we will or maybe we won't but just because it may not, doesn't mean it can not, those are two different things. It can pass ATH this year, it may not, but it can.

even how optimistic you are mate but always remember being reality , the market has no reason to grow as much as 2021 so why expect ATH this year or  the next?
you also need to understand that the market trend change mostly in every 4-5 years cycle as what we have seen in the space for many times now.
so unless you are intending to be failure then believe in what you wanted now.

Early in the year, of course I'm optimistic that the market will be easy to rise and like the trend that occurred in 2021, at the beginning of the year the price rose by more than 25% and continued to rise until it reached ATH in April, even though the price fell again but at the end of the year it could reach ATH again, unfortunately in 2022 there are many cases that make investors panic and hit lows at $15k, and hopefully it won't happen again.

This seems like the correct way to look at things, we know that a bull season cannot start until the halving takes place, and since that is not the case it is very difficult for the price to move positively, and right now we are seeing an example of this, bitcoin has been moving positively since the beginning of the year but as soon as the month of March began the price started showing signs that a small reversal is probably coming.

It is true that the market is unpredictable, but that does not mean it is impossible to predict, if no one guesses, we all lose, but we also have a lot of people making money in the market meaning the market can still be predicted.

Those who study hard and accumulate experience and skills, they can make predictions that can bring them profits, while those who are lazy but want to make quick money will pay the price with their money.

I see the unpredictable market as a good and fair thing, those who work hard always pay off.

You are right that the cryptocurrency market can be unpredictable and difficult to predict. The price of cryptocurrencies can fluctuate greatly over short periods, making it challenging for traders and investors to determine when to buy or sell.

But, though it's true that the market can be unpredictable, it doesn't mean that it's impossible to make informed decisions based on market trends, technical analysis, and fundamental factors. Experienced and knowledgeable traders and investors use a variety of tools and strategies to analyze the market and make educated guesses about future price movements.

We are not yet free of the bears and 2023 is still bear season. Bitcoin's price rally over the past 2 months is just a short-term bull run, not a sign of a bull season. Even though bitcoin fell below $22k at one point, I believe this drop will not be able to get below $20k, meaning we have bottomed for this year's bear season, and it happened last year.

     -   In what happened today in the market regarding the value of Bitcoin these past 8 hrs ago, its bottom price fell by 21973$ and rose again at present by 22300 almost.

Because of this incident, I think it is clear that we are still in the bearish stage and we are not yet in the bullish season. But even so, we still need to be prepared, let's just think that this is the time to buy bitcoin and then hold, it's that simple to understand.

There are still many different ways to make money from Bitcoin. Investors should always use their own judgment when investing.  There are two aspects of investing, one is to earn money by investing for short time and another is to invest for long term and there is a great opportunity to earn a lot of money. Choose either one. Then there is an opportunity to earn a lot of money from here.

You are free to what to believe mate and that is your rights as investors but the goal here is to how we will make money in this coin mate.
Bitcoin seems to be up and down since last year , some says this is the effect of recovery and also correction , but whatever the point is? we must always consider buying when the price is low and then wait till it grows.

That is one way to deal with this, but another way to do this is instead to look at the fall of the price as something positive, people get scared when the price goes down as they think of all the money they are losing and the money they could lose if such movement continues, but if instead of thinking that way people think about such a drop as an opportunity to buy bitcoin for a discount and buy the dip then they will look forward to see a drop instead of fearing it.

but what? when and where did I said something about your concern? I was just pointing that same thread had been created recently and your post is something about what? lol what is optimism in my post?
who are subjective? did you really understand what I am saying here? and back up plan? i am only concerning the same posting and threads and what had been said on those thread and it is not my posts lol.

It cant really be that predictable in the first place and we know that this market is truly that unpredictable and there's no way or someone could able to see on where it would be going.
There's no way that we could determine whether its already be bottom or not and it is really hard to determine on when it would be going up or down.If it was predictable
on the first place then all of us would be making money and also it cant be called a market since it doesnt really getting involved buy
and sell on this case.

I don't and I disagree with him. I think we do not need to have a freefall type of thing and we shouldn't be really worried about where we will end up, it may not look amazing as of right now, but it's fine and we should be feeling fine about the potential we already have. It's good enough for all of us and it should stay good enough.

At the end of the day, crypto is not really that confusing and we should be basically making a good amount of change whenever we can about the price and right now we are trying to make a change upwards and failed a few times but that doesn't mean that we can't keep trying, as long as people have those hundreds of billions of dollars worth stablecoins, we can keep trying.

True, it is better to focus on collecting more bitcoins than to think about the next low for bitcoin because that can make us miss buying at low prices. It's okay to buy on the dips, although there will still be a few more dips before the price starts to increase, and we can use those more dips to buy again.

When we believe that bitcoin will rise again, we will definitely use the moment of decline to buy more and hold more. And many people have proven that when they buy at a low price, they can sell it at a high price, even though the price hasn't reached its peak yet.

Do you have a stronger basis of reference when saying there must be a sacrifice such as a free fall to a lower price and then bounce back up?
Because if you can figure it out in time, you will get rich quicker by buying Bitcoin at a low price and then selling it at a bull run price. So I also want to know this more precisely so that I can prepare a large amount of buying funds, because previously I thought that Bitcoin could increase without having to make corrections even though corrections are always in the market.

I agree we shouldn't really be here, its gone too far or stayed for long below the 200 week average and almost always BTC does not act like this.    Its quite worrying to some, since June last year we've been submerged in that way and normally BTC floats above the 200 week even if its 'low' we go into a lull and stay sideways while things work themselves out.
The lows in years after 2013 peak that to me were the worst kind of drop out that I can remember, over a year below 200 week vs now only 8 months so far.      I think 2014 and for a couple of years it was quiet.  2013 peak was headlines on main channel news as I remember and after, much silence though some involved continued of course and thats the most important thing.    BTC at present has stayed in the headlines but with negatives like exchanges falling or a stable coin, of course none are directly BTC so should be taken as a false sell scenario really.


If I fall through thin ice, in a negative scenario but climb back out even afterwards there is some recovery in that struggle.  So I do see 2023 a bit like this, we have yet to fight back above 200 week average and its an important fight for this very long term measure.   Even after that fight is won, energy is used up we must build strength before all this talk of higher prices we wont be sprinting imo not this year and thats ok also.

Swinging still .. we got ourselves saved at the $20k line.

The next time the market dropped to the latest and lowest line below $15k or so ... we might get drowned deeper even more than before ... as the next ath will always requires a sacrifice like a freefall into 5 year low to get bounced later in the halving day.

This is a guarantee for the whales but for little investors, it can't be helped but only to buy in portions into their most available amount on their pockets ready to be spent.

Did I missed something yesterday that bitcoin have reached $15k yesterday? IIRC, it wasn't yesterday but yes it did reached $15k but not yesterday.

For long term investors, no need to be wary at these motions side by side by bitcoin. We all know where it's heading.

It may not guarantee it, but to constantly think about how long it could get is also not the solution neither. You need to keep focusing on how great it could get, not how low it could get in order to make it work. If we keep focusing on how low it could get then we are going to be scared of every single small drop and that's not going to work for us at all, it will definitely cause a ton of trouble, and we will end up selling very early, when we shouldn't.

However if we keep on believing that it will go up, then we would not be focusing on how it will go down, and drops won't matter to us, because we will be simply expecting it to go up instead.

Technically, historically and fundamentally such expectations are wrong
For starters reaching $20k itself without going below it was unreasonable since it was way below the intrinsic value. Historically speaking reaching the peak of the previous ATH is also unprecedented, if you look at each cycle we never see the previous peak be reached even after the market crash let alone go under it! For example in 2014 price went as low as $150 whereas previous cycle's peak was roughly $20. Same in 2018 that crash brought the price as low as $3100 whereas previous peak was $1100 (in 2013). But this time despite previous peak being $20k and this cycle's peak not being a peak at all, the price went down to $20k and lower.

That's not even to mention the fact that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation and failing fiat system so technically it should have gone up. We also see the increasing adoption which is another reason why expecting bigger drops was and is unrealistic.

Those who have bought bitcoin at high prices must be able to keep their emotions in check because of course they will often see the price rise and fall before it finally rises again. But many people had taken advantage of this moment by buying many bitcoins, especially when yesterday's price dropped to $15k. We can only wait patiently and don't need to worry about the market situation because everything will improve. And we will get big profits again.

I thought it could be lower still though initially I was surprised we didnt just stay in the 20k prices, it was always possible we could stretch an elastic BTC price negatively to get like 10k.  I just dont think that would have lasted long, we did probably go far enough downwards and find not much interest in selling exists there so yea I'd guess the bottom price or very close to it is  decided.    A bigger deal is how long we idle on the lows maybe, the lowest price is rarely found or traded by that many people most already sold along the way and/or did not have presence around the time of the low.
  Is buying here fair will answer the OP question, I think its fair to buy in the 20k prices still and works ok long term if you can handle the wait.

Optimism is good, but what proof do you have that what you say will happen in the future? Anything can happen, don't be too subjective, always have a backup plan if things don't go as we expected. I still expect bitcoin to continue to rise, but I do not rule out the possibility that it will fall.

Hopefully what you are thinking right now can really happen to Bitcoin. And you also don't have to think that it's the fault of those who wait for the price to drop first and then buy, because buying Bitcoin at a lower price opens up more profit opportunities than buying at a price currently circulating in the market. Although those who bought at the current price are also not wrong, it's just that the profit won't be that much if they sell again when the Bitcoin price reaches $ 25K again.

bottom thing again? we have couple of threads about this recently and yes it has been asked if 14-15k is the bottom and having that said? look at the market price right before you posted this?
and you will find that Bitcoin had already increased up to more than 20k and still pumping so how could you have this as thread now?
bitcoin had its bottom and now readying to take second level in which 30k.

In short, it's all speculation, and no one can make an accurate prediction about bitcoin. For those who bought bitcoins last year, they are hoping the market will rebound and rise again, so as to make a profit from their investment. And for those who still haven't bought bitcoin or want to buy more bitcoin cheaply, they are expecting bitcoin to drop again. All possibilities are possible, as long as we prepare a plan for both scenarios, then we don't need to worry too much about bitcoin rising or falling.

That doesn't guarantee bitcoin can't go below $20k because we've seen how bitcoin moves. And if we observe, now bitcoin tends to move more wildly without being able to predict where it will move. But we can buy more bitcoins if the price goes below $20k again because that is a rare opportunity we may not see again. And in the meantime, $15k is bitcoin's lowest price this year and we can hope that the price will not touch that price again and only continue to rise to the next high.

My prediction is that bitcoin bottomed last year, and this year, we will have a gradual recovery in preparation for the halving event that will take place next year. This year bitcoin will still go up and down after that, but bitcoin won't be able to drop below $20k again, that's what I'm thinking. So those who haven't bought bitcoin yet, it's best to buy now, don't wait for bitcoin to bottom to start buying.

I think Bitcoin is still in the local bottom. Its price now does not correspond to the moving average. This is due to the shock of the events of last February, the collapse of the stock exchange. Surprisingly, he recovered a little, because there was no really positive news. Apparently people calm down, and negative moods subside. Further growth is possible, because cryptocurrencies used to often grow in price due to spring. It's not for nothing that there is an expression Crypto Spring.

There's that Soloway guy who I saw quoted on Coindesk. To be honest, I have no idea why they think he's credible. After all, he's just one out of hundreds of traders who make their predictions public.
Anyway, after FTX crash he kept talking about 10k bitcoin and although months have passed he's still stuck in that prediction. According to him everything is a fakeout and we're still going to 10k. That reminds me of Tone Vays in 2019 who kept calling for 1k.


I suspect it was because like me they were surprised by sub 20k. Since the beginning of 2022 I was sure the worst case scenario was going to be 20k, maybe a wick below to 19k, but FTX panic made us fall below that and most traders got scared of it. THey thought that since it's the first time bitcoin fell so low the cucle-based TA is wrong and we're going lower. They failed to see that this wasn't a natural drop.

When prices fell below 20,000, it was surprising to many people or most of us did not expect it, so the long stay in that range was a reason to think that we might go back to less than 10,000 dollars.
This did not happen, and therefore the chance of us returning again to that range is diminishing as long as the period continues to stay above that level for a long time.

 $21,000 will be our need long support range

Although the price was dropping for last few days, I think we are yet to see a drop again from this point, and I don't feel like we are at the total bottom at the moment. The $20k range would be the actual bottom in my opinion. If the price breaks up the resistance and rallies up from here, then it probably will become the bottom, but to me, I still feel it is yet to see a decline from this point and then we might see some positive price action towards $30 or even a little higher within the next couple of months.

If we do speak about bottom then there's no way that we could able to point out those numbers because this market is really that unpredictable.There's no way that we could make out some conclusive approach.

It is really just that people do mold up those numbers just because of those technical indicators on which it isnt really that bad since we are applying out some analysis rather than on having pure guess at all.

This is why if you are going for long term then it wont really be that much of an issue but if you are making some short trades then it would be an another story.
There's no way that we could able to predict on whats ahead.

It is, the bottom is in and it's gone. We were much lower than the current price, we were at 16k, maybe in some situations even lower than that somewhere, and we reached above 24k price already. Which means that bottom is far away enough to consider it gone now.

I know people will try to make sure that it's not really "gone" because they fear what may happen but it's really not a big problem for me to think that the only direction that we will go is up. Maybe not right away, maybe it will have a small decrease here and there, but it's basically above bottom price from here on out, it will not be there at all, it will be quite different for sure.

Even if we use technical analysis, we can't find an exact answer to whether the bottom has been reached or not. There is no way to know it convincingly, we just speculate about it. However, considering the current price and the BTC halving in the next year, I am very sure that the bottom was reached in 2022. 2023 is the second year of the bearish season and the price improvement looks better in early 2023, so we can assume that we won't experience the same decrease as in 2022. 2023 should be a time for a better season for Bitcoin and altcoins, it is a year before we have a bullish season in 2024. This year is almost the same as in 2019, a year before BTC halving in 2020.

If there is a visible change then that would be the market cap. It's growing huge because of the continuous adoption that Bitcoin is getting while as for the market cycle, it is still the same. There is still a bear and bull seasons. This will never be changed anymore because both of these cycles has their own roles.

It's true that there is a difference on how a hodler respond to a crash because a hodler can never remain to be a newbie but once they get more experienced they won't be scared anymore about the drops. Instead of panic selling at the dip, they will now use this opportunity to bag more coins. With that said, a bull run is now possible even after the halving event.

To be fair most of the times when we see someone making an outrageous speculation about big drops or even big rises, they don't actually believe it themselves nor do they wait for it. They are merely stating their hopes and dreams. For example someone who panic sold their bitcoins below $20k resistance and have been setting up buy orders at $10k is not going to accept the fact that price is now above $20k and their buy orders are never going to be filled...

I am not saying technical analysis is useless, but actually, for the crypto market, relying on technical analysis will not be as effective as the forex market. Aside from the volatility-generating black swan events, crypto is still a manipulated market, so TA doesn't work. What we are seeing is also what market makers see, so they will find a way to turn things upside down and do what works for them.
And one more thing I see is that bitcoin is always going against the crowd, when people believe bitcoin will not be able to fall any further, bitcoin keeps plunging, creating more panic in the market.

There will always be those who will think that the price of BTC is too high, and I don't think it's realistic to expect that to change - the only thing that changes are the numbers. When Bitcoin first touched $10 000 some thought it was only a matter of time before it would drop below $1000, and we know that never happened. Now some people are dreaming about $10k, and all they got is $15k+, and I believe that they are quite nervous lately, considering that things are not going the way they imagined.

FUD is no longer as effective as before, because over time people learn not to react to everything they see in the media, although it is always easy to convince beginners of almost anything, especially those who get information exclusively through social networks that are full of "experts".

Bitcoin just fell last year by 15k$ plus because of the scandals that happened in FTX, it cannot be denied that the market was affected and it was followed by other FUD-known cryptos in this industry.

    It's good that when 2023 entered, bitcoin quickly recovered somehow, and until now, although the value is slowly rising, the important thing is that it is increasing, even if it goes down, but it's not that low because it's going up again. Maybe it will go down, but for sure it won't go below 23k$ in the month of March, I just think so.

After many years of watching the markets I've learned that it's impossible to tell because from time to time we have so called black swan events. An exchange bankruptcy is one of those events and it drags the price down despite TA and cycles. A positive thing in all of this is the price goes back to the mean soon after such event. I remember when they busted Ross and the news came out the price dropped 10% in a day. It was a good example of such instant trigger. If we were at the bottom of the bear market when the news came out, we'd have a lower low, despite TA saying otherwise.

That said, the bottom should be in. Those guys who still wait for 10k to buy bitcoin are tools IMO. They're spreading FUD hoping that people will react to their bullshit.

It is true that there is no exact answer to this type of question, my prediction is that we have bottomed out this bear season. I don't think we've made it out of the bear season yet; although the market will correct this year, it will not fall too deep below $17k again. Those that didn't buy last year and are still waiting for a bottom to buy bitcoin should probably regret their decision and change their plans now, if not more regrets should be felt.

We can only speculate and only for short term that can be changed in the future.
Let's just say that there is no reason to see any more drops at this point and there are more reasons to see price continuing to rise up higher from this level.

We also have a better confidence in the market considering that things that previous affected bitcoin negatively are not having the same effects. For example over the past couple of weeks the US stock market has been dumping but bitcoin price has been going up. This means the panic seller newbies who tend to panic sell each time US stock market crashes are either out completely or they have finally learned that they should buy bitcoin when that market crashes not sell it.

One thing to point out is that the market dynamics of Bitcoin has been changing over the years. While market cycles still operate fairly similarly, there is a difference in how far we drop and the response from holders to crashes. This means that we cannot put off the possibility of a bull run to beyond the halving; it's very possible the price starts appreciating before then and tops out after the event.

Also, there doesn't have to be another drop leading up to a bull run.
I expect that the bottom is in and we would have more sideways movement before a spike.

The bottom could be in already. That the halving is still more than 12 months away doesn't mean the price is expected to stay this low. It is even possible Bitcoin would reach $40,000 or $50,000 before the halving and would fall down once again to our current price right now or even higher before finally bouncing back, pricing in the halving, and create another ATH.

This may not be the start of the stronger bull run. That is reserved after the halving, but this could be a weaker bull run but enough to hit $40,000 and above.

Bottom is a process not an event.   We can spike down and within 24hr most will guess that was the bottom price or we could take far longer to confirm multiple times a set of prices that becomes more like a basin then an exact spot where the price was lowest.    I think its fair to guess we are in the process of confirming 20k or nearby is a low that will set for this year and likely in future we will not trade this low again but it cant be said for absolute sure.  Depends possibly how extreme the news gets, if Euro value dips or Yen it raises USD greatly and that knocks onto us.

Just for my opinion, I'd say that it is in already. We're getting close to the season of halving again and that's why every after the latest bull run, comes next with a great bear market and that was for last year.

It's why bitcoin is just playing around from $23k-$25k and the lowest that we've seen at this point was $16k. Many are still speculating about $10k-$13k and that's for them to decide if they think that bitcoin will reach that certain low but for me, I don't think that we'll see those points again.

This is just IMHO but as usual, this is a volatile market and anything for its price has the possibility.

All of those questions cant really be answered it out because bull run could happen neither before or after the halving event which no one really knows on what would happen.Bottom price? People do have that lots

of talks about 10-12k price which they are really that tending to catch it up.It might a little bit too far off if we do base up on the current price but we know that possibilities are really there.Now the price is struggling to break that 25k roof that we do have but i could see that it would be breakthrough on this year 2023.Yes, its too early for us to deal up with the current price and see some bull run.
For me its not bad to place up yourself yet this could really be a possible bottom.

On technical analysis i haven't seen really convincing confirmation, but in terms of how the market and atmosphere feels like for someone who has experienced 3 big bear runs and 2 and big bull runs. This definitely feels like the bottom is in. It's nothing specific or technical. It's a combination of things that feel so familiar.

Fundamentals say bottom should be in since 19 000 we reached in September. The FTX crash was an exceptional move like the 2019 covid crash.

Technicals say bottom is in. We had a golden cross which doesn't have to mean a rally but it usually means the worst is over. While it doesn't say what the price will be in the coming months it definitely says the tide is turning into a much less bearish.

Timeline also shows we're very close to a bull market if not already in it because we've been in the bear market since November of last year so 16 months in. It's more than enough to make all people who were in over their heads to sell and exit and those who are left are hardened holders and newbies who bought sub 20 000.

forget about the market price(retail market) for one minute

the look at the whole sale market of the cheapest methods to acquire coin
mostly this is the most efficient mining costs

q4 2022 had a $15k bottomline cheapest wholesale(most efficient mining) cost

since then mining hash rate has gone up meaning not only is the market price tested that bottom. the actual costs have since gone up which also gives stronger support
to cause the market to not test that previous bottom. but if it does dip again to test a newer raised bottom slightly above $15k

no one wants to sell at a loss and anyone that has intended to sell at $16k has done so.

anyway here is some math

based on 260exa hash average for q4 of 2022
gave a ~$7.5k hardware cost
  - 260exa / 191thash =1361257 asics
     a $3.63k asic with a 2 year life cycle = $4938638743.46 for 2 years (105000 blocks)
     $4.94b / 105000 blocks = 47034.66 a block
     47034.66 a block /6.25 = 7525.54 per btc hardware

gave $7.5k electric
  - 1361257 * $0.21 (5.2kwh at $0.04 is 0.208) = $283141.46 electric an hour
    = 283141.46 /6 /6.25 = 7550.44 per btc
totalling $15k mining cost for efficient hardware and low electric rate

NOTE
if average hashrate was say:
300exa = hardware 8685.71 + electric 8712.04 = 17397.75

meaning if a LENGTHY period of mining stabilises around 300exa
then the efficient mining cost bottom is going to be 17.4k
thus strengthening the bottom where no one wants to sell below "cheapest mining"

if we then look at the hashrate. we are seeing hasrate go over 300eca meaning the lengthy period average of the 2022 estimate is increasing thus going above last periods $15k and getting closer to the presumed average i just mentioned

this means chances of crashing again to near $15k is alot less chance then the first time it did

enjoy

According to @ImThour #Bitcoin Bottom was at $15,476, so yes you can say bottom is in.

His way is to compare Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022 you can read it ---> Bye Bye Bear Market



Whether you believe the analyzes or not, but we need a strong event to return to 15K, not to mention breaking the bottom to a lower bottom, which seems that it will not happen in the normal situation.
So without an exceptional event, we can say that we have reached the bottom.

I think the bottom is very much in, but that price could now correct down to $20K based on today's price action. For the time being, it looks like price has failed to break $25K and has been rejected on Weekly time-frame from this level for second consecutive week. There is a lot of support around $20K however which I believe will hold and will be the real test of whether the bottom is in or not if it gets there.

Personally I'm not concerned about the double top scenario at $25K that is currently playing out, as long as a higher low is formed around the $20K levels which would confirm price remains bullish.

The OP actually practices DCA, although he is concerned about his average price, which of course increases as the price of BTC goes up. The thing is that some people would very much like to extend the bear market because they want to accumulate more at lower prices, but from what we see now, it seems that we have already touched the absolute bottom.

Waiting for another crash is always an option, but I wonder how realistic it is after all the negative things that happened last year? I'm not saying that something bad can't happen again, but realistically speaking, we are on the road to recovery, not only when it comes to Bitcoin, but also the global markets.

No one knows when the bottom is in but we have been trying to beat the 25000 resistance for a few weeks and we finally did it but a small correction occurred. We still need to beat that resistance again in the next week if we want to see higher numbers for March. The btc community is very positive atm and I think we will do it but no one knows when the bottom or the tops are in and it is speculation and a little risk taking if you have invested into btc. My target number is a long time away so I am not too concerned about beating the resistance this week and I think increasing gradually will be better overall.

My take on that is that it doesn't have to be another crash to see a true bull run in Bitcoin, because the next Bitcoin halving does come on its own when the time comes and the upside doesn't necessarily have to start at the bottom. But if indeed Bitcoin will experience an increase in price due to being driven by more buying volume this year, I don't think there will be another crash for Bitcoin this year although it cannot be accurately confirmed for Bitcoin this year either.

It all still always depends on the amount of demand and supply that often occurs in the market because increases and decreases cannot be regulated by our own minds. But it can happen through changes in demand and supply in the market, so expect that there will be more demand for Bitcoin so that the increase can occur more quickly this year.

Two answers maybe need to consider and here are my takes.

Maybe yes since bitcoin is showing good signs of recovery so maybe at this time we might see a continuous slow progress until we see the pump like those crazy ones the same happen on the past.

Also maybe not since not all the time we see the bullish trend continue to exist and provably after some sort of pump happen the pull back came so you need to be more careful on your expectation especially when you decide to buy and the market dump since this is the start of how people lose their money. So better take precautions and always careful on decisions especially on buying on what price you like.

First of all this should be in Speculation board and also you should rather merge the both posts together.
The bitcoin recovery is moving on smoothly but we can’t be all optimistic, because there are economical factors that still affects it. Should there be recession talks again it would affect it. But the most important thing to note is that any saga like the FTX could be disastrous like the late November crash, possibly any top exchange been hacked or something of such.

Visit the speculation board and to read about these. There multiples of similar threads there

If what that happened last time did not happen this time, I am not expecting bitcoin to go below $17000 to $20000, because it was the FTX FUD that plunged bitcoin to $15500.

But for anyone that do not have the mind to sell bitcoin soon but waiting for months or years before selling, the person can buy now or start DCA which is better.

I know that none of us know for sure but I am curious to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

We have had a good start to the year but I expect at least one more crash as I feel it is far too early for the bull run to start considering the Bitcoin halving is still over 12 months away.

Is the bottom in? If not how low can we realistically go before the start of the bull run?

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Just to add, I am going to go with yes the bottom is in.

I do think we will crash again however to similar levels just not as low as the low we saw on the 21st November last year.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]