Topic: Bitcoin long term linear trend (Read 6732 times)

Nope.

Good-bye thread.

Locked.

The network is no problem. If the need was there the core developers could start a fix within fix. The problem is that there is no real marketing.
Like any product you need to market it and that is exactly what is lacking at the moment.


Agree. people need to be sold on the idea that they should have some bitcoin in addition to their cash, debit card and credit cards and saving accounts.
There are two key benefits that mean everyone right down to the person who has just say $2000 in savings should turn 5% of their savings into bitcoin. First they have direct access to and control of their own money (the digital cash concept ) and second though bitcoin could crash in price it has the possiblity to earn more from that  5% of the $2000 savings than the other 90% in total ever will (the digital gold concept).

To encourage my friends and rellies to get interested I send their teenage kids $5 in bitcoin every so often as a private key. They then go ahead and learn about wallets etc so they can "use' the money or at least accumulate. people need to learn to use the bitcoin stuff (wallets, exchanges etc) so they see it as "familiar' as their bank account number at their local bank.
 

Right. A great product not exposed to potential users could just be forgotten until something better comes along. How many ads have we seen that promote bitcoin in anyway? How many news articles and PR campaigns have we seen showing bitcoin's benefits? Ask about bitcoin to a regular guy and he'll either scratch his head or return the question to you.

it does

in fact, it's not discussed enough.

I am amazed there is not more complaints and more importantly solutions to it.

months ago we were promised a block size increase, lightning and segwit and not even 1 of these 3 solutions is implemented yet even though they were supposed to be implemented BEFORE the halving.

Blocks have been full for way too long, and it's really making it impossible for bitcoin to grow until it is solved.

The network is no problem. If the need was there the core developers could start a fix within fix. The problem is that there is no real marketing.
Like any product you need to market it and that is exactly what is lacking at the moment.

I like this post ^_^

We ain't seen nothing yet

Block size debate does not have to invade every thread.

Stupidest thing I ever heard, "the network is no problem" Are you kidding me???

The need is there, we will be exceeding the network limit soon, and yet the core developers are too busy fapping to the sound of their voices to fix it. Marketing??? You gotta be kidding me!?! You're worried about marketing a broken product???

The network is no problem. If the need was there the core developers could start a fix within fix. The problem is that there is no real marketing.
Like any product you need to market it and that is exactly what is lacking at the moment.

This is exactly it. I explained Bitcoin to my brother the other day and he was like...it sounds like the transactions are too slow. When will Lightning Network be ready? I hadn't even gotten to block size or LN.

I read on a news show that people are waiting with money in their fist for whatever solution you think is the best. Though, they actually understand the difference between transactions and confirmations so you may want to do a bit of research on that one.

The big reason for the slow adoption of the bitcoin is that the transaction is too slow and the lighting network is not ready.

I think so. If the bitcoin block size in creased to 2MB within a year, the price will be at least $2000 next year.

I believe the bitcoin price will be $5000 to $10,000 in 2020. The $1600 price could be reached next year.

i think the prices are going to be even higher at that time, i would predict something like 10000 dollars per bitcoin because the price is going to be booming of all the demand

It's always the IF what messes up good predictions right?!
Furthermore it's not only the number of users which would help to increase the price.
Think about institutional money which could have an interest in Bitcoin as well for speculative or investment reasons.
From halving 2012 (price 12,16) to this year's halving (price 635) Bitcoin has grown an amazing 5122%!!!!
I mean if that isn't an argument to have a closer look at it then what right?!

Patience my friend. Patience. You must have patience. Patience is a virtue.

$1600 could be reached in 2017 or 2018. That is easy if the user of the bitcoin increase by 50% or more.

if you see lots of       
in a post, it usually means it is not to be taken too serioulsy.

Ah ok thanks for the explanation!
Cause I didn't see how such a rise would be a bad thing! ^^

i was joking. $1600 in 2020 would still beat every other asset class on the planet.

You find 1630 to be pessimistic? Oo

Well, I'd me more than happy with such a price!
Let's firstly hope that post halving won't be a panic dump :/

I certainly want it to rise faster, but keeping this chart in mind has helped me to hoard as many coins as possible at low prices.

elwar, since when did you turn to posting pessimistic fud 

ok, as a worst case scenario i let you have your point...

 

As the chart from 2014 shows the price at halving should be around $660.



Next halving the price should be $1630.

There is no long term linear trend.

Nice work Elwar, i just read this whole thread... interesting points.. and it's looking more and more like you're hunch is right...

IF we close out the year around $525 - i will have to send you a beer (in bitcoin of course!)

Updated the chart.

Looks like we're returning to the linear price. I look forward to the angle moving after the next halving.

I sure hope but not his year, maybe return to 350$ but that is max till next year I personally think that this wont be happening.

Updated the chart.

Looks like we were close to the linear price (between halvings) until the BitStamp crash.

I am confident it will return eventually.

The linear price should be around $350. Buy now while we are below the trend line.

It is not like you can just wait for it to come back down if it jumps up. If you bought at the trend line at $125 in October of 2013 you would have had to wait a year for it to return to normal with the price over $300.

It may hover below the trend line for a while too, but it will go back up. It's not like development of new Bitcoin companies and solutions is going to stop.

The exact opposite happens when we are in a bull market, human nature.

this is a non-sense. BTC have always changed is price more quickly!

I see bitcoin like a function strictly increasing, however, don't worry if price decrease in some time and then increase in other time, in long term price will rise.

the long downtrend comes from mining being centralised and thus dumping harder and thus becoming more centralised.

Miners holding the coin they mine is a thing of the past. Bitcoin is a cashcow for everybody to milk. People buying bitcoin miss the point.

The old longterm-charts say nothing because in the old days most what was mined was held. These days market has to eat all the new coins on a daily basis. I have no hope this can go over 500$ before the next halving.

Bitcoin looks like a scam these days. Altcoins are also full of scams. This whole crypto-thing died from greed. Most people have left already. Bitcoin is not the future, it is insignificant. People will not want to use it.
In economic troubled times we are better off to resort to gold and silver than using bitcoin. Just deal with it: the way it is right now it has no future.

Yes, though most people would consider 4 years as long term when it comes to Bitcoin.

You have described an exponential function..

I didn't read this thread when the OP first posted it, after all it was to-da-moon Elwar, so what could a bear like me find in it?
But now I read it and I think it makes sense to describe the base bitcoin (efficient market) price with a more-or-less linear function.
The speculative bubbles are on top of that and since they take a significant time to deflate, the linear base trend is difficult to spot.

Yep, especially not a linear one. Anyone can fit a linear function to a chart. It's still meaningless.

So I triple my money in 4 years? Could you spoon feed those of us who don't know how to use the formula and make a little chart with every month starting now (November 2014), until December 2019 or December 2020?

Thanks.

Yes, the formula changes each time due to the halving (which was pointed out that over the long term that means an exponential trend).

If you take the change from the first halving and apply the difference to the second then starting after the next halving it will be:
P = 20.25t
So, assuming $660 in August, 2016...by August 2017 the price will be over $900. This would put us over $1000/BTC by January 2018.

This is still low wont halving increase price.
With this there is almost no profit.

Maybe im wrong but with this formula i figure it out like that.

Clearly your chart was wrong for most of 2014. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

P = 13.5t + 12

t = months from November 2012

so...
2015 start: $363
2015 end:  $525

So the average: $444

Though I fully expect that when the ETF opens up the price will jump...but I believe over the long term, barring an economic disaster, the price will gravitate toward the linear price whether above or below.

Mr. Elwar, what's your chart and formula say for every month in 2015? Like, the average?

I would expect in 5 to 10 years for the dollar to crash hard which would throw all charts out the window.

Though its quite interesting, but I don't think any formula can predict the actual price, especially in the long run.

Uhm...you wrote:

so, for example, in 01/2015 we have:

t=1+12+12+1=26

P=13.5*26+12=363

and in 12/2015 t=37, so P=511?

too low. It doesn't convinct me.

Okay now you're just playing with me. This technology is too important to be ignored. Your projections wouldn't even attract a buyout by Facebook.

Woot! So, I took out a fiat bank loan payable in 60 months. In addition to that, I'm opening a game site. I should be able to make back a little bit more than enough to pay my monthly amortizations in a few weeks. By the time my loan is fully paid, I should have at least quadrupled it.

But in what alt to invest or to keep some amount of cash.
To play safe on some stable and trustworthy or to gamble a little and try to make bigger piece of cake in this picture.

Ah good because that leaves lots of room for alt coins to fill the current 400 trillion dollar global economy when the securities and shadow banking industries collapse.

At the linear formula's rate the price would be up about 50% in one year. Double in 2 years.

Most conservative investments expect to double in around 20 years.

No. Your linear formula would prevent it if it were actually the case. Imagine if cell phone production rate had stymied to your rate of production. We would still require a car to move them around and global society would not have facebook in their pocket. If bitcoin does not show growth as a store of value, nobody will value it to store their value.

And a linear formula would prevent this?

A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

i pick this answer

Bottom 200. More or less.
Will this be now like last year or just speculation.
Or will be just to buy for small BTC then sell it high.

Anything. Just as the high went far above the linear growth, the bottom could be far below.

What could be the bottom then?

The price is right on target:
P = 13.5t + 12

t = 24 months (as of tomorrow)

P = $336

Sure we are here but in no time we can be back up again.
But i dont think that it will be any time soon, I would like like all of you but it wont.

Need something big to happen so that price goes up again.
Dont you all agree.

So we can expect next jump when?
End of year or in beginning of next one.

Basically we can make price go up.

I had not thought of that. The linear rate will increase at each halving. But I think most people see an exponential increase of demand while I think over time it will be linear with small bursts as major developments take place.

Over time the affect of inflation will level out when block reward is replaced more by transaction fees as the reward for finding a block.

It looks linear because we are still here

I don't quite understand your argument.

Assuming there is (1) a distinct linear trend between block reward halvings and (2) these linear trends continue to get steeper after each halving, then the long-term trend will be exponential, not linear.

You could chop any exponential bubble chart into small pieces and draw a straight line through each of them. The complete chart will still be exponential. When talking of a long-term trend you should draw your trend lines on a single long-term chart. Then you'll notice that it doesn't look linear at all.

Maybe little less then 300 but in range above 200$ is maybe most realistic price in the moment.
But like everything price can be manipulated.

Yes, if inflation was not cut in half in 2012.

True linear price should be around $50-$100 right now.

There is usually a lot of speculation that the bitcoin price is exponential. While there are some instances of exponential price rise when there is a self fulfilling feedback loop of excitement over a price rise which brought us the $32, $266 and $1240 prices. If we step back and look over the long term you can see a linear price rise.


http://i61.tinypic.com/b3u4wx.png

I split it in two to show before and after the price halving (and to go from MtGox to BitStamp).


Old Pic http://i59.tinypic.com/2dtk4x.png
Older Pic: http://i60.tinypic.com/vertj.png

This would indicate that the true price should be around $500 (Dec. 2015) or so right now which would explain the recent uptrend from a long low price.


There are a few positives from a linear price rise. It is less volatile, it makes sense for a currency and it continues to trend up.

There is also a slight upward rise in the rate of price increase at the halving, which would indicate that in 2016 the rate will tick up a little more at the next halving.

While an exponential rise is exciting and great if you get out at the top, a linear price rise is good in the long term.

The formula would be close to this:
P = 13.5t + 12
where t = months since November 2012

Before the halving the rate was closer to:
P = .3t + 1
t being months from February 2010

With the formula after the next halving:
P = 20.25t + 660
t being months from July 2016

Edit:
This actually does make the price exponential over time, the charts are showing the linear trend between halvings.