Topic: Bitcoin market backing (Read 1606 times)

Current numbers (02.11.2013):
Market capitalization: 1,834,449,754 EUR
Number of Bitmit auctions:    13866  (!??)
number of results for google search with 'Bitcoin':     About 39,800,000 results


(For the moderator: There is a second thread on the same topic: Re-visit the question: What is bitcoin's value backed by?)

The market price is very dynamic, if suddenly there is only seller, no buyers, the coin price might drop to zero. It is more important to evaluate the constant daily purchase demand on the exchanges, who are the purchaser of bitcoin every day?

I think long term wise it will be decided by those who want to save a little bit in bitcoin each month and hold it for a long period (10-20 years like in a pension saving account)

Under an estimation of 10,000 coin supply per day (including previous investors sell of 10% of their holding per year), if every day there is 10,000 people who spend $100 in bitcoin, then the exchange rate will be steadily above $100

World's population growth is about 1% per year, about 190,000 person were added every day. If only 1% of those people (1900) spend $100 in bitcoin, then bitcoin price will at least above $19

However, for most of the bitcoin investors, they won't just spend $100 once in their life, they might spend $100 on bitcoin every month, that will raise the price by 12x and reach a level of $228. If they do this for 10 years, then price will be at $2280. If 10% of people do this, then price will be $22800

So if bitcoin successfully established as a medium of long term saving, the lower bond of the exchange rate will be at least several thousand dollars

I like this. The numbers could be off, but the basic idea is that the value of bitcoin is the reservation demand from the users. This is the right way to think.

21 million coins, and most of them are saved, so about 2 million coins out there, if there is 2 million people willing to buy 1 coin per person, and each of them spend $100, the exchange rate will be backed above $100

There are about 200K users maybe, so now each person should be willing to buy 10 coin with $1000 to keep the exchange rate above $100

Number of sites using bitpay is a useful metric. You can't measure this yourself but they do release the data periodically. For instance they just reached 10k bitcoin accepting merchants this month: http://blog.bitpay.com/

Probably because they were up previously due to media coverage, and that effect has worn off.

I did see a story on Fox News yesterday though about Bitcoin, so it might spike back up.

Current numbers:
Market capitalization: 1,138,258,625 EUR  (+)
Number of Bitmit auctions:    13866 (+)
number of results for google search with 'Bitcoin':     About 26,600,000 results (-)


It is questionable why the number of hits in google is going down ??

Current numbers:
Market capitalization: 1,038,600,019 EUR
Number of Bitmit auctions:    12271  (!??)
number of results for google search with 'Bitcoin':     About 27,200,000 results


As expected the market capitalization is grown by 23% and also the google hit count by 4%.

Interestingly the number of Bitmit auctions is exactly the same as two weeks ago. This may be a sign that Bitmit is not very accepted as a trading platform. But if Bitmit as one of the best elaborated and widely available trading platforms accepting Bitcoin payments is not accepted which non speculation market will accept Bitcoin?

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A small note on the thread title as 'market backing' - for sure the currency itself needs no direct backing by anything else than the currency user trust. But that is exactly the critical point. Does Bitcoin really move into a widely accepted payment and exchange vehicle? Or is it more or less a attractor for speculators. I am looking for a proof for Bitcoin being widely accepted as payment method.

Two interesting links provide the basic BTC statistics:

1. http://www.quandl.com/markets/bitcoin

and not to forget:

2. https://blockchain.info/de/charts

I will follow the Bitmit.net market ...

or http://coinmarketcap.com/
in my opinion it is very hard to measure it precisely. And I would say, perhaps it cannot be done exactly on last penny or cent.
People tend to think that when they name and describe world around them they will understand it better they will uncover the mystery...
Sure it is usefull to measure market backing of BTC but for different people it would have different meaning.
For example for me, when I dont have many bitcoins, it is only waste of time, to be frank.
I am intersted in cryptocurrencies, I love this ideas and of course, I hope that my investment will grow in value
(I think it is also (at least theoretically for sure) possible that general wealth of cryptocoins enviroment would grow and rise almost for everybody but "nobody hurts" - on the contrary of forex where earnings of winners are from loss of the unsuccesfull 99,9 % rest).
So basically I am intersted in core ideas and I intend to hold coins for long time. And what I could do with precise market backing of BTC? to be frank, I dont care if it is  0.1 or 1 or 2 or 3 billions. I care about my little investment and use my common sense.
I am also sure, if it could be measured somehow, than it would make people tempt to influence somehow this number since they could earn some quick money on it.
Because I think maybe only 10% of bitcoin are traded and the rest is stashed in computers. so BTC Market Capitalization of $ 1.26 bln could only mean 10% of the sum or even less. And some btc whale with pile of bitcoins could easily move the threshold of $ 1.26 bln according their needs up and down.
However I watch different opportunities and (currently) I prefer to hold other coins because they grow much more.

At one time, the Trade page on the Wiki was a good metric.  But it is no longer editable, so it's fairly worthless now.

Market capitalization: 843,516,825 EUR
Number of Bitmit auctions:    12271
number of results for google search with 'Bitcoin':     About 26,100,000 results

I am looking for a real measurement for the market backing of Bitcoin.

For sure the pure market capitalization listed on http://bitcoincharts.com/ is one measurement: 840,361,721 EUR for today


Further candidates which are really measurable:

• number of auctions in Bitmit (today 11920)
• number of results for google search with 'Bitcoin' (http://bit.ly/1bZhdSL - today About 27,000,000 results)

Is there anything else ?