Bitcoin market is like other markets, has its cycle. Focus on its cycle!

Kelward

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Quote from: Porfirii on December 18, 2023, 10:39:50 AM

And, although that is true and its the fundamental belief of HODLers, nothing guarantees that the cycles will always surpass the previous ones. The info in the OP is great to understand how the economy evolves in cycles (like many other things related to human beings or nature) but one shouldn't take for granted that the fact it always worked means that it will keep working forever.

Don't take me wrong, I'm a proud hodler myself, but I'm very aware of the risks so, if I lost all my BTC because of an unexpected event like a dump not followed by a recovery, I wouldn't be ruined. That's what we mean by "...only the amount you can afford to lose".

And if anyone tells you otherwise, he lies. tranthidung is a great poster and didn't forget to add the warning: "but it can change in the future".

BTW, congratulations for the OP.

In other words what you're saying is that we shouldn't use past halving cycles to be a guarantee that the next one will follow the same trend as them. In that case I can reason with your idealogy, because the cryptocurrency market is influenced by current crypto news and we can have an occurrence that might change the naretive of previous cycles. It is good to know the pertan of previous cycles as a guide to predict the outcome of the incoming one, but the point is that we can not depend on the precedents to make an accurate prediction of what will happen after the next halving. But one fact is clear that with the occurrence of Bitcoin being cut in half during halving, that creates scarcity, bull run will always follow, only we wouldn't know how massive and profitable it'll be.

Zaguru12

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Quote from: Thy7ace on December 18, 2023, 10:23:24 AM

So what you're trying to say is that no matter the dumb Btc undergoes. The pump percentage will always dominate the dumb, I'm still finding hard to understand the cycle thing.

Yes the bullish period are longer than the bearish period and the percentage increase is always higher. The fall of bitcoin to around $15k last year, and raise of it throughout this with the price equaling the starting the price of 2022 ($46k) is an evidence that bitcoin will always bounce back base on past cycles that happened.

Quote from: sheenshane on December 18, 2023, 06:27:37 PM

Holding long term is the best idea to wait for a better result after the next cycle of the Bitcoin price pump but the problem is there's no time frame when you will get your profit and this usually might other facing of.

I have come to the understanding that time frame shouldn’t be the benchmark of when to take profit, but rather it should be price target. You can set a price target as to when you will have made profit and then you take your profit when this target is reached, this eliminates the dependence on time and panic should this time arrive and the profit expectations isn’t met yet

sheenshane

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It's a good graph comparison, thank you for providing this.
It shows always that the market always repeats itself.

Holding long term is the best idea to wait for a better result after the next cycle of the Bitcoin price pump but the problem is there's no time frame when you will get your profit and this usually might other facing of. Dont let yourselves be drawn to the daily hustle of trading, just wait for this cycle and make a profit.

This reminds newbies of the importance of taking a long-term perspective rather than risking their assets daily on trading.

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Quote from: Thy7ace on December 18, 2023, 10:23:24 AM

So what you're trying to say is that no matter the dumb Btc undergoes. The pump percentage will always dominate the dumb, I'm still finding hard to understand the cycle thing.

First point to note is that last events are not always indicative of future actions. There's no guarantee on what will happen during the next cycle and the one after that and ten or twenty more down the road, the only thing that's certain is the protocol.

Cycles are pretty much easy to understand and need not be complicated;

• Halving creates scarcity,
• This scarcity reduces supply against demand, increasing the price,
• The Price increase causes Fomo and even more demand,
• This continues till the price hits a ceiling and needs to undergo a correction,
• Investors panic sell to avoid losing out,
• This causes fud and the market continues to tank considerably till we hit the support,
• and repeat...

In-between these periods the price goes up and down based on so many other factors.

Doan9269

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Quote from: tranthidung on December 18, 2023, 09:04:53 AM

Bitcoin market has its cycle and so far, it relates to Bitcoin halving which was set to be triggered after every 210,000 blocks. During each cycle, there are bearish and bullish years and many news will appear in each cycle.

We have to understand the target to each of the bitcoin circles we have, we must know wether it's appropriate time to accumulate, distribute or engage on other phases base on what the time says on what we are planning to do, that is why we have the chart, the history and other helpful resources that can help us track the right stage we are, we could have a strategic speculation as well while maintaining a focus on the pump or dump market season of bitcoin, the market price must be put into consideration here and we can compare them all with previous years to know what's ahead or to be expected.

Porfirii

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And, although that is true and its the fundamental belief of HODLers, nothing guarantees that the cycles will always surpass the previous ones. The info in the OP is great to understand how the economy evolves in cycles (like many other things related to human beings or nature) but one shouldn't take for granted that the fact it always worked means that it will keep working forever.

Don't take me wrong, I'm a proud hodler myself, but I'm very aware of the risks so, if I lost all my BTC because of an unexpected event like a dump not followed by a recovery, I wouldn't be ruined. That's what we mean by "...only the amount you can afford to lose".

And if anyone tells you otherwise, he lies. tranthidung is a great poster and didn't forget to add the warning: "but it can change in the future".

BTW, congratulations for the OP.

Thy7ace

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Wow this really nice!!
I'm still trying to get it. So base on the image you've provided the bullish percentage is always more than that of the bearish? So what you're trying to say is that no matter the dumb Btc undergoes. The pump percentage will always dominate the dumb, I'm still finding hard to understand the cycle thing.

Quote

say it is beautiful because if you miss opportunities to enter the market, miss chances to take profit in one cycle, you will not have to wait too long to get other opportunities in a new cycle.

But I literally get this one. That if any one miss the present bullish run it won't be quite long before another will take place.
Think this have just help in boosting my confidence more
Wow Bitcoin is indeed beautiful and amazing too.

tranthidung

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Bitcoin market has its cycle and so far, it relates to Bitcoin halving which was set to be triggered after every 210,000 blocks. During each cycle, there are bearish and bullish years and many news will appear in each cycle.

You can see, read, hear many news in every four years and when you actually experience in the market, with news at the time it occurs, you probably think it is very important, very positive or negative, but after like one, two or three years, you look back and see those news, events are not too much important.

The beauty of Bitcoin market, but it can be changed in future, is its cycle is shorter than other markets like stocks, real estates, gold that can have 8 years, 10 years cycle or even longer.

I say it is beautiful because if you miss opportunities to enter the market, miss chances to take profit in one cycle, you will not have to wait too long to get other opportunities in a new cycle.

If you are still doubtful about market cycles and still want to engage in the market daily, with trading, reading news, putting yourself into uncertain mood, this documents and the graphics will enlighten you. I hope you will broaden your mindset and have better strategy for your investment.

History of US. bear and bull market with S&P 500 index from 1926 to 2019.

Gold cycle
A sixteen-year gold cycle?

Real estate cycle
The Real Estate cycle (and How to find the next investment)

Bitcoin market cycles

Topic: Bitcoin market is like other markets, has its cycle. Focus on its cycle! (Read 116 times)