Topic: Bitcoin market trend analysis- so far the most reliable through 2-month test (Read 7338 times)

OP has 15 years experience in financial markets and is the founder of a budding futures exchange in HK? Can we get some updates to this? What does Zhurong think of the current markets? Also, I see Coinbase looking for a derivatives market. Would be nice to get his comments here.

now, when will we breach 115, is the question. Hopefully it is before another bear market can be confirmed

 

Indeed.

There has been significant resistance above 110, until someone performs the daring move to 114 - 115, which is still possible.
After that, either we drop, or we climb to 130 and beyond (resistance is futile).

Ok, took a few days, but we're here now.

110 came true.

Good job I guess !

Where to now?

nice call

So you maintain a 110 target? Hmmm....

I could see it

Hi guys,

The current trend is much like the former one. It’s hard to reverse to drop since the price rises from $65 to $104 which is a strong trend. We still need to confirm the upside resistance. Let’s say it is just fixing the rise and there will be a sprint to decide whether long or short is predominant. It’s high-risk area at/above $110. (GMT+8)

Thanks.

possible rise to $110 over the next couple of days that my prediction and who am i a nobody that is all

Sorry, will update tomorrow.

going down...

no more predictions?

They told you in other thread... the buyer ALREADY bought SatoshiDice , and the people will be getting BTC which then can be dropped into the market.

wow huge buyings...

Could it be related to the buyout? maybe the buyer/s of SatoshiDice started buying BTC (Batch #1 from 135,000) ?

yeah, the post is indeed delayed about 3-4 hours.
will improve this.
thanks for your reminding. appreciated.

It was a big mistake, but nobody can be always right. Any analysis is welcome.
A problem is maybe a matter of timing, it's short term prediction and the analysis seems to be posted half a day after the forecast. With short term prediction, things can evolve fast. When you posted the last analysis, the price was already falling (making the analysis obsolete).

yeah, we noticed the news yesterday.
thanks Ares.
it's not easy to earn complete trust and he's just do what he thinks is right.
take care.

Hi there,
most members on our platform do very short term investment and we carry weekly settlement.
i know he's wrong recently.
but most do make money following his forecast.
i'm not defending him, just wanna say maybe we should see this in the long run?

thanks.

hi,
We know that the trend analysis isn't going well.
What we want to say is that Mr. Zhu is trying his best to share his views here and hope this can be a little bit help for you.
And we also know that he cannot be 100% right for the short-term forecast all the time.
We really appreciate you guys spend time reading this and some might have followed this closely.
Yet, you need to think carefully before invest.
We hope people can make money and be happy.
If this caused inconvenience, we're sorry.

the following is from yesterday:

The short-term trend is similar to earlier drop. The trend won’t reverse immediately because of abrupt drop in the uptrend and it needs time to be confirmed. Currently, the price falls too much and we may decide direction after further consolidation. The long-term trend is still dropping slowly downwards. For medium-long term, we may pay attention to price above or under 100$.

We wanna remind our friends that his forecast is aiming short-term trend and one day in advance at most.
So, you still need to decide yourself and just take this as a reference.

Sincerely,
796 Exchange

The problem is that so far he has been wrong much more often than right.

Nobody saw the sale of Satoshi Dice coming which triggered the short fall. I can't believe people are holding that against him.

He cannot be always right.
The original intention to creating this post is to give his view and Bitcoiners may take this as a reference.
You still need to think carefully when you're operating.
And he's just forecasting short-term trend(one day in advance at most).
We're sorry if you follow closely to his forecast and make a loss.

kind regards,

bitcoin prices right now are killing me guess i'll just hold out and hope for a rise

Ok that 110-115 prediction went bonkers.

What is your next prediction?

Damn!

I think it is related to this :

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-company-acquisitions-begin-gambling-site-satoshidice-sells-for-11-5m-126315-btc/

you and everyone else holding and not buying 

Hopefully everyone does not panic and sell again.  I was hoping it would get up to $110.

Yea, this drop was.... but who knows maybe the day is still young

Predict a rise to 110 and instead having a fall to 80s, I don't know if we can call it a "nice post"... neither "the most reliable analysis" 

Quoting:  'The upside target area is $110-$115'.
Really? Tell this to the dancing bears! 

Ok, let's follow this for some time and see where it goes.

Thanks.

the update on July 16th is still applied.

very nice post

Hi guys,
You may refer to yesterday's update.
Thanks.

Today's update:(GMT+8)

From the 4-hour chart, it reveals just like the update from 2 days ago. The strong correction stays at a relatively higher price area. Currently the correction approaches $100 from hour chart. And buy strength is stronger. It will break out to upside any time if correction continues to be at 100$. The upside target area is $110-$115.

Thanks!

Today's update:(GMT+8)

Currently, the correction stays at a higher price. It’s still market correction following the price rise. We may continue to pay attention to the strong and weak key price of $95. We predict that the correction will be around $95 for a little bit long time. It may touch $100-$110 area upwards if the price rises to 95$ and stands stable. Downward short-term support is 90$.

Thanks!

Today's update:(GMT+8)

We could see a strong bounce and there’s chance of expanding space. The correction stays in strong area at night and there shows a sign of rally. The upside resistance area is $95-$100. It’s preferable to short the market in batches. There is over $10 space for operation as to my advice, even if unexpected trend appears, there’s 5$ space at least. I know this may miss lots of opportunities, but it’s important for analysis with conservatism and accuracy.

Thanks!

Today's update: (GMT+8)

A strong rally appeared this morning. The correction was strong yesterday evening and the price got recovered promptly and the correction stayed in the higher area after slump. For short term, there will be correction at around 85$. We would advise sell at over 90$ in batches if you want short sell.

Thanks!

today's update: (GMT+8)

From the chart we may see fix trend continues after slump. We predict regular correction at relatively low area and wait for new long/short strength cohesion. On the short term, correction shows strong from 4-hour chart and there’s chance for upward resistance test, but the whole space won’t be too much. We may short sell around 85$ in batches and buy long around 70$ in batches.

Thanks!

Today’s similar to yesterday’s update. (GMT+8)

The correction shall be area $70-$80. We may decide buy or sell after testing long/short strength. We would advise short the market around $85 for short term. What worth mentioning here is that there’s no enough space within area $70-$80. We would not give advice if there’s no more than 10$ volatility space. However, the space for short sell will be relatively large if the price unexpectedly rises to around 85$.

Thanks!

Today's update:(GMT+8)

We see over drop bounces after long power temporarily disappeared. Upward resistance area is around 80$. From the 4-hour chart, long strength temporarily fails after continuous drop recently. A wave of bounce comes out after standing at the short term average price line. Subsequent correction should be 70$-80$. We may decide buy or sell after testing the long and short strength. We would advise short sell when approaching 85$ for short term.

Thanks!

Sorry, late for today's update: (GMT+8)

It shows no bottom sign from the chart. The volume isn’t enlarged and no long downlead appears. From 1-hour chart, there is bounces demand, but meets heavy upward pressure. We may possibly enter into another fall in relay process if no strong buy motivates. We may continue to observe whether it will strengthen. If corrections stays in the 70$ weak area, there will be breakout. We may take to short term buy long around 55$ if another slump emerges.

Thanks!

What's your problem?
I had explained that Mr. Zhu is just trying to share with more Bitcoiners.
And I had also explained that he doesn't do Bitcoin investment in his own platform.
That's just because he doesn't want other investors to think that he's manipulating for his own platform.
Then it won't be fair to other users.
He does respect fairness.
He, himself, does investment on MTGOX, BTTC and some other platforms.
He has more than 15 years in financial investment and is acute to the market movements.
Is there anything wrong that he's willing to offer some advice to other investors and most had indeed taken profit?
Some people may take his advice, some may not.
It's not that we avoid your question, it's weekend.

Bitcoin market outlook:(GMT+8)

The price has gone through strong drop recently and falled to 70$ this morning. There is a sign of accelerating steady downside. Though the price is near the previous lows, bottom fishing fund inflow is still weak from the volume. We may fear steady down most for there’s no large trading.

Thanks.

It was already obvious the sole reason he's here is to build up confidence and sell into noobs. You can tell he was a manipulator from the answer to my third question. You just gotta be nice to 'em and have them think they can lead you on, and wait to see what they spill in between the lines. In this case, he totally avoided the question. Without even close to a satisfactory answer, minding language barriers of course, you know he's just trying to deflect from his agenda. The next 3 replies from him with the "thank you 's" is like the tell-all sign.

also, the fact we're on the speculation board doesn't help

I'm sorry, but this looks very suspect. You have a gross conflict of interest.

You've posted this topic in 3 places across the forum. It's either for marketing, or a confidence trick. In my opinion there is a high chance it is a con.

First of all, there is a reason that I, Vokain, and others in your other threads have raised our concerns. It is very improper to see the boss of a "futures exchange" predict the price.

Currently your predictions are in line with general market expectations, and so it is easy to attempt to win over confidence this way.

However you have a *lot* of deposited BTC at your disposal. At any point in the future, you can use this to move MTGox against your predictions and force-liquidate any big players. The part that really sucks is that you could use people's own BTC to bet against them. I really don't like the look of this one bit.

Any futures site could do this, but there are two factors that make you stand out as being untrustworthy:
(1) you seem too eager to "predict" the price to your "followers" (and describe the predictions so reverentially)
(2) There is no true way to arbitrage against you in both directions, as you can only deposit/withdraw bitcoins at your site, not CNY or USD.

If I am wrong, and this is just marketing, then it is bad marketing.

As an aside, to address your response: I don't believe that your platform doesn't participate in trades. The 12k+ daily volume coming within under a month on a "futures" exchange is highly suspect. I believe many exchanges are guilty of this, but there is no way to prove this.

Furthermore, true "arbitrage" is difficult when it seems that one can only deposit and withdraw BTC (not fiat) at your exchange. The way you have the market set up, it is practically impossible for me to bet against you and win, if I believe you are a scammer. You hold all the cards, and have all the information.

All the trading is carried out among investors.
The platform is not involved and the profit comes from trading commission.
If you think the price is abnormal, you may play arbitrage.

So I need to create an account in order to see your analysis. Sorry not worth my time.

Of course it is manipulating. How is it anything else? You can either go into the TA business, or operate a market. Doing both is a massive conflict of interest.  And illegal, I might add.

From Bitcoin trend chart, we will see that the price goes up slowly but down abruptly in earlier period while it’s been down steadily in the recent month. No matter what brings the circumstances, investors are under great pressure. There’s an obvious sign of speculative funds outflow. When it dropped to 72$ yesterday and bounces appeared, there should be uptrend resistance after correction at 80$. However, no rise shows when it’s supposed so and long strength can’t gather.

Hi there,
Mr. Zhu just wants to share his views.
Some friends may take it as reference for Bitcoin investment and the fact is lots of users indeed take profit.
He doesn't invest on his own platform, because he thinks that may bring bad effects.(some people may think he is manipulating.)

oh doh another copy-cat

Oh look... "Mr 796" (who -- let's drop the pretense -- is probably you, ZhuRong), is releasing forecasts in an attempt to influence his own futures market. Isn't this a bit brazenly unethical? One would think you would at least go to some lengths to hide what you are doing.

I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....

Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.

Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?  

Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?

Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).

he's just sharing his view with more friends.

You don't need to draw lines and arrows in charts to undestand this is a bear trend

What mr 796 is doing is just predicting a forward-moving car that it will continue to move forward. Then people here think he's some kind of oracle

796 knows this. He's trying to build reputation though and this is an easy way since generally sheeple here are not very bright

Hi everybody,

In the previous post I mentioned that there was no obvious big trading following yesterday’s slump. We can see the previous several bottom features from the chart, in which all accompanying with substantially increased volume and slump. Thus, we still need to observe to decide whether 72$ is the lows in the near future. Since there is no sign of much rise or arbitrage, I had transferred the last Bitcoins worth tens of thousands dollars from MTGOX to BTTC and then sold them all this morning.



Thanks!

Thanks for your support.
Take care. 

  you're welcome,buddy.

 

Hi everybody,

Bitcoin price has continue to slump in the recent few days. From the trend chart, although it touched 72$ yesterday, there’s no obvious big trading. Thus, we can’t be so sure that 72$ is the lows in these days. We may wait and see.

According to Bitcoin trend chart, the trend should be like this : it is hard to drop in a short term; there should be a period of slow rise which may get to $85-$87; then there will be another bottom process; after that, it will go upward; and then we can predict whether it’s fall in a relay or the beginning of a new wave of rise depending on the long and short strength. We can check the market trend and always remember: sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn't do so.

Thanks!

Fantastic thread. Quality analysis is much appreciated. I plan on following this thread closely. Thanks.

Thank you for your answer 796.

hi there,
796 Exchange was established about 1 month ago and I'm one of the employees.
it was the first Bitcoin futures exchange in China.
so far we have attracted many investors.
at first, Mr. Zhu just released his view in our official QQ Group and those forecast fulfilled perfectly since our operation.
and then he realized he should share his view with more people.
besides, we plan to promote our exchange among foreign investors and we did it from here to let more people know about 796 Exchange.
it is just the initial plan.

have a nice day.

why would he employ you to share his views? If the forecast turns out to be right, good public relations for his exchange? Of what benefit does he have getting good PR from English-speaking users on an internet forum?

these information all comes from Zhurong's blog who is one of the CEO of 796 Exchange(the boss).
he is willing to share his views.
and i'm in charge of putting his forecast here.
thanks.

these information all comes from Zhurong's blog who is one of the CEO of 796 Exchange(the boss).
he is willing to share his views.
and i'm in charge of putting his forecast here.
thanks.

Bitcoin price outlook:
Time:GMT+8

After the whole morning’s sell into correction, short strength consumes itself to some extent and gets temporary support after double dip at 75 dollars. Single short term buying at near $75 may wait to sell at around $85. As for the present low 75.12 $ still needs to be looked into before we say it is the lowest level. The breakout below $75 is preferable for buy in batches. No much risk for short term. We don’t advise to cut positions when it is below $80.

always consider the possibility this could be manipulation for you to set up bids for their selloff. not saying it is, could be bad karma for him to take advantage of people like that so he might choose not to, but always consider the worst. 796 saying he's working for his "boss" is why I'm watching out for the possibility.

Otherwise, 796, I don't mean to be offensive at all. Thank you for offering your input.

Thanks, looks like $75 has held up so far, might join in on the wall later today.

thanks. 

thanks.
will update daily.
but no more yet beyond July.

As promised, today's update (GMT+8)
(since we are not native speaker of English, there might be inaccurate words. we will try to be better.)

Continuous slump recently, I pointed out the price was approaching $100 on June 24th and gave the breakout alert at $100 on June 28th. On July 1st, I reminded of watching out for sudden power of selling short and offered the $80-$85 as the relatively safe buy area.  And I reminded of watching out for sell into correction if correction stays low and weak and also offered a safe buy price of around $75 on July 3rd.

You guys must have found that I’m taking the trend that if there’s no sign of rally at low correction, then there will be price slump risks for selling short as an important indicator. Here comes up with the most useful view “ sell short if it is supposed to rise but doesn’t; buy long if it is supposed to go down but doesn’t do so”. Well, you should earn more experience to know when it’s “ supposed” to go up or down. Besides, you need to grasp the general trend.

In two consecutive days, I forecast that the price drops around $15 when sell short and it fulfilled within 24 hours. I believe that I’m the only person who can say like that. And the forecast has been fulfilled perfectly since May 1st. 
PS: hence I think the bounces may have come to an end which began from $80, I shouldn’t just let investors in QQ Group know. Therefore, I created my microblog account which may share my views with more Bitcoin funs.

Most investors in our official Tencent QQ Group( a kind of instant chatting tool in China) have successfully avoided the slump wave and a lot of members on our 796 Exchange have taken much profit from selling short. I’ve kept emphasizing that we should treat Bitcoin investment rationally or it will just cost your money and confidence if you imagine blindly. Also, I think lots of Bitcoiners who believe in bright Bitcoin prospect are now feeling under pressure and beginning to fear to face the Bitcoin price. However, as long as you take it rationally, you can ignore the price.

See you tomorrow.

Interesting.  Any projections beyond July? 

Thank you, following closely your posts

Thanks for your support.
Will keep it updated in time.
And all the time in the post is GMT+8.

Bitcoin market outlook:
Time: GMT+8

From daily chart, downtrend continues. For medium-term, buy orders could wait till it gets to around $75 after slump. For short term trend, $98 becomes the interim price. Now correction at low needs bounces and could look out for buy power. The possibility of continued downs should be watched out if correction stays at $93 below for a long time. Besides, risk event of USD withdrawal from MTGOX should be paid more attention.

From the 4-hour chart, the Bitcoin price trend should be uptrend and bounce. Short term resistance with $93, $95 and $98 upside. If the correction keeps at low area when it’s time to rally, and long power doesn’t show up, there will be more and more people losing their patience which will lead to slump.

Yesterday someone told me that it was not me who was forecasting the trend accurately but my view was affecting the trend. And then he gave me an example: he bought more than 1000BTC from Mt. Gox after he read my blog. Suddenly I realized why I’m over conservative recently and the price forecast is always a little bit deviation.

On June 12th, I forecast the price will sway in the $95-$115 area with high sell and low buy. The result showed $113 tops and $97 low until $115 upside on June 21st.
Support area $80-$85 on July 1st, it closes at $86.
Though the specific price what I referred is just relatively safe and conservative when I was doing short term analysis, I feel maybe I’m becoming older that makes me not so aggressive any longer.

However, I’m not feeling confused and doubting myself any more, because that is not my problem. Everybody should balance the price movement area and operate in batches.
After all, I’m not giving the absolute perfect price. Thus, you guys should think about the risk and control it. You may transact following your way after reading my forecast.

time: GMT+8

Thanks for posting, it's very interesting, please continue to post, will watch for this scenario in the near term.

Sure, the thread is all yours buddy. I am all for extra information to process, helps correct my predictions on my own chart.

Bitcoin price forecast
Time below are all GMT+8
I’ll keep it updated in time.

From May 1st, 2013, I have been offering Bitcoin price analysis for free.
They could access the most latest Bitcoin price analysis from:
   Sina microblog: http://weibo.com/796COM
   We chat: WWW796COM
   Tencent QQ Group: 181256559

Following are some fulfilled forecast:


On May 1st, I sold all my Bitcoins on Mt. Gox at the price of $134 and then I expressed my view that the uptrend from $52 has come to an end after 24 o’clock. Also, I told all the investors in Tencent QQ Group to sell.

On May 3rd, I said to the investor in QQ Group that they could buy at around $80-$85. Because of fund transfer, I did not buy since I missed the low price chance.

On May 24th, when Bitcoin price stands at $125 of the interim area, I bought more than 2,000 Bitcoins at the price of $128 to do short-term on Mt. Gox. It was just my trading that brought out rapid price uptrend on Mt. Gox.

On May 30th, I sold all my Bitcoins at the average price of $131, since there was no support for buy and also I didn’t think it would be profitable to do medium and long term investment. At the same time, I pointed that the uptrend of the wave from $80 would probably end. I bought at $102 on June 8th and then transferred to BTCCHINA to perform arbitrage. Also, I indicated that there was no need to sell at a loss when it was under $100, while bounces could be expected.Before and after the day 12th and 20th of June, I kept reminding of selling short at around $115.

On July 1st, I posted in microblog:
From the 4-hour chart, the current correction price is relatively weak. Standing at $100 has become a strong resistance. It is important to look out for sudden power of selling short when buying long has not effectively shown. If there is no powerful buy orders to pull the price back to $100 above in a short time, a lot of people will begin to sell. The next range should possibly stand at $80-$85.

And this is from July 2nd blog:
We could see that the Bitcoin price has been way down beginning from BTC-China and then Mt. Gox. It is also approaching the $80-$85 target range which he mentioned in his blog(see the above). But he did not advise selling at a loss when it is under $90. The price rebounds easily throughout whole night’s persistence in selling short and available for rally. On the other hand, short-term buying long is preferable when it is around $80.

I’m Jue sheng qian li( which means win thousands of miles away). It’s my blog name. My real name is Zhurong and I devised the exclusive Bitcoins-based futures for 796 Exchange.It is an exchange that is completely different from any other ones.
I’ve got more than 15 years of experience in financial investment.
I’m happy to share my forecast with Bitcoin funs from all over the world.
If you like, I’d post it here every day.

One more time did the blogger offer users the accurate Bitcoin movements yesterday. From May 1st, people who have been keeping an eye on his forecasts on Bitcoin trend have evaded losses from slump and taken more or less profit. If you guys like and trust him, I’ll open a thread here on behalf of him focusing on Bitcoin movement so that you may earn more.
PS: the blogger is my boss and he is also called “ghost trader” in China.

The following analysis quoted from the blogger published at: http://weibo.com/796COM, July 1st (GMT+8)
Bitcoin market movement outlook:
From the 4-hour chart, the current correction price is relatively weak. Standing at $100 has become a strong resistance. It is important to look out for sudden power of selling short when buying long has not effectively shown. If there is no powerful buy orders to pull the price back to $100 above in a short time, a lot of people will begin to sell. The next range should possibly stand at $80-$85.

We could see that the Bitcoin price has been way down beginning from BTC-China and then Mt. Gox. It is also approaching the $80-$85 target range which he mentioned in his blog(see the above). But he did not advise selling at a loss when it is under $90. The price rebounds easily throughout whole night’s persistence in selling short and available for rally. On the other hand, short-term buying long is preferable when it is around $80.


If anyone is interested in this topic, I'll continue to keep it updated.