Bitcoin mining Contracts | Bitcointalksearch.org

joust

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

It's been some time since this thread has had some comments, but I thought people might be interested to see how that 1TH/s contract has been doing lately.

Here is the latest screenshot

Earnings have gone from 2.737345BTC to 4.188266BTC.

Unfortunately the BTC:$ price has changed a lot negatively since the last screenshot so $ earnings are suppressed between comparing the two of them (how we wish we could affect that!) but it shows the continued strong BTC earnings of the contract (we are within 0.7 of Steve's 20% difficulty increase maximum earnings, just 3 months in)

Comments as always welcome.

ONLYfree

legendary

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Now is new bitcoin mining service who give free 10 ghs mining power to see how it works. You can check it in my signature.

Thank you

TheRealSteve

hero member

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FUN > ROI

Quote from: sumpahpocong on July 03, 2014, 11:36:39 AM

you've tried?
I am also interested in https://www.bitcoincloudservices.com/

Nope - that blog checks out some cloud mining services, so you could keep an eye on them. Do note that the time you get into it can affect returns (if any). Which means that any review of a cloud mining service over period t0-t1 doesn't necessarily mean it'll perform similarly over period t1-t2 or t2-t3. aka "past performance is not a guarantee of future results"

sumpahpocong

newbie

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Quote from: TheRealSteve on June 30, 2014, 09:56:52 AM

I'd be surprised if one existed - though theoretically one could exist, long term it doesn't make sense.

Here's a recent review of one that looked somewhat promising:
http://cryptomining-blog.com/2940-checking-out-bitcoin-cloud-services/

Until you get to this part:

Quote

Doing a quick calculation has shown that if the Bitcoin network difficulty remains the same and the daily payout is also the same as the one we got the first day we are going to need a little over 82 days to get back what we have spent for the mining contract.

(emphasis mine)
Note that that post was made just a day or so before the difficulty jumped by almost 25% - so that '82 days' was horribly optimistic at best

you've tried?
I am also interested in https://www.bitcoincloudservices.com/

joust

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Steve,

Again, all good words and factual. As you say anyone offering a "guaranteed" return would be brave, stupid and likely to be just running a Ponzi scheme. If you check out the history of the people that founded Megamine you'll see we all come from telecoms/Internet backgrounds and so have a history of offering people choices about what they buy from us and the returns that you may get.

If you want to mine for bitcoins, rather than buy them, it feels a bit like the early days of having email and websites where you had three choices - try and do it yourself, get someone else to do it, or buy a service from the early companies like Easynet that we come from. 'Rationally' people may have told you that doing any of them was a waste of time as it was just a fad and 'you'll never make any money from the Internet', but now 20 years later that feels stupid, but you'll be amazed at the number of clever people that said "oh, that website stuff, it's all over now, only the big guys can make money" in 2000-2005 and here we are with new Internet successes being created every day by the small guys still.

No-one can really predict the future (and if they say they can, just ask them who's going to win the World Cup, the F1 championship and the 5:15 at Kempton) but we are here to provide a service for people that have weighed up the options and want to mine, but don't or can't do it themselves. Hopefully we do that in a transparent, open and straightforward way.

Finally on the price I went on our our mid price which we use to set our CashNow value (details at www.megamine.com), which can sometimes be slightly higher than others as it depends on our view of how many bitcoins as a business we need.

Useful and good discussion. Thanks again for your contribution as only through forums like this can people hopefully get the facts they need to make an informed choice about what they do.

I'd be delighted to come back in 10 months and see how this has done - perhaps I'll post once a quarter to this thread and we can have some good thoughts about where things may be going?

J

TheRealSteve

hero member

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FUN > ROI

True, the difficulty is unlikely to flatline. The question - or, as I think you rightly indicate, gamble - is how it's going to fluctuate.

Will it be 25% again and again? Unlikely.

Of course, if the prediction is more along your orange line and an assumption that it would continue, then over time a number of very strange things would start happening - including reduction of difficulty (which has happened a few times) to the point that the 1Thash/s for the contract would have to be the sole contributor to the hash rate and payouts would be capped at exactly the block reward (minus whatever fees may apply)... though at that point, Bitcoin is pretty much dead Wink

The truth, of course, is going to be somewhere in between the extremes, and I'm certainly not suggesting my post as advice either - people need to decide for themselves

But I will guess that there's good historic reason (almost regardless of which time period is chosen) to think that the difficulty will continue to increase and the relative change will at least remain above 10% for the foreseeable future (the recent bump isn't the only expected one, but I'm leaving that aside). Even if it drops lower after a while, it would put break-even well, well into the future.

Looping around to OP's question, there are basically none that guarantee a profit. They could exist - as a short term offer in order to get an injection of funds to invest in hardware, hosting, etc. - but after recouping those costs it makes no sense to continue a 'guaranteed' offer.

There are, however, plenty that will be honest (and I'm glad to see you're among them) that basically say "There are no guarantees in mining, it's all an informed gamble, we're just here to help make that gamble a smooth experience for you and take the hassle of buying/setting up/running/maintaining/hosting/cooling/etc. hardware off your hands."

That said, perhaps we can revisit this specific mining contract by the end of the year, and give things an update.

In the mean time, (possible) errata:
There was in fact an error in my revenue graphs, though the error is not visible at all and does not even affect the rounded-to-3-decimals numbers.

As far as the price for May 4th goes - that probably depends on which exchange is being checked against. bitstamp suggests $433, bitfinex at $439, btc-e at $429 and a weighted average at $432. Not sure where you got the $455, but yes.. it's a fairly minor impact

joust

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Nice analysis that I can't pick any factual holes in, good to have such an educated piece.

The key is of course this statement:

Now the historic difficulty shows us that the difficulty rarely went below 10%, so let's include at least that one. Let's also include the ubiquitously cited 20%.

Now, if you take the bitcoinwisdom figures (which is a great site) and plot all the difficulty changes they have, you get this

The difficulty (sorry, no pun intended) is what you mean by historic, especially if you are looking at a 12 month, but more so a 24 or 36 month contract.

I've given three possible views, there can be many more

The red line seemed to be what was happening in the 'early phase' of bitcoin.
The green is essentially the last year and a half averaged.
The orange is the last year.

So which do you use to predict the next 10 months. The average. The last year. Since time began. A weighted version against bitcoin price? Something else?

The uptick right at the end that argues against the orange line is, of course, last weekends 25%+ change, but there is pretty good speculation about what caused that, and it's certainly not carrying on because estimated difficulty has been steadily falling since the last change, and is now down to 15%. The latest graph from bitcoinwisdom shows that clearly.

So, is the 'arms race' over, or is this the lull before the storm? That is the question, or the fun of predicting the two way problem about BTC price and hash rate progression.

The main issue is of course small impacts on what you 'flatline' difficulty in your calculations have large impacts on early life contracts such as the one I demonstrated, and I would argue that your analysis where you 'flatline' a difficulty change every 2 weeks is half the issue in your predictive answers as clearly difficulty is not going to flatline.

Finally, as you note, just like buying shares when you are 20, ignoring them, and seeing what they are worth at 50 probably isn't the best investment strategy, we wouldn't really recommend anyone not doing a more balanced view of how to invest in mining buy regularly buying contracts to smooth out ups and downs.

One final minor thing, we have a mid price of 455 not 435 for 4th May, but that only changes your 'buy bitcoins' analysis by 5%.

TheRealSteve

hero member

Activity: 686

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FUN > ROI

Quote from: joust on July 01, 2014, 09:47:32 AM

You can hopefully draw your own conclusions.

Sure, let's give that a quick stab.
The following should be taken as general commentary, not specific to the aforementioned service. Your mileage may (or rather, will) vary.

Here's the input data:

Source: The screenshots. I measured pixels over the height of the Y axis to get to preliminary numbers. Then for each of the two graphs I took the actually cited revenue to apply a correction to the figures to get to the likely actual numbers.
Note that this is an X/Y plot, as the screenshots' bar graphs use two different scales (1 bar per 8 hours vs 1 bar per 12 hours).

The line graph is the accumulated revenue. I think it should be clear that it declines. While the sample set is too small (given variability) to really see it, this actually follows the changes in difficulty.

period

joust

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Unlike a lot of companies we are quite happy to post actual earnings so people can make up their mind, but we know that due to quite a few unique features we have our contracts over-perform in the marketplace.

Of course no-one can tell you if you are guaranteed to make a profit because you'd need time travel to do that to know what both the difficulty and the BTC price were going to be over the term of your contract, but then that's no different that people buying shares or any other asset that has multiple factors affecting the overall returns.

Here is a real 1THs contract that started two months ago

And here is the same screenshot taken this afternoon

You can hopefully draw your own conclusions.

If anyone wants any more examples of what you would have earned then I'm always happy to provide them.

Further details can be found at http://www.megamine.com

J

tuanvie

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Activity: 448

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Quote from: austriabitcoin on June 30, 2014, 09:02:20 AM

Does anyone know of a good mining Contract Company where you actually profit from buying those contracts??

thanks

so far I've only tried pbmining and cex.io
but if you are just starting now would be very difficult, because the income would be very small because of the higher diff

DrG

legendary

Activity: 2086

Merit: 1035

Unfortunately any large company will not sell you something that had a realistic chance of making more $ (since then they would be losing out on potential profit) - this is assuming the company knows how to do math. If they are stupid it's possible for them to sell too cheaply to end users.

austriabitcoin

member

Activity: 79

Merit: 10

if you could give me some more Information other than a link would help a lot

How much are you contracts and how much do I make with it and how much does the company make i buy from.

dont just post a stupid link dude Wink

CryptoNames

sr. member

Activity: 423

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Quote from: austriabitcoin on June 30, 2014, 09:02:20 AM

Does anyone know of a good mining Contract Company where you actually profit from buying those contracts??

thanks

MiningContracts.com - Research, compare, and review among the largest selection of Bitcoin and Scrypt Mining Contracts.

CLOUDMINING.GURU

full member

Activity: 130

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Have a look at some of our reviews: https://cloudmining.guru

Regards

ajw7989

legendary

Activity: 924

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I personally have used pbmining and I started in late January. The initial investment was reached ROI and now it is all profit. Of course I have made profit a lot quicker if you count referrals. If you are interested please use my link in my sig. If you have any questions please feel free to contact me as well.

TheRealSteve

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

FUN > ROI

I'd be surprised if one existed - though theoretically one could exist, long term it doesn't make sense.

Here's a recent review of one that looked somewhat promising:
http://cryptomining-blog.com/2940-checking-out-bitcoin-cloud-services/

Until you get to this part:

Quote

Doing a quick calculation has shown that if the Bitcoin network difficulty remains the same and the daily payout is also the same as the one we got the first day we are going to need a little over 82 days to get back what we have spent for the mining contract.

(emphasis mine)
Note that that post was made just a day or so before the difficulty jumped by almost 25% - so that '82 days' was horribly optimistic at best

austriabitcoin

member

Activity: 79

Merit: 10

Does anyone know of a good mining Contract Company where you actually profit from buying those contracts??

thanks

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