Topic: Bitcoin mining in Germany (Read 763 times)

Oh, lol, well I guess gunhell16 was bored and decided to necro a thread for no reason.
I guess he needs random shit posts for his sig.
Meh, I didn't look at the OP date.

From here:
despite some necroing and bumping this after months of inactivity, the OP is from  July 05, 2021 

Where did your -27% come from?

Difficulty is currently 34093570325203.8
The highest it has been is 36950494067222.4 (8.38% higher)

Currently, 60% through the current difficulty it's at +10.5%
... but who knows what it will be - none of the sites are able to predict it properly

But it's 'possible' the next difficulty will be another ATH.

I am not a mining expert, this is just based on my research about the matter you are asking is it okay to mine bitcoin in Germany? and this is what I found out dude.

Your bitcoin mining in Germany will only be profitable if your electricity consumption does not increase too much. In short, at this time bitcoin mining in Germany will not be worth it and you will only lose money. Even if you say you have 8 pcs s9. maybe the income you get will only go to your electricity bill, it will end up losing money, losing tiredness, and wasting time.

I definitely do not recommend. If you keep the money in one place, you will earn more. I say this as someone who lived in Germany for 40 years and made a mining experiment. German finances will definitely be a big trouble for you.

So here's my question, do you think I should go for it? Do you think BTC mining at that kwh costs and the low difficulty adjustment, can be profitable again in Germany? Would love to hear your opinion on that, because my initial costs for the investment would be 65k and the calculations say the machines will produce more than 2.4 BTC in one year, that's more than I would get for 65k USD in BTC right now, and after the initial costs the machines would still produce BTC year after year without me investing further amounts except of maintenance etc. Am I wrong? I would earn around 90k+ in revenue minus the energy costs of 40k which places me a profit of around 50k per year after break even (as of right now).

If you're an expert in mining, meaning you're doing it since several years in large or small scale, please reach out to me, I have several questions regarding my investment and plan.
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I don't think it looks good for now. Because the price of bitcoin itself seems to still be declining. Moreover, the price of components is still quite high in price.

Hey mikey, I heard this argument many times before and it's of course 100% true! But - it's not a black-or-white situation. It's not like the ones with better circumstances (power cost, component cost, labour cost) DO make money and everyone else DOESN'T. It's just simply that the more costs you have, the lower your profit gets (and of course can go into the negatives).

To B1994, I would say: for Germany, 0.16€ is a sick electricity price and I haven't heard of lower prices there so far. The advice to sell that electricity that someone mentioned is actually not a bad idea. But it's of course a whole different kind of business which I have 0 knowledge about.

Regarding mining (anywhere): You want your gear to be as new and as cheap as possible. Especially with a still high electricity price, it would also make sense to try getting something as efficient as possible, and there, Antminers are hard to beat. But they'll need more service than other models.
As I mentioned, hardware cost can very a lot and now I'd say is a very bad time to buy them. Maybe catch a good deal in the next bear market or (pre-)order the next generation of miners as soon as possible, so you mine with 'new gen hashrate' before the whole network adapts to it.

Almost all profitability calculators take current profitability and extrapolate; that's where you get 1yr ROI predictions and after 6 months it still tells you 12 months or even 13. You'd need something that factors in difficulty adjustments (mostly rising) or just try to buy and mine at prices that - extrapolated - get you a way lower ROI, like 6 months or so (with the knowledge that it will stretch out due to diff increase).

Edit: This now goes highly into the realms of speculation, but a big benefit of buying a miner early and close to MSRP is that you might be able to mine with it for months or a year and then resell it for the same or a higher price, thus having essentially 'lent' it for free and just paid for the electricity. If you bet on reselling the miner at cost, ofc all speculations about ROI go out the window, since those assume you're never reselling the miner.

It is not the "best" gear, it's simply the most effienct gear, I don't know what's your definition of best but to me the S19 pro isn't the best gear out there, because efficiency isn't everything, but that's not like a universal rule, it's just my personal opinion, what matters the most for me is ROI, i always pick the gears which has the fastest ROI, I don't care much what happens after.

Of course, I avoid gears that overheat like T9+, or gears that are very inefficient because power is always limited and I want to maximize my hashrate, also gears that are known to have high failure hash rate, but all those technical aspects aside ROI is the most important factor in my book.

The S19 pro seems to be a solid gear so far based on the reviews (it has some PSU issues that a few folks reported), but what's bad about it is the price, the ROI is way too much for me, for your power rate at current difficulty and prices, it's 12-13 months to ROI on those S19 pros, usually what you see on the calculator today is only going to be worse.

There are expectations, you can assume that difficulty won't go up by much, and that price will hit 100k in 2 months and thus you would ROI in say 6 months or less, that's always a possibility, one which I rather not bet on when making business decisions, the other possibility is that BTC price will remain the same or go lower while difficulty keeps going up, this will extend the ROI period, while that isn't a certain scenario but I rather bet on it than against it.

Keep in mind that most people think I am rather very pessimistic when it comes to the price of BTC, but I remember very well when I was telling everyone not to pay 15k for S19 pro a few months ago, but the charts were green, everyone was saying 100k and I must have sounded very stupid to say otherwise, here were are now, with S19 pro making $30 a day as opposed of $50, and I see that things will only get worse from here on.

So bottom line, 10k for S19 pro does not seem like a deal I would take even if I had 0$ per Khw power rate.

I just purchased s19j pro 104 from Grace Zhou after looking around for best price performance ratio.

Good news: I spoke with the CEO of the company and they use around 84mio kwh per year that's why they have really cheap contracts with the energy provider. They only pay 0.03-0.04 kwh EUR.

First of all thanks a lot for your detailed answer! I'm a newbie and appreciate your thorough thoughts on my project. As I said I'm a newbie so I don't know which mining equipment could be the best to be profitable in the long run but I think it's a great opportunity if you have access to such cheap energy costs. I chose the S19 pro because I did some research and thought it is the best gear out right now. Please let me know if I'm wrong or if you know a better alternative. I also know that it's important to get it for a reasonable price, which I'm looking for atm. Again, I think the 0.03-0.04 cents are a great deal and opportunity to go for mining, but if you don't think so please let me know.

It is a lot more feasible with 6 cents that's for sure, this rate is the average for the industry and thus your chances of making a profit increased by a few orders of magnitude, what I don't like about this business plan is the S19 pro part, it's way overpriced and since you can get 6 cents per Kwh that is sort of an edge which you have to make use of, people with free power buy T9+ which is about 10$/th, those with 1-2 cents buy S9s which costs about 14$/th today, so paying $10,000 for S19 pro at a cost of $90/th is without a doubt a terrible idea, let's just make a simple assumption that whatever the ROI that shows now is going to be shifted by 50%.

S19 pro ROI = 10,000/ 770 = 13 months * 1.5 = 19 months > terrible.
M20s (used) ROI =3500 / 390 = 9 months * 1.5 = 13 months > bad.
T17 (used)  ROI = 1700/ 250 = 6.5 months *1.5 = 10 months > not so bad.

*These are based on 6 cents Khw, prices in China + 300-500$ for shipping and duties, the T17 is a terrible gear, it was just there in the reseller list I got recently so I used it

But you get the point I suppose.

Of course, you can go to as low as S9, ROI will be $300/60 = 5 months * 1.5 = 7.5 months, but then it will be a bit risky because if the price drops a bit of difficulty goes up a bit that 60 bucks will disappear and you will start losing, unlike the S19 pro which has a ton of room for profit, these are some of things you need to consider, there is no right or wrong about it, it all depends on your risk management.

Other important factors such as failure are also important, investing 10k in a single gear means that if one hash board is dead, you lose about 3k worth, investing in 3k gear you only lose 1k worth, of course investing in 10k gears means less work and easier management, but everything comes at a cost.

Also, the availability of mining gears in your country is very important, for example, if you want to be in the mid-range risk and go with say M20s, but then find out it will cost you 7k instead of 3.5k, then the S19 pro will be a lot better, if you get lucky and find S9i/S9js for 200$ then ROI is only 5 months and thus might be worth taking the risk, I can't tell you what gears to buy ( don't buy any 17 series from Bitmain because they have high failure rate).

The 1.5 factor isn't something you can count on, it's just a speculation, if your risk tolerance is strict, make it a factor of 2, if you are a risk-taker, you can just work with a factor of 1, there is really no perfect model that fits everyone, I can't tell you what to buy and when to buy, but I hope I gave you the key points which you need to consider before entering the business.

The company is in the poultry industry. They only process Category III abattoir byproducts from poultry there, meaning the production is already pretty noisy. There is internet access available (pretty good one). There is no limit on the 0.05 kWh/EUR since the company already uses a lot of energy so they have really good contracts with the energy provider. They have special cooling deposits for their products where I could set up the ASICS etc.

Is there a limit on how MUCH of that .05 EUR/Kwh is available at the location you chose? How about cooling at that location? How about noise produced by the miners at that location? Is there Internet access available? I would expect that with five S19 Pro you'll need wiring for at least 20 Kilowatts of electricity.

I ask these questions since I didn't see anything about the TYPE of business (Industrial, Office, Manufacturing, etc) that might have problems supporting a mining operation.

The last time the minig had this difficulty bitcoin was exchanged at about 10k dollars, so today all the miners earn 3 times so much, I think that in now is still a good opportunity but the difficulty will soon start to climb, check the graph: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate

Hey there, thank you for your detailed respond! Appreciate it Smiley

I figured out that 0.16 EUR kWh is way to much so I managed to get industry electricity from a nearby company which costs around 0.05 EUR kWh. Do you think the project could be more feasible now? I found a British website offering antminer s19 pro for about £7,399.99 each - https://coinminingcentral.com/collections/frontpage/products/bitmain-antminer-s19-pro-110-th-s?rfsn=1704384.5cfb1b . The website seems reliable. If I buy now 5 Antminer S19 pro for a price of 8500 EUR, my initial investment (+cables, shipping costs, etc.) would be 50-60k EUR, do you think it could be profitable or do you think I should get rid of the idea? Because these electricity costs of 0.05 kWh are tempting...

If it's a good deal in Germany, you might want to figure out a way to sell that power you generate, but with 19 cents kWh you can't possibly profit from mining.



Price can go both ways for years, the difficulty only goes up in the long run (facts are in the charts), your profit will decrease every month more often than not, all these online calculators are misleading, people who bought S19 pro 6 months ago were also looking at a 1 year ROI, it's now still 1 year ROI, they are not even remotely close to ROI.


Where did you get that 65k from? you said S19 pro, today it costs 8.8k in China, so without tax or shipping it's already 70k, with tax, shipping, wiring, and whatnot you will be closer to a 100k than 65k, and no, 8 S19 pro will not make you 2.4 BTC in one year, you have better chances to walk on the moon than making 2.4 BTC with 8 S19 pro in a year.



This is investment advice, and telling you to go for it ( like the first post which is terrible advice) or not, isn't something anyone should do, but if you ask it in a different way, you might get an answer, if I were you, I would NOT go for it.

There are a dozen topics that discuss mining vs buying bitcoin vs keeping your money in the bank, just search the forum and you will find many, some folks who usually never owned mining gear might tell you to invest, most of the folks who know how mining actually works in terms of business - will tell you you should not even think about it.

I am 100% sure you will end up losing money? of course not, but it's an easy bet, you are more likely to lose money than not, I'd say it's easily 20% vs 80%, I would be very surprised if you end up making a profit.

See mining isn't like other businesses where you can expect an increase in demand, if you start a coffee shop tomorrow, you are likely going to benefit from the increasing demand for coffee, more people grow up and want coffee, so the competition factor is not so huge, with mining, however, the rewards are fixed, and they only go down in time, so the competition factor is everything, then comes the question, who are you competing with?

You are competing against people who

1- Have FREE power
2- Very cheap power rate
3- Access to cheap mining gears
4- Pay no tax on income
5- Pay no tax on import
6- Pay $5 an hour for a certified electrician 
7- Pay $3 an hour for someone to install/maintain the miners

And the list goes on and on, every point here counts, these points are like the weapons you take with you to the battle, the more the better, being in Germany you don't have access to cheap gears, you have to pay import and income tax, you can't hire an electrician for $5 an hour, you are going to war with your bare hands, the odds of winning are extremely low.

First of all, I'd move this to Mining Speculation or something close to that, since you want answers from actual miners.
On bottom-left side of the page you'll find "move topic".

Second, I'm not a miner, but if it's 16 Eurocents / kWh then it may be expensive. Again, I am not sure and a miner should confirm, but you may not earn enough to cover the price of electricity and the devices you buy.
Also, I'd expect that in a couple of weeks (months?) the difficulty will "get back to normal", making it more difficult.
And, last point, with the chip shortage wordwide, I would not expect you will be able to buy new mining ASICs.

I am no expert in mining, however, as a scientific and technological experiment, you should definitely do it, if there are no studies on this topic already published. There is no harm in giving it a shot for a period of time and then, win or lose, write on your experience and what you have learned from it. It can only benefit other people. Good luck!

Since the ban of the BTC mining facilities in China and the drop in difficulty adjustment to -27%, I was thinking if I should start a small mining business in Germany. My place consumes energy from biogas plants (these biogas plants operating 8760 hours year minus 10 percent maintenance, etc. 8400 h × 500kw / h, so they produce 4.2 million kw) which cost me around 0.16 kwh EUR. I know it's not as cheap as in the US but still it's a pretty good deal for living in Germany. My plan was to buy 8 antminer S19 pro and set up a small mining farm. The costs will be around 65k USD. According to my calculation as of right now I would be break even in a lil more than a year and after that the calculation says I'll make profit at around 50k Eur if the BTC price is not increasing (which I doubt).

So here's my question, do you think I should go for it? Do you think BTC mining at that kwh costs and the low difficulty adjustment, can be profitable again in Germany? Would love to hear your opinion on that, because my initial costs for the investment would be 65k and the calculations say the machines will produce more than 2.4 BTC in one year, that's more than I would get for 65k USD in BTC right now, and after the initial costs the machines would still produce BTC year after year without me investing further amounts except of maintenance etc. Am I wrong? I would earn around 90k+ in revenue minus the energy costs of 40k which places me a profit of around 50k per year after break even (as of right now).

If you're an expert in mining, meaning you're doing it since several years in large or small scale, please reach out to me, I have several questions regarding my investment and plan.