Topic: Bitcoin Parabolic Price Rise and Crash History – Plus the next 10X move up (Read 108 times)

You are missing some crucial facts though.


1. This bull market is just getting started, so know a 80% fall will not happen from these levels. You're comparing 10x during previous bull runs to 10x from the bottom of the bear market now, which is obviously not the same. If Bitcoin follows the same pattern this year as previous cycles, it still has hundreds of percent to gain before a crash. Current price of $35k should be compared to maybe $3k in Spring of 2017.

2. You're analyzing this as though the market is the same and is still completely controlled by retail investors. But as we all know, the game has changed the past few months. The market is now driven by institutional investors, most of whom got in to hold for many years. They aren't looking to swing trade or sell after a few weeks or a few months. They're in it long term for massive gains and to protect the rest of their money against inflation.


Because of these two facts, a bear market will not happen soon, and even a serious correction is unlikely to happen soon. So far we are just seeing a series of bear traps as the price continues to rise. The latest bear trap lasted a single night, took about a day to get back to previous level, and within the next day pushed to new ATHs. No correction there, just a very quick 20% bear trap followed immediately by new ATHs. I doubt a prolonged bear market will even happen anytime within the next few years if institutions keep building their positions. The could stop any retail driven crash in its tracks due to how much money they have, and it would benefit them to do so as they would build their position further and keep their investment afloat, forcing retail investors to get back in to keep making money.

Bitcoin might fall to $24,000 but it is not a matter as before it falls down, there are probabilities of very last attempt to test resistance $34,700 (that happened hours ago when it climbed back to above $34300). Your short position will end with profit or loss (liquidation) depends on the leverage you use for your position, then how and when bitcoin will move before it falls back to $24,000.

It does not make sense for your short positions if bitcoin moves up and liquidate your short position first, then it will give you a long red candle to $24,000. You only get loss in that move.

Looking at the technical analysis of the price of Bitcoin (BTC) over time and its history of making parabolic price movements I've come up with a very interesting and specific bitcoin price forecast for 2021-2023 based on all of its historical parabolic movements.

Here's a Bitcoin Parabolic Chart from 2017 that helps you see the parabolic movements visually:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/KC2hlEw7-Parabolic-Curve-Bitcoin/

Given all of the new all time highs set by bitcoin in the past, they are almost always followed by a swift 30% decline in the price of bitcoin before the bearish selling momentum turns back to bullish buying again.

Given the new ATH $35,000 bitcoin price, a 30% decline of $11,500 will soon bring the bitcoin price back down to ($23,500-$24,000)

$24,000 is also a key resistance level above $20K that needs to be retested both technically & psychologically.

Bitcoin will need to survive the $24K level crash to form a new base bottom before the next big move of BTC price can move up 10X.

When looking at the 10X run in 2014 from $120 to $1,200, immediately following the 10X move up BTC price gave back 83% of its value crashing back down to $200 in 2015.

2017 saw Bitcoin go from $1,100 to $19,600 - before giving up 84% to $3150 in 2018.

So, now that the shorts have been squeezed and the mania has peaked brining BTC to the recent parabolic move to $35,000, selling has already begun and the move down to $24,000 is under way now.

IF bitcoin can survive the crash to $24,000 throughout trading levels in 2021 and find a bottom for itself at the $24,000 base price in 2021 then it could begin its next parabolic move of 10X up to potentially $240,000 by the end of 2023.

That is the best case scenario in my analysis.

However, If Bitcoin can not find a itself a new base at $24,000, then a second crash will cause the bitcoin price to then retest the $20,000 level.

If that $20,000 bitcoin price fails, a swift ~33% crash would take bitcoin back down to a very solid $12,000 resistance level.

There's still a fairly realistic chance that Bitcoin gives up nearly 84 % AGAIN like IT DID in after BOTH of the last 2 major parabolic moves up.

It gave up 84% in the 2018 crash after the 2017 ATH $19,600 which crashed all the way down to $3,150, just like it gave up 84% of its value from $1,200 to $200.

So... in 2020 Bitcoin rose ~10X from $3100 to $30,000.

Could yet another 84% crash happen for a three peat?

In that ultimate worst case 84% loss scenario that we've seen happen after both of the last two 10X+ moves, Bitcoin would bottom around $5,520 after a third 84% crash.

In that case, a 10X move up would take bitcoin to $55,200 by the end of 2023.

So what do you all think?

Is a bitcoin price crash to $24,000 going to be the next big parabolic price movement?

What do you think the price will likely be by the end of 2023?

$55,200 or $240,000? or something else altogether and why?

Hopefully it will find good support at $24,000 and go back up, however, Time alone will tell ...

Congrats to all the hodlers but don't get greedy

Disclaimer: I'm short Bitcoin - short BTC and will be looking for a swift drop to $24,000

This is a copy of my bitcoin parabolic curve analysis post on TrustGeeky:
https://trustgeeky.com/blog/bitcoin-parabolic-price-rise-and-crash-history-plus-the-next-10x-move-up/