Topic: Bitcoin Price and why? Halving and future. info (Discussion/Debate) (Read 649 times)

you must consider only mega farm, small miner that have expensive electricity are out of the game this is true, but they were never a factor, hell...many of them even do it for fun

bears in mind that big famrs like china farm that own 60% of the network if not more already...are running s7 since months, the same for the other i believe

this because they need to stay competitive, they don't have the luxury to remain with older tech that have already roi'ed, also pointless....

p.s. the millionth time was an hyperbole of course, but i've said it at least 3-5 times already in different thread....

I reckon that miners with the least mining power will sell their hardware 1 or 2 months before the halving because if many miners sell their hardware at the time which the halving is happening then the price of the hardware will go down because there is more supply and less demand for the old mining hardware.

I think this logic makes sense in theory, but it doesn't really tell the whole story. I'll start off by saying that I think that the halving will either cause a small, gradual rise in price or none at all.

First of all, the halving is an extremely anticipate-able event. Everyone knows when it will happen, and people who believe it will cause the price to rise or fall will make their trades well ahead of time.

Second of all, the supply of bitcoin does not get cut in half when the halving occurs... the rate at which new bitcoin gets created is what gets cut in half. It will take a while for this to translate to a significantly lower supply (relative to demand) than there is now. This is why I think a rise would be gradual.

Lastly, a sudden rise in price would imply a higher demand for bitcoin, which I don't think is ever a safe bet. I don't see any reason to believe that the halving would lead to a higher demand for bitcoin - just a lower supply relative to the current demand.

Amph thank you for your arguments , i cant say you are wrong because you are not , but i dont believe that in a milion times that you wrote this argument noone argued back that there is not only antminers on the market,there is lots of miners wich consume much more elctricity than the antminers, miners that actually produced ROI for them owners , not like the antminers today that barely break even, or maybe dont.

I was a miner myself since the Jupiter of KNC

So even if the s7 mines bitcoin for 45$ / month and this is the case where you pay only 0.05 cents on elec.
Other miners out there dont cost 45$/month but more, and 0.05 is best case scenario for mining.

So if you start to take into consideration the other miners that are out there that 45$ is going to get bigger and bigger.

Thanks for your answer , I find it valid but incomplete .

I have a question for you , how many miners out of all , like a %, do you believe antminer s7 represents??
So What % of all hashing power currently on the network represents antminer s7?
I dont know the answer thats why im asking.

again this argument, i've posted many times that the diff is rising because there is a good profit for miners yet

here the math again for the millionth time, one s7 produce 0.016 a day = roughly 0.5 a month = around $200 a month

consumption is only $45 a month(1200w x 24 x 30) at 0.05 electricity(some mega farm run on 0.03...so even lower)

no you see 200 vs 45, plenty of profit yet, now factor in the halving, still 100 vs 45, plenty of profit ...yet, now double the diff(300B) still 50 vs 45(at 0.05 rate) or 50 vs 30(at 0.03 rate), plenty of profit...yet

All the miners in the world will be marginally 50% less effective. But their mining equipment will have been purchased before the block reward reduction, and they will take the overall cost of production into account - which will vary by miner, and by mining gear. Consider a hypothetical sole miner with one solitary ASIC - they purchased it in November 2014, and it reached ROI in October 2015. Their concerns are now the cost of electricity - as difficulty increases will the 12.5 BTC they receive per block cover the cost of the electricity they use in the (lengthening) period of time it takes them to find a block? Contrast that with another (also hypothetical) miner with the same ASIC, but purchased later, in Summer 2015, say. They haven't reached ROI, and need to consider amortisation of the ASIC's purchase cost as well as difficulty and electricity costs.

My point is that this is a calculation that deals with the overall cost of production, i.e. the cost over the life-time of their mining gear. Looking solely at marginal production costs is not what sensible miners are doing. They have a pretty good idea how much they need to sell their BTC for, over the life-time of their mining gear.

I'm not sure why anyone would believe that difficulty would fall 50%, that's just bizarre. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a reduction in difficulty post-halving, but I'd expect it to be consistent with previous reductions (in size and duration).

And also we better consider what will happen when the price hits 600-700, will most people sell or will most people continue to hold? If most people sell, will there be enough buyers to catch those sell orders because if not then the price will go down. If we continue to hold in general, at what price point will major sell orders hit and will there be buyers.

I refer to production cost as the average between all mining costs everywhere. Ofc a large mine will have significantly lower power costs versus the average Joe.

If the average power cost for bitcoin mining is representative of bitcoins bottom value// then when halving kicks in all the miners in the world will be -50% less effective at the same cost as when they were before the halving

If price is 500$ and the cost for producing that bitcoin is 400$ , or 350$ , miners wil pay 800$ or 700$ for the production of one bitcoin the first month after the halving occurs. And i dont believe the difficulty will halve also, rather the price will rally.

Yeah, we are all not the same for speculation and the fluctuate of bitcoin is not stable we don't know what will happen in the future.
But if you believe in bitcoin you don't need to search for the answer about the price in the future because we are not fortune teller to say that the price will rise soon or the value of bitcoin will dump.. Its randomly decreasing and we don't know what will happen next.

It all because to know the price the bitcoin in future and How its gonna work in world economy. Thats why you can see so many speculations about that.
May be not all speculations are not true but some specs are true.

I suspect your guesstimate for production costs is incorrect, but perhaps more importantly - production costs vary with producer. A large miner in China may well have lower production costs than a small miner in Arkansan. A miner who invested several years ago in solar power will have amortised that fixed cost over several years. A miner reliant on the local electricity generation company will be looking at ongoing and possibly increasing variable costs.

When people say "the halving is priced in" what they mean is - traders know the block reward reduction is going to happen. So do miners. The halving isn't going to take most people by surprise. Most traders selling BTC now are aware of the impending block reward reduction, and will trade accordingly - and that includes taking into account the reduced supply of BTC post-halving (i.e. in the future). Miners make decisions in advance - they decide to purchase mining gear in full knowledge that the return from that new equipment will almost certainly diminish over time (due to difficulty increasing) and that there will certainly be a 50% reduction some time later this year. They'll have been selling the coins they generate while being aware of all this, and hoping to cover their costs and make a profit over time, specifically over the lifetime of their mining equipment.

When the block reward reduction happens, we won't see miners or traders being caught out. They knew the halving was going to happen, and they've been targeting what they consider to be a good price - taking what they know will happen into account.

This doesn't mean that nearly 4 years ago price increased dramatically to reflect the 2016 halving - the relevance of the halving to price obviously increases as halving approaches. But equally it doesn't mean that the halving will, in and of itself, cause price to dramatically increase. Any dramatic increase is far more likely to (a) be caused by less sophisticated traders hoping to trade off "FOMO" ("fear of missing out" - i.e. when the price goes up they worry it'll continue to go up, and buy in too late), and (b) be short-lived.

You may have a point but not necessarily the prices gains double value just because of the halving. Sure enough it will have a big saying in terms of spike in value but I think at most it could surge in around $200 more than it is now and nothing more plus there are other factors into play as well and supply and demand are not sole factors that determine BTCitcoin value (unfortunately).

hello bitcoiners.

-----BITCOIN PRICE AND WHY?

It is known that the price is made by offer/demand no doubt. In BTC there is another variable wich is called Production costs.And like in any business in order to profit you have to sell your stuff for more than you pay for it in the first place.

since 2013 bubble popped the price hit this hard floor in wich production cost is equal(more or less) to the price of bitcoin.

Recent price gains made bitcoin go up from 250 to 500 , that made additional room for miners to profit so more miners bought into the game and because of that they more than doubled the difficulty since its 250$ levels.

based on the above assumptions the price of Bitcoin cant go any lower and if it does it will rebound quickly above 400$ level.

-----HALVING

Ive come across many people wanting to know what will happen to price when halving kicks in. My toughts:

in any market where there is a constant supply and demand like in Bitcoin if the supply halves the price will go up because the demand is still the same , in this case where supply cuts in half it is not wrong to assume that the price will double in my personal view.

many people say that the halvin is priced in   ?!?!?!? how is that possible i dont know because right now it costs you about 330-350$ at least to mine a bitcoin with the latest hardware and after the halvind that cost will efectively double. (correct me if im wrong)


-----FUTURE

Simply put : MOON