This effect always strikes me a little bit. I guess this was less prominent when bitcoin was a “nerd money”, as they didn’t care about weekends.
Now bitcoin is more institutionalised money, so I guess there’s a correlation with inflows/outflows from traditional banking systems, working only on workdays. But I am wondering about the future: how to match a 24/7 market with a 9/17 workday only traditional system? I guess this is only an incident in history.
I think I made a similar post on the linked threads, but this aspect puzzles me a lot.
It is hard to say because I don't have enough evidence (data) to prove it. What I get here is very raw picture but it give us something. Personally, I thought that the workday effects on price (volatility) and weekend effects on transaction fees can be explained as simply as this:
- Whales can be a single person, a group or institutes. Of course, to manipulate price they need to work as a group (there are potential conflict of interests between groups). They are rich so they don't have dedication to trade and play with the market in weekends that are time for them to enjoy entertainment in live.
- The market is actively trading 24/7 but the game is in the hands of whales, not all traders. Without big market makers, the market is less volatile.
In Interquartile range ranks, there is no changes for all-year period or for 2020-only period. Let's see whether it will be change next 1, 2 or 5 years (after the next halving).
Ooops! Let's me check the result again. It seems I mistakenly copied and pasted the result. Confirmed it !
All years
* Ranks are based on interquartile range (iqr = p75 - p25)
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| dofw iqr p25 p75 median min max |
|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
1. | Thursday 3.592934 -1.51409 2.078844 .082507 -37.1869 33.31021 |
2. | Monday 3.592846 -1.27665 2.316196 .255949 -19.80621 41.6811 |
3. | Wednesday 3.242431 -1.553851 1.688581 .0794501 -22.92834 19.86095 |
4. | Tuesday 3.142102 -1.203938 1.938165 .122944 -18.16384 17.39172 |
5. | Friday 3.059987 -1.235891 1.824096 .1802792 -20.42729 15.73781 |
6. | Sunday 2.536824 -1.040577 1.496247 .0693629 -15.33058 14.13432 |
7. | Saturday 2.399184 -.8964984 1.502686 .251333 -16.41167 14.6789 |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
In 2020 only
* Ranks are based on interquartile range (iqr = p75 - p25)
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| dofw iqr p25 p75 median min max |
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
1. | Monday 3.891994 -.556548 3.335446 .5560157 -6.884572 10.96038 |
2. | Tuesday 3.354167 -1.036243 2.317924 .0488164 -6.230167 8.436751 |
3. | Thursday 3.238406 -1.167028 2.071378 .2544709 -37.1869 18.0304 |
4. | Wednesday 2.618876 -.7242507 1.894625 .8378724 -5.544591 12.73686 |
5. | Sunday 2.106423 -.9847237 1.1217 .0117402 -8.98149 4.35372 |
6. | Friday 2.067744 -.9416836 1.12606 -.0321932 -6.00138 10.87881 |
7. | Saturday 1.688826 -.4005385 1.288288 .2637979 -6.687685 3.859725 |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
I don't get what you mean about 9/17 workday. Could you explain it, please.
Differences between median and IQR of 2020-only and all-year.
- median_diff = median20 - median
- iqr_diff = iqr20 - iqr
- median_diff2 = median20 - median20ex (ex means excluded)
- iqr_diff2 = iqr20 - iqr20ex
- In difference of median, values of 2020 tend to higher than all-year period in workdays. Good and likely logic for all days, except Tuesday. I don't know how to explain the strange day.
- Differences look bigger for 2020 and non-2020 period (see at the bottom)
* Median
+-----------------------------------------------------------+
| dofw median_diff median20 median iqr |
|-----------------------------------------------------------|
1. | Wednesday .7584223 .8378724 .0794501 3.242431 |
2. | Monday .3000666 .5560157 .255949 3.592846 |
3. | Thursday .1719639 .2544709 .082507 3.592934 |
4. | Saturday .0124649 .2637979 .251333 2.399184 |
5. | Sunday -.0576228 .0117402 .0693629 2.536824 |
6. | Tuesday -.0741276 .0488164 .122944 3.142102 |
7. | Friday -.2124724 -.0321932 .1802792 3.059987 |
+-----------------------------------------------------------+
Interquartile range
+--------------------------------------------------------+
| dofw iqr_diff iqr20 iqr median |
|--------------------------------------------------------|
1. | Monday .2991476 3.891994 3.592846 .255949 |
2. | Tuesday .2120643 3.354167 3.142102 .122944 |
3. | Thursday -.3545282 3.238406 3.592934 .082507 |
4. | Sunday -.4304004 2.106423 2.536824 .0693629 |
5. | Wednesday -.6235559 2.618876 3.242431 .0794501 |
6. | Saturday -.7103577 1.688826 2.399184 .251333 |
7. | Friday -.9922428 2.067744 3.059987 .1802792 |
+--------------------------------------------------------+
2020 and non-2020 periods.
Median
+---------------------------------------------------+
| dofw median_diff2 median20 median20ex |
|---------------------------------------------------|
1. | Wednesday .8084463 .8378724 .0294261 |
2. | Monday .3298792 .5560157 .2261365 |
3. | Thursday .1885768 .2544709 .0658942 |
4. | Saturday .0259284 .2637979 .2378695 |
5. | Sunday -.0646415 .0117402 .0763816 |
6. | Tuesday -.0895118 .0488164 .1383282 |
7. | Friday -.2644089 -.0321932 .2322156 |
+---------------------------------------------------+
Interquartile range
+---------------------------------------------+
| dofw iqr_diff2 iqr20 iqr20ex |
|---------------------------------------------|
1. | Monday .444531 3.891994 3.447463 |
2. | Tuesday .1343999 3.354167 3.219767 |
3. | Thursday -.3918223 3.238406 3.630229 |
4. | Wednesday -.5871975 2.618876 3.206073 |
5. | Sunday -.6207919 2.106423 2.727215 |
6. | Saturday -.918386 1.688826 2.607212 |
7. | Friday -1.213345 2.067744 3.281089 |
+---------------------------------------------+