Bitcoin price, Mining and the Seasons (MY THEORY)

Lucius

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Quote from: cryptoglia on April 07, 2018, 06:36:41 AM

Quote from: Lucius on April 07, 2018, 06:04:03 AM

I would not totally reject the theory about the seasons,it definitely affects people in many ways.Let's say that the winter is maybe time when people spend a lot of time in the indoors,and accordingly to that spend more time on computers/internet-but in the winter in the northern hemisphere we see that it is always the toughest part of the year for cryptocurrency.So it might be connected with Christmas-New Year holidays when people typically spend most of money in the year,and sell crypto for fiat.

On the other side at the end of the summer and early autumn people start to buy BTC just because have somewhere in the subconscious they could profit in few months and have more money for the holidays.Between all this is the summer and long-awaited annual vacations,time in the year when most people leave BTC for some time.

I can tell for myself that I'm much more active online in the winter,but how come the warmer weather I spend more and more time outdoors and I assume it is similar to most people(at least for those who have seasons).

Would winter also have an effect on mining, and the fact that miners are able to earn more in that season?

It can affect the miners in a way that they usually profit more from fees in that time,we see that increase of transactions increases the fees also.Last year fees are go so high that it was not profitable at all to send small amount of BTC.So that time of year is very lucrative for miners,but now when SegWit is more and more accepted,and Lightning Network is becoming closer to the wider use I think that miners should not have feast of fees anymore.The only way to check it out is to repeat the situation similar to the previous year.

jakagintiri

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Quote from: cryptoglia on April 06, 2018, 10:57:13 AM

Quote

Owing to the Earth's axial tilt, winter in the Northern Hemisphere lasts from the December solstice (typically December 21 UTC) to the March equinox (typically March 20 UTC), while summer lasts from the June solstice (typically June 21 UTC) through to the September equinox (typically September 23 UTC).

The next time we should expect to see some interesting BTC price highs should be between December and January... and the lows between June and October.

Miners can weigh in on this, perhaps...

Not understanding clearly between weather and bitcoin prices, actually has nothing to do with the weather anyway it can be done anytime it does not require enough power to sit at home and trade, it's not a barrier as the weather changes, To me your theory is not too just right, there is no point if the weather is nice but there is no trade.

player514

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Quote from: cryptoglia on April 06, 2018, 10:57:13 AM

Quote

Owing to the Earth's axial tilt, winter in the Northern Hemisphere lasts from the December solstice (typically December 21 UTC) to the March equinox (typically March 20 UTC), while summer lasts from the June solstice (typically June 21 UTC) through to the September equinox (typically September 23 UTC).

The next time we should expect to see some interesting BTC price highs should be between December and January... and the lows between June and October.

Miners can weigh in on this, perhaps...

I don't really think seasons have much to do with this. How are you stating that miners affect the price? Are you saying that the more miners there are, the higher the price can go? Or are you saying that the fewer there are, the higher the price goes? There aren't many grounds that you've made in your first statements.

I'll assume that you say that the more miners/mining is happening, the higher the price goes. However, the opposite of this happened last December. The mining fees were absolutely insane because there weren't enough miners to keep up with how many people were flowing into the whole crypto scene.

Tigorss

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One of the most relevant statistics to measure how Bitcoin does is transaction volume because there is a direct relationship between the number of transactions in the network and the number of network users. This amount is very important because "the value of the telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system" as per Metcalfe's law.

cryptoglia

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Quote from: talkbitcoin on April 07, 2018, 04:13:24 AM

to be totally honest with you i do NOT see any relationship between months (seasons) and bitcoin price whatsoever.
i know that there are a lot of theories about this connection and how some claim certain trends exist but in the end i consider them more of a coincidence than anything else.

and as a proof i think this year is a good proof. every year we had a drop in Jan. and Feb. and then price picked up in Mar. and April but this year nothing is happening!

The most notable price surges I have personally observed so far since 2013 have been in winter.

cryptoglia

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Quote from: Lucius on April 07, 2018, 06:04:03 AM

I would not totally reject the theory about the seasons,it definitely affects people in many ways.Let's say that the winter is maybe time when people spend a lot of time in the indoors,and accordingly to that spend more time on computers/internet-but in the winter in the northern hemisphere we see that it is always the toughest part of the year for cryptocurrency.So it might be connected with Christmas-New Year holidays when people typically spend most of money in the year,and sell crypto for fiat.

On the other side at the end of the summer and early autumn people start to buy BTC just because have somewhere in the subconscious they could profit in few months and have more money for the holidays.Between all this is the summer and long-awaited annual vacations,time in the year when most people leave BTC for some time.

I can tell for myself that I'm much more active online in the winter,but how come the warmer weather I spend more and more time outdoors and I assume it is similar to most people(at least for those who have seasons).

Would winter also have an effect on mining, and the fact that miners are able to earn more in that season?

Lucius

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I would not totally reject the theory about the seasons,it definitely affects people in many ways.Let's say that the winter is maybe time when people spend a lot of time in the indoors,and accordingly to that spend more time on computers/internet-but in the winter in the northern hemisphere we see that it is always the toughest part of the year for cryptocurrency.So it might be connected with Christmas-New Year holidays when people typically spend most of money in the year,and sell crypto for fiat.

On the other side at the end of the summer and early autumn people start to buy BTC just because have somewhere in the subconscious they could profit in few months and have more money for the holidays.Between all this is the summer and long-awaited annual vacations,time in the year when most people leave BTC for some time.

I can tell for myself that I'm much more active online in the winter,but how come the warmer weather I spend more and more time outdoors and I assume it is similar to most people(at least for those who have seasons).

1Referee

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Theories make sense until they don't. I am not going that deeply into these things because the thing here is that one event can shake everything up badly, in both positive or negative directions. Another thing is that people are always looking to connect dots to find peace with themselves that the market is either overbought or oversold. The more people focus on the short term, the more likely it is for them to end up on the wrong side of the fence. There are too many variables involved all playing an important role to take a certain market phase for granted. Let the market do what it needs to do, and people here focus on the long term, because that's what winners do. If you look at the market throughout the years, then sellers have been the losers, and on the way up last year, a lot short term traders as well.

DaMut

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everything can happen with it,
so i am not really sure about the date and else,but based on our history.
December's our peak and January's time for Bitcoin to start the bear.
might be,this year something different will happen ? because the price went down significantly from before.
or something similiar will happen with it ?

talkbitcoin

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All I know is that I know nothing.

to be totally honest with you i do NOT see any relationship between months (seasons) and bitcoin price whatsoever.
i know that there are a lot of theories about this connection and how some claim certain trends exist but in the end i consider them more of a coincidence than anything else.

and as a proof i think this year is a good proof. every year we had a drop in Jan. and Feb. and then price picked up in Mar. and April but this year nothing is happening!

dothebeats

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on April 06, 2018, 06:56:38 PM

I'd be more inclined to say rallies would start in May when weather starts becoming nice and warm (Northern Hemisphere), people are more positive in sunny weather and will likely also have a more optimistic view of the market.

While in most cases, May is often the start of stagnance and poor price performance, just like what happened in 2017. Personally, I' think that somewhere in the start of August or September, big price movements would be occurring and rallies would somehow be present, similar again to the previous runs. Idk why but traders are somehow afraid or lazy to trade during the summer season and tend to just go back when the weather is slowly shifting to the colder end of the spectrum.

Pursuer

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Quote from: cryptoglia on April 06, 2018, 10:57:13 AM

and the lows between June and October.

if anything the rises tend to happen during Summer which falls within June and October. so I guess if previous trends is your clue here then price should only rise during that time. anything else that may or may not happen is against the common trend and is unpredictable at this point.

B1tUnl0ck3r

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Quote from: MoonIsBlue on April 06, 2018, 06:56:38 PM

I'd be more inclined to say rallies would start in May when weather starts becoming nice and warm (Northern Hemisphere), people are more positive in sunny weather and will likely also have a more optimistic view of the market.

why not, if there is a nice weather this year... Grin

MoonIsBlue

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I'd be more inclined to say rallies would start in May when weather starts becoming nice and warm (Northern Hemisphere), people are more positive in sunny weather and will likely also have a more optimistic view of the market.

cryptoglia

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Quote

Owing to the Earth's axial tilt, winter in the Northern Hemisphere lasts from the December solstice (typically December 21 UTC) to the March equinox (typically March 20 UTC), while summer lasts from the June solstice (typically June 21 UTC) through to the September equinox (typically September 23 UTC).

The next time we should expect to see some interesting BTC price highs should be between December and January... and the lows between June and October.

Miners can weigh in on this, perhaps...

Topic: Bitcoin price, Mining and the Seasons (MY THEORY) (Read 192 times)