http://www.btcpredictions.com/Historic.php isn't looking very good right now. The predictions look almost like an exact opposite mirror image of what really happened today.
Topic: Bitcoin Price over next 24 hours (5/26/14 at 2:00pm EST) (Read 1562 times)
Wow I'm very surprised, the neural network was shockingly accurate! Maybe next time I'll be more inclined to believe it xD The one on the website shows the price staying the same for most of today and then rising back up to upper $500s in about 20-24 hours ish. We'll see what happens!
I think a correction is due. The skywards reaching scaffolding is built as high up now as it is it going to be in the coming near term time period. There has been lots of leverage used during this run up with and damn expensive leverage at that. Lots of Bitfinex traders (market leader in terms of USD volume by now) are going to close their leveraged long positions and the only way they can do that is of course by selling Bitcoin back into the market. However, I still think that their is too much positivity around at the moment for this the correction to prove itself to be too brutal, I reckon $530 - $540 would be a good place to start seeing how things look.
I am anticipating a choppy but overall gentle ride down to around $530 over the next couple of weeks, gentle in Bitcoin terms at least. Thereafter, I would be very surprised if Bitcoin didn't start rallying back up to $50 or so past the previous high. I don't think the primary bear market is through, but as I have been saying for some time, I reckon their is more upside to come in medium term than downside.
I am anticipating a choppy but overall gentle ride down to around $530 over the next couple of weeks, gentle in Bitcoin terms at least. Thereafter, I would be very surprised if Bitcoin didn't start rallying back up to $50 or so past the previous high. I don't think the primary bear market is through, but as I have been saying for some time, I reckon their is more upside to come in medium term than downside.
I'm starting to think you might be right, and my neural network's prediction might be right (ish) as well... I thought the price would have gone up by more by now. I'm still not confident enough to actually sell, but it will be very interesting to see if your prediction comes true.
Quote from: RockHound
Nice simple question - Good thread! I wouldn't mind seeing a price-correction too, hope it happens.
However, don't think it will and we will be heading $615-$620 range
However, don't think it will and we will be heading $615-$620 range
I'm glad you like the thread
And yeah I would have agreed with this several hours ago, but the fact that the price hasn't continued rising suggests to me that it might dip down a bit after all, though I think it will rise again after that, over $600. Every 15 minutes, starting with 1:15pm EST 5/26/2014
584.934039
583.533070
583.772256
578.121019
577.551975
581.931580
580.219792
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560.150252
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Nice simple question - Good thread! I wouldn't mind seeing a price-correction too, hope it happens.
However, don't think it will and we will be heading $615-$620 range
This is exactly why this rally might go on for a bit longer; people are still in disbelief that we're actually going up again.
Which is why nobody/not many will panic sell. Which is why the correction shouldn't prove to be a particularly brutal one. But for Bitcoin to keep going up, people have to keep pouring money into it. Nobody wants to be amongst the last buyers of a leg up which may explain why buying pressure is drying up. For Bitcoin to take another good leg up, it needs to correct. Fresh capital needs to be encouraged to enter the market.
I am anticipating a choppy but overall gentle ride down to around $530 over the next couple of weeks, gentle in Bitcoin terms at least. Thereafter, I would be very surprised if Bitcoin didn't start rallying back up to $50 or so past the previous high. I don't think the primary bear market is through, but as I have been saying for some time, I reckon their is more upside to come in medium term than downside.
This is exactly why this rally might go on for a bit longer; people are still in disbelief that we're actually going up again.
What do you guys think will happen to bitcoin price over the next 24 hours? I tend to think that the price is going to peek up above 600 and maybe fall back down to upper 500s a bit, but all of the technical analysis that I'm doing seems to indicate the opposite (going down to about $560).
A lot of you guys have seen my website (www.btcpredictions.com) where I use neural networks to try to predict bitcoin prices. I've been testing an improved version with an average error of 0.7395%, and both versions seem to believe that the price will fall to $560s. Even the longer term predictions are showing the price going down. Despite all of this, however, I still believe that the technical analysis is wrong. I think we will see prices rise.
I had my new NN make predictions for the average price over every 15 minute period for 24 hours starting at 1pm EST (a bit over an hour ago). I will post these below here.
But anyway what do you guys think will happen?
A lot of you guys have seen my website (www.btcpredictions.com) where I use neural networks to try to predict bitcoin prices. I've been testing an improved version with an average error of 0.7395%, and both versions seem to believe that the price will fall to $560s. Even the longer term predictions are showing the price going down. Despite all of this, however, I still believe that the technical analysis is wrong. I think we will see prices rise.
I had my new NN make predictions for the average price over every 15 minute period for 24 hours starting at 1pm EST (a bit over an hour ago). I will post these below here.
But anyway what do you guys think will happen?
I think a correction is due. The skywards reaching scaffolding is built as high up now as it is it going to be in the coming near term time period. There has been lots of leverage used during this run up with and damn expensive leverage at that. Lots of Bitfinex traders (market leader in terms of USD volume by now) are going to close their leveraged long positions and the only way they can do that is of course by selling Bitcoin back into the market. However, I still think that their is too much positivity around at the moment for this the correction to prove itself to be too brutal, I reckon $530 - $540 would be a good place to start seeing how things look.
I am anticipating a choppy but overall gentle ride down to around $530 over the next couple of weeks, gentle in Bitcoin terms at least. Thereafter, I would be very surprised if Bitcoin didn't start rallying back up to $50 or so past the previous high. I don't think the primary bear market is through, but as I have been saying for some time, I reckon their is more upside to come in medium term than downside.
I just ran a version with more hidden layer nodes, which gives a lower error generally (~0.59% in this case) and it gave this result on the same data (starting at 1:15pm)
589.819535
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568.264547
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576.628701
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580.579593
578.638999
574.568884
574.849460
573.260362
577.605372
573.979639
576.354487
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570.541206
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So you are selling and shorting then?
Nah - as I said in OP, I don't believe these predictions. I think the price is going to rise, but I think it is interesting that multiple predictive models all agree that prices will fall. If the price does go down I might be more inclined to believe it next time though. And either way, I'm sure the price will go up again after that. We seem to be heading towards a more upward trend now.
So you are selling and shorting then?
Every 15 minutes, starting with 1:15pm EST 5/26/2014
584.934039
583.533070
583.772256
578.121019
577.551975
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580.219792
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578.366127
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576.191675
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577.493996
580.422882
573.143345
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577.357011
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576.345993
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565.469679
555.658728
560.150252
560.773893
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558.073361
562.323059
At least $800 tomorrow
What do you guys think will happen to bitcoin price over the next 24 hours? I tend to think that the price is going to peek up above 600 and maybe fall back down to upper 500s a bit, but all of the technical analysis that I'm doing seems to indicate the opposite (going down to about $560).
A lot of you guys have seen my website (www.btcpredictions.com) where I use neural networks to try to predict bitcoin prices. I've been testing an improved version with an average error of 0.7395%, and both versions seem to believe that the price will fall to $560s. Even the longer term predictions are showing the price going down. Despite all of this, however, I still believe that the technical analysis is wrong. I think we will see prices rise.
I had my new NN make predictions for the average price over every 15 minute period for 24 hours starting at 1pm EST (a bit over an hour ago). I will post these below here.
But anyway what do you guys think will happen?
A lot of you guys have seen my website (www.btcpredictions.com) where I use neural networks to try to predict bitcoin prices. I've been testing an improved version with an average error of 0.7395%, and both versions seem to believe that the price will fall to $560s. Even the longer term predictions are showing the price going down. Despite all of this, however, I still believe that the technical analysis is wrong. I think we will see prices rise.
I had my new NN make predictions for the average price over every 15 minute period for 24 hours starting at 1pm EST (a bit over an hour ago). I will post these below here.
But anyway what do you guys think will happen?
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