Bitcoin Price Update for August 16, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
As the stagnation in the bitcoin markets intensifies once again, patience and discipline become a trader's most valuable tools. The lack of fundamental catalysts over the near term combined with a still murky technical picture on the medium to long term charts means it's every man for himself in these conditions. With that in mind, market marker's can create their own small scalp trades within a tight trading range like we are in now due to the size of their capital pool, however us normal traders need to be much more selective in conditions such as these so as to preserve capital to deploy in a more favorable environment.
Getting to the aforementioned technicals, today we are looking at the 12-hour chart once again for a closer inspection of the medium term outlook. To begin, we can see that price remains well within both the larger symmetrical triangle formation, as well as in the light blue pivot area, and continues to fill in volume profile between 550 - 600 $. Additionally, market structure looks like it is trying to shift to a more bullish pattern while SCMR continues to paint red candles, although it looks like we should see a potential bullish reversal over the next day or two as long as the 554.90 $ low on Stamp can hold. Finally, dynamic resistance is now sitting overhead at 575 $ while the near term OTE short zone sits in the key 580 - 600 $ area, making it difficult for bulls to push through those levels without some help.
Moving on, notice that despite persistent weakness over the past few days, the momentum oscillators are still not recharged enough for our liking. Willy is close to overbought but still has some room to run to the downside, RSI is showing a bullish divergence although it too has room to fall, and MACD has remained resilient but is now close to breaking back below the zeroline. Not only that, but the A/D line has flatlined, trading volumes are still favoring sellers, and there remains a porous volume profile setup down below 560 $.
Generally speaking, we are still in the neutral camp with an inclination to buy dips into our supportive buys zones. Despite the possibility that we could see a small countertrend move back up into the 580 - 600 $ resistance region, we would not chase that rally considering we still think we could get a shot in the 540 - 550 $ PT area in the not too distant future.
GLGT!
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