There is definitely a correlation between activity and price. If you have been around when the price were $1000+/BTC you would have experienced it yourself. This was one of the best forums on the internet during that time. The projects being launched were crazy and the giveaways were bold.
People were friendly and we participated in competitions and puzzles and treasure hunts. Now it is all business and scams and people are not having fun.
Topic: Bitcoin Price Vs Bitcointalk (Posts,Registrations,PageViews) (Read 825 times)
I think the activities at bitcointalk increases when there are some interesting/important events happening in bitcoin community. These events may or may not translate into price changes.
Don't know what activities are you talking about ? Is the potential activity you mean ? There is nothing special about the traffic on the forum due to influences of external sources in most of the cases.But something like Cryptsy scam was exposed and everyone wanted to be a part of discussion of it on this forum.In that case,we can say the driving force was the "activity" but that in no way affects the prices of bitcoin.It may look like it does but IMHO its just the market.i agree general chatter, altcoin chatter, blocksize chatter does not resonate to result in a change in bitcoin price. and most of the topics related to bitcoin price are reactive.. which by this i mean that the prices change and then people panic asking what the cause of the rise and fall and then hours later people google some news and then talk about it after the fact
I think the activities at bitcointalk increases when there are some interesting/important events happening in bitcoin community. These events may or may not translate into price changes.
Don't know what activities are you talking about ? Is the potential activity you mean ? There is nothing special about the traffic on the forum due to influences of external sources in most of the cases.But something like Cryptsy scam was exposed and everyone wanted to be a part of discussion of it on this forum.In that case,we can say the driving force was the "activity" but that in no way affects the prices of bitcoin.It may look like it does but IMHO its just the market.
I think the activities at bitcointalk increases when there are some interesting/important events happening in bitcoin community. These events may or may not translate into price changes.
looking at february 2015-november 2015 there is a correlation that when there is a surge of new users, then a higher price has shown to occur within a couple weeks after it.
thats just logic.. new users=new demand
as for the other data about post and page views.. well your not going get any valid correlation out of it because the topics are varied and any pattern is drowned out by the repetition of signature campaign posters who post any random waffle no matter whats happening to the price.
you might want to however dilute down the post/view data into categories like economics and speculation.. rather then the whole forum, and see if there is any better chance of getting some reasonable and relevant indicators
thats just logic.. new users=new demand
as for the other data about post and page views.. well your not going get any valid correlation out of it because the topics are varied and any pattern is drowned out by the repetition of signature campaign posters who post any random waffle no matter whats happening to the price.
you might want to however dilute down the post/view data into categories like economics and speculation.. rather then the whole forum, and see if there is any better chance of getting some reasonable and relevant indicators
Very cool,
You can see the spike in Activity on the forum around the time Gox failed
You can see the spike in Activity on the forum around the time Gox failed
Markets disregard forums... Markets go wherever they want whenever they need to 
Just like news don't move markets... people make markets move when they see news.
Just like news don't move markets... people make markets move when they see news.
I don't think there is any relationship between the Bitcoin price and the bitcointalk forum. The amounts of accounts created are mostly due to shill accounts and account farmers who are selling their accounts later on since they have some value. Also, signature campaigns make people click quite often on pages to see if they can post something. All this data is basically not of any value.
But you're implying that price is tied to popularity, which isn't necessarily true. Prices are more driven by the costs associated with mining a coin than anything else.
Relationship between bitcointalk.org activity and bitcoin price.
http://www.bitcoinrates.in/homebitcoin/
Normalization:
Bitcoin Price(1)
Bitcointalk Posts(1/100)
Bitcointalk Registrations(1/10)
Bitcointalk PageViews(1/10000)
EDIT:
Thinking behind this:
Since bitcointalk is the major source of bitcoin information, I expected that the popularity of bitcoin would be related to the increase/decrease in activity on the forum. Now if the popularity of bitcoin increases, more people are expected to know about bitcoin, maybe some like the idea and buy bitcoins leading to higher bitcoin prices.
I have just finished developing everything and started analyzing the charts. One can see some correlation between the number of registration here vs price especially on a larger time scale, but other correlations are not obvious if any.
Anyways I though it would be cool to check it , so shared here.
http://www.bitcoinrates.in/homebitcoin/
Normalization:
Bitcoin Price(1)
Bitcointalk Posts(1/100)
Bitcointalk Registrations(1/10)
Bitcointalk PageViews(1/10000)
EDIT:
Thinking behind this:
Since bitcointalk is the major source of bitcoin information, I expected that the popularity of bitcoin would be related to the increase/decrease in activity on the forum. Now if the popularity of bitcoin increases, more people are expected to know about bitcoin, maybe some like the idea and buy bitcoins leading to higher bitcoin prices.
I have just finished developing everything and started analyzing the charts. One can see some correlation between the number of registration here vs price especially on a larger time scale, but other correlations are not obvious if any.
Anyways I though it would be cool to check it , so shared here.
This forum has contributed a lot to the bitcoin community and for alt coins too, but i would not base on the number of registration because it does not show the real number of users.
This would have been a genius idea indeed if any of this would actually reflect the prices of the bitcoins.Would be more feasible for trading and predictions that way.I might have not got the chart relations correct (I'm statistically weak!)but the chart portrays how bitcoin prices are affected by the number of visitors and the posts per day or say per 3 months right ? How did you come up with the estimation ?Quite genius stuff there.
How could you related them ? Bitcoin price is based on supply-demand from the markets , and Bitcointalk is a simply a forum . Yes Bitcointalk helped Bitcoin to grow so much but I don't think the price have too much to do with it , and the supply-demand from Bitcointalk is nothing compared to the big exchanges .
Relationship between bitcointalk.org activity and bitcoin price.
http://www.bitcoinrates.in/homebitcoin/
Normalization:
Bitcoin Price(1)
Bitcointalk Posts(1/100)
Bitcointalk Registrations(1/10)
Bitcointalk PageViews(1/10000)
http://www.bitcoinrates.in/homebitcoin/
Normalization:
Bitcoin Price(1)
Bitcointalk Posts(1/100)
Bitcointalk Registrations(1/10)
Bitcointalk PageViews(1/10000)
I don't think Price is matters with bitcointalk, Bitcoin price is based upon the market supply and demand. No other things involve in these. Then halving and adoption will play some their part in bitcoin.
Relationship between bitcointalk.org activity and bitcoin price.
http://www.bitcoinrates.in/homebitcoin/
Normalization:
Bitcoin Price(1)
Bitcointalk Posts(1/100)
Bitcointalk Registrations(1/10)
Bitcointalk PageViews(1/10000)
http://www.bitcoinrates.in/homebitcoin/
Normalization:
Bitcoin Price(1)
Bitcointalk Posts(1/100)
Bitcointalk Registrations(1/10)
Bitcointalk PageViews(1/10000)
This is very interesting, but I don't see any correlation between the curves. Actually in the end it seems activity is dropping as the price is increasing...
Am I making any mistake?
...
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