Topic: Bitcoin price: with 12 years from nothing to maturity (Read 411 times)

there is no need to predict completely but at least predicting closer to what it can reach and the basis is the position per halving things that mostly happen constantly .

I also predicting the price for myself and that is something that i love doing each year, this challenged my capacity to wait and my ability to proceed each year .

It is very difficult to predict the price of Bitcoin in the next few years with certainty. However, if you pay attention to historical price trends to the fundamental analysis that underlies its price movements so far, of course the price of bitcoin continues to increase from year to year. Of course, one of the factors that pushed the price of bitcoin to rise is the matter of mass adoption.

What do you mean by full maturity? Bitcoin's full maturity is not to be based on its price. The price of Bitcoin does not mean adoption. The price could rise high while at the same time Bitcoin's use is declared illegal in many countries. This is possible. And this is not maturity.

Maturity should refer more to its global standing as a currency, to its adoption in actual stores and other businesses and their customers. It is not about the price. It is the use.

Bitcoin is still in its infancy until now. It is far from becoming mature.

Bitcoin price movements are always surprising, no one expected in 2021 Bitcoin could experience a very high increase. Even Bitcoin has broken
record highs several times, so now many people are starting to believe that Bitcoin has a bright future. Therefore, when entering the beginning of
2022 there was a bear market, quite a lot of people are taking advantage of the Bitcoin price drop as an opportunity to buy Bitcoin. Because learning
from the movement of Bitcoin over 12 years, we can conclude that how deep the price of Bitcoin fell, will always be able to go up again. And also
Bitcoin is showing more maturity, so no need to panic with the price of Bitcoin which is still under $40k, this situation is only temporary. Later Bitcoin
can definitely recover and will reach new ATH, so only people who have patience and have faith in the future of Bitcoin, who can benefit from Bitcoin.

Everything is all because of the adoption because it's a technology that can be adopted into every industry, every year there is a new trend new companies and new personalities coming in to cast their support and influence in the market, I believe in Fengshui and astrology but I cannot connect the price of Bitcoin to the Chinese zodiac, because of the volatility of the market, it can dip or crash or pump or improve anytime.

I think anything can happen in the crypto world, but it is difficult to predict with certainty the price of bitcoin in the future. If you look at the positive performance in 2021, you can convince the public that bitcoin's performance will be more mature until the end of the year. However, as we all know that the price of bitcoin is influenced by many factors so that in early 2022 the price of bitcoin has decreased to the level of $38k.

It is really cool to see what we already know, but proven with facts. I always said that in the long run bitcoin is a very profitable thing and there is absolutely nothing that could dethrone bitcoin for me in investment world, nowadays I feel ETH is a bit closer to my heart, the new ETH 2.0 is coming up one day and I am guessing at that moment my own flipping could happen and I could see myself having a bigger investment on ETH but it is all crypto and all the same.

Bitcoin is just surreal on how great it is to just hold it, I wish I held all of the bitcoins I have ever earned, would be super wealthy right now, but I can't focus on that and just need to focus on whatever I have right now, and what I might have in the future. If this keeps up, then I will be able to call myself wealthy one day, maybe not in a few years but definitely in a few decades.

Known facts but still its interesting to see their price at the end of every year and what it is going to be for this year. I don't think we are going to touch 60K in just a week of time because the price movement is in sideways for very long time and to be honest I expect a dump towards the last days and then it will continue to recover.

That seems to be the main idea for many people who are not aware of the fact that bitcoin always goes up. If you want to predict "when" then you are right that nobody will be able to predict that, we as the market (you and I and everyone else here is the reason why it goes up or down) decide it on the fly. When we hear a bad news we FUD and drop it, when we hear a great news we FOMO it and buy, but we are the ones that decide it.

So, when you want to try to predict what will happen in the future, you are trying to predict if people will buy or not. So that means you are not really doing something special with it, you are actually trying to predict us, which is doable if you are good enough. The main point is that, it would not be that much of a problem if you are only looking at long term and how it will go up, however it will be harder if you want to predict just this week.

The reason why some people loss is that they always think that they are already an expert even they are not. they always think that they can predict crypto base on their own analysis but they end up to lossing, We cannot predict crypto even in a short period of time so there is no way also to predict crypto 12 years from now.

Yeah, many people do not believe supernatural but that thing has been with us from a long time ago.
It is no problem if we do not believe in that because we think that is out of our imagination.
Or there are really some people who can see the signs from those planets and have the knowledge to explain the future.
We should use our knowledge to trade to make a profit but that can be our info and nothing to lose for us to have more knowledge.

I do not believe any supernatural thing at all, just because some planets are in some places in certain times it should not be telling anything about the future. Even signs are a bit more understandable since it is talking about the character of a person and not trying to predict the future per se, if you have enough sample size of people who are born at same time and can try to do polls around the world to millions of people about it, then they would give a good result which means it could be proven.

However, talking about the future and prices and profits all thanks to some space movements does not make sense to me at all. Hopefully we will see 1 million dollars in our life time, that is all I need to know, if that happens then things will be fine for me.

I do not know anything about astrology but I read in some local articles that humans can predict what can happen in the future and give warnings to others. Some people still believe in zodiac calculation or something like that.
You can say that is all related to the zodiac cycle and all the grey things that most people do not understand but I just believe that bitcoin can increase more than today, no matter how long the price can increase.
Maybe bitcoin needs more than 2 years or even longer to increase to $1,000,000 but it will surely reach that price.
With all of the predictions, we can only wait for what will happen with preparing ourselves and if you believe bitcoin will increase at the right time, you should prepare yourself.
Otherwise, you can end your journey in bitcoin right now and search for other opportunities.

Well that is true dude if keept our cryptocurrencies for 40 years definitely we will become rich, if we will just think as an investor for long term profit mindset definitely it will happen, that's why even I don't have that big capital i force my self to invest in cryptocurrencies cause i know it will also for me in the future.

Adoption is on the move and no one had really expected for Bitcoin to be this big considering that it has no even value when it had just started.What makes it good is on having that decentralized and anonymity features which did really make it to be popular and been gradually adopted and now it do gain some attention and we are moving forwards on global adoption which is something an inevitable thing to happen.
Expect that it would reach out new all time highs on future years to come as long recognition is there.

No one expect for the price of Bitcoin to reach this much not until adoption begin so for me, we are heading to that price and soon will be on the top of everything because Bitcoin is the new Gold of our era. We can have a better because of cryptocurrency, we are still lucky that we can freely use Bitcoin. Do your best and have more Bitcoin, this is the trend now.

It's hard to predict the bitcoin price accurately, let alone setting a maximum price of over 1 million dollars per bitcoin may sound impossible. but we do not know how far the price of bitcoin will continue to move in the next 5-10 years. however, I think the positive trend of bitcoin price will continue in the next few years. Therefore all possible prices could go forward and have room for a 100%-200% price increase.

That is what is so deceiving about the dollar, people still see the same dollars on their pockets and their bank accounts but the dollar of today is many times weaker than the dollar of that time, and the farther we go back to the past the stronger the dollar was, however we are reaching a critical point, people are slowly realizing this truth and are looking for alternatives, and whether they pick bitcoin or not the fact that one more person decides to not fully support fiat is one more step towards its eventual collapse.

I'm not an expert on the zodiac and things like that, but people relate the price of Bitcoin to everything, so I guess it was only a matter of time before someone would go in this direction (although it is possible that this is not the first time on the forum). Personally, I don’t believe it has anything to do with it, except for those looking for meaning in such things.

I don't think this period should be called maturity when it comes to Bitcoin, 12 years is simply too little time for something like this. It will take at least another ten years for Bitcoin to reach a certain degree of maturity, because we are still far from any major adaptation, and too few people even understand what Bitcoin is, not to mention that some use it in a completely wrong way.

Of course the OP wonders and concludes that the price will not rise more than x10, which implies that we should no longer hope for profits as has been the case in the past. This makes some sense, because it is not realistic that someone will earn x1000 by investing in BTC at current prices - we need to be realistic with some things.

Very good picture!
But it is not suitable for bitcoin nowadays. Unless a huge price crash happens, bitcoin can not be a very good investment in 2020s even with the best scenario (mass adoption, becoming the only currency of the world), because this scenario is already taken into account by many many people.

This picture is suitable for some other asset. This asset has to have one important (demand side) characteristic - it has to be unrecognized by (almost) everybody. In other words: it has to seem worthless like dust or bottle tops, electronic or not.

Really good investment smells like a joke. Nobody takes you seriously when you talk about it

Yeah, calculating the overall increase in bitcoin with what we had in the early days doesn't make sense to me. What we had in the early 4 years or so was way too much and it required very little money whereas what we are having right now is not that easy and requires a lot of capital. Not saying that we are not going up, but do not expect 20x yearly increase ever again, not even 10x per year looks that easy to be done ever again.

Take the last 4 years for example, had 1.10 times, 1.51 times, 1.45 times and last year was bull year with 4.44 times. Those are the realistic approaches and stuff like that could potentially happen in the future as well.

Additionally here is the hyperinflation. We all know how inflation is affected by multiple countries. Since Bitcoin can solve it, we can consider it also a reason why Bitcoin is still here and value keeps increasing.
Long term goal for Bitcoin is always important, we don't know how much Bitcoin price can go up or down.

The lesson of the past will still guide us to the future despite doubts price is still hitting landmarks.

The dollar value of bitcoin now is more appreciated IMO because I don't know how much the dollar has been devalued from like 10 years ago but I understand that the demand for the dollar is still high and it could be a hedging instrument with bitcoin.

And by that time, dollars has already been affected a lot by inflation. I believe by that time if bitcoin is still on track by that year then it's going to be that much expensive as opposed to inflation since we know how bitcoin's character goes against the inflation of fiat.

True, we will never know the highest price that bitcoin can make because of its potential. Although sometimes we doubt and we feel negative when the market isn't going according to what we like.

Nice one. We should always remind ourselves that we are still early birds. Those who just came to know about Bitcoin today should not be discouraged that the price is already high. They should instead be encouraged to buy because the future is even brighter than today. People should not compare the price of today with yesterday. They will only feel less interested. They should compare the price of today with tomorrow. They will feel like striking while the iron is hot.

Let us all be remembered as the brave ones who took the risk. Our children and grandchildren will be very thankful for our actions today.

Beautiful astronomical statistics on Chinese towers, of course you will not find much of those who believe in Chinese astronomical towers but we can say through this statistic that it is fun to see bitcoin develops a small child until he becomes great tendon in the world of money and economy, Bitcoin is the big master now but it did not Up to maturity until this moment.
For the Bitcoin price is very possible to see it at  1 million$ in the future but I personally do not wish it because at that time will become a dream that is difficult to get, and then has arrived at the mission and started the stage of loss and fading.

12 years is a long time, during this time the Dollar has not stayed as one but now is a lesser version of its previous self.   The US dollar of 2009 is not the US dollar of 2021, we dont live in that fixed value world anymore.

dont place any limits on BTC when we lack that certainity in any regard

This thread gives the best of the value difference between years. The same level of variation could happen after years. After this same time period we can see similar level of growth. The same is being mentioned through a small meme post.

Bitcoin has gone so far and i don't even know if bitcoin will certainly mature or how far its maturity price will be. As long as its making significant price growth from time to time, despite of the inevitable occurrence of price corrections, then it will be very good to see. However, it doesn't cross my mind that astrology is something to do with bitcoin price movement. Well, if it really does, then i think its good as we have more other bases now for price prediction. One thing i am certain, as long as its adoption continues and never stops, then we will witness more price increase in the coming days and months.

Corrections are part of every market; if you have noticed even centralized stock or government's bonds are finding big dips time to time for various reasons (change in policy or profit booking or etc). So, there will be no wonder that bitcoin got crashed many time in the past and it may face again in near future as well but we can ignore all these as overall trend is positive.

Limited supply must be the core reason why we are having bitcoin at current levels. Still, we cannot ignore its community. Stronger community must have been playing support role like people were continuing their holding even among big crashes. These 12 years are just a starting phase, we need to enter into phase only here after where recognizing by governments might be playing vital role.

There are many who think there is no limit to how Bitcoin can climb price wise.
Bitcoin is still in its infancy and can attract much more attention, I posted before
that there are only going to be 21,000,000 coins, its limited and people in general
have yet to wake up to the benefits it offers and its superiority to any other investment.


These numbers are very interesting but the reference to the animals and colours
is irrelevant really.

I, although I find astrology silly, like all superstitions, find the analysis you make amusing.


Regarding this point, I disagree. As poyaa87 points out, the same was said before, and it is obvious that there has to be a limit just as it is logical that the returns are lower as the price and market cap grows, as you very well point out, but if you take into account that the global total wealth is $420T and Bitcoin currently has only $1T of market cap, it is clear that it can make more than 20x which is the limit you put.

12 years only, that's how much it grew. It may not even be the mature price, it still can grow.

But BTC had been crashing over and over. Its been buried several times as we see there are obituaries of it. There will be another when it's going to dip once again but every time there is a dip, it gives another room for growth. The room is all because of its scarcity of BTC, there is nothing like that because GOLD is can be suppressed by regulators and the big institutions.

That is the reason many people see Bitcoin as an investment cause it is increasing year by year and surely you can have profit for sure, we're not be surprised if Bitcoin will reach 1,000,000 USD someday.

Anything is possible but sometimes we need to be realistic in looking at how things will come into fruition.
Because some people will have high expectations and if those expectations are not met, usually, they will spread fud in the market.
But what bitcoin achieved up to this day, is really considered a very big milestone for crypto history.
We can't really say impossible these days, but be conservative as we are talking tons of money here.
It is good to be optimistic with the market, but we also need to consider the reality of things so we will not get disappointed.

Agreed, when it comes to bitcoin it is better to let those thoughts behind us because the whole history of bitcoin is full of a bunch of things that bitcoin was not supposed to do and that it did anyway.

Bitcoin could or could not reach that price in the future but to categorically say that it will not happen is a mistake, especially when the price is not so far away, everything will depend on how high the price goes up during this cycle, if we reach something like 200k then one million could be possible during the next cycle but if it is closer to 100k then we may need two bull cycles before we could see that price.

How painful it is to look at the price below $ 1 for bitcoin and now I open CMC and just can't believe that the price is more than $ 60 thousand. The author is right that bitcoin may well rise to unthinkable and astronomical values, it only takes time.

I have to say, I used zodiac signs and colors only as a metaphor here - to make more easy to remember these years and think about them. Another metaphor could be the human life circle: saying that bitcoin becomes teenager.
Really I do not think that bitcoin starts to behave differently because of its "teen years".

The only reason I afraid the hodl model (that has excellelntly worked until now) will no longer succeed, is the maturity problem - the one million usd per bitcoin is already near enough to hinder profits of hodl-model.
 

What kind of astrology is this? A Chinese's one? Because, I heard their astrology is basically based on animals. How often this will repeat? For example, the first one (tiger, red) will come again or not? If it will come again means after how many other phases?

I always welcome different interpretations and perspectives and this time you have brought up astrology based one. The only thing, you must have included is some reference link, I really want to check and project these into the near future because like most others here, I am too keen on knowing the future rather than just getting know about the past.

I have seen people were predicting bullion markets based on moon signs. Not common everywhere but few signal providers include moon signs to justify/support their predictions.

Market cap means absolutely nothing and whatever number it shows is not an indication of what the price can or can not be. Not to mention that people were saying the exact same thing as you are saying to day back in 2016 when price was $600. They said it is impossible for price to reach something like $20k because the market cap will be huge!!! And yet bitcoin reached $20k and now it has surpassed $60k too without needing any big "world leaders" promoting it or anything crazy like that!

Reaching 1 mil per bitcoin seems impossible for next year because the marketcap won't be have so much gain to reach that price, it only could happen if the big world leaders promotes bitcoin to their country but it's something that sounds impossible to happen.

Having an astrology analysis to bitcoin price is quite interesting though. I don't know what is behind it and how the analysis goes but you should put 1 or 2 years ahead you predict price so it will be more quite interesting.
You could also do it with alts and create a continous thread, i'm sure many people will watch it 

I never traded using astrology either however if you guys are ever on crypto Twitter there is some girl there which made tons of money trading Bitcoin using astrology. No idea if it’s real because it’s possible she could of deleted some of her unsuccessful predictions however some of them turned out to be true.

She didn’t necessarily predict a price or a direction but she would give a date, like 6 months into the future and on that particular day Bitcoin either had a huge bullish or bearish day. And it was exactly on that day that she predicted. No idea if it was just luck but maybe astrology has something to do with trading.

Way to trick me into reading pseudo-astro-TA by leaving it out of the title ha!

What's interesting, from my own pseudo-familiarity of that calendar:
1. The first cycle happened in the year of the Tiger. Typically the year of maximum economic spurt. But because the tiger is cruel and forceful, the boom must come at the expense of others. A new cycles looms every 12 years... the next Tiger comes Feb next year, a few months from now. Here's the caveat: it's the water element, so it's the most sedate of the tigers.

2. The monkey is supposed to be chaos, neither good nor bad, but extremes in either way. 2016 was pretty benign in this regard.

Perhaps this, indeed, is the full maturity of Bitcoin. I don't think so though. Many surprises unseen en route.

Are you an astrology expert or something?
I've never seen someone to make analysis of the Bitcoin price based on zodiac signs.
We already know that it is almost impossible for the Bitcoin price to hit 1 million dollars.You just need common sense and basic understanding of economy and finance.There's no need to be expert in astrology or numerology in order see this conclusion.
Why don't you create a horoscope for Bitcoin?That would be interesting.
I guess that the future of Bitcoin is aligned by the stars.Everything is determined and we are all a bunch of puppets that have no agency and autonomy.The stars are what controls our lives,so we have to trust the astrologists more than any other experts and scientists.

It is interesting to look at this zodiac circle:

31.10.2009 0.001 usd
31.10.2010 0.20 usd (+ 200 times), Tiger, red
31.10.2011 3.19 usd (+ 15.95 times), Rabbit, green
31.10.2012 11.20 usd (+ 3.51 times), Dragon, yellow
31.10.2013 216.00 usd (+ 19.29 times), Snake, blue
31.10.2014 348.67 usd (+ 1.61 times), Horse, black
31.10.2015 311.24 usd (+ 0.89 times), Sheep, white
31.10.2016 686.24 usd (+ 2.20 times), Monkey, grey
31.10.2017 5734.00 usd (+ 8.36 times), Rooster, brown
31.10.2018 6309.11 usd (+ 1.10 times), Dog, purple
31.10.2019 9550.60 usd (+ 1.51 times), Pig, pink
31.10.2020 13803.41 usd (+ 1.45 times), Rat, orange
31.10.2021 61343.90 usd (+ 4.44 times), Ox, beige.

Every year is unique, and they together form almost eight orders of magnitude (100 000 000 times) increases (+4.5 times or +350% per year, on average). The maximum rise potential from 0.001 usd is ca nine orders of magnitude (1 000 000 000 times) in nowadays purchasing power because there is no more money in the world 

I think, one thing is sure:
Bitcoin price has no potential to rise more than approximately one order of magnitude (10  times). The maximum price can not significantly exceed 1 000 000 dollars per bitcoin in nowadays purchasing power even with best scenario (mass adoption, becoming the currency of the world). We can say that bitcoin price has achieved (almost) full maturity in just 12 years - eight from nine orders of magnitude.
This means that there will be no price gain per year comparable to 2020-2021 (or the 2009-2021 average) without huge price crash - no room for 300% or higher price rises per year (in nowadays purchasing power) from present level.