BITCOIN RALLY LOSING STEAM IN $420S GOING INTO THE WEEKEND

uki

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Quote from: helloeverybody on February 20, 2016, 06:37:23 AM

rally? or possibly a new bottom as we approach the halfing. im expecting it to creep higher as the next few months pull the halfing even closer. That combined with a fix for this blocksize debate should send us skywards.

Halving is yet relatively far away, so I wouldn't exaggerate its influence. It is still almost five months away. For now, I belive it is a local speculation pump (a small one) that should soon run its course.
And then we should correct a bit, and see if we are still above $415. If this is the case, it means we moved one step higher from the bottom of last summer.

helloeverybody

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rally? or possibly a new bottom as we approach the halfing. im expecting it to creep higher as the next few months pull the halfing even closer. That combined with a fix for this blocksize debate should send us skywards.

2015Bubble

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wich rally?

oh you mean monthly fluxation..

cooldgamer

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Personally I think we've got a little bit left before we hit a stall. I think the next resistance zone we'll be looking at is the $440 range after the buy pressure is balanced out, but not quite ready for a fall after a rally of this size. I'm still long for the moment, but cautiously.

That said, we were able to get through the 428 resistance point we found last time with little issue, so I think we've still got a bit going for us.

1Referee

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Quote from: Denker on February 20, 2016, 04:33:21 AM

And we continue moving up, at least for the moment.
425 already.A bit surprising imo as I also thought we would go sideways or a bit down, as usual at weekends.

It just shows that no matter how much TA you are doing, the price is can still move on its own in the complete other direction. I really believe we will head towards $450 first before seeing a small correction.

uki

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Quote from: Denker on February 20, 2016, 04:33:21 AM

And we continue moving up, at least for the moment.
425 already.A bit surprising imo as I also thought we would go sideways or a bit down, as usual at weekends.

I also find it a bit surprising, as indicated above. The alternative reading to the one I posted above would be: we broke out of the horizontal channel at $415 and came back to test the new support. That would be breakout with conifrmation. However, I don't like that second scenario as there is nothing to support further such a rally in mid-term.

Denker

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And we continue moving up, at least for the moment.
425 already.A bit surprising imo as I also thought we would go sideways or a bit down, as usual at weekends.

SFR10

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Actually the signs are really in favor of us and I would like it to stay the same and not to crate another bubble that will burst after some times. Hope this range will be the new support level for some time until we head into the halving phase ($424.90 at the moment) as any other factor that come to push it further up will most likely have a temporary effect only.

afbitcoins

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Quote from: bitcoinmarkets on February 19, 2016, 09:00:58 AM

Nice analysis which makes a pleasant change on this forum

Enjoyed reading the link about arbitrage on futures price.

If bitcoin falls for a while it might start looking like a cup n handle.

Yakamoto

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I think that the recent increase that took us beyond $400 was good enough for the week, since anything growing more rapidly would be considered a bubble and there would probably be a major selloff going into next week.

Being above $420 is fine with me.

richardsNY

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It's not really losing steam. I am quite sure that the price will continue to go up after a short break. You can't expect the price to only go up without some calmer moments.

xslugx

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Quote from: coldbound on February 19, 2016, 03:09:04 PM

If we manage to go sideways for a few days I think we will see another leg up. Otherwise it looks a bit droopy.

It will drop a bit, I just opened a short Wink

But btc will rise again, up and down, up and down always Wink

uki

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Quote from: bitcoinmarkets on February 19, 2016, 09:00:58 AM

thanks for nice charts.
The first chart, I quoted above, shows perfectly the current situation. We are within a horizontal channel between $350 and $415. And we will stay there until we are very close to halving, or something important happens, e.g., agreement on the size of the block. Horizontal trends are boring, because potentially nothing happens, but day-traders may play it, e.g., from the mid-line of the horizontal channel at around $380 till its upper bound. That is why, I think we go back to the channel now, and potentially move back to $380s.

coldbound

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If we manage to go sideways for a few days I think we will see another leg up. Otherwise it looks a bit droopy.

bitcoinmarkets

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It's been an exciting week for bitcoin. A really nice rally from the $370 support level over $50 up to $420. This is the same spot where we ran into some resistance last month and it could be a nice place for us to go sideways for a bit.

Let's look at futures premiums now:

Finally the discounts are gone. After a solid month of an inverted forward curve there's now premiums across the board on OKCoin's contracts, very healthy to see.

Arbitrageurs of the cash and carry type are rejoicing: opportunities are returning. Don't forget to check out this bitcoin futures arbitrage guide where he shows you how to profit from this.

Another thing worth noting is how Bitfinex USD margin has been changing over time. Check out this chart from BFXData

You can see that the rates for borrowing USD on the largest Western exchange in Bitcoin are extremely low. This makes margin-longing bitcoin very cheap and attractive, which is rocket fuel.

Below we see why the rates are so low, it's because there's been a lot of people closing positions over the past month:

So everything is looking healthy for the moment. Bitcoin is in a nice range, and currently has had a rally that is losing a bit of momentum, but with lots of room to go up as well still.

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