Topic: Bitcoin Reality-Failure-Reset (Read 47 times)

Hello

Please note, I am not here to spread any FUD, or influence you to make any decisions regarding BTCBitcoin.
I just would like to express my views on bitcoin's current and future and if you are reading this, please do so with an open mind.

Exchanges
Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, BitGet, Kraken, these name's are household to the Cryptocurrency community right?

Market Makers
B2C2, Jump Trading, Cumberland, Alameda Research, Galaxy Digital, , GSR, Jane Street
These name's are unknown to the 90% of traders, the 90% of traders who loose their money...
Alameda sound's familiar due to its link to FTX.
These are the so called "Whales", the Market Makers of Crypto...

Mining
The date is 09th May, we are at record level hash rates 329,125,648 TH/s but Bitcoin's price is $28k
The halving is 1 year away, the network has never been stronger, but the price is going lower...

Correlations
So I have recently returned to trading derivates after failing 3 times in the past, which is why I am making this post cause as of recent I have managed to make some observations.
Bitcoin sometimes correlates to the DXY, NASDAQ, SP500, Luna Cycles, Technical Analysis....
The biggest question for me was the Luna cycles... but we will come back to this.

Regulation
Governments won't accept Bitcoin as an official currency but they will allow futures contracts on it...
Doesn't something need to have value in order for it too be traded? Gold, Copper, Money...
What other purpose does the value of bitcoin hold other than a form of currency?

Now let me some up everything...
Over 19 million bitcoins in circulation, hash rate's are at record levels, and mining has zero profitability for the average person,
Who can afford to buy 900 BTC which is being mined daily? Whales... Whales are large investors, they don't have time to do technical analysis all day...
Investors (whales) provide capital to the Market Makers whom are regulated and use the Exchanges to provide on-exchange liquidity to move the market.
Market Makers will use different methods such as hedging against the DXY, which is where we see the inverse correlation, or the SP500 , and then the guy who loves astrology decided to use Luna cycle's in his algorithm. I wont dwell on this...
FAILURE 1 : Bitcoin's failure was that the blockchain got too big/too popular before it could be forked to be ASIC resistant.  

Mining Farms are either owned/funded by Market Makers & Investors,
The Market Makers are essentially the treasury and the investors are essentially the people who really control the world (Rothschild, Rockafella, Etc)
BITCOIN, in my opinion is way more high risk than the U.S Dollar

The value you pay on SPOT, is probably in no way related to what exchanges and market makers are paying,
BITCOIN is over priced in my opinion, because market makers cannot buy it at cost and sell it at cost: miners, exchanges, market makers all have to make money.

FAILURE 2 : Bitcoin's spot price is already over inflated.

BITCOIN's Reset...
Now history tell's us that all global currency's collapse eventually, we can see the dollar failing right now,
The same people who control the dollar, control Bitcoin (CME for example), so they apply the same principals too it,
BITCOIN futures are allowed but BITCOIN cannot be recognized as a CURRENCY because then general FOREX/CURRENCY rules will have to apply,
such as the need for CIRCUIT BREAKERS. So this is a grey area for Bitcoin... Market Makers are the only ones who currently benefit from this crypto economy.
Now... Bitcoin will reset much faster because its market cap grew much faster and also the supply is limited.
Eventually I think bitcoin will crash slowly once its reaches 21 million, that will be the transfer from the whales to the public.
By then it will have almost zero value because there is nobody to provide liquidity to give the coin's an actual price.
Maybe then only will Bitcoin get banned or finally acknowledge as a currency.  
Without the market makers there to buy and sell bitcoin at every second 365days a year, will bitcoin be able to reach levels like 28000?

Lets say bitcoin doesn't get banned,
Will it still the public still have confidence in it after all the pain was done by market makers?
Forking it too become ASIC  resistant now, or in the end is pointless...
Just like how the U.S Dollar is being challenged by new and other currency's,
Maybe we will see another form of crypto/alternate currency come into the world.

Blockchain technology actually helps the government track us even more than they do with our phones....
Is the CBDC going to be better for the people or better for the government?

People hodling since the early low's most probably lost their wallets, the few that didn't will someday benefit greatly.

Bitcoin still has a decade or two and we will see higher highs and more higher highs... but a 3k bitcoin will come too.

Im still going to buy bitcoin at 12k later this year. I will buy 4 BTC, and i plan on selling it at the next bull run before the halving event.

I know this will be criticized, but this post is more realistic than a $1M price prediction for BTC.

R.I.P HAL FINNEY !!!