You can't put crypto-currencies back in the bottle, it doesn't mean Bitcoin solely defines the future of crypto-currencies.
Also it is too late to say that crypto-currencies are not changing the world. They already have to some extent. I think you are meaning to say we shouldn't expect Bitcoin to create a nirvana of anonymous, tax-free, smaller government,
less capture of the government and money by the impossibility of the real democracy, etc.. If so, even the outcome on those is to some (minor or major depending how we view the issues) degree dependent on design decisions for Bitcoin which you are surely lacking depth of knowledge about.
If you want to think about the basics, you need to think about the technical design of Bitcoin, what could be different and the impact those differences would make. Only a very astute programmer who is also economist who is also a proven internet marketer, who is also well researched on the current trends of the world, could really make such insights.
So far in my discussions on the forums, most (if not nearly 99%) of all people are unable to comprehend the technical design of Bitcoin and the implications. I am including in that 99% the Bitcoin developers themselves and most of the commentators who think they are knowledgeable about the block chain.
The author of the OP clearly doesn't have a deep understanding of the real issues at hand. And it would be silly for me to think I could start an interesting discussion, because all that will happen if I will be scorned and misunderstood, even if I wrote a library in this thread.
... my current thinking is absent government killing it or a killer altcoin, Bitcoin adoption slows once all of those who are tech savvy are in. If someone finds a way to make Bitcoin super easy for people like my mother, then the adoption could continue all the way into the entire population, because for example my mom eventually adopted Paypal. But here is the pertinent revelation,
she has no reason to switch from Paypal, it already serves the purposes she needs from an electronic currency. Let that
thud sink in.
She and most average people will refuse to buy a speculative asset.One caveat is to note not all citizens in all developing countries can be merchants with Paypal, so this is a potential market opportunity, but other than for international money transfers so far I see no other mainstream Bitcoin adoption whatsoever in this market segment. Note the recent sending of Bitcoin for typhoon victims is an example where Paypal probably would have failed us, as it is difficult to withdraw from Paypal in the Philippines (only certain banks accepted, only certain types of accounts at those banks, and in general one can not be receiving payments as a merchant). Also the ability to side-step China's capital controls by buying BTC.
Yet none of them (save bank account) is sanctioned by law. I believe Bitcoin will soon join this group of de facto used technologies.
Sorry the latter doesn't follow from the former, meaning de facto adoption of technology has nothing to with that it is or isn't sanctioned by law. And the latter is impossible (with 10 minute blocks, non-zero transaction fees, etc). Reality check.
While leavening the system, it does away with fiat money (including debt), and we will have a quite interesting new world when all is completed.
We all wish that was true, but it is
in fact impossible, at least the current design of Bitcoin.
I would rather you look at Bitcoin as potentially the first stepping stone in that direction, as Friendster which led to Myspace which led to Facebook. Whether Bitcoin will be modified (unlikely due to vested interests), offchain takes over (possibly), the government will take over (most likely in my analysis), or an altcoin will outcompete (less likely) remains to be seen.