Bitcoin stabilizing around $15. | Bitcointalksearch.org

hawks5999

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Quote from: Nagle on June 26, 2011, 12:11:29 AM

After some churn, and a big influx of Bitcoins as people pull their balances out of Mt. Gox, we're back around $15 again.

This is good. A stable, boring currency is a useful currency.

Make up your mind. Is it a useful currency or a ponzi scheme like your website says or a "pyramid schemes, tulipomania, bucket shops, pump and dump" like your Bitcoin Discussion post says? you seem bipolar and therefore like an amateur finance type.

iopq

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Quote from: Vandroiy on June 24, 2011, 04:10:36 PM

Quote from: Meman on June 24, 2011, 09:09:19 AM

(...) between the dificulty increase and a possible influence on the BTC price.

How would difficulty have an influence on BTC price?

because we've been producing more than 6 blocks an hour, so now the supply will go down to 6/hr instead of the greater amount we've been having

Nagle

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After some churn, and a big influx of Bitcoins as people pull their balances out of Mt. Gox, we're back around $15 again.

This is good. A stable, boring currency is a useful currency.

SmokeAndMirrors

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Bitcoins will be stable once it pushes all other currencies out of the image.

Tronlet

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Quote from: Vanquistador on June 24, 2011, 10:48:09 PM

Quote from: Tronlet on June 24, 2011, 05:17:28 PM

Quote from: tomcollins on June 23, 2011, 07:23:51 AM

I'm guessing a lot of people have money or BTC stuck at Mt. Gox now. Once people who were actually trading get back going, we'll see where the market takes it. $15 is just a sign of no volume.

Less volume typically means more fluctuation, doesn't it? Because individual trades have more of an effect.

Only if there are large trades. It seems that TH limits the bid/asks to 100 limit.

200, actually, but yeah, that makes sense. Thanks.

Vanquistador

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Quote from: Tronlet on June 24, 2011, 05:17:28 PM

Quote from: tomcollins on June 23, 2011, 07:23:51 AM

I'm guessing a lot of people have money or BTC stuck at Mt. Gox now. Once people who were actually trading get back going, we'll see where the market takes it. $15 is just a sign of no volume.

Less volume typically means more fluctuation, doesn't it? Because individual trades have more of an effect.

Only if there are large trades. It seems that TH limits the bid/asks to 100 limit.

Tronlet

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Quote from: tomcollins on June 23, 2011, 07:23:51 AM

I'm guessing a lot of people have money or BTC stuck at Mt. Gox now. Once people who were actually trading get back going, we'll see where the market takes it. $15 is just a sign of no volume.

Less volume typically means more fluctuation, doesn't it? Because individual trades have more of an effect.

hawks5999

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^^^^^^^^^^^+1^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ for a proper understanding of stable.

On the difficulty/miners/exchange side I was going to make a similar argument but the truth is that prior to this difficulty change >10/hr were being produced. Now it is down around 9/hr with the difficulty targeting 6. If difficulty gets it down to 6 there will be fewer coins produced by about 40%.
If the difficulty misjudges the supply of new hashes on the network and the supply remains high... well the difficulty will have it's work cut out.

Reminds me of:

"Programming today is a race between software engineers striving to build bigger and better idiot-proof programs, and the Universe trying to produce bigger and better idiots. So far, the Universe is winning."

-Rick Cook

Vandroiy

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Quote from: Meman on June 24, 2011, 09:09:19 AM

(...) between the dificulty increase and a possible influence on the BTC price.

How would difficulty have an influence on BTC price? You got it the wrong way 'round, man. Price determines difficulty.

Also, the amount of BTC available to exchanges is based on production rate, and difficulty adapts to keep that constant. Miners might as well be Satoshi secretly writing magical BTC bucks with his quantum computer, the market would not change as long as the effective minting rate does not change.

Edit: oh, @topic: please use the word "stable" when more than two months have passed. Normal people will shake their head when one says "stable" because the market didn't explode in antimatter fireworks for a day.

Meman

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Quote from: marvinmartian on June 24, 2011, 08:25:32 AM

I predict that the price of bitcoins MUST rise in order to keep pace with the rising difficulty level.

Hard to say. The higher the difficulty, the more miners will stop mining or stop buying new equipment. So there should be less BTC offered on exchanges. This will rise the BTC price, if(!) the demand for BTC's stays constant. There may also be a time gap (some days) between the dificulty increase and a possible influence on the BTC price.

marvinmartian

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Difficulty level will play a big role. It's ironic that Mt. Gox is going to re-open the same day difficulty finally crests 1 mega.

I predict that the price of bitcoins MUST rise in order to keep pace with the rising difficulty level. I contend that the recent spike to $30 was correlated to the recent huge jumps in difficulty.

The miners of Arrakis will have their day. ;-)

Tronlet

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The stat displayer you're using is ridiculously zoomed out in terms of min/max, as people have previously stated.

Note how jagged and unpredictable it is once you zoom in a bit.

Alex Beckenham

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As others have alluded to, once Mt Gox re-opens prices are going to go nuts.

I reckon there are so many people that have no idea if the reopening will mean prices drop sharply or skyrocket, that it will likely swing wildly.

Elokane

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Truth is a consensus among neurons www.synereo.com

There were a few days where the price on MtGox was stable at 19-20. This is meaningless. :/

frutza

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That was the day when the big players were in vacation, or busy with other things Grin

hugolp

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Radix-The Decentralized Finance Protocol

Quote from: Synaesthesia on June 23, 2011, 07:40:53 AM

Bitcoin world, where one day of stability is a big deal Cheesy

frutza

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At this time, the success of Bitcoin is driven by speculation not its use for payments. Speculation is most profitable when the markets fluctuate a lot, and less profitable when the markets are stable. In a (rather small) economy like Bitcoin, it is still possible for a few players with lots of liquidity to move the market at will, so please do expect a lot of fluctuation when MtGox comes back. It will take a while until MtGox will regain trust, but once that happen, the bubble will return. Ride it wisely!

Synaesthesia

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Bitcoin world, where one day of stability is a big deal Cheesy

tomcollins

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I'm guessing a lot of people have money or BTC stuck at Mt. Gox now. Once people who were actually trading get back going, we'll see where the market takes it. $15 is just a sign of no volume.

stakhanov

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Not that flat actually

phorensic

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One thing to note is that the chart on Tradehill's site is scaled differently than most other trading charts. If you notice it starts at 0 at the bottom. This can make it look artificially flat compared to something like SierraChart that is auto-scaling the min/max range.

hawks5999

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all numbers right now are useless since the majority of people can't get to their accounts at mtgox.

dinzy

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There is still around a 12% change from high to low which is an order of magnitude higher than a crazy day for 'real' currency.

Bit_Happy

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A Great Time to Start Something!

Stable does have advantages Nagle. However, BTC went from ~$1.5 to $32 in a little over one month, so more wild days are going to happen soon. That is part of human nature (greed vs fear) and cannot be changed, or avoided, after such a sharp run up.
It is stable right now, since the action is really still based at MtGox which resumes in < 24 hours.

Buy Low Sell High | Good luck figuring out what the Low and High will be.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

It took a few days for traders, merchants and miners to move funds and bitcoins to TradeHill. Volume picked up only today.

When Mt Gox gets back online, prices may firm up, provided that the site exhibits solid security.

Nagle

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Bitcoin today (USD, TradeHill)

We're getting past the drama phase. That's what a useful currency is supposed to look like - flat and boring. When the chart looks like that, merchants can price products in Bitcoins. Merchants typically deposit their day's receipts in a bank once each day. If the price of Bitcoins is steady over the course of a day, merchants can convert to a real currency once a day, pull out the cash, and put it in their bank account.

There's a reasonable amount of market depth behind that, too. At first, trading on Tradehill was very thin, but now there's a a few thousand Bitcoins of market depth on both the bid and ask sides. That's not huge by financial standards, but it's enough to allow some modest real-world businesses to convert their daily take.

Back in the Mt. Gox era, we were seeing $30 and $8 in the same week. That had to stop.

This is real progress.

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