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I agree with a lot of your reasoning about points that you are making @tiCeR especially when it comes to the difficulties of making inferences from the information that we know versus the information that we don't know, so no matter what, there is a lack of solid evidence if we are going to conclusively draw inferences on the non-movement of coins - yet at the same time, I largely come to the opposite conclusion as you in regards to my own thinking that the number of lost coins are likely higher than the estimates, and you seem to be coming to the conclusion that fewer coins are lost than the various inferences. First, personally, I believe that Satoshi's coins are likely to be lost "on purpose."
Secondly, I believe that a lot of bitcoiners likely believe that they have coins, but they are not in a frequent of enough practice of accessing their coins to realize that they really don't have the coins that they believe that they have.
Third, I believe that a lot of folks are not very good at their plans of successorship, so many of them have not adequately communicated the successorship of their coins, and even if they have communicated such successorship, the form of their communication is not clear enough (or updated enough) in order for successors (namely heirs) to be adequately able to know about the quantity of their coins (and the various locations of such coins) and to access such coins. Password management can be quite difficult, even when we are trying to recall our own accounts and/or locations of coins and other important things, so frequently if heirs are not even able to adequately figure out coins that a deceased person might have had, they might also not be ready, willing and/or able to spend time trying to figure out such puzzles...even something as simple as getting into the deceased person's laptop that may end up giving some clues, there can be difficulties getting in, and then also difficulties sorting through what information might be important, while perhaps attempting to preserve some of the privacy of the deceased person.
There may be deceased person personal papers in electronic form, in paper forum and even stashed away in various places (buried stamped steel plates that might not even have the whole seed in one place.. so having to put 2 or 3 parts together)
Fourth, - somewhat not related to lost coins, also consider the logistical problems of having someone technical (who might not be 100% honest) helping out a non-technical person, and if the person comes across information that reflects value or even bitcoin that can be irreversibly moved, and if such technical person comes accross life changing amounts of money that he considers himself to be more able to meaningfully spend as compared to a potentially undeserving and unknowing person who is the rightful beneficiary, then surely there can be temptations to move some or all of such coins to their own self-custody, yet theft of coins still would not be the same as lost coins, since in this kind of a case, the coins would just end up going to someone who took the coins... and sure maybe he does not take all the coins, so he ends up splitting the pot or maybe even retaining some control over the coins when he might transfer the coins to the intended beneficiary.
First, this is the most unfounded speculation ever. I agree with many things you say, but everyone who has had an interest in secret operations and so on, must come to the conclusion that nobody knows whether these coins are still "alive", you included. Sorry to take this step, but you included. Think about past operations, it would be stupid to outrule possibilities.
I doubt that my statement "outrules possibilities," since I am largely stating my inclinations on the topic. I did not even proclaim whatever level of probabilities I would assign to various possible alternatives, since I doubt that those kinds of particulars matter at this point in time. .and such bridge would need to be crossed if something (facts and/or logic) around the probabilities were to change.
Secondly, ok this I don't know. I think you are onto something here, I just don't know the magnitude. I think here in this specific case as described by you, in the lower percentage rate, but still. There are lost coins, but I would be surpirsed if somebody didn't check their wallets when they saw the news that BTC crossed $100k.
Of course, there are so many variables, so surely this is a working hypothesis... which is also subject to possible change.. and so surely every day (or at least periodically) there will be guys who are able to reconfirm that they still have access to their coins (whether by luck or crook, who knows?), and there will be guys who go to attempt to access their coins and realize that they no longer have access and there will be guys who pass away (or otherwise become disabled or mentally incapacitated in regards to their keys) which may contribute towards whatever peril ends from their way of holding their keys.
Third, I fully agree. This can be a big one. Shortcut here: explaining siblings how to handle things, it is a nightmare if they have never had anything to do with bitcoin. Yes, you are so right about this.
Again, a lot of scenarios... various levels of trust and mistrust...and maybe even sometimes could be easily resolved, but ends up procrastinating until "too late" to resolve/clarify.
Fourth, I gave a warning to a relative who told me that a friend would manage her BTC issues. I think there is nothing to add. However, for the folks reading this, do not transmit any access to anyone you can't 100% trust. Now figure out how many people in life you 100% trust.
Some people might seem 100% trustable at time A, but then death/incapacitation happens at time B.. so then such previously trusted person is put in a position to "do the right thing," yet such person knows enough to know that no one else knows, so is such person going to do the right thing, or not? Maybe the person does not even know, until put in such circumstances of considerable amounts of possible life-changing wealth, and no one else will know. Some of us might believe ourselves to be capable or not capable of doing the "right thing," and there will also be times in which "the right thing" will be subject to interpretation...and think of another possibility, the "right" thing (could well be interpreted to be divisible.. .hahahahahahaha.. by 100 million.... or even time-delayed preserving of a "back door" that may or may not be the "right thing" to do).
