Your whole premise is mindbogglingly flawed.
HODLers aren't in the "business" of HODLing. Therefore, they do not have operating costs that must be recouped every month. HODLers buy with money left over after paying bills.
Mining is a business, and businesses are in business to make money. They have a bottom line and those costs must be paid for. Anything that is left is available for speculating with, I guess... But these miners aren't like the old miners on CPU/GPU's where we would mine just to mine, and hold our coins to see what happens in the future. They are professional farms that have a full-time job to maintain their systems. Rent, Electric, staff, internet and hardware... These all cost big money for these farms. Costs that must be recouped first. Since ASIC can't be re-purposed, they need to paid for as fast as possible before they become inefficient and obsolete. My old graphics cards could be used for other things, and sold on Craigslist or ebay. No one wants an ASIC that is tired and makes no money.
Elwar, you're starting to sound like these trolls. Finding any pitiful argument you can as an excuse. Give it up dude
How is it different if a miner pays $325 in equipment/electricity/rent/etc. for a bitcoin and a HODLer pays $325 for a bitcoin? All of the sudden because of "ASICS" the miner is more likely to sell for fiat than anyone else who buys a bitcoin? Is there some mentality among miners where they got into Bitcoin because they don't believe in Bitcoin?
There is no difference. If I can go out now and buy a USB ASIC that costs $250 plus $75 in electricity throughout the lifetime of the hardware but it yeilds me 1 bitcoin, how is that any different from me going out and paying $325 for a bitcoin? Am I going to sell that 1 bitcoin because I mined it? That is the premise that is all screwed up.
You can't guarantee that $325 is going to produce 1 Bitcoin. If you go buy that Bitcoin, you can.
As I said before, since it's an ASIC, an "Application specific" piece of hardware, there is no other use than to mine Bitcoins, so no resale value outside of this tiny economy. And with difficulty shifts and price shifts, it becomes exponentially harder to
know what you will end up with in the end. You should want to have that piece of hardware paid for ASAP. Hell, that thing could fry the day after any warranty is up and it no longer produces anything but the smell of fried circuits. This is also a bit relative since it's a fairly trivial amount of money you are risking compared to the astronomical amounts put up by some of these farms that have the ability to create real sell pressure. It's all a race against the clock with these guys. In two weeks that same investment makes diminished returns of sometimes 40-60% and because it's not predetermined, you have to do what you can while you have the chance.
My main point is that there are a lot of unknowns in the miners mind. More so than just "What will the price be
at some point in the future?"
