Topic: Bitcoin to rally to $50+ (Read 10540 times)

lmao great necro.

in a few years people will be like

good thing I got out at 239 LOLOLOLOL

OMG, that's crazy. He was saying this in 2011? At least he got out at $10 and is not "holding the bag".

What can I say? Get rekt...

Nice find!

These blast from the past threads are always interesting but this one takes the cake since it finally puts an end to the perception of Kwuky's mentality. It totally makes sense why the dude is batshit crazy and jealous as hell these days. No vision is no vision.

So most of the guys here in this thread are millionairs now huh?  Wish I had heared something about bitcoin as it was at single or double digits 

Doesn't change the fact he is a troll now or make it not true he sold then

It took 7 posts for someone to pick up the /s

 

You guys know the meaning of seriously?

OUCH, this is why I won't sell for a small profit... Why jump into a high risk game for a 50% gain.. go buy bonds.

Nice find  

edit:Wow this thread is from right at the first bubble peak.

well, it was november 2013, you were not that stupid after all...

Yes, but the price went down to $2 the following November. He had every opportunity to buy his coins back and keep a huge profit. If he didn't buy them back then he made a huge mistake. Ideally selling at $30 and buying back at $2 would have been a really good trade, but its easy to say that with the historical charts in front of me.

LOL, no wonder his panties are in a bunch.   Selling out at $10 that's hilarious.

Look at Kwukduck's history, it seems he sold at $10 and has been a salty troll ever since!!!

HODL, do not become a Kwukduck!!!

I wish I did this a lot more since 2011!

I was pretty stupid too when i first started.. I figured we would hit 1000$ by this fall XD

I got lucky, didn't have money to buy bitcoins for most of the bubble.. but then suddenly needed linden on secondlife, sold 3 bitcoins on virwox at the going rate of 10,000 at the time.. which equates to almost 40$ XD a half hour later the price of bitcoins crashed.

My collective basis is way below par, and while I did get stopped out on that particular trade, it wasn't the end of the world. All part of the game. I knew what my risk parameters were and acted on them. I suggest anyone trading BTC to have a fully-formed plan to avoid potential pitfalls.
 

good point.

they are really useful to remind us not to make certain errors again :p

Wait, you mean the TradeHill codes in the signatures are no good anymore?

wow, zombie thread.

He didn't give a timeframe there, he just said "next time Bitcoin rallies". I think bitcoin has started going back up again, so maybe he will be right this time around?

I don't see no 50 bucks

We should be asking when other currency's stability will start to be judged by their exchange rate to Bitcoin.

quite possible

Just thought I would add my view.
The only real value of bitcoin at the moment is speculation. Everything always boils down to supply and demand. Eventually bitcoin will stabalise as the market starts to agree on the value of a bitcoin. Because it is early days, we will see massive jumps in price due to increase of market participents plus people holding onto their bitcoins selling when price looks tasty. Anyone that says there is no danger of bitcoin crashing and just going into the history books as a failed currency, should be carefull. I would however tend to agree that bitcoin is most likely here to stay, at least for the medium term. There would not even need to be an adoption of it as a currency/payment for it to sustain itself, since it has become a tradable asset.

It was undervalued and I don't think that will happen again.

it hit something like 10.50 last night :p

I think it is bottomed out right now, +/- $1.

I didn't read page 2 or 3, but I dunt thinks I need to.

Bitcoin fell from USD 30 to USD 23 today + some of yesterday because Silk Road closed registration. It's that simple.

Amen!

I'd buy it with both hands around 25. Hell, I already have.

Stick to your guns, we'll be laughing about how this price level got left in the dust a few weeks later.

You can see resistance to price movement on mtgoxlive.com.

See that wall of downside resistance at $20? 

See that green line bouncing sharply off the $20 line?  That was the local bottom.

The nearly instant recovery from $20 is a very bullish sign!

I've got buy orders at $18.50.  That's the price floor we need to protect to avoid a crash to below $15.

If you want to help maintain the value of bitcoins and prevent chart damage, put some of your mtgox profits back into bitcoins at the price levels where resistance is highest.

Look for the orange cliffs and stand guard over those walls. 

Sell the rips, and buy the dips.  Raise loads of cash and FOR THE LOVE OF MERKLE HELP ME HOLD THE LINE.

I'm of the opinion it already has.

And like I just posted, the adoption of BTC right now is most a small subsection of geeks and computer-literate who can read and understand what BTC is and how it works.  To the average person it must seem completely hokey, to others who find about it later don't want to get into a market this volatile.  What other demographics of people that have yet to hear about BTC are going to be willing to buy in to BTC at a $20 - $30 price range with the 'legal system' still out to lunch regarding what to do about these markets?  That truly is the question we should be asking ourselves.

You are correct, the purchasing power of bitcoin will be more stable when it stores a significant share of more people's value.

But remember that even today the purchasing power of the dominant currencies fluctuates significantly year-to-year (anywhere from 3%-10% depending on the estimate).

As for the fact that greed is what is driving the interest in trading of bitcoin, it will significantly speed up the adoption of bitcoin.  Which is good for every bitcoin user.

It's nice in our "society of laws" we live in that Senator Schumer is essentially sending the AG after BTC without any legal authority for doing so.  Is the AG his own private goon?  Shouldn't he be proposing a bill on this?  Is Schumer part of the executive branch?  What type of gulag are we living in?

I agree.  Price and difficulty are correlated indicators, with price leading and difficulty lagging.  Lagging indicators "confirm the strength of a trend".

The empirical data shows correlation, but there is no control group with which to perform an experiment and determine the causal relationship.

When the difficulty rises to support a higher price floor, difficulty is effectively driving the price.  By this argument, the causality goes both ways (two-way causality).

It will be significantly more stable when more people use it to buy and sell services'n'stuff than people using it to sell and buy money. That's where Bitcoin needs to go to be disruptive. The question is: Do people want a decentralized digital payment method, or a commodity for speculation to make quick bucks. ATM, it looks like greed has taken over which most likely will do no good to anybody.

I think from here, we still have a long way to go until we reach a stable price. A $50+ price in the near future would not be a surprise. I see a lot of newcomers looking at the recent correction and panicking. No worries, this has happened multiple times before.

Ive been in many trades with new and novel technology roll out.  This is the same animal, although a different commodity.
Frankly I do hope people vehemently hate BTC, say for a year or so. and then like all good duplicitous humans they will begin to love it and it will be their god. yes its true.

your heard it here first 

As long as it's still paying the cost of electricity / air conditioning I'll see you there

Totally goes with what I was saying about scarcity per capita. If even 1% of the ~2.1 billion human beings with internet access were to jump on this bandwagon we'd be splitting the ~6.5 million existing btc another 20,950,060 ways. How much do you think the price would jump if the number of bitcoins divided by the number of users meant the average person had 0.31 BTC to their name?

And again, the sudden adoption would spike the number of miners which would spike the difficulty so it would increase proportionately with price

I tend to agree with you.

If the 100th monkey effect hits and it suddenly becomes obvious to everyone in the world that bitcoin is the de facto world currency and invests in $10 worth of bitcoin, bitcoin will top $10,000 overnight irrespective of anything else

Or the people who are staying with it right now... Who by that time will probably be considered "big boys" so yeah

The bitcoin rush was a one-time fluke. There's not likely to be another influx of new investors after the price jump, especially with the market fluctuating so wildly. Investors are getting burned on its volatility.

Your major mistake here was not recognizing that the miners are the original suppliers and the primary issue they fight with daily is the difficulty rating. To this end, difficulty determines the psychology of the individual producer - while it certainly doesn't change the number of total coins available, it changes the number of coins available to each individual seller and therefore the resource becomes scarcer to them and so they demand more money. Resource scarcity is at the heart of supply and demand and it is not absolute - the scarcity of a resource is not simply a matter of "how many of thing X exist" but also "how many people must share the resource pool of X" - as more people must share the pool, the scarcity per capita increases and as so the value does as well.

Scarcity per capita, market depth, production cost and rate, investor demand, end-user demand and much more go into the price of a bitcoin. I'm saying that everyone who is taking some tiny corner that they perceive to be the "supply and demand" at the heart of bitcoin is wrong. There are many factors affecting supply and many factors affecting demand and they are interwoven in a complex and tangled hierarchy. The hierarchy as a whole tends to follow certain rules, such as "price is proportional to difficulty" because the factors built into the network conspire to make it so: more participants means more scarcity per capita and it also means more miners; value rises with difficulty. Neither is the cause of the effect witnessed in the other. They are both caused in this case by a simple increase in the market size without a corresponding increase in resource availability. In some examples one causes the other, in other example neither is the cause but are actually effects of some tertiary cause.

You are all over-simplifying things. If economics were this simple we'd all have to be quite stupid not to have been billionaires long before bitcoin existed.

you mean supply and demand have nothing to do with it. 

I figured that with a high demand and low supply the price went up until they equalized.
and when fewer people were wanting to sell their items the price went even higher.
then someone decided to stop hoarding because they wanted to buy something else put their items up for sale increasing the supply others found that since the supply was higher, they had to reduce their asking price if they wanted to make a sale.

Once the buyers had their fill and wanted no more, the sellers still had some left but had diminishing sales. reducing their prices, attracting sales at a new lower equilibrium point.

It's all difficulty and price?

Damn my econ teacher!

@chodpaba

Nice charts, I see your point. While there is variance regarding BTC Rate Price and Difficulty, the curve tends to adhere to an uptrend.

Got it.

Nice retrace on the BTC Rate, I'm a bit heartened that we didn't punch through 15 - the upward trendline would've been breached.

Look, I'm not saying you're all wrong, I'm saying each of you is right about part of the system. I'm all for Occam's Razor and everything, but neither simple answer correctly describes the system as a whole. Like most economic systems, bitcoin represents a tangled hierarchy of competing and interrelated interests. In this respect, the only difference between bitcoin and any other economic system is that bitcoin is still small enough that we can see most of the bits that make up that hierarchy. Within such a small hierarchy we can spot trends and make predictions somewhat more easily. The primary contention in bitcoin right now is between the miners and the investors. Some see the fact that price and difficulty correspond and say that they are causally linked. They then infer that in most systems one thing is always the cause and one is always the effect. In a tangled hierarchy you will often find various types of closed loops in which the outcome of one action, modulated by other factors becomes the input to the original action and thereby becomes its own cause.

I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong, I'm saying you're all right and wrong at the same time because you're all describing aspects of the same reality without really painting the entire picture.

They follow each other, the system is self-referential.

So your opposing theory is what, that price moves down when a slew of miners mysteriously stop operations for no apparent reason when the market is at an all-time high? Investors create fluctuations above a baseline determined by the producers of a resource, how is this so hard to believe?

It's difficulty that follows the price, not the other way around.

Based on what we've seen so far, 50% retracements from recent doublings isn't anything alarming. It would have to go through 15 to break the longer term trendline on a log chart.

Indeed. $30 was actually high for the current difficulty so I'm not surprised at all to see it settle back to $25-ish numbers. The only way the price goes up disproportionate to the difficulty is in the event of large-scale adoption. If an entire country, for example, decided to use BTC as their national currency we'd have to split the ~6.5 million existing bitcoins between a huge number of people. If the average bank account balance in Country X is 0.02 BTC then obviously the things that 1 BTC would buy there would be immensely valuable, hence driving the cost.

Since I didn't hear news about a country switching to crypto-currency I happily sold at 31 BTC and bought back in at 25 

Don't you guys know the bitcoin ponzi scheme is collapsing right now??
I sold my coins for 10 dollars before it was too late!

no but seriously... i think 50 is on the high end, im guessing next difficulty will only push it to about silver 35-40 USD

Again, this is only half of the equation. Changes in difficulty lag changes in price during times of increased value because the higher price motivates more people to become miners, thus increasing the number of hashes per second computed by the network as a whole.

To see the other half of the equation, look at the times when it appeared that BTC's value was going to tank, note the point at which the market value refused to go any lower. Plot these low points over time and they also correspond to difficulty, in a much tighter curve than the highs or averages do, actually. This is the low point beyond which the miners are hesitant to sell. This is because unlike investors, most miners have ongoing costs to cover and a profit to make for this to be worth their time/effort. I know my electric bill is certainly high enough that I'd be hesitant to sell below a certain point...

The best thing one who hold some bitcoin can do is to save them somewhere safe and than come back and check the exchange rate in a year or two.

Meanwhile maybe get some bitcoin biz started up.

I agree. As a result the current price is artificial.

Difficulty follows total hashrate which could be slightly influenced by price, since a higher $/BTC exchange rate makes mining appear more profitable, but price also follows mining in that miners are the initial supply. Once all of the investors have burned off their shares, the miners tend to hold steady with what they deem is a reasonable price for their efforts and so represent a "floor" to the market, which historically has increased proportional to difficulty.

Really, the market is a sort of "strange loop" (as described by Dr. Douglas Hofstadter). Like many things in this world its initial conditions emerged from outside influence and over time the factors which influenced it came to be included within it. The market influences the miners who then influence the market which influences the miners... It's like a big crypto-economic M.C. Escher painting

I believe the drop today can be completely explained by the two exchange sites both experiencing unclear problems with USD transfer out (problems that are now resolved).  I know this was because of API upgrades at Dwolla, but that wasn't explained anywhere on those sites.  All most users saw were two things, 1) Senator Schumer saying he was going to shut down bitcoin, then 2) USD transfers suddenly stop working.  All of this combined with the general background noise on the hate-bitcoin sites saying this is a scam, ponzi, etc, caused a crisis in confidence.  Hopefully it will resolve itself.

Yup, buy, mine, and hoard is what I'm doing.

screw worrying! I'm buying more!

and as for difficulty, it doesnt really make a difference either way... though it is more likely to follow price due to price being raised by new adopters who join in on the mining.

The rise to $30 was a bit fast... Price before the last difficulty change was around 18.  I would think that 22.50-25 would be  a fair increase along w\ the difficulty.

The thing is there is a 'lower limit' or 'real' value for Bitcoin. I believe thats about where its sitting now ($24). So no, I wouldnt be worried. It will rally again and next time it will go even higher. You just need to be patient.

Difficulty follows price, not the other way around.

I think the people saying silver parity are correct.. $36

Coins dropped by abut $6 the past day and a half, that doesn't have you worried at all? I'm still holding on to my bitcoins in hopes of another rally. I'm just scared I didn't wait too long...

The network growth rate does not significantly affect the switch to 25BTC.  That will occur on schedule around December 2012. 

/Yes, a steadily growing difficulty does make this happen a little faster, but only due to difficulty adjustment lag.  Dec 2012, plus or minus a few months should be a safe estimate.

at the current rate of network growth, how long is it going to be before block's yield 25btc instead of 50?

I'm interested to see what will happen at that point in time.  With difficulty increases steadily increasing... that 50% split in yield amount added to difficulty should create a significant spike in value.

Doublings with Bitcoins come once a month, based on historical data. It will happen but not 3 or 4 days.

3 or 4 days I believe.

This thread is on the money (or bitcoin lol) http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=7985.0

Theres some BIG money going to pour into Bitcoin speculation shortly and when it does the price is going to explode.

how long until the next difficulty jump?

I'm not sold on $50, but I think a rally to 40 and stabilization around 35 would be fair.

Because of the impending rise in difficulty, next time Bitcoin rallies its going to top $50US..it may even go to $100

Discuss