Site: http://bitcoin-trader.bizProfile: xephyr (
https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/xephyr-154893)
Self-moderated thread (negative posts are deleted): https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/altcoin-trader-518602Open thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-traderbiz-393570xephyr says he's just a user of the site, but when you look at his posts you can see he spends lots of time making them and sounds just like a company representative would. He provides daily updates on returns with charts and images and whatnot. I don't think an ordinary user would take that much time and effort just for a few referral clicks. An ordinary user also wouldn't start a self-moderated thread and delete negative replies that point out how the site is a ponzi scheme.
Regardless of whether xephyr is the site operator, the site is a classic ponzi/HYIP.
First warning sign:
FYI bitcoin-trader.biz was registered October 2013 (
http://who.is/whois/bitcoin-trader.biz). OP said they started in April 2013, six months before the domain was registered. Maybe they used a different domain, but just something to be aware of.
Also 120 days means once you invest you can't withdraw for that long? Sounds like a way to get lots of people's money, report that they're making lots of gains, but never pay out. Why would you restrict when they are able to withdraw?
The 6 month difference is important because it implies that people had previously been paid back their principle after the lockup period ended. Since the site actually started in October 2013 or later, zero or few lockup periods have ended.
An analysis of the claimed returns:
Has anyone actually received their principal back from this? 20% per month = double your money in 5 months. Madoff promised 0.83% per month using magical arbitrage strategies and the smart people knew that couldn't be real.
What is the total size of the trading fund? If you're doing arbitrage with your $1,000 account I could see a 20% return being possible. But arbitrage opportunities do not scale. There is a limited amount of arbitrage available in the market and lots of people competing to get it. And according to bitcoin-trader.biz they are doing manual trading. How could it be possible for them to get the large amount of arbitrage profits they'd need for those level of returns, especially when they are at a huge disadvantage to automated traders?
Plus they are reporting returns of around 1% per day. That's a 3778% APY when compounded daily (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-yield_investment_program). If they were getting those kinds of returns they wouldn't need to take anybody else's money. 1 BTC invested at those rates in April 2013 would be worth 4,100,974,661,233,895 BTC today. Or you know, 300,000,000 times the total supply of Bitcoins.
I'm calling it:
PONZI