Too much bad news, too many posts arguing whether economic crisis, global trade war, US interest rate increasing might happen or not. So are all these threats really big? Let’s finding out:
About the crisis of 10 years: It’s, as my point of view, very difficult for global crisis to happen at this point of time. The world still finds a balance itself. Trump has had pragmatic, unpredictable actions with the goal of bringing more advantages to the United States. U.S has been no longer as beautiful as it used to be, but rather pragmatic, effectiveness.
And more details:
Let's review the U.S trade deficit over the years:
1. The United States has a huge trade deficit, about $ 56 billion right after Trump's imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum from China. All countries, including Trump and Xi Jinping know that the United States is suffering. So Trump’s tax policy is just a springboard for negotiations to reduce the trade deficit. Moreover, the crisis can hardly happen at this time when the relating parties are still active.
About the US interest rate increase.
2. US interest rate rises due to inflation concerns. Raising interest rates to attract money into banks, reducing the amount of money circulation, thereby reducing inflation.
Let's review inflation and interest rates over the 10 years of the US.
Inflation has not shown signs of an upswing in the United States during the 2009-2016 period, maintaining a record low of 0.25 percent to boost economic growth. The US government has started raising interest rates since 2016. However, inflation has been declining since then. Experts have predicted that the United States will raise interest rates three times in 2018 and 0.25% each. This is, in my opinion, not too bad for the current market.
Securities, currency and cryptocurrencies are very sensitive to interest rates and exchange rates. The increase in interest rates will take the money supply into the bank, thereby reducing the amount of money flowing into the stock market, housing and other channels, including cryptocurrencies. Monetary policy usually lags about 6 months. Therefore, we need to look more closely at the US interest rate movements in oder to have suitable reactions.
About the relationship among DowJone and BTC/ Coinmarketcap
Looking at the chart for 10 years DJ index increased from 13K to 24K and Coinmarketcap has still finding itself the lowest capitalization of 2017.
Conclusion:1. Global Trade war may occurs, but The United States and the US economy will benefit more. Short-term psychological effects are essential.
2. Interest rates may increase, but in the long run, when inflation remains stable, interest rates will also be stable.
3. Coinmarketcap has been deviating from the DJ, any moves/ failure actions in the short term such as selling off can be paid in money. In short, my personal portfolio has still been 60% cryptocurrencies and 40% cash (USDT).
Coinmarketcap may recapture the new peak in mid-April or late June 2018 after a long duration of trampling
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My portfolio in 2018: BTC, ETH, LTC, NEO, Stellar, BNB, EOS, Cardano, Ripple and some TCASH (lol)