I have been reading up on BU today, my question would be, "what is to stop BU forking into a couple of different chains with entrenched groups of miners and nodes on each chain? all arguing over block size and direction of bitcoin"? much like we have now. i have a lot of faith in the mathematics of the system but very little faith in Human beings and there ability to agree.
firstly learn consensus agreement vs bilateral split.
too many times people only speak of the best case scenario of soft and the worse case of hard.(they know why they do it!!)
but effectively the only difference between soft and hard is who gets to vote to activate..
soft.. pool votes nodes dont.
hard.. nodes vote then pools.
but in both soft and hard. both can have consensus, both can be controversial and both can have bilateral
softfork: consensus - >94% pools no banning/ignoring of minority. result: small 5% orphan drama then one chain. minority unsynced and dead
softfork: controversial - >50% pools no banning/ignoring of minority. result: long big% orphan drama then one chain. minority unsynced and dead
softfork: bilateral - intentionally ignoring/banning opposing rules and not including them. result: 2 chains
hardfork: consensus - >94% nodes, then >94% pools no banning/ignoring of minority. result: 5% orphan drama then one chain. minority unsynced / dead
hardfork: controversial - >50% nodes, then >50% pools no banning/ignoring of minority. result: big% orphan drama then one chain. minority unsynced / dead
hardfork: bilateral - intentionally ignoring/banning opposing rules and not including them. result: 2 chains
to make an actual altcoin you need to do more then just make bigger blocks or send an erroneous transaction.. as that just causes rejects/orphans.
you need to actually make the nodes ignore the opposing data and nodes so that they are not sticking to the same data. and instead walk in opposite directions
high agreement = less orphans low agreement = more orphans.
but if you have another clause to avoid rejecting or even seeing the opposition. then you are risking creating an altcoin
probably the only thing carlton has said this year that has merit.
the pools wont do anything if the risk of orphan is too high.. = incentive to play it safe and wait until there is little to no. or atleast acceptable risk
even with soft. even knowing nodes are not voting, pools are not going to risk doing anything to cause high orphan rate.
so this is why even with a soft fork. pools are waiting to see(unofficially) if node counts rise up to show they can validate FULLY the data devs want pools to make.