Topic: BITCOIN VALUE INDICATOR SAYS PRICE ‘STILL OVERBOUGHT’ BUT BOTTOM ‘NEAR’ (Read 155 times)

we have already seen like 3 jumps into the $8k(40% up) range. and none of them held. we need to see hashrate rises that outpace asic manufacturers selling hardware at lower prices.
the end result is that if the price to mine is more expensive than the price to buy. people would prefer to buy.
(this spins the wheels of pushing up the value and price. which then makes mining profitable. that then keeps the hashrates going up, which then if unprofitable makes people wanna buy coin. and repeat repeat repeat)
.. this is happening slowly. and hopefully the latest asic batch prices are the bottom discount. so now the hashrate push will cause the reaction of shifting new entrants away from mining with new batches of asics and instead buying coin. and then as the wheels turn it raises the support where everyone will refuse to sell at 6100 6300 and so on. so that the prices dont go to previous lows and instead the waves of speculation PRICE go into $7k and VALUE moves up the $6k. and it just continues up
...
acquiring coin through the markets or via mining is the balancing act of shifting the support line which is all based on the cost of acquiring coin. and although the market is unpredictable, the mining side is more predictable and measurable. as its easy to cost out a btc via mining. even a few weeks before new entrant miners use their rigs because the price they pay for the rigs and the electric needed is all specified at asic sales pages weeks before a miner takes delivery to use them

not at all. bitcoin is actually extremely under-priced right now. in a way it is currently kept down with a lot of manipulation, panic and FUD.
but don't confuse being under-priced with reaching a new ATH. a new ATH (which is basically a price above $20k) at this point means another bubble but a rise is needed to get back to where bitcoin belongs not at $6k but probably about 40% higher than this. then we can have a solid rise from there, it doesn't have to be a jump and unrealistic market performances.

its over bought?
nope. its not over bought its at actually a good low level to buy.

the daily/weekly waves are normal speculation.. 5-10% speculation price is normal..
we are not in the Tsunami speculation wave season of last winter. which was 400%-1000% compared to last summer

we are currently in normal expected calm waters of this years higher natural underlying value waterline but this topic is trying to make people believe that stagnant waterline is the norm.. where waves should not exist at all.. (facepalm)

even fiat see's movements in price which dont cause damage or seen as inflation

seems the article writer has limited knowledge and is trying to put stuff together to sound good, but misses the point.

i did read the article. but the first paragraph gave me pause enough to make me want to facepalm and not bother.
as soon as the word marketcap is mentioned you instantly know they have not looked at the full scope of the economy

..
delving deeper
using unique addresses is flawed too. because that just as bad as saying someone has 100 separate pennies instead of a single $£1. or is wearing pants with more than 2 pockets.. it doesnt really help.

my view
what should have been used is the UTXO of the COINS moved. not the transactions moved..
looking over the last 10 or so months to know when coins move, the value they attain at that movement is of the price at the date of that movement. because people measure the value when moving/swapping coins.. over 65% of all coins in circulation moved when prices were over $5,800 thus over 70% value coins at over $5800

this compared to last year is a healthy rise of underlying value.
its too early to call a new number in the $6k range as the $5.8k has been recently tested.. but at the same time the recent test adds more wight, as the price got tested before that and before that again. the more retests without breaking the line. so that also adds substance to the value

then there is mining costs.
although more variable. at the summers ASIC price of $850 per asic and prior to that 1250+ per rig. calculating the majority low cost of electric savvi miners use. has shown a healthy +$5800 of multiple months cost is healthy meaning they wont sell for less.

however this month ASICs (limited stock though so not much impact) are selling for $440 an asic. which would mean by the time people get delivery the hashrate should be around 65exa hash to keep a mining cost of latest limited supply batchs above the $5800 cost. but while below that hashrate, meaning lower cost per btc mining for those lucky few that buy cheaper rigs. their impact vs the millions of existing rigs that cost more wont be much to influence value below $5800 as they first have to fight the waves above $5800 of miners with higher costs and users swapping coins of higher cost.. and so instead would just continue the waves of this natural 5-10% up and down movement above the waterline

but as i said not enough time has passed to raise the waterline value of about $5800 and no pressure of new participant miners to price it down... so its just normal wave movements.

but once hashrates are above 65exa september mining new batches wont be a down pressure at all(thse batches havent even got delivered until october, so no downward pressure yet. and as i said no downward pressure want rxahash high enough to make them nw rigs have a higher cost to mine. so relax)

summary bottom line value at a healthy $5800 with natural waves of 5-10% above the waterline

I would like to know what fundamentals bitcoin has?? It is not a stock or equity which will have fundamental characteristics!

I consider bitcoin as a digital commodity which has a production cost, mining! As per my point of view, bitcoin is not at all over priced at the current level. Instead it is far less than its generating cost considering the cost of mining equipment and electricity maintenance cost.

Currently only large scale mining projects are financially viable. Small miners with smaller capacity mining rigs have thrown out of the equation already. How come someone just say it is over priced when the matter if fact is that bitcoin is under priced by a great margin!

Considering the amount of capital needed to set up a mining right, with the increases difficulty over the years and reduced rewards for completing blocks. I don't think bitcoin is overpriced. This intrinsic value, coupled with it's unique and versatile applications gives it a certain worth, and I feel it is rather undervalued now.

https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-value-indicator-says-price-still-overbought-but-bottom-near/

“Bitcoin is probably still overpriced, but the fundamentals are steadily improving while the average price of Bitcoin has continued to fall,” he wrote concluding the findings.

I somewhat agree with this statement. As much as I wanted to see bitcoin's value reach its new ATH for this year yet seems so vague due to lots of factors affecting its performance in the market.

From your own personal opinion, what should be the rightful price of bitcoin considering every factors to acquire a coin? Is bitcoin really overpriced despite the difficulty of mining a coin nowadays and the resources needed to perform such tasks? Share your thoughts!