Topic: Bitcoin VS Oil VS Russia VS Ukraine (Read 363 times)

Part of the oil price movements (at least the short term ones) is panic and part of it is supply shortages. It is not just Russian oil either, for example I believe it was last week when the Saudi production (supply 12% of world's oil) was ceased when their facilities were attacked and burned for 4 days straight. Of course this news was kept silent by mass media censoring to prevent further panic.

It must be remembered that having a currency that no one can control, nor the government is very attractive, especially when emergency measures will not affect it.
It seems that this is what prompted the Russian invasion of Ukraine to encourage many Russians to store and move money in cryptocurrencies.
looks like the same thing has happened in ukraine where they are also doing the same thing, and information from the ancient crypto exchange there has been a 3x surge in daily trading.

This indicates that in an emergency situation, crypto is indeed a way out to ensure that there is no great fear by using fiat in other countries. so the need for crypto is a way out so that there is no pressure that can affect what will be done.

In fact, the trend of rising world oil prices was seen before the Russian invasion of Ukraine took place, but this has become a trigger for an increase again and is accelerating. If you look at the price of Brent oil on the ICE market, it touched the price of US$ 100/barrel, although it closed at US$ 97.93/barrel.

it should also be remembered that global oil supply is disrupted. Russia's production is around 11 million barrels per day. around 10% of the world's oil production, so if this war continues it will trigger the prices of all commodities will also be affected and will increase as well.

because if the price of oil increases, the means of transportation will also be affected and that will result in global triggering that others will also be affected, especially clearly the food commodity which is very uncontrollable for the economy, making it more difficult for global economic recovery as well as inflationary pressure in the world. .

So everyone's role is to be able to prevent the war there from continuing and be able to sit in peace talks, but don't make the atmosphere more crowded by intervening by participating in the battle.
there are still many ways that can be taken to not be prolonged, firstly not participating in the war but bringing it into negotiations to find a good solution.

Without a doubt Putin is not going to like this, we have talked at length about this, governments like the idea of using Bitcoin to ignore the sanctions that are used against them, however they hate this ability can be gotten by everyone and that people can do the same against them, Russia may tolerate this at the moment as they need money circulating in their economy regardless of the source, but once the war ends I would not be surprised to see them change their posture and try to ban or to heavily regulate this market.

As said bitcoin is completely different from the stocks and other forms of investments, but I feel it also have some impact. Whatever the market, they'll be tied together in some means. Maybe the impact felt upon vary.

During the beginning days of Russia's invasion on Ukraine bitcoin market crashed, same is with the stocks. Further the price bounced which is unexpected. This is where bitcoin differ from stocks. For now amidst the war and other global incidents bitcoin is on the good move with more countries legalizing its usage.

Well, If they will use Bitcoin just like how we use fiat currency, It wouldn't really make enough impact of Btc price. Not unless If most of the Russians decides to hold it.
As you noticed, when donations were pouring to help Ukraine, there was a small rally of price but I guess after they have spent it (to military resources per speculations/ I don't know If that's true) Btc went back a few thousand dollars.
I mean, its not really a bad thing If they use Bitcoin as a currency, because we are supposed to be doing that in the first place. However, that will be a good mass adoption anyway.

If you're using a non-custodial wallet, there's nothing to worried about.  No one can compensate your wallet and no one can access it except you.
There's nothing the government does on the decentralized currency most especially Bitcoin, it might have a slight effect on the Bitcoin price but as per see, it was a good effect because as we saw Bitcoin price increased despite a war.  Even Rusia and Ukraine used Bitcoin as their alternative currency.

It's not right to compare Bitcoin to stocks like Oil, Bitcoin is digital while those you mentioned above it's totally different.

Too late really, there  is no great evidence China can source any great patch of oil from that area vs their vast requirements.   If they were able to do frack drilling and recover oil quickly in some clever technology use perhaps but this is an entire industry and skillset that has to be built up.  People underestimate the capital resources, the people and machinery required to invest long term in order to get back a steady commodity whatever that might be.  
  For example Venezuela has greater oil reserves proven over any other country in the world even Saudi Arabia however they do not have a simple way to extract it at profit.  Its dirty oil full of sulphur, sour where as Saudi has the sweet oil and with maybe the lowest cost to extract over anywhere in the world, their cost to access their established oil reserves is very low and this matters.   Right now the price is high and Venezuela should have some ability to produce but its not simple for them and it wont be simple for China it'll take them many decades even if they found the oil tomorrow its not available to them as such.   China will partner with Russia for the oil, thats the path of least resistance.

They have other options already, other than crypto, some of their citizens are already opening Chinese bank accounts. So crypto is really not their first choice here but other fiat currency like Chinese Yuan. It will be a long recovery for them and right now, they are not yet starting as the war is still not over. So yes, we don't know what will happen after this war because we don't know yet the outcome of their negotiations. It will depend on the agreement of both countries. And from that point, we will know where they will be heading to recovery.

It is a good alternative for people in Russia to hold Bitcoin when their local currency is going down the drains due to restrictions but what i am worried is that the government now knows the power of a decentralized cryptocurrency and they understand that the sanctions do not work like they wanted and i doubt whether they will come out with any kind of legislation to counter that.

Many whales are active traders so they have to use exchanges to make their moves, however I guess that right now probably whales have taken a break from trying to obtain some additional profits as it would be too risky for them to try to do so if they are Russian, after all even if exchanges so far have decided to not sanction users coming from Russia it is difficult to know how long this is going to remain the case and if they change their mind and you have money with them then all of that money will be quite difficult to recover.

The effect of the war on bitcoin may not be felt instantly, it is a gradual process but I think it will have a little change as the time go because now that Russia has made it a legal status, this will encourage hodling in bitcoin , rubie is dropping and Russians don't have easy access to dollar this can push more Russians to convert to bitcoin and do their transaction because it is decentralised and no restriction.

They can do anything about economic sanctions, products, oil and so on, but they can't penalize, crypto exchanges/wallets and so on, that exist today.

They have the right to embargo and sanction human needs ranging from natural resources to infrastructure, they have control over all that, not with crypto, that's the advantage of crypto that we know today.

The bottom line: you don't have to worry about Bitcoin changes, Bitcoin doesn't have a big impact on the war between Russia and Ukraine, you can still enjoy the services of a crypto exchange in your local area.

The first effect I saw was when Ukraine was accepting Bitcoin as donations. That increased BTC price to $43k, not accurate, somewhere that number.
But then, it needs to be spend to provide the needs of the people affected by the war and so it went back minus $4k or more.
What I want to see is for it to go back up due to the value of Ruble going south. They will buy other commodities, exchange it for another currency, or cryptocurrencies to retain its value. But it's not happening yet so they might be purchasing other types of investments.

Even before the wars happen, people already know how to use a BTC but the wars can lead for more people to use BTC. It is nice if we have a multi currency not just the only one that we use right now because it can be use on different situations.

The wars again have prove it. Fiat currency are nearly useless but thankfully we have BTC and that continue the operation. Ukraine donations also accept dot and ETH, I have no problems with dot but I am more concerned with ETH. What if there are new people that use this coin and we all know that the fees in ETH is still high, will this disappoint them and they will think that cryptos are only for the rich? hmm...

The scarcity came from the sanctions on Ukraine so western countries are facing consequences now, but China is taking this opportunity and started buying or made a deal with Russia to get the oil from them so the effect is going to be on USD which will result in hike of USD inflation rate. The only sector who didn't get back from Russia is cryptocurrency exchanges so yes government may ask them to ban Russia but we don't know yet what will happen.

It is unfortunate that people need these extreme circumstances to understand why something like bitcoin is necessary, both Russian and Ukraine citizens that would like nothing more but to remain at peace with each other had their lives turned upside down one day just because Putin decided to invade Ukraine and now they are paying the consequences of those actions they had nothing to do with, and if they had bitcoin then a great deal of their economic troubles would not have happened and could leave their countries knowing they can leave with their full wealth and that no one can confiscate that wealth against their will.

and with all of that this means one thing that the effect of this war hasn't certain if will be beneficial or distracting and of course as of now there are still no great or bad effect to the market so we are looking for at least longer chances?
I'm afraid that in the end of everything we in cryptospace will suffer more thanw hat other business and market would be.

This is brilliant because sanctions can also be placed on exchanges and this will end up affecting we individuals not country as a whole

To me, the war and the use of BTC in the region opens the perspective of having a multi-currency in the real world. Ukraine donations accept DOT and ETH too. People will start using any cryptocurrency if they are going to be accepted by businesses and we already witness countries starting from El Salvador.

The war in Ukraine just shows how much oil can be used to see who controls the world and we could see how the US did in the previous decades and how Russia is about to do it and how China is also about to dig oil under the South China Sea.

The opinions regarding this topic vary. There are people who are saying that the effect of the war in Ukraine started by the Russians is beneficial to crypto in one way or another. But there are also people who are saying that Bitcoin will suffer in this conflict the way the traditional market like the stock market and forex market suffer. I can only look at the price. And for now, it seems the price hasn't shown that it reacted too much to the war.

As to the possible sanction on exchanges and wallets, it might happen so the best thing to do now with our crypto funds is to withdraw them from custodial and centralized wallets and exchanges, respectively. Take note, that's the best thing to do in times of war and peace.

There's no sanction happen towards wallet owners so far so you don't need to get afraid of this since so far exchange owners and wallet providers are neutral towards this issues. Also the only thing affect crypto on this situation is the possible crisis brought by this war that's why many people got afraid and immediately dumo to secure their profit or asset but as you can see those are short term only and now we can see thay bitcoin became stable and doing good right now.

It affects the price but only by creating short term volatility. In February where the army was ready and waiting at the Ukrainian border we had huge drops across all markets, not excluding bitcoin. You can't deny that and that was far more than 5% we went from 44k to 34k USD.

In the long run we can expect bitcoin to follow its own path but if the war escalates on nearby countries the markets will take another hit and so will bitcoin. It happens because the same investors who invest in bitcoin are often present on traditional markets. When they take a hit they try to save themselves by selling all across the board.

There is no reason for fear about banning wallets because this is technically impossible. The fear is for investment who intend to reach a high profit from investing in bitcoin for short term ; the actual situation of high price volatility remains to be so risky for all of them.
If we can reach out statistics about the amount of bitcoin circulating for Ukraine and Russian users, i think we will conclude how significant it is to affect the price and the circulating supply in whole ; one country is using it to avoid sanctions while the other is using it to accept financial aid from its supporters .

The amount of Bitcoin volume happening in both Ukraine and Russia is not significant enough to affect the price. The biggest thing that can happen is the use of Bitcoin by these countries influencing the decision on crypto regulation made by the West, since they are the economic powerhouse. Bitcoin used to avoid sanctions by Russia = more Bitcoin restrictions; Bitcoin used to help Ukraine = more favorable regulation.

As you said, the bitcoin was exception one of this option.Because the bitcoin price is just get reduced due to market situation.With my knowledge, only the bitcoin was used by Russia and Ukraine people with out the knowledge to the government. Even after the block of Swift transfer, Russian government not official declaration to use of bitcoin for their transaction.It was belief of they using of crypto in the transaction in Russia and No official statements.

The war in Ukraine creates panic and uncertainty and this panic can spread across multiple markets.
The traders/investors on the crypto market are people,they could be influenced by panic and fear.
There's no mass adoption of crypto in Russia and Ukraine,it's just the fact that both countries imposed more liberal regulations over crypto.This doesn't mean that suddenly millions of people in Russia and Ukraine started using cryptocurrencies.
There's no actual scarcity of oil in the western world right now.Most of the western countries have oil reserves,which could last for 90 days.The real oil shortage in the west might begin during the summer,if the war in Ukraine(and the western sanctions) continues for more than 90 days.

It doesn't, well, at least if it is going to, hasn't affected the market yet. I honestly don't think it even is going to impact the market, even if it would, it'd be rather negligible. The biggest impact it could've had should've happened prior to or at the start of the war, and seeing nothing has really changed, I don't think it did anything. The market movement is still the general steady movement it has done in the past few weeks, it's the market sentiment itself (which may or may not include the war issue, but it certainly isn't alone on that).

Maybe, if they see that crypto has a big enough impact to affect the situation in Russia, though it won't likely happen since crypto is more of a personal thing.

Your question needs a bit more clarity. Do you mean the Russian government will sanction exchanges, which they would not? Ukraine's government is taking donations in crypto, so they can't even think of putting sanctions on wallet owners. Also, most of the exchanges have refused to block the exchange accounts for the people of Russia.
Overall, people have come to know the importance of bitcoin in war times and indirectly this will have a bullish impact on bitcoin prices in long run.

What scarcity? Ukraine didn't have oil and Russia is still exporting its oil. So far only US has sanctioned Russian oil which is only 2%. Unless I missed the news of others also sanctioning it, there is no scarcity yet. The only issue right now is the panic buyers and the broken system that sets prices of these things.

It is irrelevant whether they use bitcoin or not.
But generally speaking inflation can affect bitcoin price in my opinion in a very positive way. Energy crisis is hastening the inflation.

Yes they will sanction anything centralized. But they can never do anything to anything decentralized like bitcoin.

I will point out. It has not led to a shortage of oil, more than there was, it has led to a reduction of purchasable energy in certain markets. There is approximately the same amount of oil and gas in the world as there was before the outbreak of the war a few weeks ago; it is another thing if you do not want to buy from Russia. And it should be noted that the EU, for example, continues to buy gas from Russia, although it plans to greatly reduce the amount of gas it buys from Russia.

In addition, inflation and the rise in energy prices was already there, and the war has only exacerbated it.


Well, that's an unknown and if someone knew for sure what was going to happen he would easily become a millionaire.


Another unknown. Apart from the blocking of accounts of some Russian citizens in exchanges, I think everything will remain more or less the same. The only thing I hope is that more and more people will learn "not your keys, not your Bitcoin" for what it's worth.

They can sanction if for sure, but can they actually know who the owners of the wallets are? No.

So there is nothing to be afraid with crypto or bitcoin right now, yes we are in a war and it is really ugly but as bitcoin is decentralized no one can stop it today, not government that are in at war or nation that thinks bitcoin is being used by Russia to circumvent the sanctions.

This war does affect Bitcoin price but it’s not affected directly. By being affect directly would be if the Russians all bought Bitcoin with their rubles and caused the price to sky rocket. Which is not the case.

The way the way affect Bitcoin is that Bitcoin follows the global stocks. Not all the time but since covid it follows them pretty well.

So if the stocks start to go down due to the war so will Bitcoin. If the war is bullish like those analysis says then Bitcoin will follow stocks and also go up.

I dont think its an issue unless you are asking as one of Putin's cronies then possibly they might have funds lost with any contact with a mainstream company as usually theres a bank involved etc.    BTC overall isnt going to see a problem as its all open ledger and its possible to see that people have no contact with Russia most of the time.  I dont think they are perusing the Russia people just the elite who feed off the population to wage wars on civilians like we are currently seeing.

Last I heard is an attempt to lock down any gold sales, billions are stored in this form as an alternative to dollar foreign reserves for the reason of avoiding sanctions over war crimes.

i don't know if they really implement those rumours about freezing exchange account because surely it will be a big problem in the market as well, i mean there will be an impact in crypto market since most of them are now relying in crypto to bypass sanction..

And for me IMO i dont think that inflation of oil gas and etc can affect the market because they're not on the same market.. So its impossible.

This is true, once things have been settle on both sides and the supply of oil goes again in the market and there's a new supplier for USA. Then the price for everything is going to be down. Just like price of oil during the pandemic it was incredibly low, now it's the opposite.

But that didn't stayed for long, this time it's crazily high but I believe that it's not going to be up forever. Well, we just have to endure all the price increases and I believe that the impact will also go along with bitcoin's price and it'll increase.

I live in Ukraine and I don’t see that the current war with Russia has somehow changed the attitude of Ukrainians towards cryptocurrency. Perhaps now it’s somehow not up to her, or the fact is that the official national currency, the hryvnia, has fallen in price by only a few percent. At the same time, food prices have gone up a lot, some by two or three times.
I consider the difficulties with oil and the rise in its price to be temporary. A reorientation is taking place in the world: the market is being replaced from Russian oil due to aggression against Ukraine and imposed sanctions, to oil from other countries, including Iran and Venezuela. At the same time, Russia is steadily sinking.

The thing with bitcoin and markets in general is that having good news doesn't automatically convert into a price increase — this being a great example; after some people realize the importance of Bitcoin after the Ukraine-Russia situation and the Canadian Trucker protest situation you'd think that bitcoin should be rising in price. But what happened? It didn't. If anything, we've still been slowly but surely going down.

tl;dr there are so much moving parts in markets in general that you shouldn't be making decisions off individual "events".

Are you afraid? What's wrong with Bitcoin? Seems it has been playing fine. I can't see much effect on Bitcoin due to the current Russia-Ukraine war. Listen, Bitcoin is part of the global economy now and the volatility of Bitcoin is normal behavior. It's true a few bad news make people panic which leads to the dump for a while. The war directly affects oil since Russia is the one of Biggest oil exporters and Europe imports from there. No one still prevents Russian or Ukraine Citizens to use Bitcoin. They are free to do even in Ukraine collecting donations through Bitcoin.

The Russia vs Ukraine war doesn't affect Bitcoin price, the price only change little 0-5% per day which is a normal volatility by the market!

Either Russia or Ukraine before this war, doesn't ban Bitcoin and allow their citizens to use it. So this doesn't mean Russian and Ukraine citizens using Bitcoin during this war only! They also doesn't care with any asset or currency, because foods is the important thing for them.

Government can force centralized exchange to freeze Russian citizens, but they can't freeze non custodial wallet! This is why we need to avoid centralized exchange and use decentralized one.

The current event taking place in Ukraine have lead to scarcity of oil and inflation o commodities that needed oil...

But how does this events affects the price of bitcoin and crypto currencies in general since now Ukraine and people in Russia use crypto?

Are the government going to also sanction exchanges and wallet owners?

Please I need you guys views on this