Topic: Bitcoin Will Be a Failure Even If It Hits $100,000, Says "Black Swan" Author !! (Read 1020 times)

I greatly respect people who have a lot of knowledge on any subject, but it really seems very stupid for a person to say that, if bitcoin has already reached 70,000 dollars and right now we are at a very good price to buy, I don't understand that he says arguments so elaborate as to confuse people who do not know, it seems to me that it is a very dirty move.

This tends to confuse those who want to be part of the history of bitcoin, it is not the duty to issue such bad opinions.

The idea that they have to accept bitcoin and they are losing money because of that is a big big lie that is for sure. If they are not sure about accepting bitcoin then all they had to do was accept it, get it on their accounts and change it to fiat right away, right there.

Everything is expensive all over the world, and the cries for inflation being too high is reality, we had protests in my nation just about this a month ago, we literally took a beating (I was lucky few not to get it) by the cops because governments do not want it to be a big deal. All in all, inflation is real everywhere, and bitcoin has nothing to do with these people not making a profit.

It is frequently best to start at the beginning.

Just like in the wizard of oz.




It seems that I am saying more than that, but hey, you do what you can to absorb whatever amount you are able to absorb.

We (royal that is) cannot be forcing you to NOT to have fun staying poor.


Hahaha.. I said "hedge" and sure maybe "hedge" and "store of value" overlap in several ways, but they are not exactly the same concept.


Maybe... you are have some ability to argue the "always" point, but I doubt that we (at least this here cat) are talking about bitcoin as if it were ONLY a store of value (even though being a store of value is part of the package of what bitcoin seems to be, so it is not as if you are totally off base when you use that "always must be a store of value" idea).


Perhaps bitcoin is way too immature to be a strict store of value then.. at least in the sense that you are wanting to suggest that it is failing to be such store of value?  For the sake of argument, that point could be conceded while still appreciating that bitcoin is a hedge, and likely to be a great store of value in the future, especially if it ever comes close to reaching world reserve status.. which could take 20 years or it might take 200 years or longer to reach such world of reserve status, and then at that point, it might fit your idea of what is a store of value a wee bit MOAR better at that point than it does now.. and now it may well be a better thought of as a hedge rather than a store of value..


Well, bitcoin gives the Salvadorians options.  They can store value in bitcoin or they can store in dollars, and of course how they store their value should not be considered as an all or nothing proposition..

I believe several of the lightning apps allow for instant conversion to dollars if the Salvadorians want to convert from dollars to BTC or from BTC to dollars for low or no fees...

So I do not see what is the problem that you are having about El Salvadorans having options, even though it might be a bit of struggle for some normie folks to consider how much they should hold in dollars versus how much they should hold in bitcoin or other ways that they might choose to hold their value in other ways (such as buying chickens or property if they are able to buy property).

If they need to be somewhat liquid in how they store their value, and their expenses are denominated in dollars, then many times there are needs to manage cashflows so that you are not gambling with money that comes in through a business, so in that regard, there is a need to hold a decent amount of value in dollars in order to attempt to project incoming and ougoing money, so even though bitcoin is bringing a new kind of option regarding how to possibly hold value, those kinds preparations for cashflows considerations would be business basics, no?

Your reply is so very long I do not know where to begin hehehe. Everything in there is only telling me that bitcoin is an excellent form of speculative investment since 2012 which I very much agree. But not one thing of it implies it is good as a store of value. Zoom out? Why would someone zoom out? A good store of value must have a stable value always. It must have same value or very near the purchase value the next day, the next week, the next month, the next 3 months and so on. It must not be -60% in 3 months.



On top of soaring inflation, Salvadorans who trade or hold bitcoin are now feeling extra financial pain. “Everything, everything is expensive, which means we’re not earning anything,” says Carolina Reyes, a food vendor who accepts bitcoin in the tourist town of El Palmarcito. “And now everyone is losing their money in bitcoin. Imagine!”

Source https://www.newscientist.com/article/2324810-what-will-the-crypto-crash-mean-for-bitcoin-nation-el-salvador/

This is not the first time he has criticized Bitcoin, nor is he the only one. Who knows, he might even be a bitcoin owner. We know that we don't have that much knowledge like them, but if we could see the potential of bitcoin, then wouldn't you think they've already seen it? You know what I believe? How do rich people become rich? In a simple way, it makes poor people poorer. So it's simple. They have the power to mislead. If they create, then they force us to react. If we react, then they get their success. And their success means our loss. So in my opinion, we should stop reacting and then you can see how the markets are going to work.

1. Somethings about the space are better left and not spoken about. I understand the impact of the halving but a huge amount of money pumps the market, you might get the idea of the size of the amount for the pump soon.announcement of Increase in Interest rate of where fund are borrowed affect the dump last year
2. Bitcoin is in 4 year cycle and my 100k expectation is in following next bitoin bull
3. Money flow from bitcoin to altcoins, then back to bitcoin, this determines when the next altseason

Do you think they are the ones that determines the fate of bitcoin rise in price? We have many factors to rise and fall on bitcoin since it's volatile and what determines it worth rate also are dynamic, since the whole whales are not making a dump release at the same time all over the world, I don't think thier influence could make much significance in the price when demand.


We can't conclude on this since the next halving is yet to occur, so we are still expecting one to occur come year 2024, the ATH we had was that of 2020


This is altcoin and we are less concerned about it, it has no role in determining the rise of bitcoin price, bitcoin rises base on it market demand and supply, when bitcoin falls, other cryptocurrencies got brutally from it.

Whales is playing out sentiments on the peak of the price of the bull market, well might be disappointing that the technical analysis that predicted the 100k failed. I also believe EThereum with its size of market also disappointed especially with the slow process of hardfork, which could giving bit push on bitcoin. The space achieved more than 6 trillion dollars and bitcoin stayed above 30% throughout the market, also unprecedented after altcoins .

You seem to make quite a few of these kinds of negative short-term assertions about bitcoin, and I really have trouble figuring out how to give you much benefit of the doubt because you surely seem smart enough to understand that bitcoin is not a mature asset, bitcoin is a paradigm shifting asset and bitcoin is a potential threat to the status quo financial institutions and governments that likely exacerbate the kinds of tools that they bring to attempt to keep bitcoin's price down in the short term....

And sure, we likely should not be looking all the way back before 2012 in order to show how much bitcoin's price has appreciated, but it seems fair enough to look back 8 years or so, and we get way the hell more than the ("more than 10x) price appreciation that you conceded.  From where would you like to start?  From the jumping off peak in 2015 (of $250?  that is nearly 100x), or would you prefer to start from the bottom of the 2017 price crash of about $3k, that brings us around 8x...

OH no, you like to look at the BTC price performance (volatility) matter on shorter time frames.. .. but even if we were to have seen someone largely establishing their BTC position prior to September 2020, then their entry point could have reasonably and realistically averaged less than $10k per BTC, and they would have gotten a price rise that brought them up almost 7x, and then to have had come crashing down to around 1.7x, and then now only be floating slightly above 2x.. ..

But we are both in a battle, and we have BIG players coming into the space and gambling the fuck out of various kinds of crypto - and using bitcoin as collateral and/or their exit vehicle and/or trying to make unrealistic (greedy as fuck profits), which exacerbates BTC volatility, but does that exacerbated volatility really reflect as negatively upon bitcoin as you continue to like to point out with your ongoing negative Nancy proclamations about how much bitcoin sucks because it happens to be volatile during this phase of its life cycle (which is early as fuck if you had not noticed)?  How much adoption do you believe bitcoin has?  less than 1% no?  You likely have heard about Gresham's law, but maybe you don't believe that bitcoin is the soundest of moneys that has ever existed (or at least has a decently great chance of continuing to go down that path)?

Good luck to folks 10 years or more down the road, who know about bitcoin sufficiently well at this time (as you seem to do, bbc.reporter), but who fail / refuse to adequately invest into it... or who buy into negative Nancy theories about bitcoin being too volatile and not strong enough as an asset class, cry cry cry..

Even if you do not like the idea of zoom out.. it has more implications than what you are rebelling against - which maybe shows that you really are having struggles understanding where bitcoin is at and even the amazing levels of adoption that have already been built, even though bitcoin is still relatively small in size and small in terms of a lot of areas that it is going to continue to grow - and it has been growing, in spite your distractions about the price having to have happened to go down 75%-ish so far from its $69k top in November.  It's not as BIG of a negative as you are making it out to be, and you even seem to understand that before it went down 75%-ish, it had happened to have gone up around 8.5x or more (if we start from $8k-ish), so that would still leave us up around 3x within the past 2-3 years as I type this post... Do you think that you could have gotten BTC for average of $8k-ish per BTC in the 2 to 3 years ago window of time?  Should have been doable, no?

Why are you all seriously debating the propositions of a pseudointellectual twister, who is a fraud by his own standards?  Taleb thrives on attention and credibility.  He relishes controversy—but he needs to be taken seriously.  When he has shown such gross intellectual dishonesty that he boosted a scam to attack Bitcoin, he should be ridiculed and otherwise disregarded.

I don’t think that Bitcoin is perfect; to the contrary, I am harshly critical of much of the economically inept speculative nonsense in this space (especially PlanB! or any TA!).  I think it would be productive for people who are acting in good faith to discuss and debate that—in another context.  Here, you are just keeping Taleb’s name in lights.

Similarly as the threshold question to Faketoshi should be a demand for a Satoshi signature, discussion of Taleb should not reach anything beyond his appearance at that Coingeek conference.  It is as if a celebrity astronomer gave a speech at a Flat Earth conference, tacitly endorsed their agenda, and didn’t even give a hint that the Earth may be round.  Thereafter, does he retain even the slightest shred of credibility?

Craig Wright must really be laughing at all of you.  The U.K. courts have given him a free hand to ruin people’s lives with frivolous litigation.  A famous celebrity scribbler of ephemeral writings burnished his public image, then somehow continues to be taken seriously in his attacks on Bitcoin.  Money to support the BSV operation must be flowing from somewhere.  Before January 2020, I spent years writing Wright off as a low-grade scammer beneath attention; but I now see that he must be laughing at you.

I do not like this zoom out excuse that everyone likes to use to make it appear that bitcoin's high volatility is okay for a store of value. Store of value should be stable and it should give us an assurance that the value of our money today will be the same or close to this the next day, the next week, the next month or the next year. I do not like to be told zoom out because the value is down -60% in 3 months.

As a volatile risk asset and a speculative investment, zoom out is okay. I will invest and zoom out, I can see that I can have profit of more than 10x of my investment despite being down -60% today.

@tokyohd, in the interest of fairly apprising readers of the nature of the source, please change topic title from:


Gold’s extended bear market was much longer than that.  Also, that’s not a good argument to raise here:  Taleb is anti-gold (so at least he agrees with Jay about something!).  Indeed, at Calvin Ayre’s Coingeek conference where Taleb appeared alongside Faketoshi, Taleb explicitly raised the “demonetization” of gold as an argument against Bitcoin.

Taleb is against gold.  Taleb is against Internet gold, i.e., Bitcoin.  At least, he is consistent in deprecating anything that could help people escape from the corrupt, kleptocratic fiat financial system.

So what? Gold was in a bear market for more than 6 years. In fact, everyone who bought in late 2011 or during 2012 had to wait until 2020 just to recover the value of their initial investment.
Every market has its ups and downs, that does not mean it is a failure.

Zoom out a bit bbc.reporter, then perhaps you might be able to help ur lil selfie to see this situation a wee bit moar better.  Perhaps? perhaps?

I have my doubts about your ability or willingness to see the situation better, instead you want to get caught up upon short-term volatility, don't you?  You are having some difficulties seeing the BIGGER picture, no?  You realize that there is a BTC price battle going on, right?  a kind of war, no?  why would the status quo just give in upon the greatest wealth transfer in history?  I get the sense that you might not care so much about what is really going on, and instead you want to suggest that you are smarter than everyone else because of your supposed better insight about what is a hedge.

Also your example of buying at the top in either November or even in April 2021 suggest that people are employing lump sum strategies at the top of the market.  Sure some people do that, but it is not a very realistic approach for someone who is actually trying to "hedge" rather than gamble.

Accordingly DCA tends to be a very decent strategy in a hedging product, and has proven to be quite an effective investment (hedging) strategy for anyone with a 4-10 year time horizon or longer.  If you are presuming that hedging with bitcoin is going to play out in a shorter than 4-year time horizon, there has been some historical time frames that has proven to work out.. and surely there could be some time frames in the future in which such a shorter than 4-year time horizon might end up working out; nonetheless, it  seems that coming into a hedge/investment with a 4-10 year time horizon or longer would be the better way of thinking about what is a hedge and how to use bitcoin has a hedge.

Furthermore, if we find out that bitcoin ended up going down over 4-10 years rather than either up or maintaining its own, that still would not mean that it was not good to consider it as a possible hedge.. even if it ended up NOT performing as well as expected at the time of getting into it.

Don't get me wrong, I am not even proclaiming that anyone has to come into bitcoin for a minimum of 4 years in order for bitcoin to serve as a hedge and/or a potentially good investment for whatever circumstances in which someone might want to put some allocation into bitcoin - and everyone whether individual, institution or government has to way his/her/its own circumstances in order to figure out how to employ it and what strategies to employ.. while at the same time there are likely better general practices and approaches, but at the same time, every person/entity should be attempting to tailorize their own bitcoin strategy/approach in a way that they believe it to be able to serve for them, and using bitcoin as a hedge is one of the strongest of investment thesis, especially over the longer term.. and may well could be employed over the shorter term too..

Agreed. However, if you bought bitcoin on November 2021 at $60,000, your hedge for inflation is down more than 50% on top of whatever the inflation rate is on your country's fiat currency. Also, it took a very big amount of leverage to pump bitcoin from $3k to a $60k bubble. This does not appear to be a good hedge for inflation because it does not really hedge.

Bitcoin is good for many things but let us not continue this circle jerk that it is a very good hedge for inflation.

Why are people wasting time and energy arguing over what Taleb’s opinons?  Why do you take him seriously?  He is a fraud.  Keywords:  Coingeek, CSW, Craig Steven Wright, Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/nassim-nicholas-taleb-is-a-fraud-5408004

I understand that we are starting to deviate a bit from the topic, yet I still consider that these kinds of personal BTC investment portfolio management decisions are important in the abstract, and they also can have some relationships to the topic of this thread in the sense that bearish, contradictory or even quasi-incoherent statements from otherwise credible sources (referring to Taleb here) can sometimes contribute towards our failures to buy as much BTC as we otherwise would, to sell too much BTC too early, and/or not even realize/appreciate that we are selling BTC when we are "investing in projects" that might even be BTC related projects.

I have found that if we do not purposefully work towards paying attention to our investment into BTC is not sufficiently maintained, then there can come about circumstances in which our BTC investment is little by little eroded away and before we know it we have way too little exposure/stake into it.

It is so difficult to know how much that is or how much it should be, and I am pretty sure that between about late 2013 and early 2017, I was somewhat maniacle in regards to making sure that I replaced any BTC that I spent, so I was kind of focused to always be increasing my stash, so even if I sent someone $5 worth of BTC so they could get started with BTC, I would be sure to replace at least the balance of BTC that I sent and maybe even use that as an opportunity to increase my stash by a little, so maybe I would replace it with $7 worth of BTC, so in the end, I had gained $2 in BTC by engaging in that sending of BTC.  I might not have even been correct in the way that I was thinking about BTC, yet there was an incident (Sims porting) that happened to me in early 2017 that contributed to my concluding that I already had way more BTC than I needed anyhow - and allowed me to become less obsessed in making sure that I replaced every BTC that I had spent.

Another couple of things happened to me earlier in my bitcoin journey in both late 2014 and then mid-2015 that caused me to think about my BTC stash somewhat differently and had been building me up to my further attempt to detach from my somewhat obsession to continue to build my BTC stash that had been in place in early 2017 prior to the sim porting incident that ended up resulting in a decent amount of BTC that were taken from me in such a high quantity that I knew would be practically (and psychologically) impossible for me to even try to replace those BTC without really screwing up my finances (and putting too much psychological pressures on me).

In late 2014, I had already been accumulating BTC for a whole year, and I had not really been sure about what my BTC accumulation targets should be because in late 2013, I had provided myself a specific dollar amount budget to invest into BTC for the next 6 months, so in May 2013 when I assessed that I had pretty much spent that whole 6 month budget, I gave myself another six month budget that closely matched the earlier 6 month budget.. So therefore by the end of 2014, I was in a position that I had to reassess again having had used earlier two budgets for each of the two earlier 6 month periods, and I determined that if I look at the size of my overall investment portfolio, then my target should be to have the amount that I invested into BTC to constitute about 10% of the total of that overall investment portfolio, and so therefore at the end of 2014, I had realized that I had reached my 10%, so therefore I had no more needs to feel obsessed with continuing to have to accumulate more and more BTC, and even though I reached that determination - I still could not stop myself to continue to accumulate BTC through 2015 and by the middle of 2015, I had reached close to 13.5% of my total investment portfolio was in BTC, which therefore inspired me to recognize and appreciate that I had overinvested into BTC and therefore I could create a system in which I could shave off portions of my excessive amount into BTC without having to worry about having enough into BTC so long as I stayed above 10% in BTC.

I am not sure about the point that I am wanting to make, except maybe to show some scenarios in which any of us can end up creating a whole bunch of mental gymnastics for ourselves in terms of either attempting to justify what we had been doing, what we continue to do at the time of thinking about what we had been doing, and then how we are going to plan to go forward in terms of whether we need to tweak in terms of trying to either accumulate more BTC, to just maintain where we are at or maybe we might conclude that we need to shave off some of our BTC holdings in order to align ourselves with where we are at and where we believe that we want to go.
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The punchline might well be that each of us is on a kind of spectrum in terms of our level of obsession of BTC and how much we might consider our own valuations to be reached, so you might well have been less obsessed than me, and I consider someone like Michael Saylor to be way more obsessed than me in terms of percentages, but there are other ways to frame the matter too... so maybe I am just starting to go all over the place and deviating from the topic way too much.


Maybe my mind is not creative enough, but I am really having trouble understanding this part.  You might have been on a whole different plane than me, and I suppose that part of the reason that I had outlined the earlier hypothetical was an attempt to describe a situation in which some ordinary person who is just buying BTC and then selling too much on the way up might find himself/herself in a kind of psychological and financial pickle by selling too much BTC on the way up, and then the BTC price does not come back down to their sell point, and in my case I picked $30k-ish in order to give you some benefit of the doubt that you might have been able to at least get some profits along the way and even get above our previous ATH (of $19,666 from late 2017) before seemingly reasonably going to zero BTC or close to zero BTC.

I know that there are normal and even reasonable people who would have sold all of their BTC way earlier than $30k in late 2020.. right around the time the BTC price had crossed back above $20k-ish in mid-December 2020.  There were a lot of those folks in late 2016 and early 2017 too, when BTC was approaching getting back to $1k, there were so many folks explaining how they would be selling all of their BTC prior to $1k because they considered that $1k was not sustainable so they either wanted to take profits or to even buy back when they presumed that the BTC price would go lower and even return to below $500 prices.  Similar kinds of dynamics happened with our going above $20k in late 2020 - however, going back above $20k did end up playing out in quite more violent ways in regards to never really returning back down to anything even close to $20k.  In late 2020 and into early 2021, we pretty much got a non-corrected BTC price rise up to $42k, and then a correction down to $30k in January and then even a later correction down to $28,600 in May/June 2021, and so we did not get any kind of correction back down below $30k-ish until way down the road - which would have been June 12, 2022-ish - which is pretty fucking weird if I do say so myself, and I think so many folks have been surprised by how wickedly out of expectations our most recent BTC price correction has so far ended up playing out. .which surely could end up providing opportunities to get back in for folks who both got out of BTC in late 2020/early 2021, and who had not gotten back in.

So my points had been that there were so many ways that any of us could have gotten pretty damned wrecked psychologically and financially even run out of our BTC position by engaging in somewhat normal behaviors in terms of wanting to take dollar profits on the way up to $30k and reasonably expecting a correction that largely did not end up happening until our most recent seeming fluke..

But you, buwaytress, are describing your own personal circumstances as seeming to be even more bearish and maybe even more degenerate gambling.. hahahahahaha.. hate to start calling you names because sometimes I start to become a wee bit too hostile towards folks who insufficiently and inadequately prepare for UP, and from my perspective, even if you want to fuck around with trading and take various somewhat bearish stances in respect to bitcoin (maybe we are getting back to the Nassim Taleb perspective here?), for anyone who claims to know anything about bitcoin (studied it for 100 hours or more.. a kind of arbitrary number admittedly) there should be some level of BTC allocation in the portfolios of all of us that are both allocated in BTC and also to always be there.. so yeah, maybe someone who is really negative about BTC might ONLY have 1% (or god forbid, only 0.5%) into BTC at all times, but yeah, maybe I am showing some of my close-mindedness and overly bullishness too..

Getting back to your point about 2020 liquidation enforced (apparently at the $20k-ish price point) buwaytress, I don't know how any liquidation can be enforced unless you had been betting on down.. like some kind of a short position that you might have taken earlier on but you were in a kind of forced stop if the BTC price crossed above a certain price threshold.

How else could there be any kind of enforced liquidation when the BTC price was going up?

Upon reflection, I will likely disclose up front that I am likely not even going to call anyone any kind of names, including you buwaytress, even if you have really bearish ideas about bitcoin, and consider it practical to bet against bitcoin, and probably my greater inclinations to want to call names to guys like Nassim Taleb is because he seems to have a tendency to talk outside of both sides of his mouth, and so he has tendencies to spout out quasi-incoherencies and so invoking some of his academic status in the process.

On the other hand, forum members will sometimes change some of their perspectives in regards to the bullish case for bitcoin, which will also change their practices too... whether that is selling too much too early or even  betting against BTC with the use of margin or leverage (and god forbid naked shorts which seem to be some of the modern tools that have become more and more available)... In regards to naked shorts, I would love to see a $10k or even a $20k daily (or even 3-day) UPpity candle that would likely reck the fuck out of quite a few naked shorters, and we should recognize that bitcoin is surely capable of such explosive upward price performances (even Nassim Taleb likely fears those kinds of dynamics because he may well even honestly be able to recognize that some of the ongoing removal of BTC from exchanges has decent chances of contributing towards UPwards BTC price explosions and that seems to be part of the reason (giving him some benefit of the doubt) regarding why he can both be bearish about bitcoin and admit that the BTC price could go to $100k at the same time).


I can surely relate to anyone getting themselves into a kind of psychological and financial pickle, and surely some folks cannot ever get over some mistakes that they had made in order to end up buying at a BTC price that is higher than the price that they had ended up selling.. We have so many examples of those kinds of folks in history, and some of them participate in this forum in very bitter ways (to the extent that they can even admit to themselves that either they made mistakes or that there might well be justifications in terms of buying back at higher prices than the sold prices).

From my perspective, we should try to NOT let our past mistakes inhibit us in any kind of sunk cost fallacy way - even though I understand that there are some psychological tensions in that regard.

Nonetheless if we feel that we can reasonably establish a bullish case for bitcoin, then the question largely becomes how much and how to invest rather than whether to invest.  I will note here that there are also people who proclaim that bitcoin is way too damned volatile and/or that they have some of their own financial issues, but still the prudent and reasonable conclusion may well still end up being how much and how to invest into BTC rather than whether to invest.

My off the cuff categories of BTC accumulation and building a BTC allocation target is to attempt to establish a target level (whether that be 1% to 25% of the total investment portfolio) and a timeline to reach that target level, and the target investment can be considered both in terms of how much to put in and whether price appreciation (or depreciation) will affect how to evaluate the reaching of target levels, and sometimes the target levels could be reached fairly quickly because the amounts to move around are not that great relative to resources available.. and also there can be decisions whether to actually take from some existing investments or ONLY to invest based on the inflow of new cashflow or a combination of both, but then other times it could be decided that a various intermediate goals might be more practical to establish.. besides what to do more immediately, there can be targets for 3 months, 6 months, 1 year,  2 years, 5 years, and/or some other timeline targets.

The three main tools for BTC accumulation are DCA, lump sum and buying on dips, and surely they can be planned out in various ways from the start and even have differing degrees of emphasis as targets are reached. and of course, making so many plans at point 1 does not lock any of us into having to follow our previously established plans at point 2, so there can be aspects of our plans that are more rigid and other aspects of the plans that are more flexible and to be determined based on later conditions that become known at point 2, but were not known with any level of certainty at point 1.

Planning, following the plan, reassessing and tweaking the plan can be very empowering, even though there can be quite a bit of time used in the process and even a lot of confusion in terms of even having to deal with learning about yourself and attempting to tailor your plan to your various strengths and weaknesses... some of which might not be so clearly known, but going through the process of planning, carrying out the plan and reassessing can surely contribute towards our getting to know ourselves better.

Individual considerations in regards to making BTC investment plans include but are not limited to cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

The first ones on the above list are more basic, and the later ones on the list are more advance, so of course, on a personal level, I have frequently striven to get the basics in order before getting into the more advanced techniques. And more advanced does not mean that such techniques need to be employed merely because we might consider ourselves to be a sophisticated player or that they should be done just because you know how to do them..  From my perspective,  it is not a matter of how smart a person might be but a matter of figuring out adequate and appropriate proportion in terms of if any of the more advanced techniques (which includes selling on the way up) are actually employed before getting the basics in order first. Including there are likely ongoing needs to revert to contemplating the basics when market conditions are in a difficult to determine place and if you may well have uncertainties about some of your own circumstances based on such volatile and potentially wild market conditions..


Yep.. We always should make sure that we have some kind of adequate and sufficient emergency way of funding matters in order that we never would have to dip into our BTC investment except during times that are completely of our own choosing... and once we get to a reasonable allocation in bitcoin and even feel that we have a large enough stake in bitcoin, there can be reasonable and prudent ways to shave some of the profits off along the way up without devolving into gambling-like practices, and surely I become skeptical of the logical justification to sell BTC on the way up that would come prior to really having established a decently meaningful BTC stake, and I am also quite skeptical of any assumptions that people sell their BTC and expect that they are going to be able to buy back at lower prices.. sure it may well happen that any of us might well have sold some BTC on the way up and then end up deciding to use the proceeds from those sold BTC to buy BTC back at lower prices, yet my personal approach to BTC has never including selling on the way up and planning to buy back lower as any part of my intended plan at the time that I sell BTC and my presumption is that any BTC that I sell are not expected to be bought back at lower prices... so in order to even get to that kind of presumption, then there is likely a need to either be well into BTC profits (in terms of dollars) and/or likely in a kind of overallocation into BTC status... such as having 60% or more in BTC when the initial allocation might have been 10% or something like that.

I also consider that BTC is such an asymmetric bet to the upside, so in that regard, none of us should feel that we really have to be taking a large stake in bitcoin in order to potentially profit stupendously in a 4-10 years or even longer timeline.  

In traditional non-BTC type investing practices, many folks may well set a 30 to 40 year timeline to build up their various investments in order to potentially be able to retire or to say fuck you to working further and to live off of their investments, whatever those may have been.  There are a lot of folks who do not reach their targets, and end up having to considerably downsize their living style or even to have to work longer than they had expected because their investments do not end up working out (or they failed to follow anything close to a reasonable plan.. and hoping to win the lottery rather than really following some kind of prudent and reasonable plan).

I personally believe that with the existence of BTC (even if we are ONLY getting into it now), any of us have the potential to not only reach fuck you status,  but to cut the timeline down considerably in our abilities to reach fuck you status.. and sure, there is nothing wrong with being a wee bit aggressive with our strategies in regards to our BTC accumulation strategies, but each and every one of us needs to exercise enough prudence and reasonableness that we are not engaged in overly rushing the progress that causes us to gamble rather than invest.  So yeah I think that $100 per week is reasonably prudent for anyone with a decent income to get started into BTC and there can be some individually tailoring or even rethinking those kinds of matters down the road, and surely if we are ONLY able to put in $10 per week or even a lower amount because we hardly have any kind of cashflow, then we better not be putting in $100 per week if we can ONLY reasonably afford $10 per week, and we better get our financial shit together before raising our amounts to higher amounts, and surely there are some folks who neither have the cashflow and/or they are not in any kind of place in which they can expect to invest higher than $10 per week, and maybe even for some of those folks, they have to really consider that less than $10 per week is more practical and prudent for them in terms of how aggressive that they are really able to be.

So, I guess this last point is that there can be ways to establish some personally tailored ways to be sufficiently aggressive in getting into BTC, and not resorting to gambling and also having some decently good likelihood that getting into BTC has contributed towards your getting in a better place 5 to 10 years down the road and even longer timelines.

I still abide by his Anti-fragile principles. Especially in the current scenario. However, when BTC keeps showing the same signs of anti-fragility. He dismisses it. 

These are his personal opinions. Who knows what will happen tomorrow. Despite this, Bitcoin is the first ever cryptocurrency to be released into circulation. Also, the most trustworthy.

Thanks for that, and yeah, I did start getting BTC in 2016 -- not long after this forum account (had an older first account but I can't even remember the username and it was before I was even really interested) was made. I actually did all the right steps, inadvertently... getting BTC as frequently as I could, before price went above $1000 and even throughout 2017 and 2018. If I got any alts, it was because clients couldn't pay in BTC so I never said no.

Mistakes I learnt from was in 2017/18, was actually investing some of that precious BTC into a couple of projects. I guess many of us made that mistake. Glad I learnt that lesson though, I just don't do any of that now.

2020 liquidation was enforced. I had no choice. So that was really bad luck. By the time ATH arrived, I really didn't have much at all to make any kind of killing, and as I said, that liquidation sort of took my motivation away (imagine selling the same price as 2017 and then missing out on ATH by 11 months).

But now we're back here, and I'm really asking the question as you put it, how to rebuild, should I rebuild, and how not to make sure another 5 years or so goes by without me just getting so much heartache. Perhaps, how to account for emergencies so you don't feel so demotivated when your plans don't follow the script.

hahahah dont liseten FUD so much like all people above me said that bitcoin is proof of an asset can fight against inflation like Gold Did and give the fudder "DATA" of it so he can learn.

or this is another joke so he can buy bitcoin in much much lower price 

That was their thinking - we find it different from us as we are in the situation and we experience the ups and downs that could help to tell ourselves how reliable is this. No matter how many pump and ATH that we have, this still no sense to them as they are purely negative and the only things they will see are always negative as well.

We can't deny the reality, some people will understand how this work and spread good words about Bitcoin but those who are negative, can't even hear from them saying Bitcoin will succeed, it lives longer, they are simply asking it will die.

These people want to get some shadow, and find it a way to reveal these kind of statements. Something like a testing, but these people make their investments strong on cryptocurrencies and never reveal to the outer world. It might make some positive disturbance over the market. Always they want the market to be bearish for investment, as the focus will be in long term profiting.

So it means that we are in a lose-lose situation even if we hit 6 digits in the next bull run? Doesn't make sense though, but yeah I heard this kind of argument before and it's laughable and it seems that the author didn't graph want bitcoin is, and what is makes it successful even if it is still very young. Anyhow, we all know what he is saying is flawed in the beginning and let's wait for their next argument against bitcoin.

Did already looked at the other assets during this time? I think only real estate and gold have been stable but real estate is like the king. But despite that, he ignores the other good assets that everyone considers because they seemed to be a failure too as a hedge against inflation.
Well, they'll see that it'll surpass $100k soon and it's just a matter of time. No matter what they say about it and stand for, those that understands the economics and potential of bitcoin will continue to believe on it and we all do.

Of course, either I don't know your specifics or maybe I forgot some of them, but each of us can end up going through dilemmas in terms of how to treat our BTC investment/holdings.  I remember making more mistakes in my earlier years of investing (not even talking about bitcoin) because sometimes there can become some paralyses regarding where to put the value - and at the same time some compelling forces luring us to spend the money or even to put the money in places that are more like consumption rather than investment.

The same could end up coming true in bitcoin, and maybe an example might help.  I will use your September 2016 forum registration date to create my hypothetical.

Let's say that if maybe we might have had $30k in our whole investment portfolio in September 2016, and we decide to supplement our overall investment portfolio with BTC between September 2016 and June 2017.  We make some mistakes along the way, but overall we do not feel to bad about getting about 5 BTC for an average price of $1,500 per BTC (so we spent $7.5k total to make our overall investment portfolio $37.5k).

Between mid-2017 and late 2020, we go through a lot of UPs and DOWNs in BTC, and even if we presume that we did not make any further mistakes, we may look at the non-BTC portion of our investment portfolio went up about 50% during that time from $30k to $45k, and we may see that our BTC holdings went up from $7.5k to $150k (presuming a BTC price of about $30k).

Accordingly, we may feel very tempted to sell some of our BTC at $30k each (which would be $120 if we sold 4 BTC), and so if we sell at $30k, we have largely made a killing in terms of the dollar profits, but still we end up seeing the BTC price go up to $69k and then does not really correct back down below our earlier selling price, so we consider about whether we had done the right thing when we sold nearly all of our BTC stash.

 Yeah, maybe I am describing a scenario that was even better than what you ended up doing, but we can still get the idea that sometimes we make mistakes along the way in terms of how we might handle our BTC (and our psychology), even if we might have made overall dollar profits, we sometimes might have suffered a lot because our plan was not strong enough or even seemingly sustainable enough.

So yeah.. then the question become... whether to rebuild our BTC holdings and how to go about doing it in a more sustainable and less emotional way, including attempting to account for a longer rather than shorter investment timeline in regards to our BTC holdings.

Some fair words to many of us. I did realise sometimes last year my activity levels have fallen off slightly ever since I had to liquidate a significant portion end of 2020. e.g., no longer aggressively looking for ways to use Bitcoin instead of cash, and being a bit more relaxed with my own DCA. I thought it might have been because I felt I was suddenly BTC-poor, so late in the game.

Took a dip below 20k again to remind me it's never "too late" to rebuild.

As they are not please to do that. Negative people really exist and what they saw is just the opposite side of the positive view of the market. Can't rid of them.

Speculators and market expert can have their own view on the market chart. They are more suspicious of the incoming rather than being in reality. Well, we have to understand that nobody could perfectly predict what will happen next that is why I don't say they are right but probably are wrong.

Even how Bitcoin shows them everything yet people like them will always has something negative to say .

because at some point they are really not telling the truth instead they are making stories just to make the market rush so chances of buying more will be on their side.

why not stop spreading this kind of statement OP? instead of posting here better to let us not spread the words so there will no other effect in market.

because the more we published their words is the more they will speak like this.

I don't disagree with your overall points mindrust.  But BTC price does matter on a number of levels, and one of the interesting aspects of bitcoin remains that the token with value contributes with the facilitation of incentives to get people to build on it, speculate on it which contributes to the ongoing building of various other network effects in which value continues to flow into it as the soundest of monies/assets to ever have had existed and also having absolutely no real competitors, yet.. even though it has a lot of imitators and competitor wannabes - and of course enemies too.. and at the same time, sooner or later the whole world is going to have some stake in bitcoin, even if it may well take a decently long time to play out - 200 years-ish?

Many of us already realize that bitcoin has value and has already contributed to society, even if it were to go to zero, yet at the same time, if we study it for a sufficient amount of time, we also appreciate that bitcoin remains as such an asymmetric bet to the upside that we do not need to invest a whole hell of a lot into it in order to be able to profit stupendously from it and also potentially to become rich as fuck from it at the same time... sort of like killing two birds with one stone.

So yeah, like many in this thread have already said, bitcoin is already a success... yet on a personal level, we still should be attempting to figure out what are we going to do about it in terms of our own allocation levels and just ongoing considerations about how or if to include bitcoin into our lives.. and surely some of the no coiners and bitcoin naysayers may well just fight the whole idea of bitcoin until their deaths (even if they are likely smart peeps in other ways), and surely some folks will also way underallocate into BTC and even come into BTC way later than other folks... so even if systemically the late comers are likely to still benefit from bitcoin, they may well not end up benefiting as much financially as the earlier of adopters and not as much as those of us who have either aggressively invested into bitcoin (without going overboard) or at least ongoingly paid attention to having building and maintaining a sufficient stake in bitcoin during our lifetimes.


Your accusation is not completely detached from reality, but it is pretty damned close because you seem to be propounding that Bukele's approach to bitcoin goes beyond his authority - and that's why you use the term "gambling" rather than investing in terms of describing what he is doing and maybe even failing/refusing to consider that buying bitcoin or even sending out bullish and seemingly pumpening tweets about bitcoin is ONLY one aspect of what Bukele is doing in the name of El Salvador and in respect to bitcoin.

In other words, government officials are authorized to spend public money for purposes that they believe are beneficial for the population or meant to address some kind of a public need that he (as a representative) believes the spending of the "people's" money may well help to address.


So fucking what?

Some policy decisions are more controversial than others, so the more controversial ones have risks.  Perhaps it might be better if he were to spend money, take risks and employ resources to try to take over Honduras, instead?


Yes.. hopefully he is engaging in reasonably excessive custody practices and not carrying the 2k plus bitcoins on his phone.


I agree with everything in your post, but this seems to be a weird assertion. 

Nassim Taleb being negative as always. I liked his books and read them all, he gives a good perspective about risk and that humans tend to underestimate the risks of big negative events (tail risk). The problem is what negative effects are there if you invest some of your money in crypto currencies? Sure you could lose some money, but so you can when investing in stocks or commodities. He doesn't know with 100% certainty that cryptos are going to fail and he also doesn't give us an alternative that is going to make us money with certainty in an high inflation environment. Right now there is no correlation between rising inflation and a rising bitcoin price. But for someone who bought bitcoins 5 or 10 years ago it was a pretty good hedge against inflation. I think it's wrong to only look at the recent bitcoin price movement and only use it to for your analysis.

I read the article on U.today, now you @tokyohd I will ask you, do you believe what Black Swan said? Because I can't see the logic that even if the price of 100k $ per Bitcoin is still a failure for him. Is it because of inflation? I just asked. Almost everyone knows that Bitcoin started at less than 1 $ since 2009 and the history record of the highest Bitcoin price in the market is 69k $ over and now it has fallen to 19k $ over the market today. . Thinking from the price of Bitcoin then being less than 1 $ now which is 19k $ plus a BTC can you say it is a FAILURE?

Then can you say that Bitcoin is a failure if its volume on various cryptocurrency exchange platforms is around 2.7B$ more than Binance that is, there is no other exchange, can you say that Bitcoin is a failure?

Crypto market is like any other market which is volatile. Nassim Taleb has made an economical claim which is not a statistical one. People don’t buy dollars while it is depreciating and is becoming cheaper. Whereas, in the case of bitcoin the opposite is happening.

I do not think this has too much of an effect on bitcoin, after all how many people actually know who Taleb is and what he has done? A minority at best, and many of those will simply not agree with him as his posture seems to be completely against bitcoin for no valid reason at all, so the effects of any statement he could make about the future of bitcoin are minimal, but if that is the case then why make the statement if this is something he already knows as well? And most likely this is just a free way to promote himself and whatever books he has released recently or wants to release shortly after he made such a statement.

Some people make up their minds, and it is not the thing their mind believes. One such kind is this person. In simple there are people who show themselves as vegetarian, but he/she is much interested and the mind always tempt for it. But, to the outer world they show themselves as vegetarian believing it as pride or for some silly purpose. This is what he's doing with bitcoin.

many people is speaking evil of cryptocurrency and if you follow the way people is talking of Bitcoin you won't invest in cryptocurrency but i know is that Bitcoin no matter what people say about bitcoin it will not hiders the movement of cryptocurrency ro grow, why government is against Bitcoin is not officially known but people who is speaking evil of Bitcoin don't have any point of saying so, so don't depend for their talk

He won't be convinced that bitcoin has already succeeded because he's a great opposition, and that he would always prefer to tell about negativity of bitcoin and criticize for that. However, only fools and with the same mindset of him will only believe that bitcoin is a huge failure, and that won't be our loss either. As long as bitcoin threaten the whole fiat system, i think that proves alone that bitcoin did not failed but almost overcome the performance of fiat.

I have seen many celebrities speak ill of bitcoin, but I think that this strengthens bitcoin because it makes it more famous and makes it reach many places where they do not know about this technology, more than 5 years ago perhaps if bitcoin was spoken ill of, the people paid attention to them, but now say whoever says it speaks ill of an asset that represents money, people will begin to be interested and when they realize that it is not so they will begin to buy.

Perhaps there is just no getting through to this guy, seems like his mind is made up and there is just no win for bitcoin in his eyes, even $100,000 and the innovation it has brought to the world be damned, damn. 

The oppositions of bitcoin will never agree that bitcoin is already successful and is going to be a mainstream, and as bitcoin enthusiasts, we should be aware of that. That is why there's no valid reasons to believe in this mathematician as he never existed in the crypto market when its still in its infancy, and until now that bitcoin has grown and slowly starting to be matured. Even if bitcoin ends up being non valuable in the future, i would not say its a failure because bitcoin has made a lot of big changes in our lives, and we should still be thankful for it.

I seriously don't know what you're trying to say here but honestly, I don't think that the investors like you or me had ever made a wish for a particular and specific price and at the same time thinks that it will be like that permanently. Do you think bitcoin will grow in the past decade if that's the case? Of course the answer would be a big NO.

The answer is very simple. They come out in the bear market because they find a lot of support from people who lost money and feel bad about investing. They also don't see a lot of enthusiasm from bitcoin community to fight them because most people feel exhausted by a prolonged bear market and prefer to do other things and not look at the price. This makes bear market an ideal moment to express your negativity about something, pretty much like when police raid takes place at your neighbor's and bystanders watch it all and there's always that one guy in the group who says "I knew there was something fishy about him, he's probably a drug dealer or a gang member" and some others nod their heads in support and say "I never liked him too".

If you've been here on this market for a while then these calls or simply these FUD's wont really be that much effective nor could really affect the market overall.We know that adoption and recognition is on the move
or do progress as years passing by and its position into the market does signifies its superiority among other projects or coins in the market which i dont really have any doubts about it.Getting used to into those
sentiments or fuds is something  you should really need as an investor or supporter of bitcoin or in crypto as a whole.They would be continuing on throwing out fuds and other sentiments which isnt something
new or can be seen into this cryptospace so getting used to it would be the key and act normally.

His opinion has already fallen into FUDs, which aims to shake the market but that was only before as bitcoin investors and traders today are now more knowledgeable and more experienced so they are not really threatened by negative criticisms. He can be a commentator and stick on ruining bitcoin, but he will never succeeded on it because bitcoin will never fall into a worthless value, and the people are becoming mostly aware about it.

There are nothing new when it comes to bitcoin attacks. Those words are only good for those who are still naive about bitcoin, but for those who already know bitcoin well, these set of words will always be insignificant. And that bitcoin has never been a failure, because if it is, then majority of the people are dumping bitcoin by now. Instead, they never stop taking chances to buy as much bitcoin as they can. That only proves that bitcoin is still highly valuable.

Haters are talking about Nayib Bukele's losses due to the recent dump. But have you imagined when he is buying more means his average price has been reduced? Who is holding Bitcoin they aren't holding for today. They are holding for the future. Just imagine what will be the profit even if Bitcoin touches ATH again? We know very well Bitcoin repeats its history. So nothing is impossible. Bitcoin isn't a failure even at the current price, forget about the 100K range. Haters always will find a way to create FUD. Lovers will find a way to create FOMO, this has become a general practice. There is no actual concern about their predictions.

They can say so even if Bitcoin reaches to $1 million. They don't like Bitcoin so they will igonre all achievement it has gotten and will get in future. If you can not convince them, let them be with their limited viewpoint. You don't have to try to change them.

They missed a difference between price and value. Having volatile price does not mean it fails to grow and maintain its value. Value decides by ultility and use cases for people that Bitcoin already succeed. It dont fail to increase its value.

You are right. But at same time I feel he has financial advisors, he has a team he believes and also has has some bitcoin experts advising him. Tbh, investment into a bitcoin is first considered a gambling before it is called an investment.  This could be the reason for the famous rule of not investing more than what you will lose.
El Salvador is already in it, selling at lost will be disastrous to them. Waiting till bull run might look unending. Buying again at low is a wise decision though. Before btc will get to $40k they should be running into profits.

Talking about his political career, I think it's already in decline, we are waiting for bitcoin to save it.

For security of fund, bitcoin is very secured but I don't know of El Salvador end, but a country should be able to have a great means to secure her fund.

I think we heard series of stories concerning the failure of bitcoin early from 2017 to 2018 which many predicted to be the end of bitcoin but take a look at today bitcoin still gains more popularity ever since then.
There problems is they fails to study much about Bitcoin and its futures, is very easy to air out all such of statements concerning its progress, which many people kept listening ear to them, at last same people would secretly go buy Bitcoin to keep others in the dark.
For my experience so far from here i hardly pays attention to all news about bitcoin.

This is not the first time am hearing this negative statement about bitcoin on BTT since the bear market started. So many people have come out to air out their views and I think this is no longer funny, we can not stay away from bad and discouraging posts here since it has already been seen as a thread, I think the best thing to avoid this kind of heart touching stories about bitcoin is to get them moved to the trash because it adds no value nor does it teach bitcoiners anything good order than making them feel that all they Invested is dead and buried, we have to avoid people who will add no meaningful things here.

I have no idea about what he truly believes about bitcoin and I don't really care about it, there are many authors and analyzers who believe the project failed to act as a hedge against inflation and there are some other people who believe in the opposite way in meanwhile the truth can be discovered from the chart of price and what we see on the market, just a few years ago when the price was below 20K these people were saying bitcoin is too expensive and that's a price bubble and now in nearly the same price they say bitcoin failed because of that, while it's not a logical statement by this author.

There is no doubt that the man has a very firm and clear attitude towards what he does (unlike many others), but even though it may seem like the right way to us, he does not invest his money but the money of all his citizens. No matter how much we believe in Bitcoin, we have to admit that he is somehow gambling with money that is not his, and at the same time, he is risking his political career in case anything goes wrong. At the same time, I don't think that only the price is the most important factor, but also the security of the Bitcoin he buys - in case of hacking or some kind of embezzlement, he would quickly turn from hero to tragic.

You might be right because people will never be contented in anything they are desiring , like at some point they are wishing this to reach 1k ,  then after 10k, and then now 100k , so what will be the next?
the only permanent thing here? is that what they wanted to see and bitcoin to achieve and when they fail, always the blame for bitcoin .

Which would be understandable if it was only Bitcoin they got, but the thing with these guys is they also got into other shitcoins, probably even into stocks and other assets, and they will not be going into other shitcoin forums or stock forums and yell the same things. As you say, better to ignore I guess. Can't help sometimes.


That's the nature of evolution, I think Bitcoin will end up being very different things to what was originally envisioned but the thing is OP was complaining as if this was what (inflation hedge) Bitcoin was supposed to be, when it wasn't. Not to the point he was trying to make anyway.

Deflationary currency isn't the same as inflation hedge I would say. Inflation resistance maybe.

Bitcoin will continue to generate blocks, roughly every 10 minutes.

Transactions will continue to be made all around the world, 24/7, unrestricted.

New services will continue to be built on top of Bitcoin, such as lightning.

Not sure how that is a failure, independent of the price of it, which most probably will continue to rise.

I think he just wants to be featured in https://www.bitcoinisdead.org since I haven't see him there yet.

You won't find a fail or success in bitcoin.

All you can witness is a legacy that bitcoin bring into our lives , no matter in term of funcionality , impact and various benefit.
Sometimes even if you clearly seeing a huge impact made by bitcoin ... it could still be considered as a failure at someone else point of view.

Whenever the market bleeds we can see more such statements of failure and death. No matter what different people think about bitcoin, it grow of its own. When such negative statements reach the noobs, they hesitate to make their entry into the market. So, whenever such statements were putforth by different people good is to stay away from such discussions.

Based on what people has experienced during the pandemic, showed that nothing can bring Bitcoin down or to become a failures in future. People that really understood Bitcoin know that, this is the best time to buy bitcoins and hold for the Market price to look good before he or she can supply to market to make a passive incomes. Many countries has tested bitcoin investment in their land to believe that bitcoin can help many countries to grow their economy, and their citizens in the land. Nothing will happen to bitcoin because Satoshi the founder of Bitcoin created it to solve the problems of financial institutions in our land.

I don't understand his logic about the bitcoin failure. Saying that even if bitcoin make $100k, it will still fail doesn't actually make sense. Maybe even if bitcoin make $1m, it will still fail.
It's just like saying even if I live upto 100yrs that I will still die. Is he coming from the premise that whatever that has a beginning must surely have an end?

Talking about El Salvador President Nayib Bukele, he is a great man and needs to be celebrated. From henceforth I consider him one of my bitcoin heroes. Holding strong and standing strong amidst bloody market and even buying more is a show of great believe in bitcoin .

Am still yet to understand why it is only when the market is bearish that all this critics start to come out from where ever they've been hiding, well, talk is cheap indeed, for if we were to buy talk in the market the same way we buy goods and services, people would be more mindful of what to say or talk about, people wouldn't go out saying irrelevant things.
It is only fools that listen to and believe foolish talks.
For me, it doesn't matter what the price of Bitcoin is, Bitcoin is already a huge success, Bitcoin is freedom from financial slavery, and this, it has upheld since its inception.

The price of Bitcoins does not put a value on the success of Bitcoins as a whole, having a currency since 2009 and it being governed by none and still on the market in 2022 does make it a huge success already, they need a hedge against inflation ofc, who said it has to be bitcoins, it can be but the volatility does not make sense in the same sector. I do think that you have to understand that market if ofc an uneventful thing and you cannot peg all your hopes onto a crypto and publicly shame it, if it's not according to your standards, we have seen Elon musk do the same, trying to use the public platform and move the price as well.

He is one more in a row who is unable to see things from the right perspective, and like the majority, believes that Bitcoin was created to make people rich overnight, or to beat inflation overnight. People who invested in Bitcoin at different times have different opinions - the one from 2015 says that Bitcoin is an excellent hedge against inflation, the other who invested at prices higher than $20 000 obviously has a completely different opinion.

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I personally do not see any logic in paying attention to people like this - let them have their own opinions - because regardless of the price and adaptation that Bitcoin will have, they will always look for a way to sell their negativity.

Bitcoin has already reached a current price of less than a dollar, I think it's already a success.

I don't know how people define failure but as an investor and bitcoin enthusiasts, we have our own belief and personally, I will not support anything that is not seeing bitcoin as a legit digital currency and as an opportunity.

We won't be able to avoid this, we will read positive and negative comments on bitcoin, it's only up to us on how we will evaluate things.

Most recently, Taleb "changed his shoes." There was a time when he wrote about bitcoin as a future and reliable asset, but he knows how to "change shoes", and surprisingly very quickly.

Now he predicts a complete collapse of bitcoin. People like to be consistent, so he writes about it. And no matter what happens in the future, there will be an analyst guru who will say that his predictions were correct.
I do not believe Taleb, and only time will tell us if he was right in his fortune-telling, and even more, insulting people who believed in bitcoin.

To create a digital economy in the long run, some people must sacrifice their fiat moneys to hold the coins for the prices to stay up.

In addition, to create a stabilized cryptocurrency, the amount of buying and selling must even out mostly. This is how you form a hedge against inflation.

We're not getting this hedge because idiots keep buying the peaks in a delusion that they will become rich, and are selling the dips in a fantasy to avoid total devstation.

What they don't realize is that once you buy a large amount of coins, you must keep holding it. Any attempt to sell at any price, high or low, will cause the market to plunge. What do you think will happen if Satoshi sells his coins (if he is indeed still alive)?

In this way, the people who hold the massed coins become something of an uncoordinated, decentralized "central bank".

Now for these idiotic price swings to stop, two things must happen:

1 - People have to stop treating Bitcoin as a stock that can be shorted and longed, that is what's causing all these waves in the first place.
2 - People must stop thinking that crypto is going to make them rich, but this will be hard to achieve while every new idiotic "money-making" technology is created on Ethereum's chain (the second largest market-cap cryptocurrency). If [when] Ethereum's devs stop rolling out new types of these technologies, crypto will suddenly become boring to most people and the prices of all cryptos will stable out. it will also stop the surge of shitcoins being created solely for money-making purposes.

You don't have to. First, because there are times when an invention goes beyond what its creator foresaw, and second, because the fact that it was not explicitly included with the term inflation hedge in the whitepaper does not mean that it was not foreseen for it, being a deflationary currency, with a decreasing supply and with a total production limit of 21 million, it looks quite like inflation hedge.


I agree with this. Focusing on the short term when analyzing bitcoin is foolish.

When I see or hear things like this, I smile. I didn't blame Nassim Taleb because even the world is a free world. As for me he is expressing his freedom of speech and thought. He is not the only person to criticize bitcoin. His prediction has no locus standi, that it has no concrete standing in the court of bitcointalk. Therefore it is null and void.
Also using one country's down fall for generalization is optional. If El Salvador lost $50, 000,000 worth of bitcoin another country might not lose such. Because it all about research and planning. And as you said, El Salvador has bought another 80 BTC again as for me that is a good purchase.
Bitcoin is not a stable coin so anyone dealing with bitcoin put it in his or her mind that it will go up and down. So with that you have to buy the ones you afford to lose if happened. As it is, Bitcoin is all time high

But why are we so concerned about this hedge against inflation which, anyway, was never even what it was supposed to be. I mean if it was, we would have seen something about it in the Bitcoin whitepaper right?

Secondly, how is it a failure if a currency that is able to buy MORE tomorrow than 10 years ago? Yes maybe Bitcoin tends to be cheaper than months and years ago, but make the time >5 years and it is always more valuable.

Which fiat can say the same?

It's a free world and free people are allowed to say anything. That doesn't necessarily mean that we all have to believe what other people are thinking. I am hearing "bitcoin is dead" from prominent personalities since a long time now. Did it happen? Nope!

Bitcoin is going through a bear cycle coupled with economic issues all around the world. So the recovery may take longer. Also failure and success have different parameters for each individual. So I don't feel bothered when I see someone is taking a dig on bitcoin. It's normal and it will never end.

He is not the first person that has run his mouth like a tap by discrediting bitcoin performance all this while, we have had many of them from other finances who are afraid of bitcoin becoming the next revolutionary asset as described by Satoshi in his paper. The problem of the current market performance is global, we know that inflation is one of the factors but we all can agree that in every bull market, the bitcoin ecosystem always seems to have new investors that will all want to buy bitcoin while some are not too prepare for it and the moment the market react, they sell to losses. We have also seen 3 bad events like 3 arrow capital, celsius and other insolvent lending protocols that affected the bitcoin price. If he can't see these things, he should focus on his book and allow bitcoin to do its thing.

We have so many of these kind lol , we are having difficulties  to even listen to what they said because most of them are  liars or seeking attention from the crypto community and in the real world? they are publishing this just to make the price lower for them to purchase more.
we have seen like them many times before and when the second end they are buying .
lets not fall into this trap of dumping the price for the manipulators to get more money.

Nassim Taleb sounds really butthurt. Did he lost money in a crypto scam or something?
He's just hating on Bitcoin. This isn't some logical and rational analysis. It's just pure hating and trolling.
Why does he even care about Bitcoin being a failure or not? He clearly hates all Bitcoiners, why don't he just let them deal with the consequences and don't bother about Bitcoin. I consider myself a Bitcoin maximalist, but I don't know what will happen with Bitcoin after 5 or 10 years. It might be a failure indeed and guys like Nassim Taleb will be like "I told you so". Just let Bitcoin go it's path. It might be a failure or it might be a success. Nobody can predict this for sure. Anyway, I really that 100K USD "failure" to happen.

I don't see any situations that which Bitcoin will be a failure, as long as the network will be up and kicking, it will be not a failure for me.
People are still using it and regarding the price of Bitcoin, it's still working, you can still use it as payment.
I think people base how Bitcoin is becoming successful or a failure on the price of Bitcoin, and how it dumps and pumps.

 

In other words, no matter if BTC can be returning back to almost nothing or it would get into the dreamed $100K zone, it will always have famous, not-so-famous and unknown critics all over the world. The thing is that they are expecting Bitcoin to be perfect all the time, in all occasions and must fit to the needs of all people. I don't think Bitcoin is made that way...and maybe this so-called expert Taleb entertained many imagined ideas on Bitcoin...he must have a victim of hearsays and he is using them to prove his point. Anyway, when BTC can be out of the crypto winter time, people this man is going nowhere to be found. In its normal cycle, during winter days, the media seems to be preoccupied with finding critics of Bitcoin and have them the days of their lives...for the purpose of getting more eyeballs to their contents.

Taleb is just using an appeal to authority fallacy here, since he has some influence and wrote some books about the economy suddenly according to him we must believe whatever comes out of his mouth and treat it as truth without any evidence, but for that to happen he will have to be an expert on bitcoin and an agreement among those experts about the future of bitcoin would need to be reached, but neither of those conditions are true, so he will need to show strong evidence of his statements and yet the opposite is the truth, the evidence shows bitcoin is a huge success already and if anything it is bound to reach even greater heights during the next years.

Hi everybody,
This is my first participation in this forum.
This guy is highly educated person. I have read about his theory "Black Swan".
According to his theory the bitcoin could be considered a "Black Swan" which may change the whole word and human history.
I believe that his theory goes strongly against his opinion about the bitcoin.
Bitcoin is here to stay and to guide the financial world.



 

Nassim Taleb may consider himself an expert but with his crypto points of view, it just shows that he's very irrational and illogical. How would bitcoin be a failure when it started with a $0 value and then it keeps on surging when the people realized its potentials. Currently, bitcoin is $19,728, so just imagine how far had bitcoin achieved in just a decade. And its most likely to reach another ATH when this current market condition will recover. Despite of all bitcoin's attacks and oppositions, it's still flattering to know that a lot have still decided not to give up and continue to tighten their faith in bitcoin.

This seems to me another one seeking attention. Or acting like that is because he fears something he doesn't like Or maybe both. He claims something but nothing to back it up. Ridiculous attempts to bring Bitcoin down at all costs. I would be ashamed, but that's only me! Trash talk, shit chat, etc! lol Keep it up!

They not losing any cents if they didn't sell their assets bought and for now maybe you see negative result towards what they do because market is on negative shape. But we are not going to see always red days as bitcoin always shows that it recovers after the dump so for sure in future what currently they do know will be beneficial for them in future especially when next halving exist again.

Kinda pointless to talk about succeeding or failing if you set arbitrary goals for these terms. If Bitcoin continues to grow in the long run, it would mean that it succeeded as an investment, without being a hedge against inflation or stock market and broad economy. Also the fact that some people use it for payment or money transfers also counts as success, even if its very limited. Failing to achieve certain milestones doesn't mean that Bitcoin generally failed.

If people like this can have the boldness of coming out in claiming this just to deceive people and discourage them to achieve the height he himself never thought of, i would have love to ask him what has he made out of fiat currency over all these while, now that bitcoin has come to help and cover up the lapses and failures in the traditional system of payment yet many are running to take good positions in it while someone like him will sit down and continue with the fold of hands, discouraging others.

I'd really like this guy in an argument with someone from the other side because he doesn't make much sense.

Inflation in the last few years was at on the average above 3% in most developed countries.
In the last 3 years Bitcoin went from a 5k price range to the average of 7k in 2020 and 20k in 2021. Right now it's trading below the average which is why people say that it's cheap, but it still is above the average range from 2019 and 2020, so if you bought between January 2019 and November 2020, you hedged well against inflation.

If you bought at 3k in 2019 you're up 600%, if you waited until 10k you're still up 100%. Holding money in the bank would mean a minimum loss of 2% a year so you'd be down 6%.
Please explain how it's a failure, Mr. Taleb?



Somebody should tell him that crypto is not bitcoin.

Word.

He's right about Bukele being an idiot and burning taxpayers' money.
He's also right about bitcoin turning into a memestock, just another risk-on asset.

In all of this he's missing bitcoin's true potential, and I don't blame him. Given how crypto has become a cesspool of scams.

Reads to me like someone jumping on a trend, with how the current market is looking, and the wider issue of a global recession, people will be believing this for a while, and that might increase sales for their books.

I wouldn't look at this statement, and expect a sound, logicically approach. It's simply a marketing scheme, which will likely work. Doesn't matter if they're wrong in the long term, people would've already forgot. However, when you look at it short term, people are going to be like; "they were right!", and look at his work. Since, it's very probable that if we hit $100k tomorrow, we'd have a price correction not long after that, and then they'd be able to bask in that glory for a little while.

To be honest, I'm not overly familiar with their work, but if you're going to make bold predictions at least go into depth on why you think so.

Overall, nothing statement which likely has an agenda attached to it. Also, ignore people's titles, mathematician doesn't really make his reasoning any more sound. Judge people on their logic, not their titles.

I pity people who even have time to listen to his trash and even follow him.

Just look at his argument. It's totally illogical and probably based on stupid emotions. I am pretty sure he's finding it hard to swallow his words. He probably never expected Bitcoin to even go beyond 20K in the previous bull run.

Look at all  this tweets 

Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-compared-bitcoin-to-a-disease-called-it-a-speculative-bubble-and-warned-it-was-worthless-here-are-his-8-best-tweets-about-the-crypto/ar-AASTQ31

He must be speaking from someone who bought at 69k experience and not From below otherwise his view on this subject would be clearly different. Btc have managed to keep fighting. The problem is not about not knowing but ready to acknowledge the real fact. They always like to say the negative even when the truth is right in front of them.

It does not matter who said what. Ray Dalio, one of the biggest macro investors confirmed that he personally owns Bitcoin. Bitcoin was not designed to be a hedge against inflation! We keep making this assumption. It could become a hedge against inflation, but for that to happen it probably needs to receive higher adoption. It is legal tender only in a few states for now. People need to fortify their confidence in this asset until it becomes a instrument that protects you against inflation in the short term. Until then the inflation protection is only long-term (as shown by historical returns) and early adopters will reap the rewards like always.

It is just an opinion of an author who also was a trader back in the days. Do not confuse writing skills and/or trading experience with knowledge about history, technology and economy.

I agree, the smarter he is, the more he can make statements that are made to appear to be based on credible research. But behind it all, he just wanted to make noise after noise to make people feel his words were statistical words.

I'm not going to take the tweet seriously, it was made as a fishing rod to want to be the center of attention. Despite his thoughts, there was nothing to worry about. After Bitcoin reaches 6 digits, Bukele will mark the tweet before it disappears. Need to save the screenshot for later proof. Bitcoin has always had a way of silencing the mouths of critics.

So mathematician does agree that bitcoin can reach to 100K USD?

Then its completely fine since we can easily profit from that much money per bitcoin. Dude, we are talking about 100K per bitcoin which is huge up liftment of bitcoin. Most importantly to make bitcoin that much worth it will need market in trillions of dollars. The depth would be enormous for it and it would be impossible to take down bitcoin at that level.

How could it be failure if it's reaching 100K mark?

Everyone is entitled to their opinions, but everyone is not right in their own way. There are charts and history which one can take a quick glance at and educate themselves about whatever subject they wish to discuss on.

This is not even a logical criticism of Bitcoin in any way.
Undervaluing the effect of the market price and how it doesn't matter if it rises, while criticizing the current bear period is counterintuitive

Any opinion is always welcome, especially when he has a TA, but in this case he exceeds in alternate comments, perhaps to give notoriety to the little influence of his true opinion, I think that this man is looking to start earning a salary as a frequent commentator and receive enemas from the American television companies that pay bonuses to their commentators (consultants).

So what does a “Black Swan” writer care about Bitcoin contributions? simply because he was dubbed a former options trader and risk analyst? what's in it? (I read about it on Wikipedia)

Criticized the financial system and proposed the idea of an "antifragility" method in which he rejected the resilience of recovering after a downturn. Whereas what he built was trying to restore the economy after the failure. lol

if a so called "mathematician" is basing his answer on say the ATH or even a mythical number not even reached.. then he is not knowing/using/understanding/seeing all the variables.. thus he is not a great mathematician

here is the thing the ATH is not the stable zone of value. the value variable is not at the ATH

the value variable is found below the the low of a period
bitcoins value and deflationary numbers are beneath the price speculation.

this bitcoin value has been increasing progressively each cycle..
2009-2012 ($0.0X-$XX)
2013-2016 ($XX-$XXX)
2017-2019 ($XXX-$XXXXX)
2020-2022 ($XXXX-$XXXXX)

the important part is the green numbers per cycle

if the only number he see's/understands is the whimsy of speculative PRICE. he is missing the point entirely.
but he atleast admits he is a mathematician and not an economist.. after all we all do math so we all are able to be mathematicians

but hey.. if he does not know that the current price is a correction back to value. then his whole calculation is wrong from the beginning.

no one should be thinking the ATH is a store of value/expected stable price.. the ATH are always temporary events of temporary speculation that correct..
its a indicator of the realm that next cycle value can move into. but not a sign of what value is now

the VALUE of a train ticket is not the highest price you can find. its the cheapest.
the highest is the "premium"

On the contrary, bitcoin will still be a success even if the price of 1 btc hits $1. Bitcoin’s success or failure has nothing to do with its price. It is all about a functioning network. If bitcoin hits $1 tomorrow, the fundamentals will still be there staying like a rock. Marketcap, price … these are useless metrics. Full blocks is what really matters and they are almost always full which means people are lining up to use this elite blockchain.

If the bitcoin reaches those prices, no one will listen to these analyzes, so there is no point in them, especially at the present time, which everyone knows that it is difficult to reach these levels during the next two years.
What he is trying to say is just flattening historical phrases like “Bitcoin is a bubble” “Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme” “Nobody but drug dealers use Bitcoin” “Only failed states accept Bitcoin.”

How is BTC a failure when it started with zero and have reached up to $69k during the bullrun and its still going to reach higher in the next cycle. Taleb is just like his fellow Buffet who is an old dog that never learn the new tricks. So out dated they can't manage to understand what his book described as Black Swan. In fact its BTC that is the real Black Swan in this era that is destroying the old Swans.

Well everyone is right in their own way and entitled to their own opinion. He has said what he knows best as an expert and professional in the making but that does not stop Bitcoin from being the first and Genesis of blockchain.
You see I would not be surprised the critics are the Whales tommorow because they are going at causing fud making holders to panic sell at cheaper price for the dear of loosing out while causing dip and the critics would be there in hidden identity buying the dip. That's why I do not take these comments by all these people serious as they know the game they play and what they are upto.

That statement does not even look logical at a quick glance.
Lets say BTC is $20000 today and by the end of NEXT year it is at $100000 unless everything costs 5x as much due to inflation then it's a good hedge against inflation.
If it stays @ $100k until everything costs 5x as it does today it's still close enough.

Math it's a thing......Logic is a thing too.....

-Dave

That is why we need to make a proper research because the so called learned people can be critics and mislead people.

Even if I buy bitcoin at $3800 or as high as $7000 in 2020, the price is still at $19000 presently, not yet dropped below $10000. Is that not an hedger against inflation?

How about buying before 2020 at lower price, it is a hedge against inflation.

Bitcoin is beyond what can be called having promoters, no one that knows the true design of bitcoin that will not buy and encourage people to buy, but the critics are easy to know.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a bitcoin critic, he is not the first of them that criticized bitcoin and yet there has been more adoption and bitcoin making it to all-time-high.

Bitcoin promoters are betting on an eventual recovery that will vindicate their strength of conviction. However, even if the flagship cryptocurrency manages to surge to as high as $100,000 during another bull market, it will still be a failure, according to Nassim Taleb. 

The famed mathematician explains that the leading cryptocurrency has failed as a hedge against inflation. In fact, it has actually acted with opposite properties.   

As reported by U.Today, Taleb believes that the ongoing cryptocurrency winter may degrade into a full-blown “ice age,” meaning that prices will not recover for a long period of time (if ever).

The “Black Swan” author has also taken aim at “bitidiots” like El Salvador President Nayib Bukele who still claim that Bitcoin is cheap in a recent tweet. The self-proclaimed “world’s coolest dictator” continues to gamble away taxpayer money. Earlier this week, Bukele bought another 80 Bitcoins despite the fact that El Salvador, one of the poorest countries in the western hemisphere, had lost more than $50 million because of his ill-timed Bitcoin purchases.

Details:
https://u.today/bitcoin-will-be-a-failure-even-if-it-hits-100000-says-black-swan-author