Topic: Bitcoin will (probably) go lower. (Read 510 times)

I understand, prices are always affected by supply and demand. Currently this positive trend is expected to persist throughout the year as we had the previous year in a negative trend. Bearish has passed, but price correction is always possible.

We must not only think about the potential gains while ignoring the potential losses. About long-term investment, I hope we are really ready to get more budget if one day the price drops to low level. This means that the buy on dip strategy is my focus if the price drops deeply.

Bitcoin is an asset, so it’s obvious that sometimes it’s price will rise up and some times it will fall. Everything depends on the traders, and the demand they have for the Bitcoins. If the demand is high, then due to the limited supply of Bitcoins, the price will automatically go up, and the reverse happens when the demand is low. You can easily see this by focusing on a particular exchange’s transactions. If there are more buy orders then sell orders for the coin, then it proves that the demand is currently high. Moreover currently Bitcoins price have increased significantly, if we compare to last week. So tighten your seat belt, as Bitcoins can launch anytime to the sky.

Correction is a part of how this market works but I think they are different from what the OP is expecting. The price that he calls is already too low for a correction. You gave an example last year that the price drop after reaching its ATH but I think what happened there is also not a correction but that is already a bear market. It happens after a bull run.

A bear market can be more brutal than a correction so many people already expected that the price can dip below $45k because it already touch the $40k level which is already lower than a normal correction. It was a long bear that happened last year so I salute those who stay put. Soon it's time for you guys to be rewarded. Just a little bit of wait.

Even though bitcoin has been rising for the past few days, of course we understand that the price can be corrected again at any time, just like in 2021 which has seen it continue to rise until it peaks at $69k, everyone thought it would not fall below $45k again, but only less than a year the price hitting lows and dropping more than 50% by the end of 2022.

The most important key to profit when we invest in bitcoin is to always be optimistic and patient to hold, as long as we can be patient then we can profit, high price fluctuations give us the opportunity to get big profits in a short time, and a few days ago, of course, many were surprised by the price it dropped below $20k, but 3 days after it went below $20k bitcoin skyrocketed to touch $26k.

so what about week after your post Bitcoin recovered and get even higher ? breaking 26k from that what you called Below 20k fall? wondering how much you have earned from buying in that low if you trust bitcoin.
not that what you see will happen mate , sometimes it is the opposite of what you are thinking that will happen.
trust me mate i have been there before .

Honestly, I really expect bitcoin to fall a lot more, and it would be great if we get a new bottom for this bear season. That's actually a good thing, a golden opportunity to accumulate lots of bitcoins cheaply. As a long-term investor, I am quite confused when people want bitcoin to quickly increase in price. What's the benefit when bitcoin goes up, and we don't have a lot of bitcoins to sell?

Given what's going on, it's hard for bitcoin to make a new bottom, but anything is possible, and looking at the world economy, there are still many instabilities. I still hope there will be another market crash, so I have a chance to accumulate more.

Bitcoin prices are good as in this moment. Bitcoin Pump and when the price is below $ 19K still no one bought it and hopes to continue down. Actually the opportunity to buy Bitcoin will continue to exist, no matter the current price, the important thing is your main target at what price and hold until it reaches that price. The $ 20K price area is still very cheap, remember that Bitcoin has reached ATH $ 64K and it can certainly be achieved again. Just how to do financial management to be able to get Bitcoin at low prices at this time. Provide reserves of money when the price of bitcoin continues to drop.

It is true that it is difficult to say what the value of bitcoin will be and many people are waiting for that matter. But from what I can really see in the movement of bitcoin today in the graph, it can be seen if manipulators are positioned to lower it in the market.
 
     They are just waiting for the right signal when they will sell their bitcoin holdings. And then wait again for it to drop to the value they expect to buy it, which is like you say DCA applications.

If it is going to $25k, so I would say that we are bullish about it.

But the thing that you mentioned, we really don't know the price movement, and as far as predicting the price, very hard to say, although there could be factors that we need to consider.

In any case, DCA is our best friend is we wanted to accumulated overtime.

At the time the OP made this post the price of Bitcoin came down to around $20000 and soon after it turned bullish again and crossed $26000. Bitcoin is really hard to predict. Because Bitcoin can change its direction at any time. It can be bullish in the midst of a thousand negativity and it can go down again without any manifest issues. Investor trends are a big issue. Anyway, you are right that in any current scenario DCA method would qualify for buying bitcoins. Bitcoin price is currently just below $25000 and can be either bullish or bearish from the current price.

Whether short-term or long-term, no prediction is actually easy to do. We were all pretty much hoping that the price if once crossed $25k, will at least reach $30k before coming down, but the opposite had happened. It almost touched $26.5k and took a U-turn and it roaming around $24k since then. Now, the question is, will it go up again from here or we will see it going toward $20k again?

Though we don't really know, but as the conditions look, I believe it will dip a bit more from this point. It may not reach $20k this time, but around $22k will be the target area.

Sure, I can believe that. It's something I've always considered to be honest - the self-fulfilling prophecy of Bitcoin price increase increasing price. All that's needed is for buying pressure to drop by 50% after the selling pressure drops by 50% post-halving and you'd have a sideways market, not a bull market. For all we know by 2024 we'll be mid-recession and the halving won't have the same affect as previous times.

But until that happens, price remains in a 4-year cycle regardless. Even if it's driven by the speculation of increased prices due to decrease in inflation, rather than genuinely because of inflation decrease.


One thing I have noticed is in the past few days (during the rise from $20K back to $25K) Bitcoin lost it's correlation to S&P and Nasdaq and instead correlated with Gold. It's not often it happens, in fact Bitcoin is usually correlated to "risk-on" assets as you probably know (and I think have referenced). Whereas now that correlation is breaking, so even in a recession Bitcoin could thrive like Gold has in the past.

It's just a theory, but as I've always said Bitcoin is correlated with stock market until it's not. And for the first time in a long-time, it's lost it's correlation. So all the bearish outlook of stocks projected onto Bitcoin isn't going to be relevant anymore unless the correlation returns (simple reality imo). Ironically, previous times Bitcoin has lost this correlation has been at the start of bull markets or during recoveries.

The 2% was not used as a comparison between two subjects at the same rate, it was a comparison of what 2% would mean now versus what 86% meant then, the income of a successful restaurant versus half of the GDP of a country. It's not 2% vs 2% .


Not a bad deal, I've been in way too many discussions in which I couldn't even reach this point, the other poster not allowing me even to have a different opinion.


Or it's not a coincidence and it's triggered by the belief that the BTC will go up, with users buying in and thus themselves self-fulfilling their prophecies. If you have a ton user and hey all claim that when the halving will happen the price will go up and everybody expects that and is not selling then you have the perfect market conditions for a bull-run, but it's again created by beliefs nothing else.


Well, this one we will see it now since I'm looking at WTI hitting $67, so let's see where it goes. Banks being bailed out was really a bumper here, a failure in doing so would have propelled BTC even with a recession incoming, so, uncharted territory here, I wouldn't be surprised to wake up at 20k or 40k and just raise an eyebrow with 10k more in each direction.

Well I guess we'll agree to disagree then! Based on store of value, I'd much prefer a 2.2% correction, per hour, than a -86% correction lasting a year.
Mainly because we're not talking about lunch money anymore, we're talking about much larger investments as well as investment firms.


I am a believer that the 4-year cycles will eventually pass, but so far this simply hasn't been the case, mainly because it's far from "magical" and a lot more "programmed" into existence. Probably once Bitcoin's inflation drops below 1% or less it's not going to have as much affect it dropping in half anymore, but otherwise even the drop from 3.4% to 1.7% still had a dramatic effect it seems. Just my perspective obviously.

Either that or it's a massive coincidence that each time the inflation drops in half that price ends up in a bull market... which sure, why not, it could be. But otherwise with 50% less supply available to sell from miners, it's obvious to see why with a stable demand price would increase. It should only be by 2x logically speaking, but obvious Bitcoin's price movements aren't always very logical.


I'm not arguing that inflation or deflation doesn't affect Bitcoin, quite the opposite in fact. I'm stating that Bitcoin's change in inflation is what drives price up and then eventually down, not fiat based inflation. Of course inflation affects an asset, as that's exactly what I'm arguing, but to me the question is which type of inflation, the ones humans have control over, or the one that is beyond our power (well phrased btw).

And sure I don't deny that you could be right here, ie speculating that the scare of a recession was over that Bitcoin rebounded. But personally, I don't think that fear has really gone away yet.\

True. If there are movement that everyone is expecting, that will be a more downfall in the price because Mt.gox is said to released those old BTC to its creditors. IDK if what is the update about it. Is it done already or not? But if not then this might still threaten us in the long run so people must not be really happy right now.

There's no problem for those who are trading and short term investors because they can sell now and then wait again for a dump to buy another set of BTC. I once said that short term prediction is more accurate than in long term but it seems that I am wrong and you are right, and this scenario that we see lately is a proof to that.

Yeah and it did go up to $26k, and thanks to the OP's advice, it did go lower and so it's time to buy during that time and hopefully did and if they do then obviously then can make money today or when the price rose to $26k and sell.

However, for the majority, we are still going to hold and wait for more good news to come.

But the best thing to happen to us is to wait for the halving next year, because that will be the catalyst for a massive bull run.

I agree that perspective is definitely the case but that becomes a bit individualistic when you look at it. Just because bitcoin losing 2% is a big amount in GDP for Italy, doesn't mean that it is for UK, and just because 2% is bad for you, doesn't mean it is for me.

In the end, let the people act as if they are going to end up with a bad situation and I disagree with that, we are going to end up with something that is much better for everyone in the end and we should be seeing those even smallest drops to end up with a big increase in the end. That is why it should be noted that we should be always optimistic about it because even falls have recoveries as we have seen just recently.

Many people said that before, and I include myself among those people, and still bitcoin dropped for a few moments below that level due to the issues the USDC coin had, so we must never discard a scenario like that even if it may seem unlikely to us, however even if it happened I would think of this as a good thing as it can give you an opportunity to accumulate bitcoin for a very good price, and then you can reap the rewards once the price of bitcoin goes up once again.

Bitcoin is not all about the USA. It's a global phenomenon.

Of course, the happiest thing that holders feel is when they see the price of bitcoin going up and I also feel very happy when I see the price of bitcoin pass $ 25k a few hours ago. bitcoin is very volatile and i don't believe the price of bitcoin will ever drop past $20k again.

It did, just because most charts begin in 2013 or 2015 doesn't mean it didn't happen
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/10/bitcoin-implodes-down-more-than-90-percent-from-june-peak/


As I said, it all depends who makes the statistics and what's his position.
For extreme bitcoiners, 1BTC=1BTC so they are both the same, for the one holding 1BTC donated by Satoshi from the start he lost once a pizza  now he lost a VW golf, for the one holding $10k obviously this one is better cause he lost 7500$ but still it was supposed to still have 10k in purchasing power no mater the inflation.

Let's see what's worse, some kids playing with lunch money losing 30$ per BTC, or bitcoin reaching $1m and a 2% erasing the GDP of Italy in one cough? As I said, a thing of perspective. And since we're at this point, do you think those magical cycles will keep on even at that time and erase something the size of the US economy in a few months? Or that the cycles will evaporate by then, cause that was the design, 9 80% drops for the mortal men doomed to die watching charts? 


Argument? No, it's not a thing of arguments, what I'm pointing out is an observable event, It went down just as the others in conditions that went against what it was perceived to be. This is what we're arguing here, you think that no matter inflation or deflation bitcoin goes in circles like some sun cycles beyond our power, I'm pointing out that it went down in a high inflation period only to stop falling at the end of it when the scare was over.
I'm telling you the kid fell down because it hit that stair, you're telling me he always falls every 10 minutes.

I believe no one could have predicted what happened in the last 4 days, it was too sudden for all of us. Although bitcoin price prediction is an integral part of investing in it, but so far, I can say that it rarely works in the short term. Investing in bitcoin should not wait until bitcoin bottoms out, when bitcoin will drop more because no one can know about it. If we want to invest, buy when possible, especially during the bear season when bitcoin has dropped significantly against ATH. Just hold long, bitcoin will never let us down.

Just four days ago the value of Bitcoin was around 20k$ more, but just yesterday bitcoin was around 21k$ more and now it suddenly pumped 24800$.

     The volatility of bitcoin is really different, we don't know that anytime it can attack an increase or decrease in the market. I'm sure many bitcoin holders are happy with this event.

To the crux of the matter in order to avoid countering random speculation and adding my own dose of it...


To oversimply things further for you, it was a bull market. Price went from around $29K to $69K and ended the year around $46K. Not a spectacular bull run by any means, even tested the yearly lows, but an uptrend that led to higher prices of +59%.  Sometimes simplying things to whether price went up or down can actually be quite useful imo in a binary sense.

In this case, 2021 was an UP year, similar to the year before.


Price wise, sure. I actually couldn't agree more (genuinely). Bitcoin has never seen fake out style ATH, nor dropping below previous ATH made years before. Given the lack of blow off top I was someone who (wrongly) believed that price could hold around $30K based on the change of price action. But again, this isn't relevant to the issue of why Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 bear market than 2014 or 2018.


Gonna go out on a limb and say -86% is the worst bear market so far, but only based on that graphic.
Where did the -93% from $31 to $2 bear market go though? Apparently it didn't happen??
At least provide an accurate graphic of ATH to ATL next time please!


Right, ok. That's definitely a different answer to why Bitcoin hasn't performed better in 2022 than previous bear markets - I'll grant you that, literally 100%. Even certify that it's a reasonable argument compared to others I've heard! So basically anything over $10b drop (that at the time was 86%) is worse than -77%, because it repesents $800b? Like many others, I'll take it quite happily. At current market cap of around $450b, that means that every $10b drop is worse than the -86% drop - that as I explained isn't even the worst bear market anyway - but let's run with it for shits and giggles.

So, by your own argument and logic, every 2.2% correction or downtrend that Bitcoin has (at current prices) is worst than the -86% drop that happened in 2014/2015?

I rest my case. Still waiting for a relevant argument as to why high inflation is bad for Bitcoin 

The ever-surprising BTC actually went under $20k but according to me, what threw it back up could be the bailout given to both SVB and Silvergate Bank, due to which Circle's USDC too saw a bounce back to $1 which was expected but I still believe that this rally could fade out and BTC would get back under $20k again making this an all-time favorite swing trade wiping out many millions and taking enough liquidity both sides by hitting major stop losses.

Had to wait till I have some more time for the reply, you little JJJ clone 


If the CPI announcement was worse than predicted or it signaled for sure another increase it did trigger a dump, I made that my hobby of having an alarm set for every date, and it never disappointed. The fact that the dump was erased later on, yeah I can agree it bounced back but always when the data was bad news there was an initial red dildo clear as the sky is blue.


As later on this post, you're starting to look at this like no matter if an asteroid hits the planet or a ww3 starts, if the price doesn't go to $30k and it drops to 20000$ it's because of a TA and some lines not because of nukes flying.


Why not blame the rise on normal growth, growth that was supposed to happen as adoption or investment grew themselves and that probably wouldn't have stopped so abruptly in the first place? Why not blame the premature stop on inflation and why not blame the lack of growth while getting more and more exposure to the current bad situation? Tesla shares performed best in their history once Covid entered the scene, does this mean without a new virus spreading around they will return to the same linear pattern as in previous years?


Of course, and I'm one of the happiest about it, probably I forgot to mention but I like more the aspect of being able to use BTC as a means of payment and safe storage of wealth than gambling on exchanges and the whole asset point. Just because I was pointing out how the correlation happened and how it went against the whole idea of being a hedge against inflation doesn't mean I was happy even at the moment with it.

A bank failing and the exact tool designed against this acting like it's being affected just as worse by it would be beyond stupid, in the current situation if it would have performed the same it would have been really like the world taking another piss on the whole thing


You're again oversimplifying things, what was 2021 then?
Was it a bear market since we dropped from 60k, or was it a bull market since we went from 2x?
Again making it sound like this was written in stone it had to go down ~70% because that's what bitcoin does, the trend has already been broken, the second rise over a previous ATH in less than a year, the drop below a previous ATH, you can choose to ignore it but are clear signs history has getting tired of repeating the same story.

Probably you're used to this:

Which one of them was worse?

And to combine this with your other question.
That  86% drop erased $10 billion of value, the current one erased $800 billion!
So... Did it really perform better? Mark Twain might have something to say about those statistics and percentages.

Hey, what's going on with Bitcoin? I thought BTC was correlated with Nasdaq but is currently up 18% over weekend while Nasdaq is flat since Friday!

It's almost like Bitcoin is correlated with Nasdaq until it's no longer correlated with Nasdaq...


PS - Still waiting on an explanation as to why Bitcoin has performed better during high inflation than in past bear markets 

That is why DCA is very important, because you will have the opportunity to cashout a profit in this kind of price fluctuations. However, I would suggest to just hodl it when you're DCAing.
And yes, Bitcoin's price today is technically cheap, we might not going to see this Bitcoin valued at $20k next time, especially when Bitcoin hits the $100k milestone.

Luckily the FED announced today it will essentially bail out all the customers of SVB so Circle's issues are over, they'll get back all the fiat they had in SVB that backs USDC. And this is why Bitcoin jumped 10% today along with everything else in crypto jumping as well. The other things that happened last week that initially caused Bitcoin to drop under $20k are already starting to be part of the last new cycle as the SVB failure took over the news cycle this weekend and its already resolved now. I'm sure there will be more negative news for Bitcoin, and some of last week's news will get back in the media, but for now at least the market looks great after the USDC drama is now over.

So many FUD coming out these days so I am certain that it would really go lower.
I am waiting for it to happen and saving up to buy some when it reach the price that I am setting for.
I am trying to cut some unnecessary expenses just to save up for this one and I know that it would all be worth it.

Lol, looks like the events are arranged and the way it happened is like a deliberately staged movie.  The issue of a 30% tax increase on the mining industry is probably going to be good for bitcoin value in the long run.  on the form of the US government recommend 10% per year, increase in 3 years and apply after December 31 of this year.  I suppose if it is passed, it is not really serious for the trend to improve and recover the trend of bitcoin.  I am also quite concerned about the issue of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), if it cannot be resolved in any way that benefits the users from the US government.  Will Bitcoin be replaced?
Personally, I still have great faith that bitcoin will not move below the $19k support and it will go up soon.

The only way that is always positive and Dca is way to go and take profits along the lines. The longer I've been in crypto, the more I realize that no one knows what's going on with a bear market. The way down is in, we're going down, always looking to come back maybe $19k to fill the void.

Do you have a specific time, day and period on how the dip would last maybe one could possibly utilize this period to fills up his bag, since I am not a consistent trader and we do usually take advantage of every single opportunity that comes out immediately.

To know how good you are with price prediction you can placed your predicted price here https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sinbadio-mixer-march-bitcoin-price-prediction-challenge-5441704
Follow the instructions carefully let's see how authentic your predictions could be. You may discard if you already applied.

That's because it's easy to talk than to do an action. If we are truly committed with one thing, we must show it by doing an action with less or no talking at all. At the moment the price is still down even after a little recovery. Your decision of buying is great. The market is giving us another chance or one last chance before we finally see the bull run.

We can't control the price with our action so how much more by voice alone? You can say that there are no increases this year but it can still possibly happen but no worries because you are well prepared already. Volatilities are always there because they are the nature of cryptos but we can use this as our advantage.

Sometimes waiting for the green signals makes you late for the trip because when it comes, your conditions may not be ideal to seize the opportunity.

Everyone who tried to wait for the perfect opportunity managed to fear, so who buys at 20K and waits until the price reaches 15K, what drives him to believe that the bottom has reached It happened, so it will wait for it to reach 10k, and when it reaches 10k it will say let's wait for it to reach 5k.

Do not forget that the rise, when it occurs, is at the speed of a rocket, and within less than 72 hours, the price may rise from 17K to 40K, then you will have nothing but to lament the missed opportunity.

And it just shows the volatility nature of bitcoin, perhaps it was due to

- investors buying obviously
- the news no longer had that much effect on the market, in just 2 days, we are now above $20k again.

Lucky for those who have bought below $20k, but still though, the price is still very cheap and we can go and still buy and wait and HODL on it.

I think you are right there because I noticed that people are complaining again about the high food cost. I am not aware with this but maybe inflation starts kicking again. This could mean that people are selling some of their Bitcoins to support their current lifestyle and they can not buy more Bitcoins for now because they need to prioritize their life outside first.

Global economic conditions or issues are too brutal than it can affect almost all financial markets and not only here in Bitcoin/cryptos. If they are now collapsing, we can expect that Bitcoin will be the next on the list. This wasn't the end though. We can just be calm and patient because all are soon going to return to normal again.

Yesterday the price dropped again below $20k to $19800, those who bought at that cheap price were of course very happy because the price went up again and got a 2% profit in less than a day, many people hoped the price would drop because they wanted to buy more, for us of course when the price drops it becomes a good opportunity to buy more.

with the decline in the price of bitcoin, don't panic because later the price of bitcoin will have the potential to rise again,
but I don't think the price of bitcoin will fall any deeper because bitcoin holders are increasing from time to time. and indeed buying bitcoin using the dca system is the best way to buy.

but vigilance, of course, must always be there because investing in crypto is very difficult to guess.

This looks like another in a series of "US strikes back" episodes, and it's just one more confirmation that the US has too much influence on Bitcoin, whether it's mining or trading or other things. Whichever angle we look at, it seems that everything revolves around what Biden or Powell will say, and what ideas will come to their mind when they wake up the next morning.

---

2 weeks is too little for it to be any clearer what the consequences of everything that is happening will be, and it seems to me that it will take months for the dust to settle a little and for us to get a somewhat clearer picture.

There is alot of negative news lately about Bitcoin so I agree with you. How much longer will it go lower is a question we must ask ourself.
Also I do agree it is 20k for main support. I hope we do not see t lower then this. But if price goes below 19k then we cold be in for some big losses.

But in reality, the market is still in a bearish position and we don't know how long this situation will last and can only guess.
Maybe from the beginning of the new year to the middle, the market situation will not be stable and will still fluctuate again.
And there is indeed a possibility that bitcoin could drop even lower so we must remain vigilant.
If you want to invest in bitcoin, prepare your money and wait for the price you want or you can buy it now because it's the same thing.
And yes, we must remain calm and not panic because it can help us to analyze properly and find the time to enter the market.

What if more people still hold during the high inflation. Despite the population suffering in every economy there are still thousands who live comfortably. Don't forget inflation is manmade. The little amount we retail investors own is not enough to decide the direction of the market. In previous times the FED pivot could affect the market because the trend was in sync with the interest rates on reserve, interest rate target, bank rate and everything else. But i doubt such will repeat it self in this current investment year. Currently price has bounced back above $20k

Yes, many people talk, and when they have the opportunity to buy cheap, they don't do it. I am taking the opportunity to accumulate at the moment. I don't care if it goes down a little more and as I have said in other speculation threads, I don't expect big rises for 2023, although I would expect that by the end of the year we will close with a higher price than in 2022, which is not difficult, but until then there is a lot of volatility ahead of us, especially as things are in general in the economy.

I don't look at what will happen to the price in the next few months, but over the next few years, and what I see happening is that we will look back and see that 20,000 was a very cheap price. So the best thing to do is to accumulate at these levels.

I hope those people wake up and take the chance that has appeared in front of them out of nowhere, there were people complaining about not being able to buy bitcoin for sub 20k prices anymore and now they have the opportunity to do it, if they do not take advantage of it they do not know when this opportunity will repeat itself, if it repeats itself at all, but despite all their complains I am sure there are many of them which will refuse to do it as they are probably waiting for the price to go even lower than its current levels.

The $ price of 1BTC is currently $20,125. This is the first proper retest of support in & around $20,000.

I think if $20,000 acts as a real support then bears will retreat & we could break $25,000 & start to confirm that the bear market is over. We should know more in the next 2 weeks.

As for the inflation rate, it's decreasing but to be honest that decrease ain't that much compared to the pre-pandemic inflation rates. Well, it's just a suggestion that it's still not yet a good time to buy and that's OP's tactic before he buys again and waits for a lower price to come.
But those that have been waiting to see it again lower than $20k or within $20k itself, it's now your chance to make your moves and dca as much as you can.
Time is just so quick to pass and if you really are following the market, this correction that's happening just need to happen before we get to see something better maybe little late by the end of this year or starting next year.

We are still much in the bearish state, so we need to take into account that the price "might" go lower or we might see another lower lows. I don't think that we need for the FED and see them pivot some data.

It's better to just invest on whatever capacity we can.

DCA or buying if you have the capital, then it's all good. And with buying anytime, you have total control of it. What I mean is that we should look in the future, in the next bull run and see how investment right now could grow overtime.

The initial prediction of bitcoin price on bearish has not reached, different users with different prediction have been said here and other boards, some predicted that bitcoin will reach as low as 10$ or below. One thing I also discovered in the rapid coming down of bitcoin price more faster than when it is going up. Remember in last year the price was in 15$ for weeks before it climb up again. So reaching 15$ again is not a new thing for bitcoin legends.

The best time to invest on bitcoin now and then lower price to come. Then to come is only of the buyer is ready to be patient because the movement of the downward might be slow.

Most likely this is the best explanation for the sudden plunge of the price, it's a direct attack by the US government to bitcoin per se, that is a huge tax implications for bitcoin miners and it doesn't sit well with us.

Silvergate news was overshadowed already, and if I'm not mistaken, once the Silvergate news surfaces, it's not that huge drop, as we keep above $22k. But the new proposal from Biden government was the nail in the couple for us in the last 24 hours.

Thank God, I am optimistic and my belief in Bitcoin is still strong despite all this decline, even if Bitcoin falls to 15k$ so that I will not lose my optimism, on the contrary it will be the best time to buy.

There is a lot of negative news that caused this decline, the most important of which is the issue of the Mt.gox exchange, where distribution is supposed to start today for those affected, also news that the US government sent 40,000 BTC to the Coinbase platform two days ago.

In addition, of course, to raise interest, but despite all that, as I said before, this affects the speculator, but it does not affect the investor in the long run.

Spot on.
The FED can do whatever they want to try to keep the USA economy from sinking. In the end, Bitcoin price is about offer and demand  and nobody escapes one of the most universal laws of economics.

Once halving comes through, it would be just matter of time before the price increases in an important amount. In the meantime, anyone should be staking sats, instead being fearful of a passing dump provoked by the reckless choices of crypto CEO's.

I don't think its Mt Gox causing anything, I mean that may have caused a bit of the initial bearishness at the beginning of the month but I don't see anyone talking about Mt Gox now. And didn't that get like moved back to later in the year anyway or something?

All things that happened in the past few days or past week:
- FED saying rates will raise for longer and therefore higher
- US Govt supposedly moving a billion dollars of bitcoin to coinbase
- NY AG office suing Kucoin and claiming that ETH is a security
- Silvergate officially going bust
- Voyager currently liquiditating all their crypto assets
- Biden proposing a 30% tax of electricity of bitcoin mining companies in a desire to stop corporate mining of bitcoin in the US


That's a lot of negative things and it all happened at once. Those are what bought Bitcoin crashing down below $20k. Silvergate was the main thing, though all these other things happening in the past couple days just compounded the Silvergate news to drop the market further. Once we're onto the next news cycle and Silvergate collapsing is old news Bitcoin should recover unless some of these other things become more serious.

At the moment, the news of MT. Gox is still having a significant effect on the market, and the FUD may last for some time. While the size of the bitcoin planned for release is huge, it could spread for nine months. Still, I have no doubt some people will do some accumulating again from the FUD. There is still a long period in the market before the halving when the market will break the previous ATH.

Instead of adapting your strategy to the FED's movements, I think it's better to just focus on the halving event. Historically it has proved to be solid, while being a sure thing. Independent of groups' decisions and manipulative measures we know it's going to happen in a fixed date, so everyone can prepare for it with equal chances, different from FED's actions which only reach to you through news' portals after the whales and insiders already had access to it in first hand, putting them in a very superior position against average investors like us.

Hope is reborn for those waiting for $10k, and while I won't say it's impossible, I don't agree with those hoping for just that. Of course, it's easy to make statements like you make when the price has lost 20% in a very short time, because why wouldn't it lose another 20% or more?

However, although many will blame the FED and their latest statements, I would also take into account the fact that many took profit by selling at a price of around $25k, and they bought exactly when the price was the lowest. The game is always the same, buy low, sell high, and take advantage of any news, whether it's good or bad. In any case, this will be a turbulent year, but that does not mean anything bad, because those who trade will have nothing against profiting 40% or even more a few more times.

It feels like this is a drop in price due to global economic conditions. We seem to have reached a point where we’re going to find out if bitcoin is going to collapse with the rest of global assets, or if it’s going to soar in the face of a recession like some are hoping. I have my doubts, but I’m keeping my fingers crossed. However, I’m not sure that crossing your fingers is the best investment strategy.

Well there were a lot of things that all came together at the same time to cause the drop under $20k. Silvergate going bust, job growth being too strong and inflation didn't go down much in February so FED chairman just said past couple days interest rate raises will probably continue longer and therefore go higher (which doesn't affect Bitcoin directly but it makes investors in general scared of investing in anything because they seem to treat Bitcoin as though its a tech stock cuz they still don't know what Bitcoin is), I think some other collapsed crypto firm just announced it is liquidating as well, plus NY attorney general sued Kucoin over having ETH on their platform with the NY AG claiming ETH is a security, news that the US govt sent $1 billion of Bitcoin to Coinbase causing panic they would just dump it on the open market, Biden announcing in his budget proposal for next year a ridiculous 30% tax on electricity used in Bitcoin mining which implemented would basically drive all US Bitcoin mining companies overseas, and on top of all that of course looming worry of the SEC building up to take tyrannical enforcement against crypto and crypto companies. That's a ton of things all happening at once, and most of those just happened the past few days.

Bitcoin absolutely could go lower for sure, as several of these factors are ongoing. But some will fade with the next news cycle so it also wouldn't surprise me if Bitcoin recovers a thousand dollars or two in the near future.

I don't want to make predictions on how much it will fall because I'm not good at technical analysis, and I also believe bitcoin is unpredictable. But I hope your prediction is correct because I want bitcoin to be priced as low as possible, I don't want bitcoin to recover and rise again anytime soon. Bitcoin's decline is an opportunity, not a time to panic. Like when we go to the market, an excellent product is being sold at a high discount, which is a good thing. Similarly, if we have a chance to buy bitcoin at a lower price, the profit will be more in the future. Don't forget, the early adopters of bitcoin got rich because they bought bitcoins at super low prices.

Technically not every bearish CPI announcement caused another dump, this is just retrospectively what people perceived to have happened. Can give examples if required...
There were a few where price had already dumped, so instead price rallied to the upside (last year in particular), or otherwise just went sideways for longer.
But everyone only remember the times when priced dumped after the announcement, as opposed to when it didn't or the opposite occured...


After rejection from $25K a lot of people saw $20K incoming, as a usual bull market retracement. Obviously within a longer term bear market it looks a lot more severe, as it well could be.
Silvergate bankruptcy or not, after $23K broke I was expecting $20K to come next. Maybe Silvergate accelerated that process, but it seemed likely long before that news broke imo.
I'm not just saying this in hindsight, I stated numerous times in different threads that either $25K breaks and we go to $30K, or we go back to $20K...


Maybe you can help to unravel the followings data then, as so far nobody has been able to explain the following:

2014-2015 bear market (no high inflation): Bitcoin drops -83% from ATH after approx one year
2018-2019 bear market (no high inflation): Bitcoin drops -83% from ATH after approx one year
2022-2023 bear market (with high inflation): Bitcoin drops -77% from ATH after approx one year

So despite the subjectivity of Bitcoin going below previous ATH for first time, or below 200 Week MA - which is more about the lack of blow off top in 2021 than a poor performance in 2022 - why has Bitcoin performed better after 15 months+ in it's 2022-2023 bear market with high inflation than previous bear markets without? Is it because it will do worse eventually, ie more than -83% drop below $12K?

For clarity, I'm not questioning why Bitcoin has dropped -77% since ATH, as to me it seems obvious (in hindsight) that this is what Bitcoin does every 4 years and has done so for 12. I'm trying to understand why many are speculating that Bitcoin will do worse in 2023 than previous bear markets and go sub $12K (-83%) when so far after a year since ATH it has performed much better than usual. Anything above $12K isn't worse...

The only logical answer I've heard so far is that without the blow-off top in 2021, then price performed better because of that. The lack of blow-off top could be attributed to anticipated inflation, so therefore inflation was priced into the market in 2021, hence Bitcoin didn't do as well as usual or expected, as opposed to 2022? But with the same logic, a recession could well be priced in a year in advance as well.

So does this then mean that Bitcoin's rise in 2021 was due to impending high inflation (after post covid19 money printing etc)? I'm not very convinced, again, I think this is just 4-year all over again.


This is true, no-one can deny the correlation. But at the same time, I'm not particularly bearish about the S&P or Nasdaq. There was a lot of selling 2022 with the anticipation of a recession and therefore a long-term bear market to follow (like 10 year long or something). But so far this recession hasn't happened yet it seems (even though it obviously still could), and Bitcoin could de-correlate at any point like it has in the past.


The irony being that if the high inflation / recession clears up by 2024/2025, then a Bitcoin recovery & bull market would likely be contributed to this factor, rather than it's reliable and unbroken 4-year cycles  

What appreciation was there?
Once inflation started climbing bitcoin was only going down, every single announcement over CPI triggered another dump, the only time it jumped was when, surprise, the announcement came that inflation has cooled off. No, contrary to what was expected by some, in times of rising inflation BTC did poorly, actually managing a first, that is going below the previous ATH level, and not by a tiny fraction.

And you can see it again now, Silvergate and the FED saying rates will keep going higher and there you have it, 10% in a flash and sub 20k.
No, BTC  doesn't thrive in an inflation either, and for sure not in a looming economic recession, it has ceased to overwhelmingly be a safe haven refuge and is more a tradable asset that moves as stocks do.

This is BTC correlation with Nasdaq, almost the entire year it stayed up closer to 1 than to half a point and din;t go blow zero till the very end finally diverging.


The bright side in this is that most likely once the whole inflation and recession crap is finally done and gone the increase would probably overshadow everything else on the markets.

Your strong point and analysis to say bitcoin price drop is coming is all about inflation but I don't think that is what will happen to bitcoin only because of that. Are you saying when the inflation is high then people withdraw hodling and to take care of life? But during COVID-19 that was restrictions and low income earning, we saw gradual increase in investment and appreciation of price so inflation should not be the only reason for price drop. Bitcoin has the tradition of fall in price a year before halving.

Hello everyone! Today bitcoin went below 20k and it will probably go even lower I share my opinion on why it will happen.

Not too long ago I wrote a post about the best time to invest in bitcoin/crypto and this moment still didn't come.
I was saying this before and I will say it again: bitcoin will go down and it MIGHT even go lower than 15k.

Disclaimer: I'm not trying to be bearish or say that bitcoin is bad and you shouldn't buy it. I still think that DCA is the best tactic to choose in any circumstance. So keep buying bitcoin, it is the future of money and great technology.

But my opinion is that right now it's not the best time to buy bitcoin and it will go lower because of some reasons. The main reasons for me are that the inflation is still too high, the economy is suffering and rates are still high. There is also a statistical fact that all previous times when FED pivots happened, the economy dipped even lower and found a new bottom. We still didn't see this fallout so it's safe to assume that it's coming.
Latest statistics also showed that inflation is higher than expected and FED could start hiking rates once again.

My advice will be to wait until FED will start lowering rates which will mean that the economy will start recovering and money will flow into crypto and bitcoin.

Anyway, keep safe and don't panic, we will get through it.