Former Fortress hedge-fund manager Michael Novogratz doesn't see much chance of bitcoin breaking out of its current slump.
"I don't think it breaks $9,000 this year," Novogratz said on stage at the Economist Finance Disrupted event in Manhattan Tuesday.
Novogratz, who predicted last year that the cryptocurrency could swell to $40,000 in 2018, said it will take until the first two quarters of next year for bitcoin to move above $10,000.
I definitely agree with this Novogratz dude
Unless something out of the ordinary happens (a white swan of sorts), it is unlikely for Bitcoin to cross the $10,000 level this year. I would be happy to accept being wrong on this prediction but anyone who followed Bitcoin prices for at least a year understands that there is a huge resistance at around that mark specifically. Many people feel frustrated at Bitcoin "underperformance" as they are now waiting indignantly and impatiently when they can sell at breakeven and get done with crypto for good (at least, they are thinking so). I'm double-quoting the term since personally, I think that stable prices do more good than bad for Bitcoin in the long run as it helps foster and promote its currency aspect as opposed to a purely speculative one. But we should not discard the fact that prices in the range of 10k-12k were expected to be the ultimate bottom after the "correction" earlier this year (which was triggered off in late December, 2017), but as it often happens the majority were proven wrong all over again. Almost no one took
my warnings seriously back in the day (note the dates):
With higher bitcoin prices, it could be a good practice to look at percentage shifts rather than quantity of dollars or other btc might be exchanged for. While the dollar amount of price shifts increases as bitcoin's price rises higher, the percentage rates of price shifts appears to be stabilising. Bitcoin is becoming less volatile over time, in terms of percentage shifts, as it becomes a more known phenomena and things like forks are better known and understood with a prior historical precedent.
Bitcoin is not becoming less volatile
Why do you people not read the OP? I mentioned there that Bitcoin is going even more volatile as the price rises. And yes, I mean relative changes, I think in relative changes if you please, i.e. changes in percentages specifically. I've even given an example above which proves that. Now we just need Bitcoin to go down as low as 6-7k dollars to prove me right. Or we could at first surge as high as 25k and then fall back to 10k dollars. This is not because of external factors affecting Bitcoin (though they certainly do). This is due to Bitcoin limited supply and the inverse relationship between Bitcoin supply and its price, most of the time
And they are now paying for their ignorance and out of hand dismissal of my point
