Topic: Bitcoin’s long-term investors own over 76% of all BTC for the first time (Read 315 times)

Looking at how we are doing great these days, I think the market finally picked up on it. I think all that "oh it is going up because of a fake ETF news" was old news, I do not think that its going like that and I think its doing fine, I do not think that it will do all that badly. I get it, people approach it like we are going to end up with something lower when everyone realizes that's a lie, but that's not really true, its been over a week and we are still going up which means that it didn't go up because of that at all.

I think it should be quite important that we are going up because we want to buy and hold and want to take it higher, that's the thing people should realize. All those news are old news and shouldn't really be a bother, we need to end up with anything that would be a bit different. I hope that we are going to end up with something that should be a bit different in the end and we can comeback a bit later on, and see that it is even higher.

Well, this is a very huge number, I mean 76 percent of the entire circulating supply of bitcoin is not far from 100 percent of the same circulating supply, I personally believe these guys know the potential in bitcoin, they sure know what is coming for bitcoin in this coming halving.
Bitcoin halving alongside the US SEC approving the Bitcoin ETF could be a game changer, I personally have a feeling that the coming bull run could end up being very best of the all, we may likely see or experience something we have never experienced or seen before.

This is a pointer for us all, it's time to hold bitcoin and not a time to sell, I personally will not trade bitcoin this time for it might be very risky, better to trade altcoins and use the profit to buy more bitcoins and hold.

This number will continue to rise for many reasons. The biggest two probably being that people tend to lose their private keys resulting in what looks like coins being held by long term investors, and also the rise in exchange traded funds will surely result in coins being taken off the market and held in cold storage on behalf of investors.

I am not sure if they are going to end up approving it anytime soon. There was a wrong rumor about Blackrock ETF being accepted but it turned out to be wrong so I doubt that it would be any different on this one as well, I think it is going to be pretty much similar thing yet again. I get that it may feel like maybe it is not the same thing but I think ETF thing is just not anytime soon and the increase has nothing to do with that.

If it was approved then it would be, it is still going up without the ETF which means that there are other reasons. Plus, there has been plenty of good news during the bear run and that means we should be considering that a bit different and could be doing something that could change it long term.

Of course, things are like that when it comes to how to bet on slots, for me it is an art to be able to do it, because I have seen many people who say that slot machines don't do so well, and this can trigger many things, first of all, they may feel bad. Due to the amount of money they lose, they can surely trigger some ways in which humans can fall into addiction when there is no necessary control of the money, it is something common that basically we must know how to deduce so that we are not wrong as we should bet on a slot because it is very likely that if you indulge too much with the slot, you can lose a lot of money, there are people who usually play the slots only for little money, and I don't blame them, it is a very good strategy, for me it is the best, as I have said in many threads, for me these slots are used to relax, I'm not looking to win, I'm looking to relax and get the hang of it better, to de-stress, I may be very stressed but if I start playing in slots, it happens to me, but for me the trick doesn't It is not about winning, nor about seeking profits, my trick is purely for fun, as I like their music, their way of doing things, well I enjoy it, what I do is basically put myself in the game and play until I spend my money, of course I have to play with 10usd in each game, sometimes I play once a week or 2.

There are people that I have seen who put up to 500usd in the slot machine and lose everything, the truth is that it is something that gives me a lot of pain, I don't know how they do it or how they play but if they lose everything and suddenly rapadia and sporadically they raise the bets and They can have many things that make mistakes, for this reason I will always prefer slots not to play to win money, but for fun, as I have said, I see tagamonedas as a diverse service where you must be very careful, That's why it's like a game for Adults, because any bad movie doesn't involve money and that's delicate.

Yes, HODL is something we must continue to do at this time, especially since the price of bitcoin has now reached $32k. Let's hope this increase continues until $35k and take a break for a bit. I'm optimistic that the SEC will approve a bitcoin ETF and as you said, that could push the price higher than it is now.

The trend of increasing prices this month is quite good. You are right, this cannot be separated from the news that the SEC will approve a spot bitcoin ETF and perhaps because of other events that I don't know about, but the hype spiked in prices that had already reached $35K and are now at $34,152. Of course, what is needed now is patience because time will continue to move forward.

The increased exchange outflow posted by dansus21 is 2021 data. The Coindesk article was updated March 6, 2023 at 22:34.

The picture was published in 2021 and now it is 2023. Bitcoin owners who withdraw some of their assets on the exchange are a better thing than leaving them stored on the exchange for years. So, time will determine when we will experience the next highest price.
I predict that will happen in 2024.

This are the best time to hold. The reason for the latest price surge is because of bitcoin spot ETF hype. Let us see what would happen, but I think bitcoin is still bullish right now. Only what that is needed is time, United States SEC will approve bitcoin ETF and the price would likely go higher. And according to what dansus021 just posted, the exchange outflow has increased and that only means people are not ready to sell but hold instead.

Crypto Exchanges See Biggest Bitcoin Outflow in 7 Months. A Reason to Cheer? - https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/06/08/crypto-exchanges-see-biggest-bitcoin-outflow-in-7-months-a-reason-to-cheer/

Seems more and more people withdraw from exchange for better security when HODL Long term

seems like so many whales are faithful with bitcoin but some people concern here in regard of some people that lose access to their bitcoin therefore increasing the amount of bitcoin never moving is also valid point.
not to mention the fact that some people might not care about some bitcoin, a minimal amount, that still stuck in their wallet and don't bother with it.
that could accumulate to massive amount but I guess saying that this gonna affect massively on percentage of that 76% is a stretch.
I'm sure its mainly because many people are just faithful with bitcoin and know that its best investment ever thats why they choose to hold.
this could reflect the fact that maybe bullrun is near, but of course the correlation isn't strong.

This data has already started pricing in the Bitcoin market looking at the sudden surge in price we got lately.  Just today Bitcoin had a tremendous price increase that saw the price smash the strong $31k resistance level drop the price more than 3 times on getting to that level and go as far as touching $33.7k from the $28k price level, making it roughly a six thousand-dollar increase in the price of Bitcoin.
The momentum is back and Volatility has increased hugely.

The ones that has been published by Cointelegraph about the Bitcoin ETF was fake but there have been applications already and waiting for them to get some approval at the perfect time. It's true that there are no perfect news either good or bad that affects the market sentiment. Those that have been patient all over the time and understands the importance of this attitude towards the market won't get easily get triggered by any of these news because we've been there and done that before. One wrong emotion will tend to do a wrong move.

Return? You've left the market or you've sold already your holdings? I know people like you that are waiting for some push before they go back and these are the people that have sold majority of their Bitcoin and that's the move that they're waiting for because they find the market so sluggish and uninteresting when it's laggard.

Yes, the word “HODL” will be a trend and will be the most used word during the coming months before the halving. Most people are optimistic about a significant rise in the price of Bitcoin after the halving, so most of them will not sell their Bitcoin at the present time. This will definitely boost the price.

It is true that all of these are just predictions for the future, but their impact will begin to become clearer and clearer during the coming period, and this magic word will play a major role in achieving these expectations. So yeah the golden advice for everyone is to just “HODL”.

And the reason for this is that their mentality is completely different, a retail investor is worried about whether their investment does well or not on the short term as they have invested a great deal of their money on this market, while the whales can invest a fortune and they still have a lot of money to spare, so this allows them to not care too much about the price or how long they will need to hold their coins as they know that once the bull market arrives they will make so much money that nothing else will matter.

A big institution has its own balance sheet and yearly report about it. So if most of them are buying bitcoin gradually then some of their actions have already been revealed by the media. There are people who have the wealth to accumulate a large chunk of bitcoin in the long run. This can be some wealthy Arabs, some drug mafia, some corrupt politicians and even some government officials who are buying bitcoin secretly.

To accumulate that much I don't think they did all of that when the price was going down or when the price was down, pretty sure that some big company out there are buying no matter what the price is because as you've said, they're waiting for the bullrun and while they're waiting, they might as well continue accumulating no matter what the price is and in regards to whales taking profit early, the best thing that you can do about this is to take the profit when you have the feeling that the whales are going to make waves or a better option would be that you should have a certain price where no matter what, that's where you're going to sell all your bitcoins and then hope that it's the price right when bitcoin's about to go down again to do some correction.

I think we should focus on market sentiment. There are no good/perfect news. Bitcoin etf thing was fake. There is not much reason to start another Bitcoin bull market. Patient holders are not bad thing for sure but its influence on price can be quick and easily finished. For example we saw Bitcoin hitting 30k, but there its volatile. I am only planning to return if price hits around 35k. That would confirm at least mid term bull trend.

Other than that, people who self-custody their bitcoins do not have an influence on the price, as the OP seems to suggest, because the price of Bitcoin is calculated from buy and sell orders on exchanges.

To influence the price, one way would be to deposit those Bitcoins on the exchanges and place high sell orders (at $100K, $200K or whatever one's target is) but no one does that, as usual, because it means losing control of your Bitcoin with your private keys.

Give a figure like that and I can't understand it, because of that 76% many do not have them anymore because what they have done is lose the private keys, this means that the btc that were under their power are no longer under their power, etnones me I think that when we are thinking about how much or little we can have worldwide, those BTC should no longer be counted, but that makes the price go up more because we have to see how much it is being valued in those who have bitcoin , I am a person who would like to have bitcoin but I have not been able to Collect 1, because the people who have bitcoin in the future will be the ones who have their future assured , is what I think.

This doesn't affect the chances of getting approval for ETFs.

And as for the price, we also need high demand, not just low supply by people refusing to sell. The price won't be moving much if the demand is even lower than the offered supply. People like to quote that only a small fraction of global population owns Bitcoin, so there's a huge potential for new adopters, but it's also true that a lot of people have already heard about Bitcoin and are not interested. And there's no reasons to think that suddenly the masses would change their mind.

People are holding for a specific time and for a specific reason. In the end, he wants to keep the Bitcoin to sell it later. Otherwise, he would have sent it to the address proving the burning. There will be a golden opportunity every four years to sell Bitcoin at the highest possible price and buy it at the lowest possible price. Therefore, expect that each holding will sell a percentage during this period and will buy a percentage when The price drops again, and relying on any statistics that tell you that this can be predicted will not give accurate results.
The most accurate measure is Publicly-Traded Bitcoin Miners Holdings, which sees it rise in the period -6 months before halving and +6 months after.


Last cycle

If you are an investor, then you don't want stress and pressure. What others say is right: you should hold long-term. This is a good strategy, especially as we are getting closer to Bitcoin halving, and we know very well that there will be a rise in Bitcoin in the market.

So for others out there who want to keep up with the short-term and then you know yourself that your knowledge is not enough, don't expect that you will get a good profit in the short-term because the risk is high.

Yes right now,  long term bitcoin holders are having the best of times,  most especially those that bought Bitcoin at a time when the price of Bitcoin was low, let's say those who bought at the 15k to 25k region,  be for the recent price recovery that brought us to this current spot,  and so much so bitcoin halving is around the corner with many being optimistic to see a new Bitcoin price regime that will change the face of everything in respective of what price you do buy bitcoin before now,  but then we can't still say when the bull market will occur so for that there be a need for us to always attempt to make accurate price predictions and best position to hold bitcoin and to what time frame.

I the demand for Bitcoin is on the increase and at that,  anyone buying Bitcoin at this point is directly contributing to the current condition and state of the market,  and still be on time because until Bitcoin recover back to above 40k price,  any price below 40k is still a discount price altogether.

Yeah, that's what we expect to see people buying and selling but holding as well, the market remain favourable to its holders, as the halving us gradually approaching, new bitcoin will be mined and the value will be added to the supply stream while people will be buying the more and also selling the more because of the high volatile market following every halving, many Institutional holders would also have released to acquire more while the value increases together with the corresponding demands.

It is difficult to say something meaningful about the figures presented because I did not want to go into the methodology of how they concluded that it was 76%, but if it is something similar to those studies that concluded that we irretrievably lost about 4 million BTC because no one transferred them 4 or 5 years, then these are just simple guesses and nothing more.

From my point of view, it somehow does not seem very realistic that 3/4 of all BTC in circulation (which is about 14.6 million BTC) is not for sale, and at the same time the price of those on the market is not much higher than it is currently. Although this may show how small the market really is and how little demand really is.

When I just remember those stories about how there won't be enough BTC for everyone who wants it, and from 46 million millionaires a couple of years ago, today we have reached the number of some 60 million people who can be called that. If only 10% of them wanted to buy 1 BTC, all this that is supposedly for sale today would not be enough

and



Are both part of the Dynamics happening.

Investors have seen the :

2013 runup followed by the 2014 crash
2017 runup followed by the 2018 crash
2021 runup followed by the 2022 crash.

so many of us my self included are prepping and hoping for a repeat of history.

Investors who are still holding today are already in a profitable position if they release the amount of Bitcoin they own. In making a decision to sell or continue holding, investors have other considerations that can delay the decision to sell and continue in a holding position even though long-term investors can release their Bitcoin holdings at any time as mk4 said.
The consideration of delaying and continuing to hold may be due to waiting for the next halving and to me that is a reasonable consideration.

Yes, and for sure they know what's coming and that's why they continue to hold and accumulate, and again it's only Bitcoin that can we can really trust, as compare to thousands of altcoins. Yeah, they can yield more than Bitcoin in the bull run, nevertheless, it's very hard to put our faith in them as any time then can do a rug pull.

So that is a huge numbers in my opinion, and I believed that it's mostly retails investors, just like rest of us. For institutions, I will not be surprised that they are going to stock pile. But for us, we should also do the same and be ready for the upcoming bull run next year. Plenty of time for us to accumulate.

Thanks for sharing, but for me, I would need more facts before believing all these guys calling figures, and statistics calling are not facts until proven as such.  I know there are heavy long-term hodlers and investors which could explain why Bitcoin could hold some liquidity in hundreds of billions without blinking, but not that much.

Come to think of it, in 2021 at the AHT, Bitcoin hit a market capitalization of $1.28 trillion but later reached lower levels and was even lower in December last year judging by the price attained (I can't remember the cap then) before growing steadily again over time. And now, also with the help of the recent buying, it is at $581.5 billion according to Coinmarketcap.

If you plus, divide, multiply and subtract you would naturally know that 76% is not feasible since a drop from the ATH is way more than 50%. How could over 24% (100-76)% drop the market in liquidity as much as that if truly 76% ardent long-term holders are in for the entire coin in circulation?

This has to be. I mean they know what Bitcoins are capable of. They are investing and trusting in Bitcoins. So definitely they have to own a large amount of total supply. Moreover, they have achieved this number, due to the regular accumulation of Bitcoins. As they have planned for long term, so they regularly buy or collect Bitcoins and sell in very few occasions. So if you ask me, then yes I am not surprised at all by seeing the numbers.

The number of coins on exchanges is the lowest it's been in years (around 2018) and consistently declining since 2020. We've certainly had a supply shortage since then. The reality is having a low supply available on exchanges is meaningless without there being a demand higher than the currently available supply. Once there is increased demand there it will be easy to see a supply shock.


This is precisely the dynamics of a bull market - long-term holders selling - as we've seen in each previous bull market. Ironically the fact long-term holders are continuing to increase isn't confirmation of a bull market, in fact the opposite is true, it means Bitcoin isn't in a bull market what so ever. But it does mean - or should mean - that once a bull market starts there will be much less supply available initially.

You can see this more clearly from the 1Y-2Y holders who having been selling since 2022 despite 2Y+ holders continuing to hold. They've slowed down but still selling after going from 20% to around 12%.

Yup, it's what's happening now. Most of the holders aren't willing to sell at any point now especially since the halving is approaching. We can just say that the majority are just waiting for the major push but this doesn't mean that there's not that much in circulation, there's still a lot but if you ask each individual, most of us just don't want to sell when we're not optimistic of doing so. We're just trying to be wiser the second time around and waiting for the right time after the halving.

Even though almost 80% are holding their coins there are still lots on exchanges which can be sold and unless we get real adoption it will be tough to create a supply shortage of bitcoin.

Also the higher bitcoin goes the more people will deposit back into the exchange to sell for fiat. This happened in 2021 where the higher we went the more of the long term coins started to move.

A big percentage of Bitcoin's overall supply must be kept by their owners, but it doesn't mean that since 76% of the Bitcoin that is in circulation are not being sold, they are hodled. I think a considerable portion of these coins that are not moving are either lost or forgotten. Satoshi himself has more than a million coins that are dormant. And then there are those old coins that are permanently inaccessible because of lost keys. There are also coins that aren't moving because they're kept by custodians.

But still I believe many are eagerly waiting for the bull run that follows the halving. So they're not selling.

It seems everyone is ready for the Bitcoin block halving. It's more likely the Bitcoin block halving is their indicator of why they are not selling.
With the current price of Bitcoin, I remember the pre-bull run last 2017-2018. Which months before Bitcoin block halving, you will see how the price of Bitcoin started to climb.

I am not entirely sure how good this is, I mean the number doesn't mean anything to me because there is nothing to compare, sure its the highest ever but is it a good things highest ever or a bad thing? While its good that there are a lot of people who would like to buy and hold, its also bad that the market is getting lesser and lesser liquid, and that could cause some trouble. Imagine if you owned all the bitcoins in the world, and you charge a million dollars per bitcoin, what happens if nobody wants it? Maybe people give up saying you are the only one and think its too centralized? At the end this is something that looks good, but only good if people keep on demanding and buying, as we can see its not even over 30k right now, so it doesn't seem to have good impact yet.

Most probably those hodler bought their Bitcoin at a cheaper price and they are just waiting for the next bull run before taking profit. This could be a good study about Bitcoin adaption as well and I’m also part of it since most of my holdings are with Bitcoin right now. The next hull market will be a big thing, let’s hope that whales will not take profit at the early part of the bull market so we can still see the real peak with Bitcoin.

I wonder if that would be to indicate saturation in buying at all, if they already have so much have we much left in reserve to buy more.  However the action recently has been to close above the 200 day average and generally it seems we can move far closer to 30k then the prior 20k orbit we had been holding after losing prior gains in this year.  Obviously the wild rumors back and forth dont add clarity, its much required that we iron out all these fears and bullish trends to find one that can last longer then a month or so.

Signaling that investors are ready for the upcoming HODL, perhaps with these two news [Halving and Spot ETF] to be approved by the SEC makes a lot of confidence from them to stay HODL in preparation.

It would not be surprising if some of them missed the previous ATH train and now they have started to hold back for the next cycle in addition to the news of the ETF by the SEC this clearly can affect everything they believe in maybe with more than 70% holders it is something positive that can indicate they are ready to look forward to bullish.

It's appears that people are getting more prepared for this coming halving than we have ever had in the past. Many are concerned about holding what they have and looking for means to add more to it, which increases the number of buyers in the market, and there are fewer people willing to sell at this point.

I don't know if this is just the amount of faith and belief people have in this coming halving or if this also has something to do with ETF having a higher chance of getting approved, which will bring about positive growth in the market.
 
Everyone seems to really be preparing themselves and doesn't want to be taken by surprise. If people can continue holding and no one is willing to sell, we might likely experience a bull run even before the halving time when there is scarcity. There is only one thing that could come afterward, which is an increase in price.

Like I always say, the decision for the price is based on the market, not the rest. So even there is just 1 bitcoin left in the market, then whoever owns that 1 bitcoin and puts it up for sale will end up deciding the price of bitcoin.

If you own bitcoin then you are not deciding the price, it is in your wallet and you are not selling it, how could that change the market price of it, it would not and it would not cause the price to move at all. So, the holders are not the ones that decide on the price of bitcoin, sure they buy at one time to hold it first, and that is good idea and sure it may have made it go up, but since it's long term, it is just one purchase and not really a big deal.

I believe that we are going to see it go up more in the future but that is based on traders who sell and that will make all the difference. I get that it may not all that simple for the time being, but we need to end up being a lot more hyped about it to buy more and make it go up.

Just to balance the potential over-bullishness, these "long-term investors" can just as easily dump their holdings at any time they want. Not because they're currently holding, doesn't automatically mean they're waiting for new all-time highs.

Yeah best language ever hodl hodl hodl,  I know that the percentage of Bitcoin long-term investors/holders is going to increase when it was reported a few weeks back of large Bitcoin movement from the exchange wallets into personal cold wallets.

That was a clear indication of bitcoin holders' positive response to the forthcoming halving and the most awaited and talked about Bitcoin bull market.

This is according to Glassnode and I saw it on the news

https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:b63b789df094b:0-hodling-hard-bitcoin-s-long-term-investors-own-over-76-of-all-btc-for-the-first-time/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-long-term-investors-own-76-percent-btc


If people are not selling 76% of bitcoin that are in circulation, it means people are holding it and you know what this could mean for the next halving and the approval of spot bitcoin ETF by the US SEC.

HODL