Bitcoin's Market Performance During the Christmas Period

Fara Chan

hero member

Activity: 1302

Merit: 516

Bitcoin Casino Est. 2013

Quote from: Relonage on December 25, 2023, 01:40:55 AM

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

Performance like that can still be said to be good and very normal because Bitcoin is very different from other cryptocurrencies on the market so its performance is always different from the others. And now everyone can also see how it performs after Christmas because the improvement can still be seen even though it still hasn't surpassed the $45K price tag.

Quote from: kotajikikox on December 27, 2023, 11:16:49 PM

not bad performance for the past Decembers but what we have now is different because we are nearing closing the year it has a good run and still running good so maybe this year will be different from those passed Decembers and the good indications that History not just repeating itself.

Obviously that is not a bad performance and now this is also the case where Bitcoin's performance itself is still quite good and has not experienced a significant decline. And if a major increase still doesn't happen by the end of this year, perhaps the closing price for the year will still be at a little over $44K or still below $45K for Bitcoin.

kryptqnick

legendary

Activity: 3248

Merit: 1402

Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!

I agree with those asking the op to share more information about the calculations. While it makes sense that some people cash out near Christmas because they want to buy presents for their families and friends, there are very different ways to calculate the price increase/decrease. If it's a 24-hour change, I think it's way too short. If it's a 7-day change, that's a different story. But let's also not forget that in many countries the New Year is a bigger holiday than Christmas, so perhaps the whole period between Christmas and the New Year should count as a period of interest.
I also want to point out that while the op's results show a decrease in 4 out of 6 cases, only once the decrease is significant (in 2021). Minor decreases or increases don't really matter, in my opinion, because they happen all the time.

radjie

sr. member

Activity: 1792

Merit: 264

Quote from: deathcode on December 27, 2023, 10:27:25 PM

Quote from: DapanasFruit on December 27, 2023, 10:07:19 PM

The holiday season is usually the time when the crypto market can be doing some decrease in activities and also the time when a good number of people may turn their crypto holdings into cash...hence Bitcoin is inclined to be bearish though we still have to see the final number for 2023 since there are still remaining days of the year but what I understand is that this year Bitcoin is actually not doing so bad and it is due to the excitement coming from the offing ETF approval and the halving in 2024.

Bitcoin is still quite strong at the moment. Maybe what you say is true because of some of the news you mentioned. and not many holders are releasing their Bitcoins for holiday purposes.
but the impact of high transaction fees may also influence some holders not to sell their Bitcoins. especially those who hold Bitcoins in their wallets and have to send them to an exchange, as that requires quite high fees.

Looking at market price movements this year, it doesn't seem too bad for Bitcoin, even though most people think that many people need cash during the Christmas and New Year holidays, but with the news about the Bitcoin halving in 2024, most people assume that Bitcoin will The price has increased so that the option to store Bitcoin is increasingly being implemented nowadays, some are even using it to increase their investment assets in Bitcoin.

bayu7adi

hero member

Activity: 1470

Merit: 555

dont be greedy

Quote from: MusaMohamed on December 25, 2023, 01:45:30 AM

But a more important point is Bitcoin halving will happen in April 2024, even if SEC. refuse all Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, 4 more months will be enough for Bitcoin to recover.

Honestly, I'm skeptical about a recovery during the halving. Looking back at last year, Bitcoin had this super exciting bull run about a year after the halving. Yeah, it might take some more time before we see Bitcoin heading to the moon.

I'm still unsure about the ETF, so in the near future, Bitcoin might experience a bit of a price shake-up. It could go bearish, maybe down to around $40k or even $38k (worst-case scenario). This isn't really a prediction, but gearing up for the worst-case scenario isn't a bad idea.

Imo, short-term = hard to promise, cause ETF
mid-term = looks a bit favorable for the Bitcoin market due to the halving,
long run = I still believe in Bitcoin,

kotajikikox

full member

Activity: 2548

Merit: 217

Quote from: Relonage on December 25, 2023, 01:40:55 AM

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

not bad performance for the past Decembers but what we have now is different because we are nearing closing the year it has a good run and still running good so maybe this year will be different from those passed Decembers and the good indications that History not just repeating itself.

Smack That Ace

legendary

Activity: 1974

Merit: 1108

Free Free Palestine

Quote from: deathcode on December 27, 2023, 10:27:25 PM

Quote from: DapanasFruit on December 27, 2023, 10:07:19 PM

The holiday season is usually the time when the crypto market can be doing some decrease in activities and also the time when a good number of people may turn their crypto holdings into cash...hence Bitcoin is inclined to be bearish though we still have to see the final number for 2023 since there are still remaining days of the year but what I understand is that this year Bitcoin is actually not doing so bad and it is due to the excitement coming from the offing ETF approval and the halving in 2024.

Bitcoin is still quite strong at the moment. Maybe what you say is true because of some of the news you mentioned. and not many holders are releasing their Bitcoins for holiday purposes.
but the impact of high transaction fees may also influence some holders not to sell their Bitcoins. especially those who hold Bitcoins in their wallets and have to send them to an exchange, as that requires quite high fees.

The reasons you both give make sense for bitcoin's price movement in recent days, but we shouldn't be too surprised when things don't move as usual. Because the future is unpredictable and we cannot expect history to always repeat itself exactly. The demand for bitcoin is different each year so there will be different movements, it doesn't have to be close to major holidays or at the end of the year people will always sell their bitcoins for cash. Especially when the Halving is coming closer than ever and selling bitcoin at this time is very sensitive and risky. I think everyone knows this, so a lot of people didn't sell their bitcoins over the past Christmases, and I also believe they won't sell their bitcoins as we head into the new year.

deathcode

copper member

Activity: 1428

Merit: 253

Quote from: DapanasFruit on December 27, 2023, 10:07:19 PM

The holiday season is usually the time when the crypto market can be doing some decrease in activities and also the time when a good number of people may turn their crypto holdings into cash...hence Bitcoin is inclined to be bearish though we still have to see the final number for 2023 since there are still remaining days of the year but what I understand is that this year Bitcoin is actually not doing so bad and it is due to the excitement coming from the offing ETF approval and the halving in 2024.

Bitcoin is still quite strong at the moment. Maybe what you say is true because of some of the news you mentioned. and not many holders are releasing their Bitcoins for holiday purposes.
but the impact of high transaction fees may also influence some holders not to sell their Bitcoins. especially those who hold Bitcoins in their wallets and have to send them to an exchange, as that requires quite high fees.

DapanasFruit

member

Activity: 1218

Merit: 49

Binance #Smart World Global Token

The holiday season is usually the time when the crypto market can be doing some decrease in activities and also the time when a good number of people may turn their crypto holdings into cash...hence Bitcoin is inclined to be bearish though we still have to see the final number for 2023 since there are still remaining days of the year but what I understand is that this year Bitcoin is actually not doing so bad and it is due to the excitement coming from the offing ETF approval and the halving in 2024.

ChiBitCTy

legendary

Activity: 2282

Merit: 3014

I’m actually surprised to find that on most Christmases there’s actually been a downturn instead of and up tick. I would think since the topic of bitcoin tends to come up a lot during family Christmas get together, that more people would be buying based off that, but as you point out that’s typically not such the case. I wonder how January tends to perform ..

Faisal2202

hero member

Activity: 1386

Merit: 513

Payment Gateway Allows Recurring Payments

Quote from: Relonage on December 25, 2023, 01:40:55 AM

However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin's price movement beyond historical patterns.

Thanks for sharing the stats but what is the source of these stats, did you take them from some site if yes then please mention the reference as well for authenticity or did you calculate them manually?

I was also thinking/observing that in the Christmas market can fluctuate under the shadow of current sentiments about ETF's results being announced on 10th January. I concluded that the market will be very volatile in the first days of January. And besides all that, I all thought the market might be highly volatile in the last 10 days of December but so far it is doing good and keeping the support of $43k.

You provided stats, showing a pattern that is very easy to detect and that is, in 2017 the price increased and after then for two years it decreased and then it increased in 2020 and it then decreased for the next two years and now the third year 2023 it might increase as per pattern. And the funny thing is price is increasing and not following the previous two years's trend or average trend either.

MFahad

hero member

Activity: 2506

Merit: 645

Eloncoin.org - Mars, here we come!

Quote from: Relonage on December 25, 2023, 01:40:55 AM

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

Since 2017, over the seven days following Christmas, the probability of a price decrease has been over 66%. This trend indicates a prevalent likelihood of a decline in Bitcoin's value during this particular period. It's noticeable that the market sentiment during Christmas for Bitcoin hasn't exhibited consistent bullish behavior, as evidenced by the majority of the years showing a decline in value or a relatively modest increase.

However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin's price movement beyond historical patterns.

Based on the information you have shared, it doesn't seem like there is much chance for the Bitcoin price to go up on Christmas. It is also easy to predict that the price may either remain stable, or there will be a higher chance of a downward trend. Apart from history, the reason for this is that people often go on vacation at Christmas, and because of the vacation, they often spend more time with their families. Majority of people exit the cryptocurrency market, due to which trading is negligible, and this will definitely have an impact on the market.

when the capital does not come in then the market price may go down instead of up. However, I don't think we can see any significant increase in the price of Bitcoin this Christmas. Different factors can influence each time.There is no specific period at which various factors may affect the market a lot.However, many experts are thinking that the last week of the year may be bearish in the market.

SquirrelJulietGarden

hero member

Activity: 1442

Merit: 775

Quote from: crwth on December 26, 2023, 04:16:30 AM

The primary thing about the changes in prices is the market. I think the following, on Christmas day, is different each time because of the investor's actions. Like how they would be in the holidays? Maybe in 2020, since there are no vacations or the pandemic is still rampant, it has increased in price because the money has nowhere to go. For 2021 however, the biggest decrease, probably because a lot of people already wanted to go on vacation or some sort. I believe that's the case and cannot classify how the investors are during the times.

Christmas is when people go with holidays, hang out with friends, meet their family members and it's special time each year. They will be less actively on cryptocurrency market even they can do it with mobile devices and Internet connection.

Whales and market makers will take advantage of Christmas and other holidays to dump the market. Usually they will go dumping the market than pumping it but this year is special and it raises a very uncertain big question.

Will the market be dumped or will it be pumped because of SEC decision on Bitcoin Spot ETF applications in next 2 weeks?

If it is in another year, I bet on dump but this year, even I think there are many reasons for Bitcoin to be dumped, SEC decision is a big uncertainty.

crwth

copper member

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1280

https://linktr.ee/crwthopia

The primary thing about the changes in prices is the market. I think the following, on Christmas day, is different each time because of the investor's actions. Like how they would be in the holidays? Maybe in 2020, since there are no vacations or the pandemic is still rampant, it has increased in price because the money has nowhere to go. For 2021 however, the biggest decrease, probably because a lot of people already wanted to go on vacation or some sort. I believe that's the case and cannot classify how the investors are during the times.

rodskee

full member

Activity: 2520

Merit: 204

Quote from: Relonage on December 25, 2023, 01:40:55 AM

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

Since 2017, over the seven days following Christmas, the probability of a price decrease has been over 66%. This trend indicates a prevalent likelihood of a decline in Bitcoin's value during this particular period. It's noticeable that the market sentiment during Christmas for Bitcoin hasn't exhibited consistent bullish behavior, as evidenced by the majority of the years showing a decline in value or a relatively modest increase.

However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin's price movement beyond historical patterns.

I don't think that 7 days is enough to evaluate the price and comparison will come
because there is a need for certain time to make it successful in having a list,

and besides it is normal for the market to drop in the early end of December because
the season is ending so as the investors are taking their profits at least for a year , but what is
important is that we have mostly climbing from October to December things that we must be
thankful then.

Emmanuelex

jr. member

Activity: 137

Merit: 2

That's really nice
I wish you will update and add this year's Christmas performance to the list as well.

NewRanger

sr. member

Activity: 1624

Merit: 341

Buzz App - Spin wheel, farm rewards

Quote from: KingsDen on December 26, 2023, 02:43:07 AM

The few Christmas I witnessed in this forum(2021 and 2022), there's one thing that is common among them and that is price decrease in the Christmas day. I understood that it is because of some sell pressure by people who wants to enjoy their Christmas day with friends and loved ones. Currently, the reduction in price during yesterday Christmas was expected but it was moderate as the bitcoin price is currently still in the range of $$42, slightly off the $43 range.

If this Christmas didn't reduce the bitcoin price much, it shows that the bullish market is very much around. This is another evidence. Meanwhile, I will go and check what really happened the past years after the Christmas day. It can give me the clue of what I will be expecting this time.

Not only during the Christmas period, there is a decrease in prices in Consumer Behavior, this is also seen during holidays, especially Saturdays and Sundays. Some of them will sell a number of bitcoins to meet their shopping needs and enjoy a relaxing week with family and friends, although on the other hand it also has an impact on the market, causing a little pressure and I think currently this is not too much of a problem if we pay attention.

For long-term purchases, a decline is a good decision, but we have to make sure by looking at the existing data so that when we buy there won't be another decline after the decline with tips, combining several tools will give us the best signal with less risk. This means that we will easily know the direction of the next market trend and prepare to accumulate it again.

KingsDen

legendary

Activity: 1288

Merit: 1081

Goodnight, o_e_l_e_o 🌹

Quote from: Relonage on December 25, 2023, 01:40:55 AM

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

The few Christmas I witnessed in this forum(2021 and 2022), there's one thing that is common among them and that is price decrease in the Christmas day. I understood that it is because of some sell pressure by people who wants to enjoy their Christmas day with friends and loved ones. Currently, the reduction in price during yesterday Christmas was expected but it was moderate as the bitcoin price is currently still in the range of $$42, slightly off the $43 range.

If this Christmas didn't reduce the bitcoin price much, it shows that the bullish market is very much around. This is another evidence. Meanwhile, I will go and check what really happened the past years after the Christmas day. It can give me the clue of what I will be expecting this time.

This ought to be in reputation board.

RioBlemz

jr. member

Activity: 77

Merit: 9

What is the drive to Bitcoin? A lot of person are positive about the ETF and also Halving by the side. Notwithstanding the decrement you are seeing is for a short term as the market is finding a resting position before it takes another major move.

traderethereum

hero member

Activity: 2870

Merit: 574

Vave.com - Crypto Casino

Quote from: YUriy1991 on December 25, 2023, 11:07:48 PM

Quote from: hugeblack on December 25, 2023, 08:44:33 PM

The only benefit is the rapid growth of Bitcoin, which is starting to slow down.

This part is quite easy to understand why this is so. It slows down because people are confused and currently many people need faster payments while still in the festive period and the New Year moment and have to look for brokers who offer urgent settlement options for fast transfers as late as we can wait until the next 1 working days.

Of course, people now need more cash at the end of the year. They may sell their assets to enjoy the turn of the year, which will result in crypto prices experiencing a correction.
We can only hope that the correction that occurs will not cause the price to decline too deeply.
The decline in the price of bitcoin will provide an opportunity for investors to increase the amount of bitcoin. They will start buying bitcoin at a low price and continue buying it even if the price of bitcoin continues to decline and could remain at a low price for some time.
But if we can't buy it yet, we must stay calm and wait for when we can buy bitcoin again.

YUriy1991

sr. member

Activity: 882

Merit: 215

#SWGT CERTIK Audited

Quote from: hugeblack on December 25, 2023, 08:44:33 PM

The only benefit is the rapid growth of Bitcoin, which is starting to slow down.

This part is quite easy to understand why this is so. It slows down because people are confused and currently many people need faster payments while still in the festive period and the New Year moment and have to look for brokers who offer urgent settlement options for fast transfers as late as we can wait until the next 1 working days.

Fundamentals Of

sr. member

Activity: 2380

Merit: 366

I'd rather give more weight to the prices of Bitcoin during Christmas days than the seven days following Christmas. Anything can happen within a week, but the view that is actually much wider is when you compare the prices of Bitcoin during Christmas days. That would be comparing annual prices of Bitcoin on a certain day of the year. It's more pleasing to the eyes and more suggestive of what to do with your Bitcoin. It teaches us to hodl long term because although there were Christmas days in the past in which the price has gone down, most of it is really about price appreciation. Comparing Christmas day prices gives us a lesson.

SquirrelJulietGarden

hero member

Activity: 1442

Merit: 775

Quote from: hugeblack on December 25, 2023, 08:44:33 PM

The chart below ignores the fact that the price changes dramatically over the four years, so the last 4 years have a greater impact on the price than the first 4 years. Therefore, if you notice, the beginning of the chart was in the form of a straight line, while all of them are in the form of a pyramid.

You are right about not full story from the chart on Bitcoin market growth over years but I think it does a good job to show Bitcoin price growth over years, even not with full details.

It will be endless argument like even a monthly, yearly chart over years won't be enough to display full details. People can argue to have 1 minute chart to see more details but please don't think I am writing this to argue with you.

It is only to explain that the chart from BTC_Archive is good enough to give us a view with a big picture.

Something is more helpful but not full details about the market.
https://casebitcoin.com/charts#data_tables

hugeblack

legendary

Activity: 2702

Merit: 4002

Quote from: SquirrelJulietGarden on December 25, 2023, 08:04:29 AM

A chart on X from BTC_Archive.
Think wider and bigger, think out of the Christmas Eve and Christmas Box, like look at Yearly candles will help you to have a merry Christmas and a happy new year, then you can hold your bitcoin and get profit after holidays.

The chart below ignores the fact that the price changes dramatically over the four years, so the last 4 years have a greater impact on the price than the first 4 years. Therefore, if you notice, the beginning of the chart was in the form of a straight line, while all of them are in the form of a pyramid.

Quote from: khiholangkang on December 25, 2023, 08:29:08 AM

But thanks for the data, it's pretty good and maybe it needs to provide a broader view and needs to have a certain classification every year, because for me every year in the bitcoin cycle is different, so it needs to be studied in determining conclusions.

The only benefit is the rapid growth of Bitcoin, which is starting to slow down.

siedemtrzy

jr. member

Activity: 80

Merit: 1

Well, that's expected. People are spending their time with family instead of crypto trading. And a lot of people sell their coins to purchase gifts, I'm sure of it.

khiholangkang

hero member

Activity: 2184

Merit: 599

But in my opinion for Christmas this time it will only drop a few percent, because maybe the calculation you made is only for 7 days after Christmas, so not from the total month of December, and the results will be random, especially if you use data every year, this will look unfair because bitcon has a cycle, bearish and bullish which basically if at a bullish moment will get more price increases than decreases, and vice versa.

But thanks for the data, it's pretty good and maybe it needs to provide a broader view and needs to have a certain classification every year, because for me every year in the bitcoin cycle is different, so it needs to be studied in determining conclusions.

SquirrelJulietGarden

hero member

Activity: 1442

Merit: 775

A chart on X from BTC_Archive.
Think wider and bigger, think out of the Christmas Eve and Christmas Box, like look at Yearly candles will help you to have a merry Christmas and a happy new year, then you can hold your bitcoin and get profit after holidays.
https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/yearly-candles/

Quote

🎄 Bitcoin Price on Christmas Day:
2010: $0.25
2011: $4.22
2012: $13.35
2013: $690
2014: $318
2015: $455
2016: $895
2017: $13,983
2018: $3,779
2019: $7,193
2020: $24,705
2021: $50,440
2022: $16,828
2023: $43,146

hugeblack

legendary

Activity: 2702

Merit: 4002

Tracking the price of Bitcoin in a narrow range, such as the Christmas period, and comparing it with the same period last year and previous years, leads to the monitoring period being very selective, and therefore the results generated are random, or, at best, not recommended.
The minimum period should be 3 months, taking into account support and resistance levels and 4-year cycles.

MusaMohamed

sr. member

Activity: 966

Merit: 306

During time of weekends, holidays, there will be less orders in order books and market trading volume will be smaller. It gives whales good chances to manipulate the market.

I don't know they will dump the market around this Christmas and New Year holidays or will pump it, we soon will know.

Bitcoin Spot ETF applications soon will get a final decision from SEC in next 2 weeks. If they approve, Bitcoin will be pumped a lot but if they reject all Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, you know how the market will react.

But a more important point is Bitcoin halving will happen in April 2024, even if SEC. refuse all Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, 4 more months will be enough for Bitcoin to recover.

Relonage

newbie

Activity: 8

Merit: 0

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

Since 2017, over the seven days following Christmas, the probability of a price decrease has been over 66%. This trend indicates a prevalent likelihood of a decline in Bitcoin's value during this particular period. It's noticeable that the market sentiment during Christmas for Bitcoin hasn't exhibited consistent bullish behavior, as evidenced by the majority of the years showing a decline in value or a relatively modest increase.

However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin's price movement beyond historical patterns.

Topic: Bitcoin's Market Performance During the Christmas Period (Read 264 times)