Topic: Bitcoins price can go up to $1million (Read 5123 times)

I have to disagree with Bitcoin replacing the M0 vs M1 or even M1+ part of M2 in fiat. There is a very important difference with Bitcoin the risk of a fractional reserve is very much higher that with a modern fiat such as USD largely because there is no central bank print more money in order to bail out a "to big to fail bank". Furthermore the deflationary nature of Bitcoin very much increases the risk of a lender that is short defaulting. Now one should ask the following question from anyone who has moved between fiat and Bitcoin: Was the fiat that was spent to purchase Bitcoin come from cash under the mattress (M0) or did it come from chequeing accounts (M1), saving accounts, money market funds etc. (M2) or even credit cards or lines of credit (M3)? A similar argument can be made for sales of Bitcoin for fiat.

On the other hand were the BTC on deposit with an institution running a Bitcoin fractional reserve that did not go bust?

Outright impossible. At least not as long as governments exist.

Never

$ 10k would work for me as a start!

If that was the case, 1 satoshi would equal 1 penny and uBTC would become the new unit (for example 1.63 uBTC = $1.63). Not bad.

We do not need many of such years to get to $1m

This topic was started on February 25, 2013, and what a year it was. 

Keep dreaming

No.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Transaction_fees

But doesn't the transaction fee stay the same no matter how large or small the transaction?

Quite right - I wouldn't consider a 0.0003% fee 'large' to send that much to someone else. Now, to get that kind of balance in the first place...

300 is NOT a large transaction fee if you're sending 1,000,000 securely around the world.

The current fee prevents dust spam. If the value of bitcoins were to increase such a large amount, the fee would also change.

But everyone would be millionaire then, remember?

If bitcoins reached $1 millions what would happen to the transaction fee. 0.0005 of 1,000,000 is 300. That would be a large fee.

The price can rise to $1 million, but it won't.

i guess this is more accurate now ...

Rational Exuberance 

Bitcoin is now 3-pixel wide.

This thread seems like a good place to drop this:



(From my Using Memes to Explain Bitcoin)

Bitcoins are a couple pixels larger now than when I first published this, but you get the idea.

There are many fantasy here, just feel fun to read all these get-rich-quick dreams, but who knows if that really becomes true (for once at last)

So who is to say that the all time high may not already been $30 for 1 satoshi? Or $3,000,000,000 per BTC? Not traded on a market of course so I wouldn't count it. This would be a simple way for someone to claim they could send up front, but I don't know how many you could actually fool. Something like blockchain.info shows you the estimated USD balance.

Sadly, there's probably scammers out there doing exactly that. A Flim-Flam man could easily convince a mark that a satoshi is more valuable than a bitcoin, and that bitcoins are only used by the earlier adapters, albeit at a lost. That is why all the earlier adapters are claiming to be newbies so they can purchase satoshis, because those are going up in value quicker than bitcoins due to the fact there are more of them.

The uneducated mark would think that the above makes sense, commencing the deal. They would then be told the confirmations take a little longer with satoshis, but the new and improved blockchain will make the process much faster in only a couple months.

I'll sell 1 Satoshi for $1 USD. I'll even pay the transaction fee. We'll set an all time high, LMK.

I thought we where all secretly in agreement that each coin is worth at least $1M
 

All you have to do is find someone who is willing to trade $1 USD for 100 Satoshis. Then we'll have a new high, lol.

One can have a discussion without thinking it is going to happen.  It is useful to provide an upper bound on value.  One Bitcoin for example will never be worth $10 trillion USD when measured in 2010 dollars (adjusting for inflation).  One the other hand the bitcoin money supply is currently only worth about 0.006% of global money supply.  So while Bitcoin will probably not replace ANY currency (much less all of them) if it carved out a niche where it was used by say 1% of the population it shows the upside potential is significant.

Dreamers... there is no way Bitcoin is going to replace all World currencies.

The value of all CURRENCY is closer to $5T putting an upper limit on value of about $240,000 USD (circa 2010) per BTC.   Bitcoin replaces cash not fractional reserve account balances.  Using global M0 is the apples to apples comparison.



Semi off topic so skip ahead if not interested
When people wonder why the price of everything keeps going up ... the answer is right there.  Money is simply an accounting system.  Money isn't wealth.  Money is used as an intermidiary when trading one product or service for another product or service.  Most people don't think of it this way but your wages are a product/service.  You are trading your work product for money to buy other products and services.  So why has there been so much price inflation?  Simple the amount of money has doubled roughly every decade from 1970 onward.  ~0.25T in 1970, ~0.5T in 1980, ~1.0T in 1990, ~2.0T in 2000, >4T in 2010.  Everything else being equal (no improvement in technology, no increase in supply of goods and services) we would expect the price of goods and service on average to cost about 16 times what they did in 1970s.   There simply are more units of this thing called money floating around fighting for the same goods and services.

Of course prices do generally fall due to technology (more efficient production both increasing the amount of supply and cost of production).  Take gasoline one thing people love to complain "costs too much".  In gold terms the price of gasoline has fallen about 80% since 1919.



Is this because oil companies are "nice"?  No it is because the cost of production over the last century has (adjusted for inflation) actually declined by about 80%.  Sadly thing never ending technological progress masks the true effect of inflation.  If there had been no productivity increases (but a massive increase to the money supply) we would expect the price of gasoline today to still cost roughly 0.14 ounces of gold per gallon or ~$24.00 in 2010 dollars.  However if over a period of time (say a decade) the money supply doubles but productivity increases 50% then prices (in aggregate) will "only" rise 33%.  See (price) inflation is low!    The true effect of monetary debasement is partially hidden by rising productivity.  As a side note all wealth in the world comes from increased productivity.  If your activity increases your personal wealth by means other than productivity gains then it is simply a transfer of wealth from one person to another.

So what does this have to do with the OP point?
While the global money supply can (and probably will) inflate that would only increase the nominal PRICE not the VALUE.  If the money supply doubles over the next hundred years then one would expect the price of BTC to also double but then again so would the price of everything else.  If Bitcoin replaced all currency globally (not a scenario I find likely but good as an upper limit) we would expect the price to be on the order of $240,000 when measured in 2010 dollars.

Satoshi = 0.01 nice!

Why make billions when you can make...millions?

Since you are talking theoretically, prices could actually go up to 1 billion. muhahahaha

The total of all world currency is about $21trillion.
That means the price could go up to $1million for each bitcoin.