Topic: Bitcoins price trends (and why the price will be lower later today) (Read 6328 times)

Some people confuse market capitalization (that is total bitcoins times the current market price) with the money so far invested in Bitcoins. You see, I believe much less than 50% of bitcoins have been traded at these prices. In other words, most of the bitcoins have either never been sold (they are kept by miners), or have been sold at much lower prices some weeks ago. So really the money that has come in to the Bitcoin economy is much, much, much less than 120 millions. Say 30 millions, that is peanuts in any start up like this, that has had so much attention from the media, and that promises to change the world.

Also Russia and other countries are supporting Bitcoin, judging from their TV broadcasts. So for a couple of billions of dollars to come to Bitocoin in the following months, I think its an easy bet. Of course if bitcoin security is breached, or severe legal problems happen, then real and permanent crashes could ocurr, but not until then bro.

Also I dont see why you equate the total products and services exchanged with bitcoin (over which timeframe by the way?) with the market value of bitcoins. These are no comparable units.

Regards.

Alot of miners are keeping the majority of btc they create. Buy and hold and there is no need to care about short term swings.

I do believe in long term adoption, that's why I'm here and invested in bitcoin but we need to keep it real ... who in their right mind believes the bitcoin economy (that is real products and services exchanged) is anywhere near $120,000,000 which is the current value of all bitcoins? I would be hard pressed to consider it's 1/1000 of that ... this is pure speculation - which doesn't mean it isn't justified but speculation nonetheless which can evaporate overnight.

That's the issue ... if confidence remains high and there is constant influx of new investors/users we may avoid a crash and smoothly transition into more productive economy - it may happen, but I do not give that too much chance after I saw how reactionary is the market. A small fluctuation in the downward direction and the panic will probably start. That's just the way I see it. There is no way a $140,000 worth of products and services is being added to the market every day - I don't think anybody would dispute that.

And why would I want to manipulate the market ... after it crashes I do not think it's coming back any time soon.

Ha ha. No doubt we have the next nobel prize of economics in this forum This has nothing to do with big investors, just a couple millions dollars makes a big difference at this stage, they could come from smaller investors too. Then again, the whole point of bitcoin at this starting stage is growth and adoption. If some people dont believe that lots of new people will become interested in this venture, I wonder why are they here here in the forums at all?? Altruistic souls warning the rest of us?

Sometimes I think these people are trying to influence the markets to buy cheap. Sorry Macho.  

Great charts, THANKS

2 words:

Paycheck Friday

Look at these charts:


Alexa siterank, Bitcoin.org shows exponential growth:


Alexa siterank, Mtgox.com, also exponential: (+773% over past 3 months)



Google trends, for bitcoin:



Compare those with BTC price charts, to me they look pretty similar, frightening fast growth, but not unorganic.

It seems to me that with 7k new a day, would be so easy to crash.  I can't figure out how in the world it jumped so fast from $1 other than someone pumped a huge amount of USD into it to drive it up artificially. That kind of spike can't be organic.

It jumped up again dancing in the middle between $19 and $20 ... but sell@20 is consistently rising while buy@19 is consistently declining ... so the trend is clear and quite understandable - as you've said $140,000 new injected money a day is clearly unsustainable by the current bitcoin economy. So it all depends on what the hoarders do ... if only few decide to cash out the panic is on.

I'll trust you on the figures. So 7k BC at ~$20 are entering the market each day. Soo forgive my poor grasp of economics, we are currently 'creating' $140,000 a day.
Does anybody genuinely believe that this amount of money (and more) is being traded each day to actually buy goods and services? I'm guessing not, so most of this is being sat on as we greedily watch the market rise (rising based on just a tiny tiny fraction being actually actively traded and bought by us speculating or the outsiders buying with cash).

Actually best figures to know would the deposits/withdrawals from MtGox per user (the net dollar/BC ratio) - I suddenly see why that site is more valuable than the 0.65% commission they take.

We spend a lot of time debating here whether this is a bubble, or the start of a new financial world order - but quick look at MtGox should clear it up.
Just wondering if it's possibly to work out the daily net throughput of BC to dollars - if it's < $140,000 then BC are being hoarded and we're going to experience the bubble on the way up and all need to time our exit before it breaks and the market gets flooded.

My guestimate is that it'll we'll slide up to maybe $25 (there's 3000 BC currently sitting there on sell - and that'll halt the market long enough for the doubts to kick it) then it'll slam back down.

What I'm undecided on is whether I should just cash in now (or somewhere between here and $25) or do that and then re-buy as it bottoms out (my guess is on 12-13 this time).

Sorry to break it to you, but it hasn't gone under 19, at least not on MtGox

I'd say a fair amount of traders/users/miners of bitcoins use this forum too btw.

I'm selling BTC hurp durp.
I make more money selling at $20 than at $19.

Fear propaganda?

Since I posted that comment, price has gone under $19 and I doubt it has anything to do with my "propaganda" lol, most folks do not even read these forums. Just watch, we'll see there is always that possibility that some big investor will step in but short of that, it's going down like a rock That's just my wild guess or maybe not so wild ... feel free to take it as an insane ramblings of a guy on an internet forum which you should!

W/e, panic is a great way to make fast cash. Just discover some more tactful means of delivering your fear propaganda

No, it IS going down ... it's just a matter of buyers realizing that fact and that it isn't going any higher (and that around 7000 new BTCs enter the market every day) which is going to happen soon and then ... PANIC TIME! The only question is, how low will it go before it stabilizes ...

...its been bouncing between 19.1-19.9 for days now. Nice try.

good luck to all in your bitcoin purchases

Yeah, feel free to do that ... everybody has his own way to burn money

But seriously, the only thing you would accomplish by buying that much bitcoins is lose shitload of money ... that's the reason nobody is doing it as you may have noticed unless you have several hundred thousand and the guts to do  pump&dump scheme ...

I could start an order right now for $20 and bring the price back up.

When I made the OP, the price of the bitcoin was 19.80 or so. The current price is now 19.20. My predictions were accurate, suffice to say.

I'm also theorizing that we're still in a "bubble" and within 2 weeks the price of bitcoins will be worth about $5 each. But for now, I say play the market!

He does have one valid point though in the 'others' section: Prices tend to historically go crazy during weekends.

Probably because depositing and withdrawing is made harder, or some other inexplicable reason.

Any "system" that works on the stock market would not work on BTC pricing.  One is tempered by large numbers and instant liquidity, the other is subject to huge fluctuations in price due to very small fluctuations in buying/selling and is also effected by various delays due to lack of liquidity and difficulty in funding trades.   

And why would you want to share these amazing findings... Altruism? Ha!

Hello! I've been tracking the history of bitcoin prices looking for trends. Using some mathematically precise algorithms typically used to predict stock market prices (i am a very successful stock trader) I've found several trends among the bitcoin market. One I've noticed is after 5 PM on wednesdays the price tends to drop dramatically, only to return within a day. This is strange and inexplicable, but most of the trends are!

Others:

The price tends to dip heavily on the weekends.
Tuesdays and Fridays the prices tend to be the highest.
Late Wednesday/Early Thursday the prices tend to be the lowest.

so basically SELL SELL SELL the bitcoins still have plenty of stabilizing to do but we can all profit if we play this smart, friends