It's about time someone made a longbets prediction, but I don't think the time period is long enough for it to be fair.
The problem is, gold and silver are in bubbles and will probably crash in the next few years, the stock market is crashing now and (unless there's hyperinflation) the USD doesn't change that much over a period of a year and a half. In 2013 the mining reward will halve, and we don't know how that will influence BTC. A year and a half from now, governments probably won't have had a chance to attempt to attack BTC yet (remember, bureaucracy).
A period of 10 years would be better in my opinion, because it won't be as much influenced by short-term events and will show the long-term trends better. Also, it will give governments ample time to try to attack, so that we can see exactly how well BTC will weather the attack.
Topic: “Bitcoins will outperform the US Dollar, Gold, Silver, and the stock market by o (Read 621 times)
August 21, 2011, 07:19:58 PM
August 21, 2011, 06:56:32 PM
Hopefully bitcoins blossom into something great.
The only thing that has me nervous is how easy it is to create a fork block chain.
If this was adopted by a government (meaning the currency would be 'legal' tender) does anyone really think they would just hop onto the existing block chain? I imagine it happening as a fork. Ie. The US forks the bitcoin project into USDcoins. Premines a chunk to keep a 'reserve'. Other countries follow suit (YenCoin, eurocoin, audcoin yadda yadda) and eventually the currency becomes as perverted as what we have now.
Note: I'm a glass is half empty type of guy =\
The only thing that has me nervous is how easy it is to create a fork block chain.
If this was adopted by a government (meaning the currency would be 'legal' tender) does anyone really think they would just hop onto the existing block chain? I imagine it happening as a fork. Ie. The US forks the bitcoin project into USDcoins. Premines a chunk to keep a 'reserve'. Other countries follow suit (YenCoin, eurocoin, audcoin yadda yadda) and eventually the currency becomes as perverted as what we have now.
Note: I'm a glass is half empty type of guy =\
August 21, 2011, 06:02:36 PM
I like the bit about Bitcoin ending all wars. Perhaps a little pie in the sky.
I will continue to stick it to the man by mining bitcoins!
Also I can't wait for 1BTC to be worth 1000 USD.
I will continue to stick it to the man by mining bitcoins!
Also I can't wait for 1BTC to be worth 1000 USD.
August 21, 2011, 05:25:03 PM
lol i totally agree although I would like to point out one of the main reasons the bitcoin will outperform the usd and the stock market is because the US GDP is >2% hahahhahahaha. man i remember learning about that in high school... we used to have a good gdp. So funny. So many troll cats.... well ill have my btc saved up. Toodles!
August 21, 2011, 03:00:20 PM
http://longbets.org/611/
"Bitcoins are the world's first peer to peer, distributed electronic currency. This means that they can be sent directly from person to person over the internet, without needing anyone's help or permission. They are free to send, receive, or to store, and they can be as public or anonymous as you want them to be...."
"Bitcoins are the world's first peer to peer, distributed electronic currency. This means that they can be sent directly from person to person over the internet, without needing anyone's help or permission. They are free to send, receive, or to store, and they can be as public or anonymous as you want them to be...."
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