Topic: bitcommon - BTC/USD - Technical Analysis. (Read 5549 times)

12/20/13 BAR/Session - Starting 12/19/13 18:00 CST through 12/20/13 18:00 CST

12/18/13 was meant to start a break out move, except that it ended up from a lower low below the earlier Cycle low of 12/6 which held so far.

For the week starting 12/16/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 1700 before the month is out (reducing from 2440). The breakout move should start this week no later than 12/18/13

For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/20/13 session
STOPS & TARGETS to be evaluated on print of HOURLY CLOSES below/above these S/R (Support/Resistance) Pivots
S=690/665.51 (a daily close below 464 may mean the BTC story is over for a while). The actual print on 12/18/13 was 455 and the close was at 541
R=762.23/847/883/936.08

Likely 12/20 range - 690 - 883 and polarity of day should be low to high. Also the key resistance to overcome to negate the downside pressure is 936.08.

Cycles wise, BTC is likely to move higher into 12/21/13 3am CST. Let us see how 12/20 BAR plays out.

If the "Likely range" is breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up.
If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

Hello Thanks :-)

I am thick skinned and have been in this profession for decades. I am not intimidated at all and won't be. Just got busy nothing else.

One challenge I do have is that I don't have all hourly data for BTC/USD since inception - and the model development can take some time to gain accuracy with the limited historical data I have on HOURLIES. I do have the DAILIES data and the model but that doesn't tell me much on intraday behavior for which I need to code based on maximum possible hourlies data to extract various cycles. I am getting close and have been publishing whatever the model says as is and objectively. Folks have a choice to take it or leave it or produce something better.

With that said, real quick the Cycles are roughly up into 12/21/13 3-4 am CST. Potential target by then? 1103? Recall 1191 SELL hold was there so we continued lower and it hit the MOB (make or break) number that I had listed at 464 and closed above it. Alternate, scenario would be 754 keeps holding into the above time pivot, in which case we can head back lower (less preferred alternate). Hopefully, I will have my website ready in January 2013 and I can graphically show what the near term patterns may be.

I did make some progress on catching the nerves of underlying Cycles for BTC/USD in the past couple of days and hopefully the accuracy for intraday trading may go up from here. We will see if I get the next pivot on 12/21/13 3-4am CST right or PRICE hit. For those who understand trading - it is in essence alternation between PRICE & TIME (SPACE/TIME continuum).

I won't go away but at times life gets super busy that is all.

bitcommon - don't get trolled by these trolls, just keep doing what you do if you believe in it.

Yep...just stop.

You are damaging your reputation with this chaff.

12/18/13 BAR/Session - Starting 12/17/13 18:00 CST through 12/18/13 18:00 CST

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for the current BAR/Session so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/16/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out. The breakout move should start this week no later than 12/18/13

For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/17/13 session
HOURLY CLOSES
S=678.48/666/605.58 (below 464 BTC story may be over for a while)
R=762.23/847/891/936.08

Likely 12/17 range - 678.47 - 781.55 and polarity of day should be low to high, with 12-11am CST key turn

If the "Likely range" is breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up.
If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

12/17/13 BAR/Session - Starting 12/16/13 18:00 CST through 12/17/13 18:00 CST

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for the current BAR/Session so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/16/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out. The breakout move should start this week no later than 12/18/13

For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/17/13 session
HOURLY CLOSES
S=720/666/517/464 (below 464 BTC story may be over for a while)
R=810/847/936.08

Likely 12/17 range - 666 - 810 and polarity of day should be low to high, with 10-11pm CST key turn, then 8-9am CST key turn

If the "Likely range" is breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up. If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

Your predictions have been way too high each time.

12/16/13 BAR/Session - Starting 12/15/13 18:00 CST through 12/16/13 18:00 CST

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for the current BAR/Session so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/16/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out. The breakout move should start this week no later than 12/18/13

For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/16/13 session
HOURLY CLOSES
S=891.14/847/760
R=936.08/990.67/1030.96/1129.53/1150.33/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/16 range - (891.14) - (990.67-1013) and polarity of day should be mixed with a rise into 1am CST, then decline into 8am CST then higher into close. Below 847, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break 760 on HOURLY CLOSES, and above 1013 - a move towards 1171 could build up this week.

If the "Likely range" is breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up. If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

Yes, as in the post

Trend is up and . STOPS in the post as well.

the trendlines are signaling a convergence and a possible upswing, if you ignore the quick sell off on the China news. especially on the 4h chart. are you seeing this with your analysis?

12/15/13 BAR/Session - Starting 12/14/13 18:00 CST through 12/15/13 18:00 CST

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for the current BAR/Session so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out. The breakout move should start this week no later than 12/18/13

For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/15/13 session
HOURLY CLOSES
S=889/832/801.96
R=936.08/990/1030.96/1129.53/1150.33/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/15 range - (832) - (959-1010) and polarity of day should be L to H. Below 832, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break 760 on HOURLY CLOSES, and above 1010 - a move towards 1171 could build up next week.

If the "Likely range" is breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up. If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/14 BAR so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/14 session
S=889/841/801.96
R=959.9/1035/1085/1119/1150.33/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/14 range - (889) - (1035-1085) and give back into close possible at 6pm CST. Below 841, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break 810.96 on HOURLY CLOSES, and above 1035 - a move towards 1171 could build up next week. As always, if the likely range numbers are breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up. If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/13 BAR so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/13 session
S=889/841/801.96
R=959.9/1068/1119/1150.33/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/13 range - (889) - (1068). Below 801.96, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break 760 on HOURLY CLOSES, and above 1068 - a move towards 1171 could build up this week. As always, if the likely range numbers are breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up. If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

I think the gentleman was alluding to this statement in my objective analysis report

Lowest forecasted Hourly CLOSE for 12/12 BAR was 860 and actual is 870.01. Upper target is a miss and 801.96 still holds.

Maybe he could, but I'm not too sure myself, but I'm sure there is something going on here.

Could you be any more vague?

There is something really wrong going on here. And now.

I couldn't get on to the site all evening! But here we go for 12/12 session

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/12 BAR so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/12 session
S=860/841/801.96
R=1006/1068/1119/1171/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/12 range - (860) - (1068). Below 801.96, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break them, and above 1068 - a move towards 1171 could build up this week. As always, if the likely range numbers are breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up.

Sell hold is where the last SELL occurred in BTC/USD that caused the down leg to 576.

S=Support
R=Resistance

HTH

Forgive me if I am dumb, but what does Sell hold @ 1191 mean?  Is that the line for sell/hold?

Also, what does S and R stand for?

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/11 BAR so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/11 session
S=1028.41/956/841/801.96
R=1126.87/1171/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/11 range - (1028.41) - (1171-1221). Below 801.96, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break them.

Great thread. Thank you!

(As an aside, for any traders in here. Looking at the bitcoinwisdom.com chart, there's a yellow arrow showing the current price, and a moving gray arrow that is vertically in line, but fluctuates to something different, it seems. What does the gray arrow mean? Thanks!)

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/10 BAR so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading it short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/10 session
S=841/801.96/760
R=1028.41/1126.87/1171/1191 (strong R)

Likely 12/10 range - (841-889) - (1072-1126). Below 760, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break them

My gut agrees with you and I look forward to what the model has to say. Good luck with it!
I'll try to keep an eye out for replies to you.

Hello-
I had this in the original post above


And yes, 900+ is where this thing is trying to base this week and this number will become momentous historically as that was the peak of Senate Hearing in US.

For this week, take it with a grain of salt as I am still watching and developing the model and the main issue with BTC is rapid expansion and contraction of Cycles - almost like a teenager's height - nothing gained for a bit and then suddenly you wake up 2 inches taller :-) No shrinkage though for teenagers but hopefully you get the point:-) So I am still adding code. Having said, that it is educational TA(technical analysis), and I don't mind sticking my neck out and being wrong -

Therefore, model says with current rhythm this week, we could see 1311 by late Wed/early Thu and then giveback.

Also, if someone can help me to watch this thread as I am not getting notifications if someone replies even though I checked "watch" below. Thanks!

Child is the father of man!

That is the point of Cycles analysis, extracting the pulse of the beast from historical data.

This new climb seems to be fueled by jet fuel, how high do you see it going?

For the month of Dec, once it passes 1k do you see it dipping below 900?

Can you really accurately compare older bitcoin cycles with current? Its a different animal now.

Thanks folks!

Yes, I have 14 years of trading system development experience - this model is new and it takes 1-3 years to fine tune models and I don't think it will be different this time either. I just started trading BTC/USD in the last 2 months - so a lot of stuff is a work in progress. Just built the Cycles model that will assist in timing going forward but I wouldn't say it is fully tested. However, I am encouraged by the 12/6 low hit.

If I post daily, I will be wrong at times and then right at times. Trader's edge is cutting losses short when wrong with risk management - it won't be any different with this financial instrument.

Here to stay with BTC's posterity :-)

- Ro

Nice Analysis!
Hope you keep them coming.

Thanks, bitcommon!

You started a bit wrong but came around with the latter analysis. Hope you continue your TA's here for a long time!

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/9 BAR so keep those in mind always.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/9 session
S=767/745
R=934.46/1028.41/1126.87-1145 (strong R). The last number is likely high for the week and should cause an immediate turn back

Likely 12/9 range - 745-945. Below 745 another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break them

Up trend intact against 825 (DAILY CLOSE basis STOP) - survived this one today on 12/6 BAR that closed at 845

12/4 CLOSE > 1238 relieved the DAILY & WEEKLY waves SELL signal generated on 12/1/13 - this will eventually pull the market up when the selling abates likely today that is 12/6/13 calendar day.

For 12/7 BAR
S=665.51/516.41 (666 devil's number may cease the crash and burn on 6+6,6 or 12/6 = 666 on 6+6,6)
R=825.10/959.49/1118.89

Likely 12/7 BAR  range - 665.51-1118.89, print of 960 confirms bottom is in

BTC/USD Cycle Studies -
That is from yesterday and the initial hit for 12/6 bar was also precisely at 800. Chances are we are a bottom today, below 516.41 things get really dicey as it can open trap door to 139.39 - so hopefully that scenario doesn't open up.

Once BTC/USD stabilizes and I see cycles kick in and price confirm the bottom, I will publish the December 2013 target for upside.

> 1423.15 could see BTC go into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013

Were in waring season. So look for the downtrend to sideways. At the end of Dec right before the new year look for the price to start to pick up, like the last week of Dec. Then a nice big pop after the 1st! And a nice rise during earnings season. 2014 and the first half of 2015 are the last of the bull run for the stock market so look for those nice pushes each of the 4 earnings seasons!

Going forward all posts will be made under this thread as recommended by one of the moderators. Also, posting the Disclaimer once as part of this thread and it will apply to this thread's life.


SELL hold @ 1191 erased and now BTC is back to trending higher. Up trend intact against 825 (DAILY CLOSE basis STOP)
12/4 CLOSE > 1238 relieved the DAILY & WEEKLY waves SELL signal generated on 12/1/13
+ve development for up trend. This remains true even with today's sell-off once S-1185.75 was broken.

For 12/5 session
S=1057.10/1008.89/962
R=1156.89/1208.47/1232.00

Likely 12/6 range - 1008.89-1232. Below 1008.89 another quick wash out can occur to 800 intraday but DAILY CLOSES should remain above 1000

BTC/USD Cycle Studies - 12/6/13 is an important CIT and could mark the low from where up trend resumes.

> 1423.15 could see BTC go into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013

___________________
Mtgox BTC/USD - Technical Analysis
S=Support
R=Resistance

https://twitter.com/bitcommon



Disclaimer
The statements, opinions and analyses presented in these posts by bitcommon user handle ("I", "We", "Us") are provided as general information and for educational purposes. Opinions, estimates and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in these posts is intended to be, not shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Neither bitcommon nor its author "Ro", Editor shall be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Copyright 2011.

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