but to me this Jackpot doesnt look +ev to me and MP shouldnt accept it imo
That doesn't make sense, as if it isn't +EV for the player, MP will accept it (unless the win is too high vs the edge). It is +EV for the investor, as the chance is so low, it has a very low expected value, and simply lowers the edge of the bet.
I meant it is not +ev for the investors but maybe I am wrong cause I am not familiar with the sweeper game but JRoc confirmed that each click on a tile is an independent bet
let me do the math (my math) and you tell me please what I missed here and hopefully I can learn something out of this
Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP 1 in 750 511 bets in average and
JP payout is wager x 10 000
lets do a simple example and lets take a wager of 100 bits. I am the player and wager 750 511 times 100 bits
equals 75 051 100
HE of 0.95% = leaves 712 985 bits for MP/Investors and app owner (they split 50/50)
I will hit in average 1 in 750511 bets the JP and get 10 000 x 100 bits = 1 000 000 bits
but my average loss according to HE of 0.95% is 712 985 bits
app owner and MP/Investors split 712 985 bits = each side gets 356 492 bits
but MP/Investors pay a JP of 1 000 000 bits and they only earned 356 492 bits
what did I miss here cause as soon MP/Investors are paying the JP for me this is not +ev and should not be accepted by MP/Investors
thx for reading and trying to help me to find my wrong thinking
edit
Probability 0.00013504177331924438% translates to a chance to hit the JP 1 in 750 511 bets in average it should be 740 511 sorry for the typo