Topic: black swan (Read 941 times)
nothing made by man is infallible, but the chances of anything going awry is small. so could there be a black swan event? yes. but probably not!
If there was a flaw, it would be fixed and rolled back. Early on there was a wraparound bug that allowed creation of a billion bitcoins by a transaction. It was fixed. It would take not just a clever bug finder, but also the consent of everyone in the Bitcoin community.
Sounds like you know your stuff. What you are saying makes sense to me, but I'm not a tech expert, not by a long shot. Could you elaborate and simplify a bit please?
If there was a flaw, it would be fixed and rolled back. Early on there was a wraparound bug that allowed creation of a billion bitcoins by a transaction. It was fixed. It would take not just a clever bug finder, but also the consent of everyone in the Bitcoin community.
Black swan theory
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem," the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem," the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences
God I loved that movie... for educational purposes of course! 
Tweak the BTC machine? What are you saying exactly?
How certain are we that Satoshi's original BTC creation algorithm is impregnable?
If Kasparov can beat Deep Blue 4-2, why can't some boy genius out there crank the BTC code into high gear just for the heck of it?
i thought this thread is supposed to be about the black swan
Tweak the BTC machine? What are you saying exactly?
What do you mean exactly? It is possible?
Yes.
And then?
Yes.
And then?
Is there a 16 year old out there, wired on 5-hour energy, on day 3 of his own personal hackathon...
...who could tweak the BTC machine, get it to churn out 1 million/minute, and effectively wipe out everybody?
...who could tweak the BTC machine, get it to churn out 1 million/minute, and effectively wipe out everybody?
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