Black Swan Event | Bitcointalksearch.org

Inedible

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 500

What doesn't kill you only makes you sicker!

Quote from: manselr on October 03, 2014, 04:27:37 PM

Quote from: Sakarias-Corporation on October 03, 2014, 03:03:33 PM

better they sell now then for those coins to be lost. we can't have tens of thousands coins traped somewhere.
but yeah, we'll prob se a small price dive. again.

Wouldn't lost forever coins make the price go higher? (assuming the demand doesn't fall tho).
Simple logic = Shorter supply + big demand = higher price. R... right guys?

Yes. Yes it would.

Kuriso

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Found on the BFL forum under "Put a fork in it! BFL Is toast"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jYNMKdv36w

manselr

legendary

Activity: 868

Merit: 1006

Quote from: Sakarias-Corporation on October 03, 2014, 03:03:33 PM

better they sell now then for those coins to be lost. we can't have tens of thousands coins traped somewhere.
but yeah, we'll prob se a small price dive. again.

Wouldn't lost forever coins make the price go higher? (assuming the demand doesn't fall tho).
Simple logic = Shorter supply + big demand = higher price. R... right guys?

Sakarias-Corporation

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Call me Alice. just Alice.

better they sell now then for those coins to be lost. we can't have tens of thousands coins traped somewhere.
but yeah, we'll prob se a small price dive. again.

Chopperman

member

Activity: 68

Merit: 10

Quote from: Chalkbot on October 03, 2014, 02:53:17 PM

Quote from: Chopperman on October 03, 2014, 02:47:49 PM

That's just the EMC cold wallet.

Estimates for BFL total wallets are 10,000 to 50,000 BTC.

Up until the judge ordered this, no one was expecting a forced sell event of any kind. That it's going to be done orderly has no meaning. Everyone will want to get their sell orders in first.

What are these estimates based upon? I understand BFL has always converted BTC from product sales to dollars. Do estimates assume differently, or do estimates assume that they mined 10-50k bitcoins and held them?

Traced BFL related blockchain payments, a lot of speculation about this in the hardware thread. It's way more than just the EMC cold wallet. The "$1M pre-order" BTC hasn't even moved since that press release.

hyphymikey

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Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Chalkbot on October 03, 2014, 02:53:17 PM

Quote from: Chopperman on October 03, 2014, 02:47:49 PM

That's just the EMC cold wallet.

Estimates for BFL total wallets are 10,000 to 50,000 BTC.

Up until the judge ordered this, no one was expecting a forced sell event of any kind. That it's going to be done orderly has no meaning. Everyone will want to get their sell orders in first.

What are these estimates based upon? I understand BFL has always converted BTC from product sales to dollars. Do estimates assume differently, or do estimates assume that they mined 10-50k bitcoins and held them?

He just made that up.

Like they said in court it's around 896 coins.

Either way, they will be sold at auction, not on the exchanges.

Chalkbot

legendary

Activity: 896

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Chopperman on October 03, 2014, 02:47:49 PM

That's just the EMC cold wallet.

Estimates for BFL total wallets are 10,000 to 50,000 BTC.

Up until the judge ordered this, no one was expecting a forced sell event of any kind. That it's going to be done orderly has no meaning. Everyone will want to get their sell orders in first.

What are these estimates based upon? I understand BFL has always converted BTC from product sales to dollars. Do estimates assume differently, or do estimates assume that they mined 10-50k bitcoins and held them?

Rat_Poison

newbie

Activity: 14

Merit: 0

Quote from: Chopperman on October 03, 2014, 02:47:49 PM

That's just the EMC cold wallet.

Estimates for BFL total wallets are 10,000 to 50,000 BTC.

Up until the judge ordered this, no one was expecting a forced sell event of any kind. That it's going to be done orderly has no meaning. Everyone will want to get their sell orders in first.

I think you would need to be a lunatic to be holding bitcoin in this current environment. Bad news for the bulls...

Chopperman

member

Activity: 68

Merit: 10

That's just the EMC cold wallet.

Estimates for BFL total wallets are 10,000 to 50,000 BTC.

Up until the judge ordered this, no one was expecting a forced sell event of any kind. That it's going to be done orderly has no meaning. Everyone will want to get their sell orders in first.

tbcoin

legendary

Activity: 1022

Merit: 1000

Nothing big

FTC vs Josh

Hyena

legendary

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This is actually good. They are forced to sell the coins for low prices Cheesy

Raystonn

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Since when is "systematic and reasoned basis" a black swan event?

I am happy they will get crap prices for the coins though.

DieJohnny

legendary

Activity: 1639

Merit: 1006

If nobody knows he size of the holding than how can it be a black swan, just as likely a black head.

Chopperman

member

Activity: 68

Merit: 10

Judge in FTC versus BFL case orders all of their bitcoin to be converted to USD.
This is a black swan event - nobody saw it coming.
Nobody other than BFL knows how much BTC this is going to be, but it's all coming onto the market.
Nowhere to go but down.

http://ia902308.us.archive.org/32/items/gov.uscourts.mowd.117531/gov.uscourts.mowd.117531.54.0.pdf

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All parties shall cooperate in transferring Receivership Defendant’s bitcoins to a Court controlled bitcoin wallet,

Conversion of Receivership Defendant’s substantial bitcoin holdings to cash on a systematic and reasoned basis;

Topic: Black Swan Event (Read 1523 times)