Bookmaker's predictive mistakes. | Bitcointalksearch.org

AmoreJaz

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

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1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

Below are just my brief thoughts on the above questions -
1- Hard to get the stats, but the sure answer is - they can be wrong also with their predictions, they are not perfect so to speak
2- Not considering some hidden injuries or situations of the athletes involved or the strategies of the team itself, so giving wrong odds
3- Because that's where the bookie is also earning good money
4- Not really, if you live and breath the sports, you can also spot the mistakes at once
5- Odds - they have their algorithm, but how good they are is the question? What are the criteria considered?
6- Because they don't have the crystal ball, remember even if it is done by AI, still they are blinded with some factors significant in the game
7- For sure, they are also checking the odds of their competitors and alter it, if they need to change it.

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Quote from: shasan on September 16, 2024, 12:41:19 PM

Quote from: Findingnemo on August 14, 2024, 03:52:56 AM

Nope, the opposite of it.

Casino can't bend the rules as whatever they want, I mean they could but it might cost their business entirely so they can't just void any bet because someone won big, they can only void if there's an actual glitch or error from the bookmakers but those are rare.

Now crypto casino industry is filled with competition like never before so they don't even have a tiny room to void bets intentionally.

If the error is of the bookmakers and if the void the game then the winner of the game would be a loser. In this case, do you think it is fair for the bookmaker to void the bet. I do not thin it is fair and also many a time the winning might be after several lose and in this situation if the bet void then it would be a crucial for the person who won but void the bet.

Exactly. In these situations the player often gets the bad end of the stick since the TOS protect the house.
But if you play bad odds that were given by mistake at a way too low rate they might not void the bet because their error actually benefits them. As a player there is nothing you can do since you accepted the TOS when registering and playing on the site. You can only hope that bookies handles cases like this with fairness. Void if they have the benefit and void if they hand the disadvantage.

shasan

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Quote from: Findingnemo on August 14, 2024, 03:52:56 AM

Nope, the opposite of it.

Casino can't bend the rules as whatever they want, I mean they could but it might cost their business entirely so they can't just void any bet because someone won big, they can only void if there's an actual glitch or error from the bookmakers but those are rare.

Now crypto casino industry is filled with competition like never before so they don't even have a tiny room to void bets intentionally.

If the error is of the bookmakers and if the void the game then the winner of the game would be a loser. In this case, do you think it is fair for the bookmaker to void the bet. I do not thin it is fair and also many a time the winning might be after several lose and in this situation if the bet void then it would be a crucial for the person who won but void the bet.

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Quote from: Findingnemo on August 14, 2024, 03:52:56 AM

Quote from: betswift on August 12, 2024, 01:43:36 AM

The house has the means to shape the situation how they see fit. Thanks for the little insights!

Nope, the opposite of it.

Casino can't bend the rules as whatever they want, I mean they could but it might cost their business entirely so they can't just void any bet because someone won big, they can only void if there's an actual glitch or error from the bookmakers but those are rare.

Now crypto casino industry is filled with competition like never before so they don't even have a tiny room to void bets intentionally.

Yep, should have added an addition of TOS being the rules that can be bent or referred to, but of course, as it was said, it should be justifiable in the eyes of the crowd, because otherwise, the reputation of the platform would sink. Thanks for the addition!

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Quote from: betswift on August 12, 2024, 01:43:36 AM

The house has the means to shape the situation how they see fit. Thanks for the little insights!

Nope, the opposite of it.

Casino can't bend the rules as whatever they want, I mean they could but it might cost their business entirely so they can't just void any bet because someone won big, they can only void if there's an actual glitch or error from the bookmakers but those are rare.

Now crypto casino industry is filled with competition like never before so they don't even have a tiny room to void bets intentionally.

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Quote from: stadus on August 12, 2024, 02:54:16 AM

Quote from: betswift on August 12, 2024, 01:43:36 AM

The house has the means to shape the situation how they see fit. Thanks for the little insights!

But it should be justifiable. I mean, they can't make rules that don't meet the standards. Most sportsbooks are regulated, so they have rules to follow when grading bets, whether it's a win, loss, or void. I think there's already a thread here where someone complained about why their bet was voided, but when other members replied and explained the standard rules, the person was able to understand it. So my point is, bookies won't make a mistake they can't revert or correct, because on their part, that would be a big financial loss or a hit to their reputation if they couldn't justify their actions.

Yeah, I agree, that's a good addition Grin

The reputation of a platform is very important, and doing something that you described would plummet it in case it wasn't regulated/was done not through the rules implied.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 30, 2024, 08:47:23 PM

The funny paradox here is that the bookmaker may make a mistake by calculating the odds incorrectly, or he may even give the other side an advantage in the odds. But it is not at all necessary that the player will be able to take advantage of this opportunity. The fact is that a player can lose even due to the bookmaker’s mistakes. The opposite is also true: a bookmaker can lose even if he calculates the odds completely correctly. For the degree of correct calculation is never absolute and any game leaves the possibility of a random event.

I think it natural thing, but it still very rare because the bookie will only assess and provide opportunities based on the performance and strength of the team in having an advantage over the other opposing team.
It just that there are indeed several things that are based on reality or can be concluded if the bookie calculates the chances well but in match there is an unexpected surprise that makes the team with bigger odds win and gives the gambler bigger chance to win.
Incidents like this are very common although they can't be found every time, after all it not mistake but because of surprise that is really beyond anyone expectations including the bookie.
Additionally changes to the odds offered can occur after the match has started, and bookmakers also have the advantage of closing bets to minimise large wins for their customers.

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Quote from: Fortify on August 12, 2024, 02:12:11 PM

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

So, let me ask you more detailed questions to better discuss this topic.
How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

You have to ask yourself, how do bookmakers survive for so long and pay off all the staff / facilities behind the scenes, if they aren't skimming a decent profit from betting activity. The answer to that should tell you that they are right a lot more often than the players are. It would actually be a good documenting exercise to keep track of various bets and see where they made mistakes, however you can bet that they are analyzing this information too in order to improve. In my very narrow view, I think they tend to have the toughest time and open up the most mistakes when they are taking in game bets - where someone watching the sport might form an opinion of the play style that could give them an advantage over the bets being offered, if you can read it right and find value.

Yep it's right that they are able to retain their jobs and pay their employees also indicates that they are better at predicting outcomes and managing risk than the average bookmaker. I know only a little but I think it is through very careful of working on extensive data analysis backed by expert expertise that display and adjustment of odds, based on betting systems, happens and to such. This gives them a huge advantage over casual publishers who might not have access to standard content or even search tools. On the other hand, for me is that bookmakers are at work nonstop, fine-tuning their systems for handling these in-game bets, making things harder for even savvy punters to have profitable moments.

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For most of those such simple questions, even a Google search would be able to tell you

Quote

How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?

More often than you think, but still in the under-relevant %, that said, when there are thousands of bets a day they do happen.

Quote

2. What is his most common mistake?

Obviously wrong odds, but that doesn't happen in simple bets on the winner, most of them are spotted in handicaps.

Quote

3. Why do high rates work?

It's not about "working" most of them are just about luck, and some are either the result of balancing or a bookie who wants to take advantage of a popular event.

Quote

4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?

Not always but some are, bots that check arbitrage opportunities have fixed some of the issues for bookies and they trigger alarms when something is wrong and can be exploited.

The rest are just a repetition of the previous questions, it's simple, mistakes are made and algorithms are not perfect, but in the end due to legislation in most states, even if they do make mistakes they can still void your bet, so risks for them are minimal because of mistakes, luck is a bigger danger.

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Personally, I've never seen a bookmaker make a big mistake. Let's say I bet on MMA a lot and one player is usually a clear favourite. In most cases this will be the fighter defending a belt, or a fighter with much better score. How are you going to know if they miscalculated? Let's imagine the champion with very high odds loses. Do you think the bookie will not make money from it? For them to look stupid they'd have to lower payment for the contender and actually give low odds to the champ and then witness that champ-underdog destroy his opponent Cheesy

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

So, let me ask you more detailed questions to better discuss this topic.
How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

You have to ask yourself, how do bookmakers survive for so long and pay off all the staff / facilities behind the scenes, if they aren't skimming a decent profit from betting activity. The answer to that should tell you that they are right a lot more often than the players are. It would actually be a good documenting exercise to keep track of various bets and see where they made mistakes, however you can bet that they are analyzing this information too in order to improve. In my very narrow view, I think they tend to have the toughest time and open up the most mistakes when they are taking in game bets - where someone watching the sport might form an opinion of the play style that could give them an advantage over the bets being offered, if you can read it right and find value.

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Quote from: Baofeng on June 27, 2024, 06:50:46 AM

I don't think that bookmakers makes this predictive mistakes. Remember that they all get their odds on Las Vegas and those who make it, their job is not to predict who is going to win, but to balance the bet the way they see it.

And so if it happens that there is a upset let's say, then it's not their fault or mistakes. It's that how they find the odds and it's up to us players on who we are going to pick based on the odds that is being presented to us. So it might come from all the records they have, algorithms, perhaps by now they are using AI as well. So it will not be a mistakes, it just shows that we really don't know what the outcome will be in a sport betting as sometime a underdog can defy the odds being set by the odd makers.

The way I see these individuals is the same way I look at the waiver wire in fantasy football. Use their guidance as a guideline to run by but always make tailored adjustments based on what you see fit. Often times my gut instincts have been right over what an analyst said.

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My interest has been drawn to what book makers over estimate and what they aswell underwater, this experience is literally general as not only book makers but even gamblers at some point do under estimate certain teams only to get surprised by their performance by the end of the games.

There are times casinos will allot huge odds to a team because they perceived their weaknesses only to get shocked by the results they see at the end of a match, the only advantage the Casinos do get often is in the fact that most gamblers do follow the odds allotted by the casinos and that projects their fears so they most likely don't pick this high odds with the mind that it may not come through and they are going to loose their money but for an experienced gambler who has his personal records and statistics may likely still make such pick because they believe but is about to repeat so they record only a few taking actual advantage of such huge odds.

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Quote from: DaNNy001 on August 12, 2024, 01:02:24 AM

That's why we have what is called arbitrage betting, this is the system of using the miscalculations and mistakes of bookmakers to your advantage, but this is something that is very hard to get because these bookmakers take out their time to arrange the odds to their favor
They are also gamblers... bookmakers common mistake from my experience in most cases is not cross checking the odds of other platforms of some particular matches which might give gamblers an advantage to use the arbitrage system

As for betting arbitrage, these are mistakes that are easy to fix on the one hand, and on the other hand, bookmakers easily notice arbitrage. I watched a lot of interviews with bookmaker employees who were placing bets live. According to them, the bookmaker is guided by other bookmakers. Thus, it is somewhat reminiscent of a herd instinct. If your odds for a game are very different from the odds of another bookmaker, this means that a large number of people will want to participate in safe betting arbitrage. But the bookmaker itself easily notices this by the influx of players for one match. However, I wrote about another type of error, namely, a poor forecast of an event.

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Quote from: betswift on August 12, 2024, 01:43:36 AM

Quote from: stadus on August 12, 2024, 01:40:39 AM

Quote from: Findingnemo on June 27, 2024, 09:03:15 AM

If I am not wrong if there is any mistake find from the bookmakers then all the bets will be voided and the funds better will be refund so the whole concept of capitalizing mistake is not possible at all, the only place where we can capitalize is to make use of the difference in the odds and that's most common but I mentioned about that earlier is the difference amount will be insignificant so better not to focus too much on it.

That’s the kind of advantage they have; they can charge your account for a mistake if it’s already settled or void it if it’s not yet settled. It’s written in the TOS. whether it’s a bug or something else that puts the sportsbook at a disadvantage. In cases like wrong point spreads and odds, those can easily be voided. Sportsbooks have oddsmakers who provide for many sportsbooks, so it can be justified easily without making gamblers think they were scammed or cheated.

The house has the means to shape the situation how they see fit. Thanks for the little insights!

But it should be justifiable. I mean, they can't make rules that don't meet the standards. Most sportsbooks are regulated, so they have rules to follow when grading bets, whether it's a win, loss, or void. I think there's already a thread here where someone complained about why their bet was voided, but when other members replied and explained the standard rules, the person was able to understand it. So my point is, bookies won't make a mistake they can't revert or correct, because on their part, that would be a big financial loss or a hit to their reputation if they couldn't justify their actions.

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Quote from: stadus on August 12, 2024, 01:40:39 AM

Quote from: Findingnemo on June 27, 2024, 09:03:15 AM

If I am not wrong if there is any mistake find from the bookmakers then all the bets will be voided and the funds better will be refund so the whole concept of capitalizing mistake is not possible at all, the only place where we can capitalize is to make use of the difference in the odds and that's most common but I mentioned about that earlier is the difference amount will be insignificant so better not to focus too much on it.

That’s the kind of advantage they have; they can charge your account for a mistake if it’s already settled or void it if it’s not yet settled. It’s written in the TOS. whether it’s a bug or something else that puts the sportsbook at a disadvantage. In cases like wrong point spreads and odds, those can easily be voided. Sportsbooks have oddsmakers who provide for many sportsbooks, so it can be justified easily without making gamblers think they were scammed or cheated.

The house has the means to shape the situation how they see fit. Thanks for the little insights!

stadus

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Quote from: Findingnemo on June 27, 2024, 09:03:15 AM

If I am not wrong if there is any mistake find from the bookmakers then all the bets will be voided and the funds better will be refund so the whole concept of capitalizing mistake is not possible at all, the only place where we can capitalize is to make use of the difference in the odds and that's most common but I mentioned about that earlier is the difference amount will be insignificant so better not to focus too much on it.

That’s the kind of advantage they have; they can charge your account for a mistake if it’s already settled or void it if it’s not yet settled. It’s written in the TOS. whether it’s a bug or something else that puts the sportsbook at a disadvantage. In cases like wrong point spreads and odds, those can easily be voided. Sportsbooks have oddsmakers who provide for many sportsbooks, so it can be justified easily without making gamblers think they were scammed or cheated.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

So, let me ask you more detailed questions to better discuss this topic.
How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

That's why we have what is called arbitrage betting, this is the system of using the miscalculations and mistakes of bookmakers to your advantage, but this is something that is very hard to get because these bookmakers take out their time to arrange the odds to their favor
They are also gamblers... bookmakers common mistake from my experience in most cases is not cross checking the odds of other platforms of some particular matches which might give gamblers an advantage to use the arbitrage system

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Quote from: shasan on August 11, 2024, 10:02:24 PM

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 30, 2024, 08:47:23 PM

The funny paradox here is that the bookmaker may make a mistake by calculating the odds incorrectly, or he may even give the other side an advantage in the odds. But it is not at all necessary that the player will be able to take advantage of this opportunity. The fact is that a player can lose even due to the bookmaker’s mistakes. The opposite is also true: a bookmaker can lose even if he calculates the odds completely correctly. For the degree of correct calculation is never absolute and any game leaves the possibility of a random event.

You are right that a mistake or miscalculation by the bookmaker can't be a favor of the player/gambler as the gambler might not be aware of that. I think only a few people who are too expert might be aware of the mistake and might be able to make a profit from the mistake though the mistake doesn't happen now and then.

Yeah, it comes from a greater experience, I believe in that too. And it's so rare that it's not even worth it to try to calculate it or try to go around the system, in my opinion.

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Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on June 30, 2024, 03:12:25 PM

Well, human beings are not usually above mistakes, and those bookmakers don't make errors frequently because if they do, it will cause a loss for the casino. That is why they do their job diligently to avoid those errors; they always look at the odds at all times, and changes always take place. Some gamblers who luckily come across a mistaken odd and stake on it can make a big profit, but this is not something that can happen frequently.

the house or dealer will certainly win more often than lose, but what you said is true with humans who are not free from mistakes so there is definitely a time when the dealer is wrong and makes them lose and then experience losses but I think the losses they experience are nothing compared to the wins they have achieved. the dealer's job is to manage the game to make it interesting, tense, or fun. but they don't forget their main goal is to make a profit.
for players who don't have a big role of course they can win when they are lucky, because the rare way they win proves that the dealer has full control, so the wins that can be obtained by the player depend on luck. besides that I think you yourself know and realize that the chances of winning that the dealer has are greater than those of ordinary gamblers so it's not strange that many gamblers experience defeat because their chances of winning are smaller than those of the dealer, including gambling that requires skills I think this is the same.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 30, 2024, 08:47:23 PM

The funny paradox here is that the bookmaker may make a mistake by calculating the odds incorrectly, or he may even give the other side an advantage in the odds. But it is not at all necessary that the player will be able to take advantage of this opportunity. The fact is that a player can lose even due to the bookmaker’s mistakes. The opposite is also true: a bookmaker can lose even if he calculates the odds completely correctly. For the degree of correct calculation is never absolute and any game leaves the possibility of a random event.

You are right that a mistake or miscalculation by the bookmaker can't be a favor of the player/gambler as the gambler might not be aware of that. I think only a few people who are too expert might be aware of the mistake and might be able to make a profit from the mistake though the mistake doesn't happen now and then.

Julien_Olynpic

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The funny paradox here is that the bookmaker may make a mistake by calculating the odds incorrectly, or he may even give the other side an advantage in the odds. But it is not at all necessary that the player will be able to take advantage of this opportunity. The fact is that a player can lose even due to the bookmaker’s mistakes. The opposite is also true: a bookmaker can lose even if he calculates the odds completely correctly. For the degree of correct calculation is never absolute and any game leaves the possibility of a random event.

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Quote from: Viscore on June 29, 2024, 07:46:02 AM

Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on June 29, 2024, 06:50:32 AM

Bookmaker mistakes are often predicted by some experienced gamblers, and once any error is detected, they take advantage immediately.

I don't know what kind of errors they can take advantage of when bookmakers make sure that they do their job well. Just imagine, if they make mistakes and cater to many sportsbooks, it would be a big hit on their reputation and they would eventually struggle. So it's a mistake that cannot happen for them to remain in business. There are times when the odds are wrong, but they can revert or correct it as it has a basis or justification. Other than that, I don't see any kind of mistake that is costly on their part.

Well, human beings are not usually above mistakes, and those bookmakers don't make errors frequently because if they do, it will cause a loss for the casino. That is why they do their job diligently to avoid those errors; they always look at the odds at all times, and changes always take place. Some gamblers who luckily come across a mistaken odd and stake on it can make a big profit, but this is not something that can happen frequently.

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Quote from: rahmad2nd on June 29, 2024, 08:21:41 AM

This is interesting, but I doubt if the probability of the bookie's error is always presented. I mean, there could be several times when the bookie makes a mistake. however, how big the probability is. that's why up until now I've never looked into ideas like the ones you put forward, we could use them as research material or seek new knowledge, but I'm still hesitant to experiment. the reason is, we at least have a small idea of how gambling bookies work. however, it does not rule out the possibility that some other members have knowledge related to this discussion.

I would like to say that there are different understandings of such a thing as “correct calculation of odds.” What does it mean? If we always calculated the odds correctly, we would never lose. On the other hand, the very fact that the bookmaker is engaged in calculating odds and creating odds tells us that he cannot absolutely accurately predict a future event and is only engaged in creating a model that very roughly predicts the future or will allow him to make money in most cases. This means that there are many factors that can affect the outcome of an event that the bookmaker does not take into account.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?

If you count as +/- @1.05 up to @1.15 I think there are tons of errors.
Bigger errors are really hard. There is a sort of consensus between bookmakers. If you don't agree.. use an exchange and ask your price.
Sometimes there are real errors but... if too big "the bug" they can also not pay your win.

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

2. What is his most common mistake?

They can go wrong for a minus part.

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

3. Why do high rates work?

If you mean "high odds" there is a psichologycal aspect to be taken in account. It's looking different @3 vs @10 ...

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?

There are some "small" errors they can made. But if these become "bigger" or avoid to exploit high amount of money are just fixed or not awarded.

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?

In football, they can not take in account the time wasted during the match...

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?

If gambling was an exact science, no one could be able to offer such services. How afford someone able to win any bet? Of course bookmaker have also a different money making system that it's not rely only on "Luck".

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

Technically bookmakers can hedge their position by using other bookmakers or brokers or just a betting exchange.
But as said before, gambling is not their business. I mean, they are not gambling the money, it's like offering a service and earning a kind of RTP for each bet. Well, rare events can lead to a "jackpot" for bookmaker, but it's well balanced by the money outflow.

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Bookmakers don't make mistakes very often, so those who are chasing those mistakes need to know that it's going to be a long and time-consuming process and they should focus on their bets and their research rather than look for bookmakers' mistakes.

One can indeed make good money if a bookmaker makes a mistake and gives a better team higher odds and a team with lower stats and abilities low odds, but this happens maybe a few times in a year or so because I haven't seen this happening a lot throughout my sports betting career.

However, sometimes, we may earn good profit if we bet against the bookmaker, which means that we bet on higher odds despite the side being less favourable and it works, but not all the time.

rahmad2nd

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Interesting, to be honest it never crossed my mind about Bookmaker betting prediction errors. as I understand, maybe I was wrong all this time, but let me also share my thoughts. bookies simply provide bettors with a series of options to choose from. in a match, fight or something like that, usually the bookie will provide various options for someone to choose their bet. whatever the type of bet, we are certainly given the option to choose according to our understanding or the results of our research and analysis. although it does not rule out the possibility that there was a mistake made by the Bookmaker. It's just that it never occurred to me to look for mistakes made by gambling bookies.

This is interesting, but I doubt if the probability of the bookie's error is always presented. I mean, there could be several times when the bookie makes a mistake. however, how big the probability is. that's why up until now I've never looked into ideas like the ones you put forward, we could use them as research material or seek new knowledge, but I'm still hesitant to experiment. the reason is, we at least have a small idea of how gambling bookies work. however, it does not rule out the possibility that some other members have knowledge related to this discussion.

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Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on June 29, 2024, 06:50:32 AM

Bookmaker mistakes are often predicted by some experienced gamblers, and once any error is detected, they take advantage immediately.

I don't know what kind of errors they can take advantage of when bookmakers make sure that they do their job well. Just imagine, if they make mistakes and cater to many sportsbooks, it would be a big hit on their reputation and they would eventually struggle. So it's a mistake that cannot happen for them to remain in business. There are times when the odds are wrong, but they can revert or correct it as it has a basis or justification. Other than that, I don't see any kind of mistake that is costly on their part.

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Bookmarkers usually have dozens of tasks to do because the odds of different matches are always changing every minute, and since those bookmakers are humans too, they are not bound to make mistakes most of the time but since they are professionals, they don't make the mistake of wrong odds computation frequently. Bookmaker mistakes are often predicted by some experienced gamblers, and once any error is detected, they take advantage immediately.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

3. Why do high rates work?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

The fact that a high odds which was least expected win at the end of the match is not a mistake, that's gambling for you, because in gambling anything is possible, and I don't see anyway why that should be regarded as error, because we have also had scenarios where odds like 1.10 to 1.30 also fail to play when gambled upon. So in that case who are you to blame? Or are you going to call that gamblers error? However, if only you have been opportuned to compare sport games across different casinos, you will notice that it's odds are always either the same or not having big differences, as it seems they are always a product of a global general booker who seems to analyze games and allocate odds according to its current and previous performance.

zuzie

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I think it is impossible for bookies to make mistakes like you said above because bookies will do everything they can to always be lucky and away from losses.
Bookies must have specifically designed tricks or strategies to minimize big losses on their gambling platforms. And I think bookies are typical of smart and clever people from gamblers because bookies will not want to give up just like that, they have to try to stay profitable and losses will only apply to gamblers.

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That will depends on the bookmarker. If they have a good skills, they will not make a wrong prediction so they can wins. If their skills not high, they will make a wrong prediction although they can also wins. But I don't thinks that a bookmarker will makes a wrong prediction too often because that can makes their business bankrupt. If they found one or more wrong prediction, they will search other people who can have a high skills in analyzing so they can back to wins the match. They will not like when their prediction is wrong so they will fixing that matters.

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Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on June 27, 2024, 09:08:58 AM

Quote from: Natalim on June 27, 2024, 08:33:47 AM

Bookmakers don't make mistakes because they set lines for both sides. If bettors put a lot of money on one side, bookmakers are willing to move the line on the other to attract bets and balance the action. Oddsmakers know their job very well as they are experts in that field and have already anticipated how people will react when they release the betting lines.

I think this discussion should focus on sports bettors' predictive mistakes, because there is smart money in sports and public bets based on public sentiment.

They do make mistakes, I have seen this countless times. Have had bets/lines cancelled for "wrong odds" several times. Always very annoying when the bookmaker makes the mistake and the player pays the price. If I as a player accidentally bet too much or on the wrong side for example they won't let you cancel it, even if you contact the support seconds after and the game doesn't start for another 5 hours.

If the odds are wrong, they should be canceled. This kind of mistake is inevitable, but this is not the kind of mistake I'm referring to. It's a normal mistake that we think we can take advantage of with the sportsbook. In general, I still believe they won't make mistakes that would lead to big losses. Otherwise, sportsbooks wouldn't become a billion-dollar industry.

Julien_Olynpic

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I would consider a bookmaker's mistake to be a situation in which a player or team with low chances of winning (and therefore high odds of winning) wins and the bookmaker is forced to pay a large winnings to the winner. I can’t prove this very clearly, but it seems to me that this situation happens quite often. In general, if we look at those rare players in sports betting who are consistently profitable in the long term, we will understand that they certainly make money, including from the bookmaker’s mistakes. But during the discussion, I realized that we understand bookmaker mistakes incorrectly. Like it's something dramatic. No, I consider any incorrectly calculated odds to be a mistake.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

To this day, I have not found any errors in the bookmakers that could benefit me in any way.

Perhaps this should occur for players who have a very high betting frequency, because although I play every week, I do not play every day and much less spend hours playing.

My opinion is that the profits are in the small details: Knowing how to control the bankroll, betting on the odds most of the time, but following your instinct when you believe that an "unlikely" team or player has a chance of winning... it is in these moments, when you bet against the predictions of the bookmaker and the majority of players, that you can obtain the best profits.

Yaunfitda

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Quote from: AHOYBRAUSE on June 27, 2024, 09:08:58 AM

Quote from: Natalim on June 27, 2024, 08:33:47 AM

Bookmakers don't make mistakes because they set lines for both sides. If bettors put a lot of money on one side, bookmakers are willing to move the line on the other to attract bets and balance the action. Oddsmakers know their job very well as they are experts in that field and have already anticipated how people will react when they release the betting lines.

I think this discussion should focus on sports bettors' predictive mistakes, because there is smart money in sports and public bets based on public sentiment.

They do make mistakes, I have seen this countless times. Have had bets/lines cancelled for "wrong odds" several times. Always very annoying when the bookmaker makes the mistake and the player pays the price. If I as a player accidentally bet too much or on the wrong side for example they won't let you cancel it, even if you contact the support seconds after and the game doesn't start for another 5 hours.

It's very rare though that they do make mistakes, haven't seen one, but I think casinos will have to find a way to give it back to the gamblers. And since gambling is a billion dollar business, this odd makers are very very careful of releasing their odds and for sure they have a lot of consultants and analytics to make the correct odds. So for me, there is no predictive mistakes, it's seldom to happen and it they did, they are going to quickly correct that mistakes have the adjustment and give the gamblers the money as a refund if they do make that mistakes. And as a gamblers, we shouldn't take advantage of casino having this wrong odds to be honest as again, sooner or later they will have to find it out even if it is late and make the necessary corrections.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?

I want to say more than we expect, but it mostly depends on the league or sports because the bigger and more competitive ones like the EURO Championship, can easily make you fall into their trap odds.

They also make frequent mistakes during the early portions of the season, and i've been saying it before, they don't mind making mistakes because they use those to make their odds more accurate.

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

2. What is his most common mistake?

One of the many mistakes I can recall is probably them setting favored odds on teams that used to dominate the previous seasons and taking all the time they needed to correct the odds even though the team was showing signs of regression halfway through the season.

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?

Nope, as you place more bets, the more you'll understand why they've made those mistakes.

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?

One of them is whenever there's an unexpected trend between specific matches.

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?

I've mentioned it earlier, mistakes help them improve.

Wexnident

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

~

Wouldn't really say say it's a mistake? A mistake is when there's a massively big difference between the odds that they wanted to provide towards the real one. That's a mistake. If you're talking about when the higher odds lose to the lower odds player, odds have never been a basis 100% for a match. It just shows that there's a big difference between the two that probably 9 out of 10 games (or something, depending on the odds), the higher odds team would win.

I guess you can say this is just an extension of arbitrage but hell in most cases there's really a minimal difference with it. I'd say it's honestly rare for them to make a real "mistake" since, well, that's what they're relying on a living for.

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Quote from: Agbe on June 27, 2024, 10:15:09 AM

Quote from: Gozie51 on June 27, 2024, 06:53:27 AM

Bookmakers mistake is what comes once after a long while. I have noticed that a long time ago maybe 4 years back or three where a club that was better was given higher odds than the less favourable club and then bettors noticed it and where betting on it but it was letter pulled down when it was realized and I guess those early stakers got the advantage, though I have forgotten the names of the clubs for now.

Yes they make mistakes but the very noticeable ones or obvious ones don't happen all the time. I is difficult to get those common mistakes in odds because you would have to go through many options to identify such.

You are right, bookmarkers make mistake once a while and if they do they would noticed it fast and fixed the mistake. It was in the year 2020 or there about ans I was in the betting shop and such thing happened and many people won from the mistake that day. And within some hours the problem was fixed. But we don't have to look for bookmarkers mistakes instead play along and try our lucks. Bookmarkers in this days are very much careful in the arrangement of games. So it is very difficult to see such mistakes. But if happened, then gamblers will use the opportunity to win odds.

If I could recollect a little, I think that happened in Scottish lead then between Rangers but I can't seem to remember the opponent. So it happened that it seem the bookmakers realised something was wrong with the way bettors were hitting on the game and staking hugely on it with DNB and other options, they pulled it down after some hours but then smart gamblers had already taken the advantage on the game. It eventually happened that most lucky bettors won and cashed out from it even though some betting companies didn't agree to pay some player full potential winning, claiming the game was pulled down before it started. So it is quite possible for bookmakers to make such mistake but it is very rare.

Edit: Yes I got the information, that match was between Rangers vs Cowdenbeath , it ended 5-1 in favour of Rangers who was mistakenly given above 5 odds against 1+ odd and they had all stats favouring them including head to head. That was in 10 Jan. 2016.

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Quote from: Agbe on June 27, 2024, 10:15:09 AM

Quote from: Gozie51 on June 27, 2024, 06:53:27 AM

Bookmakers mistake is what comes once after a long while. I have noticed that a long time ago maybe 4 years back or three where a club that was better was given higher odds than the less favourable club and then bettors noticed it and where betting on it but it was letter pulled down when it was realized and I guess those early stakers got the advantage, though I have forgotten the names of the clubs for now.

Yes they make mistakes but the very noticeable ones or obvious ones don't happen all the time. I is difficult to get those common mistakes in odds because you would have to go through many options to identify such.

You are right, bookmarkers make mistake once a while and if they do they would noticed it fast and fixed the mistake. It was in the year 2020 or there about ans I was in the betting shop and such thing happened and many people won from the mistake that day. And within some hours the problem was fixed. But we don't have to look for bookmarkers mistakes instead play along and try our lucks. Bookmarkers in this days are very much careful in the arrangement of games. So it is very difficult to see such mistakes. But if happened, then gamblers will use the opportunity to win odds.

If I could recollect a little, I think that happened in Scottish lead then between Rangers but I can't seem to remember the opponent. So it happened that it seem the bookmakers realised something was wrong with the way bettors were hitting on the game and staking hugely on it with DNB and other options, they pulled it down after some hours but then smart gamblers had already taken the advantage on the game. It eventually happened that most lucky bettors won and cashed out from it even though some betting companies didn't agree to pay some player full potential winning, claiming the game was pulled down before it started. So it is quite possible for bookmakers to make such mistake but it is very rare.

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I don't think it's actually a mistake or miscalculation because the business of gambling is a business that's filled with so much uncertainties except for games that are been owned and controlled by the casinos where they have the whole power to manipulate the results in their own favour. Most times, the casinos makes all those odds based on the perceived strength of the teams with the mind that their predictions work in an ideal situation but as nature may have it, at some point, things can turn around in the field of play and that can make the game results come out otherwise and it still doesn't mean that they were totally worng, just like the gambler, the book makers are also predicting not with an utmost certainty. In some cases or even most cases it's usually that the bookmakers predictions aren't totally wrong just like that of the gambler and the only advantage a gambler can get is to making sure they get as more stats as they can and applying risk management, they can make the best available pick.

MarvinHagler

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It is very rare. The biggest bookmakers have hundreds of analysts and traders working for them,

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I don’t think trusted bookmakers make mistakes, and that too in big events. Yes, if it is low-level tournaments, then there is a slight possibility that the bookmakers might make a mistake. But in the case of high leagues, the odds providers are very cautious about the odds, and we generally don’t see any chance here. Moreover, if you find the loophole in the odds and make profits, then many times the bookmakers reject your bets and might block your account with your hard-earned money.

uneng

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Let's say bookmakers do predictive mistakes. That is something which rarely happens, but we still have to consider this possibility as it's made by humans, and humans aren't perfect on their actions and performances.

However, if you wait a bookmaker to commit a lapse, you will have a hard time finding gambling matches to bet on, because as we know, it rarely happens. You will spend a long time searching for a bet which bookmakers didn't manage to set accurate odds, and in the end it still doesn't guarantee you are going to win the bet, anyway.

If you manage to find a good opportunity you think bookmakers made a mistake, go for it, but don't put a lot of effort on searching for it. I guess you will regret a lot after you concluded you have wasted your time doing this. Precious time you could have used for more important and rewarding matters.

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That is right, bookmakers sometimes made mistakes when providing the odds and I saw that usually happened in live betting.
But that usually only happens in a matter of seconds, after correction the odds will be back to normal.

And if someone bets on an abnormal/error odds, it is certain that the bet will be void, casino have the right and legal to do that in accordance with the T&C that the user agrees to when registering on the platform.
I suggest not to bet on abnormal/error odds, because 100% it will be voided and the cancellation process might take several hours to several days.

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1. Very rare. They almost make no mistakes.
2. Check the player props, sometimes they get it wrong there.
3. Lack of updated news.
4. Impossible to find, not impossible to predict.
5. Stats. I have never found a mistake by a bookmaker by just the odds of the winning team. In basketball.
6. I have no idea.
7. Hmm. That's something that must be asked of them.

I rarely see mistakes and the one that I cannot forget is betting on Nikola Jokic's overall statistics. Points, rebounds, and assists. The given amount was 53 PRA if I remember it right. Then, even before the game started I was already a winner. I can cash out without even thinking about whether Jokic can make it or not. It grew from 53 PRA @x1.80+ to 57 PRA at the same amount.
It not a large change but imagine if you are betting for millions of dollars. That's a win with no hassle.

Agbe

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Quote from: Gozie51 on June 27, 2024, 06:53:27 AM

Bookmakers mistake is what comes once after a long while. I have noticed that a long time ago maybe 4 years back or three where a club that was better was given higher odds than the less favourable club and then bettors noticed it and where betting on it but it was letter pulled down when it was realized and I guess those early stakers got the advantage, though I have forgotten the names of the clubs for now.

Yes they make mistakes but the very noticeable ones or obvious ones don't happen all the time. I is difficult to get those common mistakes in odds because you would have to go through many options to identify such.

You are right, bookmarkers make mistake once a while and if they do they would noticed it fast and fixed the mistake. It was in the year 2020 or there about ans I was in the betting shop and such thing happened and many people won from the mistake that day. And within some hours the problem was fixed. But we don't have to look for bookmarkers mistakes instead play along and try our lucks. Bookmarkers in this days are very much careful in the arrangement of games. So it is very difficult to see such mistakes. But if happened, then gamblers will use the opportunity to win odds.

_act_

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Quote from: Sim_card on June 27, 2024, 09:51:22 AM

Looking for bookmakers mistake in order for you to take advantage of the net is a waste of time. This is because they make mistakes once in a while since it is their job to calculate the odds and they know what is involved if any mistakes happens. However, nobody is perfect and there are some matches that the bookmakers will predict but after the game it turns out to be the opposite, most bettors will also run at loss, since it was the underdog that won the match.

I also see it as a waste of time. If I want to bet, I go for better odds that I think I have the highest chance to win. But there are some time that you will see the bookmakers make mistake but which is not common because these betting sites also check other betting sites to see how their odds are. That is why you will see that all the odds on bookmakers are almost the same, including the matches odd that you think they make mistakes.

Looking for the mistake will only also take me time that I need to have on other things. I do not really have time to bet which can not make me to go for that kind of betting. Betting is just for fun and not for making money, but the research that could cost me might make it not fun for me.

Sim_card

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Looking for bookmakers mistake in order for you to take advantage of the net is a waste of time. This is because they make mistakes once in a while since it is their job to calculate the odds and they know what is involved if any mistakes happens. However, nobody is perfect and there are some matches that the bookmakers will predict but after the game it turns out to be the opposite, most bettors will also run at loss, since it was the underdog that won the match.

Solosanz

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I think in order to know if the bookmaker make mistake is to compare the odds with other bookies, if the difference is really high, then they made mistakes. If you place a bet and win, it's better to withdraw the winning ASAP since the bookie might voided your bets and confiscate your winning.

It's very rare to see bookmaker make mistake especially technology is always evolving.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

So, let me ask you more detailed questions to better discuss this topic.
How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

Although these are very rare cases, at least that I have seen, bookmakers make mistakes when there are games involving teams from Africa, Asia and some from Latin America. I say error in the sense that they give high odds to a team that at the end of the game wins easily and sometimes they give very low odds to a team that in the end loses in a humiliating way, I've seen this happen a few times when I placed bets on league games from Korea and China, then I saw it a few times in the games of national teams from Africa, maybe it's because as they are not very popular games, the oddsmakers don't know these teams very well, so they make mistakes when assigning odds. But looking in general, these errors are very small, they are things that are not worth keeping an eye on to take advantage of, because there is a greater chance of the person losing bets and money. The best thing is for a person to bet on popular leagues where they have fair odds

YOSHIE

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

1. Online gambling bookies, they are humans, generally humans are not free from the mistakes and mistakes they make, whether they are bookies, operators and so on, If you ask 'how often' the answer is clearly difficult, but bookies often make mistakes, for example in setting odds which as far as I know they often do.
2. If I'm not mistaken bookmakers make the most common mistakes in betting such as: offering odds and other common mistakes such as placing different odds on the same betting event.
3. Don't understand.
4. As far as I know, betting is very volatile, whether it is the bookie's or the player's error, meaning it cannot be predicted accurately.
5. Don't understand.
6. Because they are humans too.
7. Don't know.

That's what I can answer.

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Quote from: Natalim on June 27, 2024, 08:33:47 AM

Bookmakers don't make mistakes because they set lines for both sides. If bettors put a lot of money on one side, bookmakers are willing to move the line on the other to attract bets and balance the action. Oddsmakers know their job very well as they are experts in that field and have already anticipated how people will react when they release the betting lines.

I think this discussion should focus on sports bettors' predictive mistakes, because there is smart money in sports and public bets based on public sentiment.

They do make mistakes, I have seen this countless times. Have had bets/lines cancelled for "wrong odds" several times. Always very annoying when the bookmaker makes the mistake and the player pays the price. If I as a player accidentally bet too much or on the wrong side for example they won't let you cancel it, even if you contact the support seconds after and the game doesn't start for another 5 hours.

Findingnemo

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If I am not wrong if there is any mistake find from the bookmakers then all the bets will be voided and the funds better will be refund so the whole concept of capitalizing mistake is not possible at all, the only place where we can capitalize is to make use of the difference in the odds and that's most common but I mentioned about that earlier is the difference amount will be insignificant so better not to focus too much on it.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker?

It is only when our forecasted games plays as predicted that we can call it a correct forecast, right? If it's a lost then it wasn't a correct forecast at all. So what difference does it make for in being more right than the bookmakers?

Bookmakers, imo are wrong as often as they could be. They aren't superhumans anyway despite their being said to have expertise at what they do. Their main job is to confuse gamblers with the odds in games with how they delineate odds sizes. That's why we sometimes find team's with very big odds winning a match against a team with very small odd different from what we had expected going by the stats of both teams.

Though in few cases it backfires at them that they get to be at loss while gamblers profit. The difference between bookmakers and the gamblers is that they have a higher accurate statistical measurements than the gamblers.

Natalim

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Bookmakers don't make mistakes because they set lines for both sides. If bettors put a lot of money on one side, bookmakers are willing to move the line on the other to attract bets and balance the action. Oddsmakers know their job very well as they are experts in that field and have already anticipated how people will react when they release the betting lines.

I think this discussion should focus on sports bettors' predictive mistakes, because there is smart money in sports and public bets based on public sentiment.

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It is hard to prove that they got wrong because their job is to create odds which I don't think is how we say they are wrong if a bettor thinks this team should get higher or lower odds. Of course, they will do the analysis first before publishing it but it depends in the better where they put their bets. If we lose, it doesn't mean the bookmakers are wrong as they don't do anything to change the results of the game. We accept the fact that we are not lucky enough to get the favor and many times that the underdog wins. This means that betting never ensures winnings even if we place our bet on the winning team, sometimes they lose as well.

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If you're talking solely about odds being too high or too low that's not classified as a bookmaker mistake and gives no guarantee of profits. You could try betting on the team which was given a higher odd than what you expected based on their chances of winning and they still lose.

A mistake that guarantees profit will be a miscalculation that allows players to be guaranteed profits if they play on all possible outcomes or they arbitrage across different bookies. Or adding an option which gives players an almost guaranteed chance of winning. I've seen bookies open new gambling options and close that after a few games cause they were being exploited.

To keep this thread running you'll need to ensure that the info being shared doesn't result in illegal activity according to the ToS.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

So, let me ask you more detailed questions to better discuss this topic.
How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

There are companies that deal with that,offering odds to bookmakers and of course sometimes they are wrong but that is very difficult to predict.Some people who do arbitrage betting all they do is checking different odds in order to take profit from these odds differences.That is the only error which we can measure directly and also take profit from if we have enough resources.The error which I assume you are asking is if there is a big gap through different bookmakers which we can also take profit sometime if we place a bet on that game and happen to win for example with odd 2.2 where in other bookmakers is 1.95 so these are errors we can capitalize on.If you mean that odds are 1.3 for a certain team and that team loses it is exactly here that bookmakers make money.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 27, 2024, 06:36:02 AM

I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

Sometimes you will think that the bookies are wrong but when you select the match, the result can be not in your favour. I saw two recently but I did not bet on the matches because I was kind of not to take it. The first was over 2 odd while the second was over 3.2 odd. The 2 odd drew the match while the 3.2 odd won the match after 90 minutes during 5 minutes extra time. I have won bets like this before also. But I do not look for them, I saw them when I am looking for matches to bet on. It is not often at all to see such matches.

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Bookmakers mistake is what comes once after a long while. I have noticed that a long time ago maybe 4 years back or three where a club that was better was given higher odds than the less favourable club and then bettors noticed it and where betting on it but it was letter pulled down when it was realized and I guess those early stakers got the advantage, though I have forgotten the names of the clubs for now.

Yes they make mistakes but the very noticeable ones or obvious ones don't happen all the time. I is difficult to get those common mistakes in odds because you would have to go through many options to identify such.

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I don't think that bookmakers makes this predictive mistakes. Remember that they all get their odds on Las Vegas and those who make it, their job is not to predict who is going to win, but to balance the bet the way they see it.

And so if it happens that there is a upset let's say, then it's not their fault or mistakes. It's that how they find the odds and it's up to us players on who we are going to pick based on the odds that is being presented to us. So it might come from all the records they have, algorithms, perhaps by now they are using AI as well. So it will not be a mistakes, it just shows that we really don't know what the outcome will be in a sport betting as sometime a underdog can defy the odds being set by the odd makers.

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In terms of how often They could get wrong is very little because the only thing that Makes them afloat is the right odds that they are making. So if they are someone who just got into bookmaking and doesn’t know how to really get the calculations right it might affect their profitability. Hence more problems could occur and mistakes.

If someone is in the Bookmaking for so long, Then you would expect him to make less mistakes. It’s probably based on experience.

Looking for mistakes is a great way to profit, maybe someone could share their strategies or something.

Julien_Olynpic

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Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

So, let me ask you more detailed questions to better discuss this topic.
How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

Topic: Bookmaker's predictive mistakes. (Read 550 times)