After we witnessed how it turned out for Casimero when he fought that Japanese guy in their country, this will likely be the same scenario as that because they are not afraid anymore to give an advantage to their fellow countrymen as long as they have the privilege to do so. Franco needs to work hard in his training because even a clear knockout will result in disqualification if he hits his opponent close to the not permissible part. He needs to put pressure and give his best in throwing multiple punches since his knockout percentage is not well; he will probably win by unanimous decision if he shows them domination throughout the rounds.
I don't think Franco has a good chance to knockout Ioka because latest Franco fights, he was rarely win via KO, so I would expect this fight will go into decision. Franco had show a good performance in the previous match, but I think Ioka should be win in the rematch due to biased judges.
Yes, Franco doesn't have the knockout power, what his strategy or what he does is to overwhelm his opponents with a lot of punch. Not necessarily with power, but just touching them to look good at the judges. But it was a different set of eyes, and although he throws a lot of punch, it was not enough for them to award him the win.
If the fight is close and it should be draw, Ioka will win. If Franco is more dominating, but it's not completely dominating, the fight will be draw.
It's like Ioka has 60% chance to win, while Franco only has 40%.
As per the current odds though, Franco is the slight favorite, at 1.82, Ioka at 1.96.
So maybe this is going to be another close fight in the book and judges will have to do their job here.