Topic: Brexit: the beginning of the end? (Read 2586 times)

               
          One thing  is for sure here, indeed if there has to be any war in Europe today we all know that the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 is very much better and protected that’s why pulling out from the brexit was a huge loss for EU yet no matter what if anything should happen to United Kingdom 🇬🇧 today there are some nations still in the EU that will never stop supporting United Kingdom 🇬🇧.
        The United state of America 🇺🇸 has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that they are United Kingdom’s closest tie and will not for any reason break that bond. I don’t see any problem with the fact the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 Decided to leave, there must some other countries in the EU that would have loved to leave too but ain’t bold enough to come up with it.

Yeah everybody wants to hold the power, but if we look down to individual people we see that most of them don't care about politics. For most elections I see participation rates of 50-60% which is not a lot. Voters either don't have favourite party they would vote for or they just don't care. To me it looks like more the local politicians want to have more power and look more important. However having countries with less than 100 million people trying to be important is not working out anymore. That is why the future is with countries like China or India.

Up to now, the EU is still kicking the can down the road. And this is a relief.

Brexit happened and things kept going. Of course, losing the United Kingdom was a major blow to the EU.

The EU also survived the 4 years of Trump divisionist policy.

It was also able to deal with Covid and its major economic consequences. Up to now.

But the debt increased more and more. The only thing making the all structure running and interests rates low is the European Central Bank buying public debts like crazy or the PIIGS would again have major financial crisis on their hands.

For how long will the European Central Bank save everything? The economic consequences of Covid aren't over, on the contrary.

And the Europeans keep getting older and older: https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/demographics-of-europe/

I wonder how bad 2020 was in demographic terms?
https://dteurope.com/population/2020-the-worst-ever-demographic-year-in-hungary/

Old people will leave all the public debt to be paid by whom, if there are no kids?

Italy has been, still is and will be the elephant in the room.

Its public debt is about 2.3 trillion (132% of its GDP).
https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-new-threat-to-the-euro-1527539789

It's not about the Italian decision to leave the euro. Not even the new euroskeptical italian government will have the courage to decide that.

It's about starting spending a lot more, losing the faith of the lending market, starting paying much more in interest (so, spending even more for borrowing money to pay the current debt) and ending up losing access to the lending market because of rates above 8%.

Well, if Italy loses access to the lending market, there won't be enough money on the European Financial Stability Facility (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Financial_Stability_Facility) to bail out the italian government. It's 780 billion won't be enough.

If this happens, Italy will make the biggest default on humankind history and, probably, will be forced out of the euro.

Moreover, before this happening, the other PIIGS (all hugely indebted) would be under heavy financial stress and would also lose access to the lending market...

And all hell would break lose...

Another stress factor will be the oil price, because it's already pushing inflation up.

If the oil price keeps going up and inflation goes above 2%, the European Central Bank will be under heavy pressure to stop it's current quantitative easing police (the ECB is still buying european debt bonds on the market, pressuring their interests rates down and, so, helping the european governments paying artificial low interest rates) and to start elevating its interest rates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#Europe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank#Bond_purchase

This will add to Italy and other PIIGS financial troubles...

We are in the era of divide and rule. Guess who gets divided, guess who wants to rule.

It was just a possible scenario, but the German army presented a report outlining several outcomes for 2040, including the break-up of the EU:

http://www.newsweek.com/eu-collapse-2040-germany-army-703624

And why do you think that voting for him was not a protest? People have not changed their opinion. An example might be a vote in the United States for Trump. The French do not know what to expect from the Macron, but they know I don't want to see the power of Marie Le Pen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017

This was a relief, but more than 1/3 of the french voted against EU by voting on Le Pen.

Actually, on the first round, about 43% voted on candidates arguing that France should leave the EU: Le Pen (21.3%), Melenchon (19.58%) and a few more on small candidates.

If about 2.3% of the french citizens (Macron had about more 1.5 million votes than Melenchon) changed his vote from Macron on the first round to Melenchon, he and Le Pen both would pass to the second round and France would probably leave the UE with catastrophic results.

Therefore, 2.3% of the french decided this outcome.

2.3% can change their opinions so quickly...

Not much sure about Le Pen in France. She has constantly failed to cross the 30% barrier, and the issue is that the mainstream parties would unite to defeat her, forgetting the differences which exist among them.

The so called simple people know that simply they are getting robbed by the EU..

The world is under threat by spreading our lands with backward MUSLIMS..

Also we are NOT PAYING your 50 billion NOT 1 PENCE..
No one pays a penalty when they leave the EU.

Also if we pay the 50 billion does that mean we own the EU.Like an ASSET?
so we should expect profits or we can sell our shares in the EU?..

NOT 1 FUCKING THING AS A REMOANER GOT RIGHT..

Why should i pay someone to sell something to someone else ..MAFIA SHIT ..TRIBUNE

TO THE EU FUCK YOU ..You are not getting 1 pence..
Come on BE FUNNY YOU TWATS..I FUCKING HATE YOU ALL..FUCKING LEECHES..

Go and get a proper job like i have on a building site..You wouldn't last 5mins..ARR TO HARD FOR YOU

EU UN ELECTED POLITICAL BUMS..USING MY TAXES TO PAY FOR YOUR LIVES FUCK OFF..

WE WILL MAKE THE UK GREAT AGAIN..

We have many many trading partners who want no tariffs free trade ..

The EU is dead..Also the amount of people from London who are crying over BREXIT ..

LONDON AS FUCKED OVER..Every city and town from wales Ireland Scotland and the north of ENLAND
to the midlands ..

YOU ARE FUCKING SCUM BAGS ..GREEDY TWATS.
Now you can act like a part of the uk or you can act like a different country but ether way we are out of the
EU..

London as sucked all the money up from our towns and cities we have had enough..
Spread the wealth around ..

Big contract from government LONDON GETS IT  8 out of 10 times

Most police on beat LONDON GETS IT..
It's a wonder you ain't built a wall to protect all the fucking ARSE HOLE ELITE ..
Big wall around London ..

  LONDON BE LIKE ISRAEL .Big wall around it so the poor don't get in ..

Mind you if you ain't got 200 pounds not worth even going to london..
Cost that for a coffee .

So to LONDON YOU HAVE TOOK THE PISS FAR TOO LONG..
Time to spread the wealth..

If America wants to build something big REMEMBER London is not the only place in the UK ..

Then you got cheeky people from london who say we give our taxes to everyone ..

NO YOUR ROBBING ALL THE FUCKING CONTRACTS..So shut your mouths.

Head office always in london..So the head office means head pay..
So put a fucking head office somewhere else in the uk ..

Then that area will have head pay   spending head pay   in there local areas ..
So more money for there towns and cities..

London as been robbing all the work for hundreds of years  
because the lords have been close to the kings and queens down in london telling us all what to do..

THE PEOPLE RULE ..I was watching the LORDS over Brexit.. ..

Some of them lords think they own us..
They say that they have the sole power to choose in the end not the people ..

I am afraid old thinkers that was when we used to get robbed by the kings and queens of yesteryear

Like you know   riding through the village and robbing us and making us pay taxes or you will come back and kill us all..THOSE DAYS ARE OVER..OLD THINKERS..

DO WE NEED MIDDLEMEN TO DO BUSINESS?..We do have the INTERNET so why middlemen..

Well the EU is a MIDDLEMAN ..Useless now the internet is here..
WE DON'T NEED THE EU TO RUN OUR BUSINESS ANYMORE..

One click and many companies who will sell or buy in a flash..

To mrs may UKIP will win if you fail with BREXIT.

LABOUR IS A ISLAMIC PARTY

It is the end of the beginning, and now it's a new beginning of the end

All of the neighbors of Serbia are either EU members already, or are pushing for the membership. In such a scenario, it won't be good for the Serbs to opt out of the EU, by remaining as an enclave within the Union. The Western European nations such as Germany and Netherlands are facing acute shortage of manpower. If Serbia becomes a member, then it can be mutually beneficial for both the parties.

Now great changes are taking place in world politics. If you really in France do come to power Marie Le pen, the EU is indeed under threat. Also in Italy the government can Preeti, a former clown. The world is under threat. And the worst thing that contribute to this threat are simple people.

With Trump openly advocating the end of the EU (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-trump-brexit-20170115-story.html: "Trump says Brexit is 'a great thing,' predicts EU will continue to break apart") and more or less still menacing NATO and the Pax Americana (http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-boot-trump-reorients-us-foreign-policy-20170122-story.html) there are even more reasons to be worried.

The 7th of May is the next critical date.

If Le Pen jr. wins the french presidencial second turn elections, the euro will crash like if there were no tomorrow and southern public debt's interest rates will skyrock, menacing the PIGS economic and political stability and their maintenance in the euro, including Italy.

Yes, it will be hard for her to win the french presidency (43% and growing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017#Opinion_polls_for_expected_second_round_of_voting). But I wrote the same about Trump.

Taking in account the 1932 German elections, Î thought, hell, even after the 1929 crises and the almost 30% unemployment, only 37.23% of the Germans were crazy enough to vote for the nazis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_July_1932).

I thought it's impossible that half of a people from a developed and educated country would vote for Trump.

Yes, shore.

If, after that, Le Pen manages to win a french referendum on the euro or/and a frexit from the EU (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/06/marine-le-pen-front-national-cameron-eu-referendum), all hell will break lose.

In Germany, the GDP per capita is $39,500.00 per capita, while in Serbia, that number is $11,100.00 per capita.

Why do you think there are so desperate to join the EU gravy train, are they going to be a net contributor?  Dont think so.

And I still don't understand why Serbias' president Aleksandar Vucic is still forcing and pushing towards EU.

The EU should have remained as a open trade agreement and nothing more.

As soon as the power crazed EU politicians pushed more and more towards a united states of Europe the more the people have rebelled.

The UK is the just the first of many to leave and I look forward to the end of the failed EU project.

I think my believes and hopes are stated clearly on the text.

I have hopes on the success of the European Union project.

I just can't see the political and economic conditions for that.

Italy owes 2,228,741 million USD, 132% of its GDP (http://countryeconomy.com/national-debt/italy) and, as was recalled on this thread, most of this debt in insured by credit default swaps and other derivatives.

And, like all European countries, its already losing active population, because of disastrous birth rates.

When debt doesn't stop growing, the GDP is more or less on a stagnated level for 15 years, active population is decreasing, there is a growing number of old people (with higher health and social security expenses)  and there is no inflation, of course this is going to explode. Soon or later.

Its banking crisis is only aggravating this.

When Italy had to pay on an auction 8% for borrow money for 10  years on 2009 or 2010, the Euro was on the brick of disaster.

It was a miracle that the euro system survived.

There won't be enough money to save Italy, if it loses access to the lending market.

The only think supporting this is the ECB and its quantitative easing policy and zero interest rates.

If inflation goes up to 2% because of oil prices or a dump of the euro (imported inflation, caused by the increase of imported foreign goods), the ECB will have to stop this quantitative easing policy.

So, Italy will need to give an hard haircut on their lenders, like Greece.

That will spread to other high indebted countries, like Spain.

Banks, which are the main lenders, will go bankrupt or will need more help...

The only way to help them would be to "print" money. But that can't be done on the euro system. Several countries might need to leave the euro.

Yes, Draghi will again try to save everything and, probably, he will be successful for some more time, but...

I have big hopes he could solve the problem, but I have my doubts.

Anyway, it wouldn't be the end of civilization as we know it. Far from that.

We still have a lot of scientific progress going on, we will handle this.

But it might end up the European project as a political union.

Apocalypse fetishists like to spell the end of everything but it's wishful thinking. The UE will transform into a viable entity. There are plans in place to make it happen. Adjustments will be made but it's a process that involves both regression and progress.

Not specifically related to Brexit, but current Leader of the Opposition just got a massive boost to his re-election campaign:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37009871

Suck it, Blairite scum!  For those who aren't familiar with the story, Labour's governing body ruled that there should be a cut-off point for newly registered members to be able to vote in the leadership contest and this has just been blown out of the water in court.

He was probably going to win even without this, but now it's Corbyn's victory on a platter.  Not a silver one, though, bit too posh.   

I don't think the Europeans fear Russia, they invaded a few times.

Thank you for a very interesting and comprehensive political analysis of Eu.
It's true that EU passing through the a major crisis, the biggest since the establishment of EU.
It's possible that EU will collapse but it's not sure thing.
Still main eU countries like Germany, Italy, France etc. didn't give up from EU.
EU candidates like Serbia, Montenegro, bosnia still didn't hive up from eU.
So, ideals of EU are still alive but EU need to redefine their economic and political goals in the future.
We still need Europe without borders, trade agreements, economic Co-operation and financial supports for weaker countries etc.
Euro is also very important project and symbol of EU.
I think and hope that EU will learn from this current crisis, overcome all problems and continue as long term project, for political and economic stability of the Europe.

Europeans fear Russia and themselves (mainly Germany) too much to live without the US to defend them.

Actually, the story of the XX century is the story of the Europeans whining for help from the US on all major situations.

Now that the Europeans got that, they won't let go.

It's time for the people of the EU to stand up as a counter force against the EU... just as it is time for the people of every major government to stand up as a counter force against their government.

Your link doesnt work, but i know that issue from other newspapers.

Tbh imho this doesnt actually have to be bad for Europe or rather the EU, because in my eyes it is time for the EU to stand up as a counter force to the USA, Russia and China.

As long as the EU moves under the wing of the USA i dont see much chances for that.

As the European Union is now it is irrelevant as a real instrument of peace.

The more recent declarations of Trump about NATO (www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/us/politics/donald-trump-issue) do create concerns about its future as an instrument of peace in Europe if he gets elected.

There are few US soldiers left in Germany. I'd say there's only one tenth of what there were a generation ago. Regarding Trump, he surprised everybody by saying that because that would just destroy NATO. NATO is meaningless if it's only between countries on the same side of the Atlantic. I doubt he would do that, because that would Russia too happy.


Nobody, or very few people support the idea of a federal Europe. Some people here see Europe as socialist, but most Europeans see it as capitalist, putting in place free market policies which destroy jobs by closing factories with inefficient workers or management.

From my point of view, that description is not entirely accurate.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-11/imf-warns-global-contagion-italian-bank-crisis-forecasts-two-decade-long-recession

Yes, I suspect it will be Italy who will collapse the euro system.

The Italians are sitting on an Everest of debt.

There is no money on the European rescue system to finance Italy if they lose the access to the bond market. Its creditors will burn like a supernova.

We'll see how many years more they can keep kicking the can down the road, thanks to the ECB.

If I recall well, on 2009, on the middle of the crisis, they paid once 8% for a 10 years bond. Things were real near collapse.

Many people has been waiting for the Japanese debt to blow out (with a demographic catastrophe on their hands, even worst than the European), I wonder for how long they will keep it going.

Of course, the Japanese central bank has been buying it at even bigger rates than the ECB. Until inflation starts, no problem...

It's like someone falling from a building. At the middle of the fall, someone asks him from a window: how are you? He shouts: so far, no problem.

The Zimbabwean central bank did the same. We all know the results.

But only inflation (or a huge haircut) can solve this mess, by destroying the value of the debt. I only hope it won't be a Zimbabwean type of inflation.

Brexit and the Derivatives Time Bomb







Read more at http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/brexit_and_the_derivatives_time_bomb_20160706.

Even if some of the votes (let's admit 10%) were fake, that wouldn't affect the global numbers: 4,116,635 signatures (https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215)

Kerry already said he doesn't believe the Brexit will happen (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/29/john-kerry-brexit-could-be-walked-back-david-cameron). If the US don't believe on it...

Others are saying the same:

Of course, they will need a second referendum, they couldn't ignore the first without a second (http://fortune.com/2016/06/27/britain-stays-eu-brexit/).

But I'm not saying nothing. The British will decide.

As is clear from the OP, I believe the EU to be important for Europe. I even believe that it should develop into a federal union.

However, proposals like the ones of EU Parliament President (http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/686177/EU-superstate-Brussels-bureaucrat-European-federal-government-Brexit), currently, have no chance to be adopted.

I think the probabilities for the end of the euro and a major crisis on the European Union are higher.

If this crisis is going to happen, unfortunately, I have to write that the British are better off. They are paying a high price today, but averting paying a higher price tomorrow.

Of course, I still hope the Brexit and the crisis won't happen and that slowly the EU might develop into a federal union.

there isnt going to be another vote. Remain were caught faking the petition signatures!!!  Though i agree if they had another vote im pretty sure the results would be even more in leaves favour.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36634407

As well as
A win against the Globalists , Banksters , Liberal Socialists , The New World Order

It can not be over stated enough the populist victory of Brexit ia a sign that finally the sheeple are waking up and rising against their masters. there may just be hope left for this world yet!!!???

It's starting to look good for the UK. If there is a second referendum, then leave could end up with a bigger majority, and tht would screw the party that called it.

The big question now, is what hppens to UK interest rates, and the banking crisis. shares are down 25%

I think that this referendum had many protest votes.
People voted for option: ''leave'' because of some other reasons, like dissatisfaction with politicians, or generally with the situation in  society, no jobs, crimes etc.
Most of them didn't really want that UK leave EU and now they are all in panic and want new referendum.
Unfortunately, as I heard, it's very complicate and difficult legal process to start new referendum and already Cameroon said that there will be no new referendum.
Also, it seems EU is not willing to wait to long for UK to leave.

The petition to remove effect to the referendum already has 3,743,751 signatures (https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215).

A change on the pools about the outcome and another deal with the EU could create the conditions for another referendum.

But even taking in account how much is at stake, including UK's unity, (at least) the short-term conditions of its economy, its role on Europe and EU future (and also Cameron's future), it won't be easy to happen. A popular decision is a popular decision.

Brexit is a fresh start of a new beginning.

I again suggest that the UK distribute all welfare bennies to able bodied recipients from the Glasgow office, in person, and on a weekly basis.  Free public transportation would be arranged (one way.)

Hopefully the EU would last long enough for the Scots with the generous humanitarian nature to break away from England and join it in a new referendum.

Able bodied UK residents who need a job could be put to work on the wall.  As we say here in the U.S., 'Good fences make good neighbors.'

Here is the solution: Allow only those Eastern Europeans who are ready to work. People who tend to over-exploit the welfare system must be deported back to their own countries. Also, unemployment benefits for EU citizens must be limited to 3 months. If they can't find a job after three months, then they should go back to Poland and Lithuania.

The UK has no intention of terminating the employment of any person working here legally. We need them to do the jobs that the idle unemployed remainers refuse to do.

And a stand still in the UK economy because 3 million workers have gone?

Dude you are retarded.

The European Union needs the UK more than the latter needs the EU. The Germans failed to realize this fact, and that is the reason why the Brexit occurred. Some 3 million EU citizens are working in the United Kingdom (40% of that amount from Poland), and if the UK suddenly decides to terminate their employment then there will be mass unrest in the Eastern EU nations.

Image is from 2002, but it shows there is no world peace.

Two years from now I think the end result is that Britain will have the benefits of free trade with the Continent without the political interference. It's a win for the rest of the EU as well for it will encourage the remaining members to limit supra-national usurpation of sovereignty.

Why France is not on that list? More than 100 people have lost their lives in the recent terrorist attacks. Also, the US is not on the map despite the Orlando and San Bernardino attacks. And where is Belgium? Some 35 individuals lost their lives a few months ago, during the Brussels bombings. The map is very old and not updated.

It's over, the EU is a bunch of small welfare states getting money from germany,france and the uk and the biggest problem with the EU is it included too many different countries.

'This time'?  I've read an interesting thesis that the EU itself was more than anything a US invention and with the CIA being used as one of the tools to make it happen.  The primary goal was to simplify the negotiations/control over the region for the benefit of quasi-US power elite.

It was an interesting presentation, but I don't recall where I found it.  It sits in my current crop of hypothesis to explore as I try to understand the world going forward.

Brexit is a win against the International Zionism.

In fact, the USSR republics were far more independent than EU members. Just for example, some of USSR member states, like the Georgian SSR, had the de facto market economy under umbrella of socialist phraseology. EU states aren't allowed to do anything like that, they're forced to follow the orders of neo-marxist cult in the Brussels. The reason is simple, USSR was maintained to create a strong and powerful state, while the EU was born to assure destruction of european conservative values.

We need to be protected from the terrible Russians. It was an act of war for them to place their country so close to the US military bases.

There is no world peace (2002):


Maroon:  Major wars, 10,000+ deaths in current or past year
Red:  Wars, 1,000–9,999 deaths in current or past year
Orange: Minor conflicts, 100–999 deaths in current or past year
Yellow: Skirmishes and clashes, fewer than 100 deaths.

The European Union includes a military alliance.

After the Islamic State attacks, France avoided calling in NATO and rather decided to invoke this military alliance established between European Union members (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12001700/Nato-shunned-as-France-calls-on-EU-to-destroy-Islamic-State.html).

But on Europe military alliances, especially NATO, are seen as an extension of the US.

NATO is basically the US. To the Europeans mostly means: if they are attacked, the Americans will save them. If one of them is attacked short of blatant invasion, it will be mostly its and US problem. They'll give them their moral solidarity.

It was that what France found out after the attacks. The UK, after some hesitation, started bombing Daesh, and also the Netherlands, but little more happened.

The EU has some similarities to the USSR in terms of unelected bureaucrats, but that's where it ends. The USSR was corrupt to the core, run by COMMUNISTS, stoked fear and reigned with violence. The world still doesn't trust Russians because of this. The EU will do fine with or without the UK, but they really need to improve the politics because there is an unnecessary layer.

USSR fell, replaced by the EU.

Perhaps when the EU falls another socialist system will form. Perhaps this time with the help of the US.

Oh dear. Please don't confuse the EU and NATO

The US is the major force attemting to destroy world peace. Look at all the proxy wars they start. Their creation of ISIS. Their refusal to support Assad, and their constant provocation of more powerful countries like China and Russia.

They are allowing their country to disintegrate from within whilst they attempt manipulate the world for the enrichment of a few individuals

Is the European Union or Democracy necessary to keep peace on Europe (and the world, since a general war on Europe would probably be a world war)?

Not exactly. Only certain Europeans believe that they are responsible for their own security and for the peace on Europe.

The European politicians that proclaim that the end of the European Union would mean war on Europe are overstating their own importance.

The one that real keeps world peace (let's forget about the regional wars that they also create) is the United States and their pax americana.

It's the Americans that control Germany, Russia and China. This point doesn't even need much consideration. Just check their military bases and their military power in Europe and the world (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_military_bases).

They have so many bases or similar military installations on Germany (56!) that this country can be considered as still under American "occupation" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Army_installations_in_Germany).

Yes, the European Union and Democracy help. They avoid some frictions and assist controlling the ones that can't be avoided (I'm not going to comment directly on the so-called democratic pacifism: http://www.hoover.org/research/myth-democratic-pacifism).

But if we can learn a lesson from First World War is that peace can't be kept only because of economic ties.

This War was a trade (and economic) catastrophe, greater than Second War World, where international trade was already ruined by the 1929 crisis and never recovered to the levels of 1914 (https://ourworldindata.org/international-trade/).

During the July Crisis of 1914, when a general war was starting to look very likely, all European stock exchanges crashed like if there was no tomorrow, ending up being closed (https://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2007/0105_1015_1002.pdf; http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/august-1914-when-global-stock-markets-closed).

So, forget about economic and purely political ties as guarantees of peace.

Unless the European Union could create armed forces based on direct recruitment of the European citizens (it couldn't be based on troops from member States or it wouldn't be enough to control the powerful ones), it won't be any serious guarantee of peace.

But political unions like the European Union, usually, are temporary.

They are too unstable. Power it's too distributed, so their decision process is a nightmare. They can't function well.

If they don't develop to a full Federal State (like the American confederation of 1781 or the German Confederation of 1815) they end up being dissolved, irrelevant or limited to little more than trade unions (think on the Sweden–Norway, United Arab Republic or the Commonwealth of Independent States created by Russia with some former soviet countries).

It's seems now that the European Union won't have political will or conditions to develop into a Federal Union.

Its current prolonged economic crisis, the huge debt of almost all of their States, their demographic decadence, rising nationalism, xenophobia and popular resentment, all are pointing to a new financial/euro and political crisis that will have the power to destroy it or reduce it to little more than a trade union.

Super Mario (Draghi), who saved the euro on July 2012, will do his best again. But...

There is still a small hope that a few member states can use the brexit as a trigger to create more intense political ties between them. But the popular support for this movement is very doubtful.

Besides the French (29 May 2005) and Dutch (1 June 2005) referendums against the European Constitution (done still on favorable economic conditions), on 3 December 2015, the Danish voted on a referendum against giving more powers to the Union (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_European_Union_opt-out_referendum,_2015).

With disappointment, I'm starting to wonder if this brexit isn't going to be the first exit of many more (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/23/these-countries-could-be-next-if-britain-leaves-the-e-u/).

This new looming euro/debt/banking crisis has the potential to not only destroy the European Union as political entity, but it might also ruin some European Democracies.

No doubt, that won't affect the real guarantee of world peace: the pax americana (and its nuclear weapons).

But if someone like Trump won the American presidency, the pax americana could be in risk (http://www.newsweek.com/trump-isolationism-alarm-nationalism-liberalism-allies-realism-445630; http://www.newsweek.com/trump-will-withdraw-nato-world-455272).

And nuclear weapons are an effective, but dangerous, guarantee of peace. If they fail, we end down with an execution of MAD (mutual assured destruction).

This text is an exercise of futurology.

Futurology isn't anything special. We do it all the time on our life. The main function of science is precisely to show us the future.

When we enter a building, we made a prediction that it wouldn't collapse on us. This is a prediction based on the trust we have on the science underlying its construction.

The problem is that there are only a few "laws" that we can qualify as scientific (of course, only if we accept their probabilistic and not exact nature) on human scientific issues, like these ones.

So, you know the recommendations: never do a prediction; if you make the mistake of doing one, never put it on writing; if you even so do that, at least never add a date to the prediction. Therefore, I won't.

Actually, I'm hoping I'm very wrong.

The European Union might not be as important to peace as some people thinks, at least with the current structure. But if it could be converted into a federal state, the issues of State debt would be overcome and it would be a serious guarantee of peace.

But it seems the opportunity was lost on 2005 and there won't be another one.