Topic: BTC Adoption & HODL'ers Increase Yearly Rate and Halving in 2020. Poll! (Read 229 times)

What you could just have as a foundation is a conceptualization that bitcoin market price is quite associated to the adoption it has. Meaning to say that if there is a huge market adoption, huge market price could also be imparted and vise versa. If one people will just create multiple wallet address, it is not going to contribute to the entire development of the cryptocurrency at all. The real meaning of adoption is through unique people that will utilize bitcoin and cryptocurrency at the same time, will accumulate volume of it.

There is really no way you can tell whether the use of cryptocurrency is increasing or decreasing.
You can't really tell… I have done a similar research and I wasn't able to come up with anything at all.

There are lots of people creating addresses, just like me that's making use of a lot of Bitcoin and Ethereum addresses, ever since I started using and investing in Bitcoin I believe I must have created more than a hundred addresses lol. And it's not just addresses, I have also created accounts platforms like Blockchain, Coinbase, Xapo and a lot of them several times, so even if those platforms decides to come up with a number of people that makes use of cryptocurrency they are still going to be wrong.

I figure with bitcoin acting as a 'store of value' we will wait quite a few years for the business merchant part of this you state. My own view is Bitcoin will live/die or whatever

on the next 'economic downturn...ie recession'. Then we will know for sure if it is really as 'store of value' or just stuff people were speculating on and in HODL mode with

extra cash, when times were good.

Anyway, my bet is that Bitcoin is 'virtual land' and am 'accumulating' whatever 'dust' BTC I can before halving on this viewpoint. I'm out of ASIC mining, probably for good

with the halving coming up. So what 'acreage' I have in 'mass' is as much as I figure I can ever get, except for some 'dust' from now until the halving in 2020.

Who knows, but how I'm approaching all this for something to do in my otherwise 'boring' existence!

Brad

adoption is increasing and those who adopt bitcoin are mostly holding it as we aren't yet at mass adoption stage. but the problem with looking at the blockchain for that is you are just seeing data and you can interpret it anyway you like. for example if you see 10 unspent txs they may all belong to an exchange cold storage which has nothing to do with HODL. or if you see 1 output moving every 3 months it may still belong to a HODLer who is moving it for whatever reason such as spending the shitcoin airdrops but still HODLing the bitcoin itself.
so there will always be a certain level of mistake in this kind of analysis such as the one first link is doing.

as for better link, i'm afraid i don't have any. as i said i believe in "merchant adoption" more than "investor adoption" and measuring the former is very hard. all the information we can get comes from payment processors such as Bitpay's annual reports and that shows a huge increase in adoption specially during years where there is a big price rise.

I'm getting any 'dust' BTC I can now. It is not so much the price of BTC as the fact you are getting BTC before the next halving IMHO.

Thus if these 3 premises are correct, in my view anyway, how I'm approaching this. I also am in full ASIC not big miner any more withdrawal, so it keeps me busy.

1) HODL'ing is stable and or increasing.

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/binance-research-indicates-hodling-bitcoin-is-the-most-effective-strategy-to-increasing-profits/

2) Adoption is stable and increasing.

https://www.cryptopolitan.com/cryptocurrency-and-bitcoin-mass-adoption-is-increasing-in-2019-data-report/

3) Bitcoin halving in 2020. As of today, it is almost exactly 1/2 year away!

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ 162 days 3hrs and 9 min and 30 seconds as of this post.

Anyway, how I'm approaching this.

Brad

what is some better ways to look at adoption or are they all 'flawed'? I assume the wallets not moving stats are more or less legit on the HODL part of this thread.

Anyway to find out 'legit' on adoption kinda/sorta? links?

Again, the premise is IF 1) HODL'ing has maintained or increased 2) Adoption has increased 3) halving is coming 2020, well these all have to conspire to drive the price up

I'd think in a big way. If not now at least in the hear 2020 after halving?

Anyway, looking for legit data on my 'dubious' conclusions, be sure to toss some links up here.

off the cuff though, I mean really IF the above 3 things are kinda in synch and increasing...I should be grabbing as much 'dust' BTC as I can till after halving as I can pull off

I'd think. Then again the BTC/Crypto Kool-Aid I drank in 2013 is still coursing through my system and even though I'm not mining in mass anymore I also have a pretty

good ASIC addiction withdrawal going on...so it could all be unicorn farts/rainbows/and beanie baby dreams. Just saying.

Brad

I won't agree 100% with using wallets with UTXO as a means of checking mass adoption. You know part of this wallet may include lost private, or maybe the person in charge of the wallet is dead, sick or something, and also, some people are known for having multiple wallets addresses.

The timestamps are indeed pretty damn weird to draw a general conclusion and not blame it on a single event.
The number of bitcoins untouched for 12 months went by 600k in a week, but...the amount fo bitcoins not touched for 18-24 months went down! and there was no change for between 1 to 6 months.

It makes me wonder if it's not caused by some cold wallets have just passed 6 months since they were moved.

Also one thing from the second article:


No shit sherlock....
We're mining 1800BTC a day, 600k a year, those have to go somewhere!!! Or stay somewhere which is basically the same!

considering that the article is talking about the past 12 months and the fact that price has reached the bottom exactly 12 months ago and the accumulation phase which lasted multiple months (price in $3k range) it is obvious that there is a big number of UTXOs that were created at least that long ago and are untouched. it was an excellent entry point.
i don't think it shows increase in adoption as much as you think it does. it is indicating adoption increase but since it coincides with the bottom the increase is intensified.


i think we should define adoption as more merchants accepting bitcoin and more transactions taking place not more hodlers and less transactions!
and if you ask me, that is the only reason why price goes up.

all that said, i believe that the adoption is increasing well enough. i don't have any charts or data to back it up, it is just my observation as i see more and more people talking about bitcoin, i see shops that i didn't even imagined are accepting bitcoin,...
with the halving coming, and the hype it brings we should see a big rise at first and as the supply creation rate cuts down by 50% it should boost the rise up big time. this time it may even be a lot bigger than previous 2 times as this time the adoption is growing at a faster speed.

Well, Bitcoin Hodlers increasing could be ambiguous in the sense that many addresses could be created not by noobs but by those already in. So unless we have a digested data on that we can't be sure about how good it is.

Adoption increasing on the other hand is something interesting. Adoption is adoption (literally😀), but the article you cited also didn't provide many significant reasons why adoption is spiking (well, to me...). The only thing I saw is that it's also referring back to the fact that new addresses are being created, holding more BTC and search interest spiked which may not be adoption (as i deem it to be👍)

But well, lastly, Bitcoin will have a sweet halving aftermath. My reason being that, many others are playing the "watch-and-wait" game and they'll hop and troop in when things start to go well.

Reserved.

This topic may go no place. But I was thinking, I found the below link on the % of HODL'ers are increasing.

https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-not-moved-for-12-months-sees-51-increase/

This got me thinking about Adoption rates per year. IS BTC Adoption increasing and if so what data is there on this?

https://www.cryptopolitan.com/cryptocurrency-and-bitcoin-mass-adoption-is-increasing-in-2019-data-report/

Ok..so with the above links I've found 2 links that state that HODL'ing is increasing and Adoption is increasing.

Now when you add my third part in the title of this thread : Halving in 2020.

Where does that put us as far as pricing in the future?

So it seems to me if the above 3 items are indeed correct. Whales are HODL'ing and accumulating...Adoption is still happening at an OK pace

and Halving next year in 2020...All should be great right?

Anyway, I started this thread for discussion and folks with better google skills and hopefully math skills to flesh this out in a more logical manner.

Hell, there is probably a 'site' and graphs etc with all my above 'impressions' on this very topic.

Anyway, if there is a better thread or site on the above three senarios put the links here.

Anyway, hopefully, some folk with better skills than myself with the above 'supposeded' correct data can run with this and see if it offers any info on

the future price/use/etc for BTC.

I just tripped over the first 2 links above and went huh? I wonder if there is someone who has looked at this historically and/or towards the future

with the above BTC Adoption & HODL'ers Increase Yearly Rate and Halving 2020...in mind.

Please feel free to do better analysis and post on here in more depth than me and consider taking the poll!

later

Brad