Topic: BTC ATH ~~~ (Read 527 times)

I think the next halving will be the last one and will mark the end of the 4-year cycle pattern. The following ones will still have some effect, but they won't be the major catalyst for the bull runs. I expect Bitcoin to become less volatile and start acting more like traditional assets. It could deter a lot of the retail investors hoping for crazy gains in a short time, but with all the spot ETFs approved, there should be more than enough demand to compensate for it.

As much as ETFs becoming the major factor impacting the market is not necessarily a good thing, Bitcoin becoming more stable probably is. It could become more appealing to more risk-averse investors, who are looking for something closer to a reliable store of value, rather than a highly speculative and volatile instrument.

Bitcoin has so far shown close symmetry through its four year halving cycles. That may not continue forever but whilst the miners block reward is still quite significant, I think that halving it will continue to cause supply shock which will reflect in the price.



I mean for example, as we head to 2040, that type of supply halving may not cause as much of a price rise as the 2024 halving will have.

I certainly believe that for at least another three cycles we will see history repeat and significant all time highs will happen 12-18 months after the halving.

Eventually the halving will have less of an effect on the price, Bitcoin will be a more mature asset and less volatile.
Embrace the volatility whilst it is here though, it is your friend, if you know what you’re doing.

Which is a good sign because that means that if that's how the pattern of bitcoin works then that means that you can always be sure that you're going to have enough time to accumulate for yourself and get yourself a nice and healthy profit when bitcoin reaches another all time high. Hopefully that's going to be the case, that the ATH would happen next year but given the volatility of bitcoin, I think that we're still going to need to be prepared for the unexpected to happen, keep a healthy stash of fiat in case you need to buy more bitcoin if the price turns for the worse.

First off this is the first ½ ing that is not a true ½ .

In the month of December 2023 we did around 3.5 coins a block fee.

so 6.25+3.5= 9.25 coins a block

after the so called ½ ing. 3.125+3.5= 6.625 coins a block


thus 6.625/9.25= over 70%

so rather than 50-52%

it has been shown the 70% is possible for a month.

we may not see a real ½ ing ever again.

better than that the 2024 will be worse.

and there is the ETF to think about.


I am thinking this is new and old charts may not fit.

Time will tell.  I see bad  under 70k or really good over 200k. by april 2025

It is possible that this will change now, because it does not rule out the possibility that ATH could occur more quickly after the halving occurs this year. I think there is nothing wrong with thinking that the ATH could happen earlier and not as usual, although many people still look at past guidelines for this. Because ATH occurs when a large increase is seen again in the market and it could also be quite possible to see it earlier before one year after the halving this year.

I do hope that we are going to break that ATH price and go beyond it. We are just on the verge of something and it should definitely be considered a possibility that we could see higher price.

We just need to wait for it, I believe that we still have about a year for that, we are going to see the price go up this year without a doubt but I do not think that it will go above the all time high just yet, this year it will be just higher, something that would be over fifty thousand is reasonable expectation because we already got close to it once, and I think something closer to sixty thousand will be the likely result. After that, it is anyone's guess what is going to happen, we do not really know what is going to really happen if you ask me.

I also expect the ATH to happen again as the optimism is higher and it will get to a level where FOMO will resume, and this time, it will be more than the initial that happened last year, it might see Bitcoin easily launching towards $50,000, after which it will journey higher to hit around $69,000 and more. But you should not separate halving and demand of Bitcoin, the two work hand in hand. What could have been helping Bitcoin to move higher in successive post-halving periods if not for the demands? The gist is that halving is a Bitcoin tradition that people have attributed importance to, and this importance is always causing people to believe the price of Bitcoin would rise with every halving thereby forcing the demand into the market.

This will always cause FOMO which will in turn increase the demand for Bitcoin and will result in the rapid price movement and increase in a short time possible. The two are not just separable the way you painted them, and the only issue we can have this time is when a piece of external bad news or much of it breaks out for Bitcoin. That will now be a big factor that can undermine the halving and the demand it always attracts to Bitcoin. However, you made very good cautious remarks with the concluding part, nothing is 100% predictable in the market, we should do our bit and leave the rest, but must be using the right managerial system for us to outsmart the conditions caused by the uncertainty of the market.

the price of bitcoin will always reach the new ATH price not in the year of halving. but 1 year after halving or in 2025 the price of bitcoin will touch its latest ATH price.
if 2024 the bitcoin price movement will still be the same normal up and down. and will not reach its latest ATH price.

True, it's because Bitcoin is deflationary as well that's why the drop of percentage in every 4 year cycle. And thanks to your math, and that's where the price is around as the majority is predicting $100,000 conservative estimates.

And for those who think this is bad think again, you can still make huge profits if you just go and buy during the dip and HODL for a long time. And that's why many of us here became millionaires, that kind of mindset to look long term and not just sell because we panic.

So a new all time high could start at 6 digits and then everything goes as where the price will be in 2025.

I would say don’t follow any pattern or luck, just play on stats. Make yourself well equipped with the Bitcoins history. We know that Bitcoins are limited in numbers, we also know that day by day the demand to acquire Bitcoins are increasing. Now if we apply simple economics, we know that whenever the commodity supply is low and demand is high, the price of the commodity goes up to fulfil the demand. Hence Bitcoins are bound to go up. So accordingly choose and invest.

No bro, you shouldn't trust any pattern for too long, I will only advise you to stay alert and act as the market brings it to you. Just be speculative and you will be fine. Similarly, as I advised in my last replies, it is a good thing we know what we are doing and not be a blind follower, even if it is a pattern, it can deviate, so it will be smart if we are well-guarded from the beginning so that it will not become an issue later for us. Fine, Bitcoin will rise and has had such an encouraging old pattern of outstanding rise, I will never doubt that, and this time, it might rise far higher than the current ATH, but it making an outstanding big move like the old way where multiple gains of the coin would happen might not happen again.

The buy could be sizable enough but will be practical this time as the coin is now more accountable and will behave more like a real market unlike before when it was being controlled by whales and some sectional investors anyhow. It is now being controlled more by institutions, which makes it more possible that it will not have a huge growth especially this time that the size is already heavy. So anyone thinking that it will move x10 or there about should wake up to the reality. I hope we can discuss this conservation again in the next 1 and 1/2 years.

Yeah, and there was also a pattern like 2.x-2.5x of the last all time high, so if we do the numbers, against the most recent ATH of $69k, it will be like $140k. But we will see first, I know it's kinda exciting to see this price predicting, but who knows, we could exceed that or be on a ATH of $120k. But still a very modest price for 204-2025 bull run and for sure everyone's will be happy seeing our portfolio.

The $100k prediction though last bull run was really off, but we obviously have that in mind because of this so called modelling prediction, S2F. But now no one is talking about it because it didn't work the last time. However, we should be looking like 6 digits now and it seems to be doable now.

Well no, inflation won't do "whatever". It will drop in half every 4 years as Bitcoin is programmed to do, that is very much a constant among the speculation. I don't doubt that there will be a new ATH after the halving this year, my point was that this isn't a guarantee and there are arguments that this dynamic of post-halving ATH won't last forever, whether it takes 10 or 100 years to no longer be relevant. For example, when inflation is only 0.2%, then drops to 0.1%, is that still going to be significant? To me, it seems a lot less significant than dropping from the current 1.69% to 0.84%.

As bitcoin investors, we all expect it to happen and it will always happen but the future is something no one can predict, so when talking about the future, don't be 100% sure or confirm anything. For bitcoin to increase in price, we need many factors, not just the halving. For example, even if bitcoin is increasingly scarce but the demand for it does not increase, how can the price increase? And there are many factors from micro to macro that will impact bitcoin, so always have a plan B, don't be too subjective because the future is unpredictable. History will always repeat until there is a new history, and nothing is forever.

With the current anticipation of a bull run after the next halving it's expected that Bitcoin gets to a new ATH just like it has done over the years after every bull run Market, it has always record successive scallig up beyond the previous highs to a new one so very likely this period may not be an exception especially with the news of the ETF approval which of course is one of the biggest anticipation of Bitcoin enthusiast over the years, this will mean a lot to Bitcoin investors as it will help their confidence and all this will further add to the price movement of bit now and even in the nearest future.

A new ATH that will surpass the successive previous ATH's  is possible and very much anticipated.

Inflation could do whatever, we are going to have halving and the price will go up because of it, it's that simple. Just because it may not right away, doesn't mean it's not related neither. Look at the history of bitcoin, you will see that a year after the halving it has always found a new peak, a new ATH price. I do believe that it will be same. I can guarantee you that at some point in 2025 we are going to have something over 68k for sure, it's inevitable and it will happen.

This is at least how I invest, I invest according to this, and I believe it will happen, but that's just my guess, maybe I am right, or maybe I am wrong, if I am right I will make money and if I am wrong then I am going to lose money, but I am willing to invest into this idea.

Everyone is doing various speculations, we can see and be aware of the Bitcoin ATH that has occurred every four years, where we can find the highest price from several aspects and views.

Everyone probably hopes for ATH this year, we all hope that something new can happen, at least there will be changes that occur in Bitcoin reaching the $100k level, maybe that is all of our hopes for the future.

The reality is, no one really knows. The effects of the halving are expected to have less an effect on the market overall, as the inflation continues to drop in half. However this somewhat overlooks the fact that increased usage in Bitcoin (which is also projected) is already started to cause transaction fees for miners to outperform block rewards, so potentially the inverse could also be true to some degree (or balance out at least). Even though transaction fees aren't inflation, the miner rewards are still largely attributed to the overall selling pressure / supply dynamics, as miners have to sell coins to cover costs.

The only theory that is 100% correct, is that a new ATH has always occurred after the halving, which will remain true until this is no longer the case

The prediction of a price of $100K, which was proclaimed by many analysts to happen in 2021, did not come true, and beyond the very high expectations, it ended up being ATH $68,789, and this is clearly only 2/3 of the analysis that has been believed, but perhaps for the coming period, I think I agree that if it is for $100K, it will be achievable, and it will probably be realized this year before it will form a renewable ATH, which can be guaranteed. Even if it is only 2x the previous ATH, it will be achievable at $130K-$140K.
ETF will certainly provide encouragement for the contribution of trust that can be given, and this could be momentum for more confidence in the development of Bitcoin itself. To be able to make a big contribution, we believe that every time there is an update, it will always lead to improvements in the future.

The high following the 2012 halving was $1,242
The high following the 2016 halving was $19,700 - this is 15.9x the 2012 halving high
The high following the 2020 halving was $69,900 - this is 3.5x the 2016 halving high

As you can see the multiplier got smaller from 2016 to 2020. If it continues to reduce in the same way then the 2024 post-halving high is not likely to be more than 1.5-2.0x the 2020 high.  So on that basis somewhere between $105k and $140k.

My view is that we can't actually extrapolate with any accuracy from only a few data points, but see the thread I linked above for a longer discussion comparing the halvings.

I don't quite get the calculation very well can you explain better please

But we can also notice that each time, the growth % in ATH since the previous one drops significantly. Which is kind of obvious but still worth noting, as there are still people out there hoping for x100 or more in the net cycle just because it happened in the past.
The 2017 ATH was a whooping 1,710% higher than the 2013 top, but 2021 one was "only" 346% higher than 2017 ATH. That's x5 drop.
A x5 drop to the previous 346% means a 69% increase, so around $116k.

We can believe on this because sometimes it can happen and sometimes not. So the goal is not only to expect too much. It's hard when you are heavily attached on to something. It may cause you a bad feeling if in case the thing that you are hoping for don't come into reality.

On your explanation, it is seems you believe on the cycle or in the phrase " history repeats itself ", because you bought last year thinking BTC will pump. If you bought at the beginning you are still profiting even though I say that a real pump didn't happened yet. The reason why BTC can rise or possibly pump up before the halving is because people are FOMOing for it. They are too excited for the event.

To me, the $120k ATH target is a pretty conservative prediction for bitcoin this bull season. From events like the ETF, the world economy entering a post-crisis recovery phase, halving...all these events will create a super cycle for us and bitcoin could reach 180k-200k$ this time, IMO.
It can be said that the goal of 100k USD is a goal that we have been pursuing for many years and had high expectations during the 2021 bull season, but in the end, it did not happen. But for this bull season, $100k is a fairly modest target as bitcoin's most recent ATH was $69k.

A conservative prediction of $120,000 as a new all time high seems bullish. I'm not as bullish but I'm almost sure that $100,000 will be reached within this year or next year. But I agree with you that a bullish sentiment doesn't necessarily mean that the market will indeed turn like it. It happened in the past. There was a time everybody was wearing laser eyes because everybody was expected that $100,000 is about to come. It didn't.

But Bitcoin is best if your game is hodling and waiting.

Yes, it's the pattern that hasn't been broken, so expect a bull run this year up to 2025, what could be the new all time high, anybody guess but I will speculate around $120k at least, conservative. Also, this has been discussed before, there are some pundits who think that we will see super cycles or bull runs in a different cycle, but so far that theory has been proven false already.

So just sit back and relax, we might be on for something big as this will be the first time that we might touch 6 digits. And also remember that we have the Bitcoin ETF's that has been taking the news as of late and this could really help the price to push to $100k at least.

Well if the pattern holds true, then we can say that it will be always like that? Remember that every 4 years we have this halving and this is the catalyst. So for me this will continue and I don't think that it's going to break unless there is a drastic change in Bitcoin economy.

So 2024-2025 will still be a bull run, it's just a question on what will be our new all time high.

Prediction is that it will be in 6 digits. And as high as $180,000 - $220,000, but we will have to see. So exciting times ahead for being a Bitcoin enthusiast as this is what we all have been waiting for, block halving - > bull run - ? new all time high.

This is exactly why I keep saying that 2025 will be the real bull year. I have seen it happen three times now, and I think the fourth will be exactly the same as well, there is really no tangible reason why it would be any different, I get that it may "feel" different this time around, and I agree that the feeling is different because we are much higher right now and that's why it feels a little different, but the reality is that we are ending up with something that should not be all that easy to handle.

We need to end up with something that should not be all that smart, it should not be considered to be all that crazy neither, it's just a historical data, we will see it be greater next year, and just go up decently this year.

That's the pattern. That's the 4-year cycle. So there's a reason to believe that the same might once again happen. However that is never an assurance. What happened in the past, even if a number of times already, therefore creating a pattern, might not happen again. So there is always another possibility of it not happening once again. But I think it will happen at least once more. I am almost certain that a new ATH will be reached within 2024 or early 2025.

We just continue hodling. What is certain is that the ATH which was reached way back in November of 2021 will never remain an ATH forever.

Yep, there's nothing to believe in this. This is also another reason why I started to accumulate Bitcoin last year.
I looked up all the previous Bitcoin block halvings too and most of it just repeats itself.
So for me, I am expecting a new all-time high before the Bitcoin block halving.

You're right, cycle here is define as every 4 years after the halving, we might see a bull run and new all time high. And this cycle still holds true up to this point so we can say that this year after the halving we might see a massive bull run again till next year 2025.

Currently with the news of a approval of Bitcoin ETF the price or at least the sentiments of the market is already very bullish, just in the last 24 hours, the price keeps going up to $46k and higher. So let's see how far this goes before the halving, who knows, maybe at April we might see or close to our previous all time high of $69k and then the prediction for the next high is at least 6 digits.

Cycles repeat themselves over and over, with each turn kinda resembling the one before.  But that don't mean they got to go on forever.  Cycles can stop, and they can change too as time passes.  From everything we've seen so far, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is becoming less pronounced with each new turn, so I believe that this cycle will stop over time, or maybe shift so that in the future we'll have a bull run right before the halving, or something like that.

I think the pattern is true that every halving will definitely be ATH, but we never know how the future will be but ATH will still exist because the cycle will remain the same as before. That's my own opinion how bitcoin will remain an all-time record.

Is there anyone skeptical about this, I don't think so much because investors know how bitcoin behavior has always set records in 5 years or per halving what I mentioned, this is just speculation others are the same no more than that so just be optimistic, we see the right time next year how bitcoin price movements whether ATH or NOT.

I discussed exactly this topic, in this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58647849

Yeah I saw it too, I think he's talking in  term of ATH but at the same time, ATH levelling out should mean BTC becoming stable and much more less volatile and I don't think there  will be a possibility for that.
The other way round is Bitcoin taking the same pattern for years of halving maybe......

I'm  curious about the word "cycle" does this means an endless loop (forever).

Really boss,  what do you mean by leveling out eventually?

Am kind of confuse because with recent happenings in term of Bitcoin adoption and the present price compared to that of those years back when bitcoin did the 20x or 45x I believe in 2014-2019 $400-$18k but not from 2018 till date Bitcoin touched 69k and currently at 42k+ which is significantly a good price for bitcoin at the moment,  so levelling out do you mean when bitcoin eventually become more stable in term of volatilities?

I agree with that synopsis, you could almost compare the reducing growth after the halving
to the idea that as Bitcoin ages and is accepted and used by more people with greater
knowledge the volatility reduces also. That is the same idea as the ATH following the halving
being less dramatic.

So yes the ATH should continue following the halving but there is a chance that it gets
to the point where there is so little volatility that there would not be a newer ATH perhaps

Why not? Although there is no exact correlation yet but history will continue to carve, I don't see how an expert says there will be no more ATH after this halving, but the facts say ATH will be much bigger because they believe bitcoin has now affected the world economy.

I just want to say my own opinion that the next ATH will still happen and often say $100K is still reasonable, I am not skeptical about it but just a sense of optimism that bitcoin will be higher for longer.

We won't say accurately even though it's not certain, just be confident that ATH will be encountered again.

You can go on and do justice to that 

The circle is like a tradition that has repeatedly occurred in previous time's and the inclination is that a reiteration of the circle is more than certain.

We are all making speculations about the price in the hope that the next ATH after the halving will hit a significant price level, the high expectations from investors on the next bitcoin ATH is sparked by the awaiting bitcoin ETF approval which the SEC has been delaying for no just cause.  However when the ETF finally get approved the price of bitcoin will definitely spike up to an altitude that investors will be more than happy about and a lot of them will not resist the urge to sell and take profit even before the ATH.

We have seen Bitcoins follow the history. This has become very obvious that when we will see the next ATH price if this history is followed again. I mean it’s not late to invest in the coin. If we buy also at current price, then in the next ATH price we can make 2-3x profit. We just need to wait patiently, and believe in the coins. When Bitcoins have fell in price, then in the next moment it has gone very hope. So let’s hope for the same this time also.

I believer this "cycle" will continue for a bunch of more halvings because it is still supply rate reduction by 50% and the effects of it on the market is significant enough to tip the balance in favor of a big rise. For example in the coming halving the reward will drop from 900 bitcoins per day to 450 which means the miners will have 450 less bitcoins to sell daily. That is still a huge reduction. Less sell pressure means bigger rise.

Wow! seeing this for the first time though you made it clear from the condition  statement.


Well i don't really see a major difference to other halvings as there's always an ATH  but we are in the 2024 halving period, I don't know if the mempool had been this congested before   I think this should also be considered.

I once asked a question based on the effect of ETF dissaprova because  I saw that there are many a lot of investor waiting for the ETF approval and they believe this will really spike the price of Bitcoin . I got a reply that even if there's is no ETF approval there should still be a bull run.
Why I'm  I saying  this ?? I don't know if the previous halving has been related to ETF but I'm just curious if it's possible for the ATH not surpassing the previous 1

There’s no such thing as continuous pattern BUT this pattern you brought about Bitcoin Halving and ATH has basis that’s why it comes up with that pattern. I believe it might move on same manner but with lesser growth in the future since the price is already discovered compared when the earlier date which only few investors already entered.

Now that institutional investors and other whale traders already weigh in, it will be very hard to have strong fluctuations like before because this whales will surely take profit and continuously trade the price.

Indeed, every time a halving occurs, there will be a correction because miners get the reward and take advantage by throwing away the bitcoins they get. Including several investors who bought in the bearish season, targeting the halving to be one of their bitcoin sales schedules to make a profit.

This cycle will always repeat itself because polarization is like the polarization that has become a culture in the bitcoin cycle, there will definitely be indicators that support bitcoin experiencing a decline at times like that and then there will be more indicators that make bitcoin experience a significant increase and hit the monthly ATH consecutively until the end of the ATH in this cycle.

Nothing is sustainable forever.

The capacity of growth an industry has is correlative to how much wiggle room there is or how much money can sustainably be moved into it. We can already see reduction in how much growth there is in the Bitcoin market over the last 5 years;

• From 2019 to date
The price has gone from ~$3.5k to $67k
That's approximately ×20

• From 2014 to 2019
The price went from ~$400 to $18k
This is approximately ×45

If the trend continues we should be having lower and lower price increases until it levels out eventually.

Why didn't you complete the table. It is 2024 already!


No one can predict that in advance. But if history repeats itself, we can expect anywhere between 100-300% price performance this year. I'd be more than happy with that.

It's just correlation, not causation. What's more, there is also a thesis (although this is a less popular approach) describes bitcoin's growth cycles after the presidential elections (which, surprise, also happen every 4 years).


Every 4 Years a President Is Elected and Bitcoin Moons

I have another one. Mars moves in 4-year cycles. And the dates when it was closest to the earth meant a mega bitcoin rally.





Correlation is not causation. Bitcoin has a loose correlation with halving as well as with elections or distance from Mars. there is no evidence that there is any causality behind this, and if we are talking about a decreasing supplyafter the halving(rewards split by half), this fact has already a negligible value. because the first halving reduced inflation from 25% to 12% and the current one from 1.5% to 0.8%

In the chart you have shown, I can see that there has been a surge in the price of Bitcoin in the 365 days following the completion of the three halvings in the past. As we reach 2024 and will see Bitcoin halving for the fourth time. Around the 2024 halving I am optimistic that Bitcoin will surpass its ATH. Bitcoin has been hovering between $42k and $45k for quite some time now. If the price of Bitcoin remains stable up to the moment before the halving, then just from personal thought, the price of Bitcoin after the halving could be between $85k and $95k.

From the chart you’ve provided it shows clearly how bitcoin makes a new all time high the following year after halving. The market still remain in a speculative state as people are not still sure when the next bull run will occur even the halving will happen in April, 2024. It was only after 2016 halving that the price didn’t have a low price impact before the 2020 halving. If you check the previous halving in 2012, at 2016 halving, the price went below the all time high that it was in 2013 after the halving before marking a new bull run in 2017. But in 2020 halving, the price was already ahead of the all time high price of bitcoin in 2017. Let’s see maybe by new halving, the current price of bitcoin at the time will be below or above the current all time high before another bull run takes place.

if you look at the history of the price of bitcoin, every time halving occurs the price of bitcoin goes down.
but one year later there is a new ATH from the price of bitcoin.
means 2024 should be a little careful if you look at the history then the price of bitcoin will go down first.
even though the decline was only a price correction. not a sharp price drop aka crash

You raise an intriguing point about Bitcoin's price potentially surging as early as 2024 after the next halving.  Historically, we've seen sizable price increases in the years following previous halvings.  However, precisely predicting if or when such a spike might occur is tricky business and  a lot likely depends on broader crypto adoption and regulation trends, and economic conditions over the next couple years.  But you've gotten me curious now too about what potential catalysts could drive an earlier surge.  What specifically are you seeing that makes 2024 seem like a pivotal year in your eyes?

One thing to note here is that the halving started from 2012, and the halving years were 2012,2016,2020 if you notice the year that Bitcoin was. The price of Bitcoin did not go up that year, it went up later that is in 2013, 2017, 2021, the price of Bitcoin increased much more than the price in the halving year. I predict 2024 that Bitcoin will touch around 50000 during halving in 2024. And in 2025, i.e. the year after the halving, I think the price of Bitcoin will definitely cross 1 hundred thousand dollars.

Let's just keep guessing and speculating what the next all-time high bitcoin price will be,  but from the chart shared and based on history it is best to expect an all-time high price some six to nine months after each halving,  and this time may not be different.

But what price the next all-time high will record is what has been unclear to us and remains at a speculative level up until now.

This post is going to be  short because I'm posting to make enquiries based on the Halving.

The image below shows a table representation of price History for BTC



Color code

|   Red:    Halving |

|   Blue:   ATH      |


We could all notice that archieved ATHs after a particular Halving surpasses their previous ATH and normally, the long overview chart for the whole BTC price movement is an uptrend..

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.