Topic: BTC Bull Trap – Is the post-Fed crypto rally over? (Read 78 times)
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legendary
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Some time in July, a user on this forum made a post, asking if the rally bitcoin was experiencing at that time was a sign that bitcoin has finally break free from bear market and now in bull season, or was the rally a bull trap?.
I commented on that post saying that I think the rally was more of a bull trap than it is a bull season.
Bitcoin and major altcoins have started August on a cautious note. Could lower levels attract buyers and resume the recovery in the next few days?
There wil always be buyers at every level bitcoin is, I think the appropriate question should be, will this buyers be enough to trigger a bull season?
I think the current market condition shouldn't really be a problem to those that are or have invested in bitcoin for long term, we all that bitcoin isn't done yet with creating new ATHs, there will definitely be something that will trigger the rally that will take bitcoin to a new all time high, this trigger can come from the Feds hiking interest rate even more, it can come from any where, till then, as a trader, just learn to ride the waves and use the currents market highs and lows to your advantage.
I commented on that post saying that I think the rally was more of a bull trap than it is a bull season.
Bitcoin and major altcoins have started August on a cautious note. Could lower levels attract buyers and resume the recovery in the next few days?
I think the current market condition shouldn't really be a problem to those that are or have invested in bitcoin for long term, we all that bitcoin isn't done yet with creating new ATHs, there will definitely be something that will trigger the rally that will take bitcoin to a new all time high, this trigger can come from the Feds hiking interest rate even more, it can come from any where, till then, as a trader, just learn to ride the waves and use the currents market highs and lows to your advantage.
It is not overrated at all. The connection is that if there are people who are willing to withdraw their money from stock markets, gold, oil, and whatever else along with crypto that sends a message. It means that people are withdrawing money from the markets and they are putting it on savings accounts basically, or treasury or anything like that.
This means that it makes sense for crypto prices to drop when there are all those people withdrawing their money on ALL markets. Seems like fed is not going to do something marginal like that anytime soon, or at least it is not expected to happen anytime soon. This means that rally could be over and we could take a look at the current situation as a better thing.
A rate hike is like trying to extinguish the fire with a bucket of water, when you have no idea about the fire's magnitude.
The relation between the two is indeed overrated.
You are right about the sentiment controlling the market. But again, fed wouldn't really want to hurt the public through one of their meeting. As that would be exactly opposite of their intended job.
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Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in a tweet on July 29 that “Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s “meeting by meeting” comment may mark the pivot for Bitcoin” to outperform most assets.
He's talking like only the US economy decides the fate of bitcoin. There's no other markets around the world and this Jerome dude is going to be telling us what to do with our money in Europe, Asia, Africa... All of those people is going to sell because Jerome says so and buy when Jerome stops pumping the dollar, even though they don't have any dollars.
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Glassnode cited several on-chain metrics and said in the weekly on-chain newsletter titled “Beginnings of a Bear Market Rally” that the rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum is not supported by strong transactional demand and “this rally has not yet seen a convincing follow through in observable demand activity.”
In early Spring, Glassnode was talking about a large accumulation from investors and a possible bottom at 40k, above the 2021 30k bottom. They were pointing at possible higher high after that bottom.
Unfortunately they did not foresee the war in Ukraine and the Luna bankruptcy. They also did not expect Tesla to sell and so on.
Bottom line, the price doesn't move because glassnode or some bloomberg analyst sees a pattern. It moves because a lot of people come and buy and this doesn't have to be a gradual increase, just like the drop from 40k wasn't a gradual decrease. It just happened one day and nobody was able to write a piece about it before it happened.
Bitcoin linkage with Fed meetings is always overrated! Don't forget that Bitcoin had been on the bullish track before the July minute of the Fed, so Fed's decision might be overhyped by people. I will always say that Bitcoin is primarily driven by the market sentiment rather than the Fed's interest rate hike in July.
Try to study the past histories of the Fed's decisions on interest rate cuts or hikes, they usually have different impacts on Bitcoin. This gives me the opinion that investors control the market now. However, Bulls might gain control if Bitcoin closes today above 23200. Else, more dip is expected.
It is not overrated at all. The connection is that if there are people who are willing to withdraw their money from stock markets, gold, oil, and whatever else along with crypto that sends a message. It means that people are withdrawing money from the markets and they are putting it on savings accounts basically, or treasury or anything like that.Try to study the past histories of the Fed's decisions on interest rate cuts or hikes, they usually have different impacts on Bitcoin. This gives me the opinion that investors control the market now. However, Bulls might gain control if Bitcoin closes today above 23200. Else, more dip is expected.
This means that it makes sense for crypto prices to drop when there are all those people withdrawing their money on ALL markets. Seems like fed is not going to do something marginal like that anytime soon, or at least it is not expected to happen anytime soon. This means that rally could be over and we could take a look at the current situation as a better thing.
Bitcoin linkage with Fed meetings is always overrated! Don't forget that Bitcoin had been on the bullish track before the July minute of the Fed, so Fed's decision might be overhyped by people. I will always say that Bitcoin is primarily driven by the market sentiment rather than the Fed's interest rate hike in July.
Try to study the past histories of the Fed's decisions on interest rate cuts or hikes, they usually have different impacts on Bitcoin. This gives me the opinion that investors control the market now. However, Bulls might gain control if Bitcoin closes today above 23200. Else, more dip is expected.
Try to study the past histories of the Fed's decisions on interest rate cuts or hikes, they usually have different impacts on Bitcoin. This gives me the opinion that investors control the market now. However, Bulls might gain control if Bitcoin closes today above 23200. Else, more dip is expected.
BTC Bull Trap – Is the post-Fed crypto rally over?
Bitcoin and the crypto sector received a boost after the United States Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75 basis points on July 27 but Chairman Jerome Powell said that future rate hikes will be decided based on the economic data points and the outlook for the eonomy. With the next Fed meeting only in September, traders will focus on various economic data that will be released in August. Traders expect that softening data may slow down the pace of rate hikes in the future.
After three consecutive negative monthly closes, Bitcoin made a comeback in July with a 16.8% gain, according to Coinglass data. In comparison, Ether had much better performance as it rallied more than 56% during the same period. This indicated that investors may have started accumulating at lower levels, anticipating that a bottom may be in place.
Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in a tweet on July 29 that “Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s “meeting by meeting” comment may mark the pivot for Bitcoin” to outperform most assets. In another tweet on July 31, McGlone said that Bitcoin may be on track to recover from the “steepest discount” to the 100- and 200-week moving averages. He added that the risk-to-reward ratio may be “tilted favourably for one of the greatest bull markets in history.”
However, not everyone is convinced that a bottom has been made. Glassnode cited several on-chain metrics and said in the weekly on-chain newsletter titled “Beginnings of a Bear Market Rally” that the rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum is not supported by strong transactional demand and “this rally has not yet seen a convincing follow through in observable demand activity.”
Bitcoin and major altcoins have started August on a cautious note. Could lower levels attract buyers and resume the recovery in the next few days? Read our analysis of the major cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin and the crypto sector received a boost after the United States Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75 basis points on July 27 but Chairman Jerome Powell said that future rate hikes will be decided based on the economic data points and the outlook for the eonomy. With the next Fed meeting only in September, traders will focus on various economic data that will be released in August. Traders expect that softening data may slow down the pace of rate hikes in the future.
After three consecutive negative monthly closes, Bitcoin made a comeback in July with a 16.8% gain, according to Coinglass data. In comparison, Ether had much better performance as it rallied more than 56% during the same period. This indicated that investors may have started accumulating at lower levels, anticipating that a bottom may be in place.
Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in a tweet on July 29 that “Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s “meeting by meeting” comment may mark the pivot for Bitcoin” to outperform most assets. In another tweet on July 31, McGlone said that Bitcoin may be on track to recover from the “steepest discount” to the 100- and 200-week moving averages. He added that the risk-to-reward ratio may be “tilted favourably for one of the greatest bull markets in history.”
However, not everyone is convinced that a bottom has been made. Glassnode cited several on-chain metrics and said in the weekly on-chain newsletter titled “Beginnings of a Bear Market Rally” that the rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum is not supported by strong transactional demand and “this rally has not yet seen a convincing follow through in observable demand activity.”
Bitcoin and major altcoins have started August on a cautious note. Could lower levels attract buyers and resume the recovery in the next few days? Read our analysis of the major cryptocurrencies to find out.
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